Dave Cameron from Fangraphs on the HOF chances for active players

[Goober]

Maybe I missed it but I don't think I saw Ryan Howard mentioned at all. How is this possible?

And Ichiro should be in that no-brainer category.
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I thought this was the top ten contracts thread...I spit out my drink.

Ryan Howard isn't very good and is on the downside of his career.

[NAHSTE]

Maybe I missed it but I don't think I saw Ryan Howard mentioned at all. How is this possible?

And Ichiro should be in that no-brainer category.
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Howard will have had a very short career since he was already 26 when he finally got an everyday job. Not to mention other than HRs and RBIs he's pretty worthless at this point, and he peaked statistically in his second full season.

[dell71]

I'm not saying Howard should or shouldn't get in but his chances appear at least as good as a number of players mentioned. I also think that as a lefty powerhitting 1b he could conceivably play 10 more years. And his value has always been tied to homers & rbi. He could get plenty more both. I understand how advanced statistical analysis has gotten but I doubt there'll ever be a time when 30+ hr 100+ rbi guy will be useless. Bottom line is even if you don't think he's going to the hall he should at least get mentioned before guys like Johnny Damon & Tim Hudson.
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[Warner2BruceTD]

Howard is so overrated, he's underrated.

Should be discussed at minimum, but this is from fangraphs, so yeah. Not a Howard friendly website.

[NAHSTE]

Bottom line is even if you don't think he's going to the hall he should at least get mentioned before guys like Johnny Damon & Tim Hudson.

I don't disagree that he could probably warrant a mention, but Todd Helton didn't even get mentioned and he's got a much better case than Howard will, IMO.

[Goober]

I'm not saying Howard should or shouldn't get in but his chances appear at least as good as a number of players mentioned. I also think that as a lefty powerhitting 1b he could conceivably play 10 more years. And his value has always been tied to homers & rbi. He could get plenty more both. I understand how advanced statistical analysis has gotten but I doubt there'll ever be a time when 30+ hr 100+ rbi guy will be useless. Bottom line is even if you don't think he's going to the hall he should at least get mentioned before guys like Johnny Damon & Tim Hudson.
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Even if Howard plays until he's 40, you're only looking at a guy with 450 HRs, and nothing else to his name. And that's being very optimistic. He's a one tool player, who had a short peak and is aging fast.

Johnny Damon is by far the better player in my opinion. Assuming he plays another two years, he could retire with 3000 hits, 250 HRs, 450 SBs, 50 WAR. Ryan Howard won't even sniff 40 WAR for his career. Likewise Tim Hudson is also a much better player with a significant period of success. Ryan Howard was nothing more then a flash in a pan.

[FedEx227]

You basically have Richie Sexson with gouty RBI numbers propped up by playing on a team with 3 other really, really good players. Howard is good at what he does, no doubt... but that doesn't make him anywhere near a hall of famer.

[FirstTimer]

How much resistance will Thome get since he played a lot of time at DH? Kind of tough to look past 600 home runs. Well liked guy. "Clean" rep. But for some reason I see the DH thing hurting him a lot for no real good reason.

I've also seen some people claim that if Halladay retired tomorrow he is a HOF'er. 188 career wins. 3-20 win seasons. I agree that I think as it continues he will be a lock..but can we really say he's a no brainer already?

[Warner2BruceTD]

If Roy Halladay isnt a lock Hall Of Famer, I give up.

[Goober]

How much resistance will Thome get since he played a lot of time at DH? Kind of tough to look past 600 home runs. Well liked guy. "Clean" rep. But for some reason I see the DH thing hurting him a lot for no real good reason.

I've also seen some people claim that if Halladay retired tomorrow he is a HOF'er. 188 career wins. 3-20 win seasons. I agree that I think as it continues he will be a lock..but can we really say he's a no brainer already?

I think Thome will get in. If I had a ballot, I'd vote for him every time, but you never know with these baseball writers. A good comparison for Thome, in my opinion is Edgar Martinez. Obviously Thome had a lot more power, but Martinez made up for it by hitting for a better average. Their career wOBA and WAR:
Thome: .406 wOBA, 71.5 WAR
Martinez: .405 wOBA, 69.9 WAR

Thome will obviously get a boost from voters with the big home run numbers, and the fact he didn't make the move to DH until late in his career. However Martinez is getting the shaft from voters right now, Peter Abraham wrote that he would still be just a borderline hall of famer if he would have played first or third his entire career (ha!). It doesn't look good for Martinez, but I think Thome will definitely get in.

As for Halladay, I'd vote for him today, just under the principle that he's the best pitcher of the decade. But I think there's also a very good chance that we see another five great years out of him. At which point we're talking about a guy with 250 wins and 100 WAR, along with his great peripheral stats.

[Warner2BruceTD]

Thome is Harmon Killebrew. He even looks like him.

I dont think Thome and Edgar are similar players at all.

[StealthShot]

Don't get how Ivan Rodriguez is such a lock when you know damn well he took some steroids and w/e else he could.

[Warner2BruceTD]

Don't get how Ivan Rodriguez is such a lock when you know damn well he took some steroids and w/e else he could.

I think Cameron's basis is that we know for certain that A-Rod juiced, while all of the others (including Pudge) would just be speculative.

All these fuckers did it, so to me I don't really care. Vote them all in.

[dell71]

Even if Howard plays until he's 40, you're only looking at a guy with 450 HRs, and nothing else to his name. And that's being very optimistic. He's a one tool player, who had a short peak and is aging fast.

Johnny Damon is by far the better player in my opinion. Assuming he plays another two years, he could retire with 3000 hits, 250 HRs, 450 SBs, 50 WAR. Ryan Howard won't even sniff 40 WAR for his career. Likewise Tim Hudson is also a much better player with a significant period of success. Ryan Howard was nothing more then a flash in a pan.

Again, I'm not arguing that he should or will be in or out. Admittedly, if he's washed up as you seem to think then he won't do much more and he shouldn't get any HOF consideration. All I'm saying is that to this point his accomplishments warrant a mention in an article like this. He won a ROY, an MVP, led the league in HR twice, RBI 3 times and has been top 10 in MVP voting for 6 years running. I can't look at all those things and say 'oh, his WAR sucks and so does he.' To me, it just doesn't work that way. Meanwhile, a guy like Damon has played twice as long and not once has anyone thought he was an elite player. He'll compile a lot of nice stats and just may get to 3,000 hits and sneak into the Hall. Has anyone in the last 17 years since he's been in the majors had an objective conversation about who the 5 best outfielders in baseball were and said Johnny Damon? I really don't think so. Therefore, on a list discussing who "might" get in it makes no sense to me that a guy considered one of the best in the game by a number of people for a pretty decent stretch does not get mentioned but a guy who was never elite does.

[Warner2BruceTD]

Yeah, "flash in the pan" is a pretty rough assessment of Howard. He is/was better than that.