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We spend a lot of time looking ahead to the MLB draft on Insider, but other than reacting to it in the immediate aftermath, we very rarely ever look back. So as we get set for the 2012 draft season to really heat up, I decided to go back 10 years and revisit the 2002 draft, aka the "Moneyball" draft, to see how different it would look with the benefit of hindsight.
Other than its ties to "Moneyball," the 2002 draft is probably best remembered for the massive gaffe the Pirates committed with the first pick, choosing (apparently at owner Kevin McClatchy's behest) a safe college arm, Bryan Bullington, over the high-upside high school player atop most draft boards, B.J. Upton. But the big story today is that the best player to come out of that draft wasn't taken until the third round.
This redraft is based on two major criteria: the players' careers to date, and my projections of any value they still have to offer (although the list does include two players whose careers are likely over). I did not account for the player's signability at the time, nor did I consider a team's preference for high school or college players, pitchers versus position players, etc. -- this analysis is based purely on talent.
Please note that we included only players who were drafted in 2002 and subsequently signed with the club that selected them. Players like Jacoby Ellsbury, for example, who were drafted out of high school but decided to attend college, were not considered. (For the record, Ellsbury was taken in the 23rd round by the Tampa Bay Rays and decided to attend Oregon State instead of signing.)
Also of note is that certain teams did not have a first-round pick in 2002 because they lost it by virtue of signing a Type A free agent. The A's, on the other hand, had multiple first-rounders.
For a look at the 2002 first round, click here.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Curtis Granderson, OF, Illinois-Chicago
Granderson put up impressive numbers at a tiny, cold-weather school, engendering plenty of skepticism at the time over whether his bat would translate, but I think he also came out a year or two too early to catch the rise of statistical analysis in draft rooms. He's turned into a much better hitter than anyone anticipated, especially after swing changes made with Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long, and leads all 2002 draftees in FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement (fWAR) and ranks second in Baseball Reference's version (bWAR). (Note: FanGraphs relies more on secondary stats -- such as batting average on balls in play -- for its metric.)
Granderson's actual draft spot: No. 80 (third round)
Pittsburgh's '02 pick: Bryan Bullington, RHP, Ball State
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Brian McCann, C, Duluth (Ga.) HS
McCann is a consistently above-average player who'll occasionally jump up to star-caliber performance but has yet to post a truly down season at the plate since becoming a regular in 2006. He gets on base, hits for power and is capable enough defensively to remain behind the plate for now. The main question on McCann is how much catching remains in his career, with more than 900 games behind the dish already under his belt, but what he's produced to date puts him right behind Granderson on the board.
McCann's actual draft spot: No. 64 (second round)
Tampa Bay's '02 pick: B.J. Upton, SS, Greenbrier Christian Academy (Va.) HS
3. Cincinnati Reds
Cole Hamels, LHP, Rancho Bernardo (Calif.) HS
Hamels isn't the top pitcher per either flavor of WAR -- it's notable, by the way, that the top five pitchers from this draft in WAR are all high school products -- but it's pretty close either way, and I'm very bullish on Hamels' ability to continue to produce at high levels well into his 30s. Hamels likely would have gone higher in the 2002 draft were it not for an arm fracture he suffered earlier in his high school career, an unusual injury that scared several teams off on medical grounds, yet despite that and some trouble staying healthy in the minors, he's been extremely durable since reaching the majors in 2006.
Hamels' actual draft spot: No. 17 (first round)
Cincinnati's '02 pick: Chris Gruler, P, Liberty Union (Calif.) HS
4. Baltimore Orioles
Matt Cain, RHP, Houston HS (Germantown, Tenn.)
Cain, coming off five straight 200-inning seasons, was actually picked in a reasonable spot for a high school pitcher of his ilk: He was projectable, flashing plus velocity and likely to grow into a consistent mid-90s fastball, but with all the risk associated with prep arms at the time.
Cain's actual draft spot: No. 25 (first round)
Baltimore's '02 pick: Adam Loewen, LHP, Fraser Valley Christian HS (Surrey, British Columbia)
5. Washington Nationals (Expos)
Joey Votto, 1B, Richview Collegiate Institute (Toronto)
The main knock on Votto in high school was that he was a catcher who couldn't catch, meaning he had to move to first base -- and I don't think anyone thought his bat was close to this good, especially not in terms of power. He also faced the typical questions about the caliber of competition faced by any cold-weather prep hitter.
