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Laurent Robinson
It's not easy to have a quiet season with a Dallas Cowboys team that's always under the media microscope, but Robinson managed it. Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are the big-name receivers, but Robinson is the one who put up the biggest numbers. Not bad for a guy who wasn't even on the team when the season started. Robinson showed potential as a rookie with the 2007 Falcons, but he struggled with injuries through another year in Atlanta and two more in St. Louis. The Chargers cut him during training camp, and he found his way to a Dallas team that needed a third receiver. The result: 54 catches for 858 yards and 11 touchdowns. That last number was third in the league for wide receivers. Robinson was thrown only seven more passes than Austin but gained 279 more yards.
As a result, Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (explained here) scored Robinson's season as 43.1 percent better than what we would expect from an average wide receiver. Robinson had the fifth-highest DVOA of the last 20 years for a player with a minimum of 60 pass targets. He actually was only third for this season, because Jordy Nelson and Malcom Floyd were also phenomenal and had the two highest ratings we've ever measured, but that shouldn't take away from the great season Robinson had.
Ryan Mathews
The Chargers have spent two years trying to figure out who should get more carries in their running back committee: Mathews or Mike Tolbert. Based on 2011, the answer should clearly be Mathews. In his second year, Mathews carried the ball 222 times for 1,091 yards and six touchdowns. He finished fifth in total rushing value, according to Football Outsiders