Votto's actual draft spot: No. 44 (second round)
Montreal's '02 pick: Clint Everts, P, Cypress Falls (Texas) HS
6. Kansas City Royals
Zack Greinke, RHP, Apopka (Fla.) HS
I remember hearing Allard Baird, K.C.'s GM at the time, say that his club wanted a college arm with this pick but felt strongly that Greinke was as advanced and as polished as a college arm despite being a high school player. (I'm hearing, and have seen, similar things from Baltimore's Dylan Bundy.) Greinke fit the college-starter career path early, reaching the majors a bit more than 22 months after signing, but personal problems pushed his timeline to success back a few years. He actually leads this draft class in fWAR, but a consistent habit of allowing more runs than his peripherals would indicate has him third in bWAR.
Greinke's actual draft spot: No. 6 (first round)
Kansas City's '02 pick: Greinke
7. Milwaukee Brewers
Jon Lester, LHP, Bellarmine HS (Tacoma, Wash.)
Lester was a projectable high school lefty who didn't have the knockout breaking ball to make him a first-rounder; he didn't develop the cutter until after signing, and his fastball eventually added about two full grades of velocity. The Red Sox wouldn't take another prep arm in the first three rounds until 2005, when they took Michael Bowden in the sandwich round.
Lester's actual draft spot: No. 57 (second round),
Milwaukee's '02 pick: Prince Fielder, 1B, Eau Gallie (Fla.) HS
8. Detroit Tigers
Prince Fielder, 1B, Eau Gallie (Fla.) HS
He's produced pretty much as advertised: It's huge raw power with good feel to hit and strong plate discipline but little to no value on defense or on the bases.
Fielder's actual draft spot: No. 7 (first round)
Detroit's '02 pick: Scott Moore, SS, Cypress (Calif.) HS
9. Colorado Rockies
B.J. Upton, SS, Greenbrier Christian Academy (Va.) HS
Upton has never quite fulfilled expectations with his bat outside of short stretches, but he's a plus defender in center who is just entering his age-27 season and could bump his production another level this year, assuming his back cooperates. Of everyone on this list, he has the best chance to end up even higher if we redo this exercise in 2017.
Upton's actual draft spot: No. 2 (first round)
Colorado's '02 pick: Jeff Francis, LHP, University of British Columbia
10. Texas Rangers
Nick Swisher, OF, Ohio State
This was the best pick by far in the vaunted "Moneyball" draft class. Swisher, who posted a .481 OBP over his last two years in college, has been a consistent high-on-base guy for all of his (non-Chicago) major league career. He has moderate power and solid corner-outfield defense, skills that should continue to play for him for several more seasons.
Swisher's actual draft spot: No. 16 (first round)
Texas' '02 pick: Drew Meyer, SS, South Carolina
11. Miami Marlins
Jeremy Guthrie, RHP, Stanford
A rare pitcher to escape the Stanford injury curse -- perhaps because he was 23 years old in his final year, when he averaged just less than eight innings per start for the Cardinal's arm grinders -- Guthrie has been a durable midrotation starter since Baltimore signed him after the 2006 season.
Guthrie's actual draft spot: No. 22 (first round)
Florida's '02 pick: Jeremy Hermida, OF, Wheeler (Ga.) HS
12. Los Angeles Angels
Howie Kendrick, 2B, Saint Johns River State College
Here we have our first double-digit-round selection -- Kendrick hit .360 in his minor league career but was never patient enough to carry that kind of elite average to the majors. Still, he's a career .292 hitter with moderate power at a premium position, which makes him a valuable commodity.
Kendrick's actual draft spot: No. 294 (10th round)
Los Angeles' '02 pick: Joe Saunders, P, Virginia Tech
13. San Diego Padres
Russell Martin, C, Chipola (Fla.) JC
Martin was an infielder with the body and arm strength to potentially move behind the plate, becoming one of the more successful such conversions in the past few years and possibly giving him more longevity than most catchers into his early 30s because he didn't wreck his knees catching in high school and junior college. On the flip side, his offensive value is almost entirely due to the fact that he catches, so if he ever has to move from the position, he'll be finished.
Martin's actual draft spot: No. 511 (17th round)
San Diego's '02 pick: Khalil Greene, SS, Clemson
14. Toronto Blue Jays
Brandon McCarthy, RHP
Selected one spot ahead of Russ Martin -- the 17th round was quite fertile in 2002, producing four big leaguers in total -- McCarthy battled injuries and went through two organizations before remaking himself in Oakland two years ago as a ground-ball/control guy. He wasn't that heavily scouted in high school and was thought to have a strong commitment to Tennessee, but the White Sox did a great job in signing him.
McCarthy's actual draft spot: No. 510 (17th round)
Toronto's '02 pick: Russ Adams, SS, North Carolina
15. New York Mets
Denard Span, OF, Catholic HS (Tampa)
Span would have gone ninth but wouldn't sign for what the Rockies were offering, so they cut a deal with Jeff Francis instead, after which Span slid to No. 20 and signed for less than he would have gotten from Colorado. His plate discipline has improved to the point where he's a solid-to-average regular in center who should be able to handle the position for several more years, but he probably won't ever be a star.
Span's actual draft spot: No. 20 (first round)
New York's '02 pick: Scott Kazmir, LHP, Cypress Falls (Texas) HS
16. Oakland Athletics*
Josh Johnson, RHP, Jenks HS (Tulsa, Okla.)
Interesting thought experiment: What if this is it for Johnson? Assume he'll never be healthy enough again to be an effective major league pitcher. He's still racked up 18-19 wins above replacement in his career, putting him in the top 15 in both versions of WAR from this draft, with most of that value concentrated in three very good years. Three seasons of serious value doesn't sound like a lot, but it's more than teams get from the typical late first-round pick and far more than the Marlins could have hoped for from the 113th pick.
Johnson's actual draft spot: No. 113 (fourth round)
Oakland's '02 pick: Swisher
*This pick was compensation from the Red Sox for signing Johnny Damon.
17. Philadelphia Phillies
Joe Blanton, RHP, Kentucky
Boring, but durable and modestly productive until 2011. Few teams aim for a league-average starter in the first round, but that's often better than what they get in the end.
Blanton's actual draft spot: No. 24 (first round)
Philadelphia's '02 pick: Hamels
18. Chicago White Sox
Nyjer Morgan, OF, Walla Walla CC
It took Morgan a long time to produce real major league value, but he's made himself into a very good defensive center fielder who can slap the ball enough to avoid being a zero at the plate. He seems like a strong bet to post a few more 2-3 WAR seasons before he eventually has to move out of center.
Morgan's actual draft spot: No. 973 (33rd round)
Chicago's '02 pick: Royce Ring, LHP, San Diego State
19. Los Angeles Dodgers
Joe Saunders, LHP, Virginia Tech
He blew out his shoulder right away, missing the 2003 season, but ended up posting five seasons of capable back-end work, although his results never matched his stuff when his stuff was still good.
Saunders' actual draft spot: No. 12 (first round)
Los Angeles' '02 pick: James Loney, 1B, Elkins HS (Missouri City, Texas)
20. Minnesota Twins
Jeff Francoeur, OF, Parkview (Ga.) HS
The Braves' scouting staff was in love with Francoeur leading up to the draft, and Francoeur going before Atlanta's selection might have led to mass ritual suicide in the team's draft room. He's never been half the player he was reported to be during that insanely fluky rookie year in 2005 but could probably play a long time as a part-time player, serving as a lefty-mashing right fielder who's at least average defensively.
Francoeur's actual draft spot: No. 23 (first round)
Minnesota's '02 pick: Span
21. Chicago Cubs
Scott Kazmir, LHP, Cypress Falls (Texas) HS
In this alternate universe, the Mets actually trade Denard Span for Victor Zambrano, not Kazmir. Kazmir was worked hard when younger, had a rough delivery and threw a lot of breaking balls, ending his career before he reached 30. But when he was good, he was electric. Unfortunately for Angels fans, his battery ran out right around the time the club traded for him.
Kazmir's actual draft spot: No. 15 (first round)
Chicago's '02 pick: Bobby Brownlie, RHP, Rutgers
22. Cleveland Indians
Jeff Francis, LHP, University of British Columbia
Francis is probably finished adding value to major league teams, but there's at least a small chance he ekes out a few more seasons above replacement level because he's left-handed, throws a ton of strikes and sort of gets ground balls. You could also catch him with a Kleenex at this point, which isn't a great formula for long-term success.
Francis' actual draft spot: No. 9 (first round)
Cleveland's '02 pick: Guthrie
23. Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Broxton, RHP, Burke County HS (Waynesboro, Ga.)
Good news for the Braves: They end up with a Georgia prep kid anyway in our alternate universe. Broxton was pegged as a future reliever at the time he was drafted and had a pretty good run in the Dodgers' 'pen before all that effort wore him down, costing him most of the 2011 season. I think he could add a few wins above replacement to his total over the next five years if he has the health to do so.
Broxton's actual draft spot: No. 60 (second round)
Atlanta's '02 pick: Francoeur
24. Oakland Athletics*
James Loney, 1B, Elkins HS (Missouri City, Texas)
It always felt like Loney never justified the first-round pick, but the sad truth is that he did -- just barely, which is why it feels disappointing. First basemen who don't hit for power aren't generally in high demand, and it's something of a surprise that the Dodgers have stuck with him this long. Perhaps someone will put him back on the mound for a second act, since most teams back in 2002 had him ranked higher as a pitcher.
Loney's actual draft spot: No. 19 (first round)
Oakland's '02 pick: Blanton
*This pick was compensation from the Yankees for signing Jason Giambi.
25. San Francisco Giants*
Khalil Greene, SS, Clemson
I was working for the Blue Jays in 2002, and we would have taken Greene at No. 14 had the Padres not selected him right before us. Greene turned out to be a great defensive shortstop with surprising pop and a terrible propensity to chase the slider away. That is, until he retired before the 2010 season after battling a mental health issue in 2009.
Greene's actual draft spot: No. 13 (first round)
San Francisco's '02 pick: Cain
26. Oakland Athletics
Jason Hammel, RHP, Treasure Valley CC
Hammel didn't really return any value until 2009 but then had two seasons as an above-average starter before returning to Earth last year. I like his chances to remain above replacement level for a few more years but would be surprised if he replicates what he did in those two years in Colorado.
Hammel's actual draft spot: No. 284 (10th round)
Oakland's '02 pick: John McCurdy, SS, Maryland
27. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jesse Crain, RHP, Houston
Crain tore through the minors in two years; in his one full season there, 2003, he punched out 114 and walked 23 in 85 relief innings across three levels, finishing in Triple-A, and has turned in five competent but never spectacular relief seasons since then, with just one down year and one lost to a major shoulder injury. I see no reason he couldn't continue producing at that level for a few more seasons.
Crain's actual draft spot: No. 61 (second round)
Arizona's '02 pick: Sergio Santos, SS, Mater Dei HS (Santa Ana, Calif.)
28. Seattle Mariners
Randy Wells, RHP, Southwestern Illinois College
Our first selection with a four-digit pick, Wells was drafted as a catcher and didn't convert full time to pitching until 2004. He turned in two solid seasons in the Cubs' rotation, was awful last year, and hasn't started out 2012 any better, but even if this is it for Wells' career in the majors, he's already in the top 30 for WAR (both versions) for his draft class.
Wells' actual draft spot: No. 1,143 (38th round)
Seattle's '02 pick: John Mayberry Jr., OF, Rockhurst HS (Kansas City) -- did not sign
29. Houston Astros
Dave Bush, RHP, Wake Forest
A catcher turned reliever in college who became a starter in pro ball, Bush throws strikes with an assortment of pitches that have never really missed enough bats, and he hasn't been comfortably above replacement level since 2008. He's still starting in Triple-A, but I wonder if there would be a career extension here if he returned to short relief work.
Bush's actual draft spot: No. 55 (second round)
Houston's '02 pick: Derick Grigsby, Northeast Texas CC
30. Oakland Athletics*
Sergio Santos, SS, Mater Dei HS (Santa Ana, Calif.)
Santos was seen as an overdraft at the time of his selection, and his failure to reach the majors as a position player seems to bear that out. Assuming his current bout of arm trouble isn't serious, however, he has a tremendous future as a reliever and should move a few spots up the WAR rankings (he's currently 51st and 55th in bWAR and fWAR, respectively) over the next several seasons.
Santos' actual draft spot: No. 27 (first round)
Oakland's '02 pick: Ben Fritz, RHP, Fresno State
*This pick was compensation from the Cardinals for signing Jason Isringhausen.
Other than its ties to "Moneyball," the 2002 draft is probably best remembered for the massive gaffe the Pirates committed with the first pick, choosing (apparently at owner Kevin McClatchy's behest) a safe college arm, Bryan Bullington, over the high-upside high school player atop most draft boards, B.J. Upton. But the big story today is that the best player to come out of that draft wasn't taken until the third round.
This redraft is based on two major criteria: the players' careers to date, and my projections of any value they still have to offer (although the list does include two players whose careers are likely over). I did not account for the player's signability at the time, nor did I consider a team's preference for high school or college players, pitchers versus position players, etc. -- this analysis is based purely on talent.
Please note that we included only players who were drafted in 2002 and subsequently signed with the club that selected them. Players like Jacoby Ellsbury, for example, who were drafted out of high school but decided to attend college, were not considered. (For the record, Ellsbury was taken in the 23rd round by the Tampa Bay Rays and decided to attend Oregon State instead of signing.)
Also of note is that certain teams did not have a first-round pick in 2002 because they lost it by virtue of signing a Type A free agent. The A's, on the other hand, had multiple first-rounders.
For a look at the 2002 first round, click here.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Curtis Granderson, OF, Illinois-Chicago
Granderson put up impressive numbers at a tiny, cold-weather school, engendering plenty of skepticism at the time over whether his bat would translate, but I think he also came out a year or two too early to catch the rise of statistical analysis in draft rooms. He's turned into a much better hitter than anyone anticipated, especially after swing changes made with Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long, and leads all 2002 draftees in FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement (fWAR) and ranks second in Baseball Reference's version (bWAR). (Note: FanGraphs relies more on secondary stats -- such as batting average on balls in play -- for its metric.)
Granderson's actual draft spot: No. 80 (third round)
Pittsburgh's '02 pick: Bryan Bullington, RHP, Ball State
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Brian McCann, C, Duluth (Ga.) HS
McCann is a consistently above-average player who'll occasionally jump up to star-caliber performance but has yet to post a truly down season at the plate since becoming a regular in 2006. He gets on base, hits for power and is capable enough defensively to remain behind the plate for now. The main question on McCann is how much catching remains in his career, with more than 900 games behind the dish already under his belt, but what he's produced to date puts him right behind Granderson on the board.
McCann's actual draft spot: No. 64 (second round)
Tampa Bay's '02 pick: B.J. Upton, SS, Greenbrier Christian Academy (Va.) HS
3. Cincinnati Reds
Cole Hamels, LHP, Rancho Bernardo (Calif.) HS
Hamels isn't the top pitcher per either flavor of WAR -- it's notable, by the way, that the top five pitchers from this draft in WAR are all high school products -- but it's pretty close either way, and I'm very bullish on Hamels' ability to continue to produce at high levels well into his 30s. Hamels likely would have gone higher in the 2002 draft were it not for an arm fracture he suffered earlier in his high school career, an unusual injury that scared several teams off on medical grounds, yet despite that and some trouble staying healthy in the minors, he's been extremely durable since reaching the majors in 2006.
Hamels' actual draft spot: No. 17 (first round)
Cincinnati's '02 pick: Chris Gruler, P, Liberty Union (Calif.) HS
4. Baltimore Orioles
Matt Cain, RHP, Houston HS (Germantown, Tenn.)
Cain, coming off five straight 200-inning seasons, was actually picked in a reasonable spot for a high school pitcher of his ilk: He was projectable, flashing plus velocity and likely to grow into a consistent mid-90s fastball, but with all the risk associated with prep arms at the time.
Cain's actual draft spot: No. 25 (first round)
Baltimore's '02 pick: Adam Loewen, LHP, Fraser Valley Christian HS (Surrey, British Columbia)
5. Washington Nationals (Expos)
Joey Votto, 1B, Richview Collegiate Institute (Toronto)
The main knock on Votto in high school was that he was a catcher who couldn't catch, meaning he had to move to first base -- and I don't think anyone thought his bat was close to this good, especially not in terms of power. He also faced the typical questions about the caliber of competition faced by any cold-weather prep hitter.
Votto's actual draft spot: No. 44 (second round)
Montreal's '02 pick: Clint Everts, P, Cypress Falls (Texas) HS
6. Kansas City Royals
Zack Greinke, RHP, Apopka (Fla.) HS
I remember hearing Allard Baird, K.C.'s GM at the time, say that his club wanted a college arm with this pick but felt strongly that Greinke was as advanced and as polished as a college arm despite being a high school player. (I'm hearing, and have seen, similar things from Baltimore's Dylan Bundy.) Greinke fit the college-starter career path early, reaching the majors a bit more than 22 months after signing, but personal problems pushed his timeline to success back a few years. He actually leads this draft class in fWAR, but a consistent habit of allowing more runs than his peripherals would indicate has him third in bWAR.
Greinke's actual draft spot: No. 6 (first round)
Kansas City's '02 pick: Greinke
7. Milwaukee Brewers
Jon Lester, LHP, Bellarmine HS (Tacoma, Wash.)
Lester was a projectable high school lefty who didn't have the knockout breaking ball to make him a first-rounder; he didn't develop the cutter until after signing, and his fastball eventually added about two full grades of velocity. The Red Sox wouldn't take another prep arm in the first three rounds until 2005, when they took Michael Bowden in the sandwich round.
Lester's actual draft spot: No. 57 (second round),
Milwaukee's '02 pick: Prince Fielder, 1B, Eau Gallie (Fla.) HS
8. Detroit Tigers
Prince Fielder, 1B, Eau Gallie (Fla.) HS
He's produced pretty much as advertised: It's huge raw power with good feel to hit and strong plate discipline but little to no value on defense or on the bases.
Fielder's actual draft spot: No. 7 (first round)
Detroit's '02 pick: Scott Moore, SS, Cypress (Calif.) HS
9. Colorado Rockies
B.J. Upton, SS, Greenbrier Christian Academy (Va.) HS
Upton has never quite fulfilled expectations with his bat outside of short stretches, but he's a plus defender in center who is just entering his age-27 season and could bump his production another level this year, assuming his back cooperates. Of everyone on this list, he has the best chance to end up even higher if we redo this exercise in 2017.
Upton's actual draft spot: No. 2 (first round)
Colorado's '02 pick: Jeff Francis, LHP, University of British Columbia
10. Texas Rangers
Nick Swisher, OF, Ohio State
This was the best pick by far in the vaunted "Moneyball" draft class. Swisher, who posted a .481 OBP over his last two years in college, has been a consistent high-on-base guy for all of his (non-Chicago) major league career. He has moderate power and solid corner-outfield defense, skills that should continue to play for him for several more seasons.
Swisher's actual draft spot: No. 16 (first round)
Texas' '02 pick: Drew Meyer, SS, South Carolina
11. Miami Marlins
Jeremy Guthrie, RHP, Stanford
A rare pitcher to escape the Stanford injury curse -- perhaps because he was 23 years old in his final year, when he averaged just less than eight innings per start for the Cardinal's arm grinders -- Guthrie has been a durable midrotation starter since Baltimore signed him after the 2006 season.
Guthrie's actual draft spot: No. 22 (first round)
Florida's '02 pick: Jeremy Hermida, OF, Wheeler (Ga.) HS
12. Los Angeles Angels
Howie Kendrick, 2B, Saint Johns River State College
Here we have our first double-digit-round selection -- Kendrick hit .360 in his minor league career but was never patient enough to carry that kind of elite average to the majors. Still, he's a career .292 hitter with moderate power at a premium position, which makes him a valuable commodity.
Kendrick's actual draft spot: No. 294 (10th round)
Los Angeles' '02 pick: Joe Saunders, P, Virginia Tech
13. San Diego Padres
Russell Martin, C, Chipola (Fla.) JC
Martin was an infielder with the body and arm strength to potentially move behind the plate, becoming one of the more successful such conversions in the past few years and possibly giving him more longevity than most catchers into his early 30s because he didn't wreck his knees catching in high school and junior college. On the flip side, his offensive value is almost entirely due to the fact that he catches, so if he ever has to move from the position, he'll be finished.
Martin's actual draft spot: No. 511 (17th round)
San Diego's '02 pick: Khalil Greene, SS, Clemson
14. Toronto Blue Jays
Brandon McCarthy, RHP
Selected one spot ahead of Russ Martin -- the 17th round was quite fertile in 2002, producing four big leaguers in total -- McCarthy battled injuries and went through two organizations before remaking himself in Oakland two years ago as a ground-ball/control guy. He wasn't that heavily scouted in high school and was thought to have a strong commitment to Tennessee, but the White Sox did a great job in signing him.
McCarthy's actual draft spot: No. 510 (17th round)
Toronto's '02 pick: Russ Adams, SS, North Carolina
15. New York Mets
Denard Span, OF, Catholic HS (Tampa)
Span would have gone ninth but wouldn't sign for what the Rockies were offering, so they cut a deal with Jeff Francis instead, after which Span slid to No. 20 and signed for less than he would have gotten from Colorado. His plate discipline has improved to the point where he's a solid-to-average regular in center who should be able to handle the position for several more years, but he probably won't ever be a star.
Span's actual draft spot: No. 20 (first round)
New York's '02 pick: Scott Kazmir, LHP, Cypress Falls (Texas) HS
16. Oakland Athletics*
Josh Johnson, RHP, Jenks HS (Tulsa, Okla.)
Interesting thought experiment: What if this is it for Johnson? Assume he'll never be healthy enough again to be an effective major league pitcher. He's still racked up 18-19 wins above replacement in his career, putting him in the top 15 in both versions of WAR from this draft, with most of that value concentrated in three very good years. Three seasons of serious value doesn't sound like a lot, but it's more than teams get from the typical late first-round pick and far more than the Marlins could have hoped for from the 113th pick.
Johnson's actual draft spot: No. 113 (fourth round)
Oakland's '02 pick: Swisher
*This pick was compensation from the Red Sox for signing Johnny Damon.
17. Philadelphia Phillies
Joe Blanton, RHP, Kentucky
Boring, but durable and modestly productive until 2011. Few teams aim for a league-average starter in the first round, but that's often better than what they get in the end.
Blanton's actual draft spot: No. 24 (first round)
Philadelphia's '02 pick: Hamels
18. Chicago White Sox
Nyjer Morgan, OF, Walla Walla CC
It took Morgan a long time to produce real major league value, but he's made himself into a very good defensive center fielder who can slap the ball enough to avoid being a zero at the plate. He seems like a strong bet to post a few more 2-3 WAR seasons before he eventually has to move out of center.
Morgan's actual draft spot: No. 973 (33rd round)
Chicago's '02 pick: Royce Ring, LHP, San Diego State
19. Los Angeles Dodgers
Joe Saunders, LHP, Virginia Tech
He blew out his shoulder right away, missing the 2003 season, but ended up posting five seasons of capable back-end work, although his results never matched his stuff when his stuff was still good.
Saunders' actual draft spot: No. 12 (first round)
Los Angeles' '02 pick: James Loney, 1B, Elkins HS (Missouri City, Texas)
20. Minnesota Twins
Jeff Francoeur, OF, Parkview (Ga.) HS
The Braves' scouting staff was in love with Francoeur leading up to the draft, and Francoeur going before Atlanta's selection might have led to mass ritual suicide in the team's draft room. He's never been half the player he was reported to be during that insanely fluky rookie year in 2005 but could probably play a long time as a part-time player, serving as a lefty-mashing right fielder who's at least average defensively.
Francoeur's actual draft spot: No. 23 (first round)
Minnesota's '02 pick: Span
21. Chicago Cubs
Scott Kazmir, LHP, Cypress Falls (Texas) HS
In this alternate universe, the Mets actually trade Denard Span for Victor Zambrano, not Kazmir. Kazmir was worked hard when younger, had a rough delivery and threw a lot of breaking balls, ending his career before he reached 30. But when he was good, he was electric. Unfortunately for Angels fans, his battery ran out right around the time the club traded for him.
Kazmir's actual draft spot: No. 15 (first round)
Chicago's '02 pick: Bobby Brownlie, RHP, Rutgers
22. Cleveland Indians
Jeff Francis, LHP, University of British Columbia
Francis is probably finished adding value to major league teams, but there's at least a small chance he ekes out a few more seasons above replacement level because he's left-handed, throws a ton of strikes and sort of gets ground balls. You could also catch him with a Kleenex at this point, which isn't a great formula for long-term success.
Francis' actual draft spot: No. 9 (first round)
Cleveland's '02 pick: Guthrie
23. Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Broxton, RHP, Burke County HS (Waynesboro, Ga.)
Good news for the Braves: They end up with a Georgia prep kid anyway in our alternate universe. Broxton was pegged as a future reliever at the time he was drafted and had a pretty good run in the Dodgers' 'pen before all that effort wore him down, costing him most of the 2011 season. I think he could add a few wins above replacement to his total over the next five years if he has the health to do so.
Broxton's actual draft spot: No. 60 (second round)
Atlanta's '02 pick: Francoeur
24. Oakland Athletics*
James Loney, 1B, Elkins HS (Missouri City, Texas)
It always felt like Loney never justified the first-round pick, but the sad truth is that he did -- just barely, which is why it feels disappointing. First basemen who don't hit for power aren't generally in high demand, and it's something of a surprise that the Dodgers have stuck with him this long. Perhaps someone will put him back on the mound for a second act, since most teams back in 2002 had him ranked higher as a pitcher.
Loney's actual draft spot: No. 19 (first round)
Oakland's '02 pick: Blanton
*This pick was compensation from the Yankees for signing Jason Giambi.
25. San Francisco Giants*
Khalil Greene, SS, Clemson
I was working for the Blue Jays in 2002, and we would have taken Greene at No. 14 had the Padres not selected him right before us. Greene turned out to be a great defensive shortstop with surprising pop and a terrible propensity to chase the slider away. That is, until he retired before the 2010 season after battling a mental health issue in 2009.
Greene's actual draft spot: No. 13 (first round)
San Francisco's '02 pick: Cain
26. Oakland Athletics
Jason Hammel, RHP, Treasure Valley CC
Hammel didn't really return any value until 2009 but then had two seasons as an above-average starter before returning to Earth last year. I like his chances to remain above replacement level for a few more years but would be surprised if he replicates what he did in those two years in Colorado.
Hammel's actual draft spot: No. 284 (10th round)
Oakland's '02 pick: John McCurdy, SS, Maryland
27. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jesse Crain, RHP, Houston
Crain tore through the minors in two years; in his one full season there, 2003, he punched out 114 and walked 23 in 85 relief innings across three levels, finishing in Triple-A, and has turned in five competent but never spectacular relief seasons since then, with just one down year and one lost to a major shoulder injury. I see no reason he couldn't continue producing at that level for a few more seasons.
Crain's actual draft spot: No. 61 (second round)
Arizona's '02 pick: Sergio Santos, SS, Mater Dei HS (Santa Ana, Calif.)
28. Seattle Mariners
Randy Wells, RHP, Southwestern Illinois College
Our first selection with a four-digit pick, Wells was drafted as a catcher and didn't convert full time to pitching until 2004. He turned in two solid seasons in the Cubs' rotation, was awful last year, and hasn't started out 2012 any better, but even if this is it for Wells' career in the majors, he's already in the top 30 for WAR (both versions) for his draft class.
Wells' actual draft spot: No. 1,143 (38th round)
Seattle's '02 pick: John Mayberry Jr., OF, Rockhurst HS (Kansas City) -- did not sign
29. Houston Astros
Dave Bush, RHP, Wake Forest
A catcher turned reliever in college who became a starter in pro ball, Bush throws strikes with an assortment of pitches that have never really missed enough bats, and he hasn't been comfortably above replacement level since 2008. He's still starting in Triple-A, but I wonder if there would be a career extension here if he returned to short relief work.
Bush's actual draft spot: No. 55 (second round)
Houston's '02 pick: Derick Grigsby, Northeast Texas CC
30. Oakland Athletics*
Sergio Santos, SS, Mater Dei HS (Santa Ana, Calif.)
Santos was seen as an overdraft at the time of his selection, and his failure to reach the majors as a position player seems to bear that out. Assuming his current bout of arm trouble isn't serious, however, he has a tremendous future as a reliever and should move a few spots up the WAR rankings (he's currently 51st and 55th in bWAR and fWAR, respectively) over the next several seasons.
Santos' actual draft spot: No. 27 (first round)
Oakland's '02 pick: Ben Fritz, RHP, Fresno State
*This pick was compensation from the Cardinals for signing Jason Isringhausen.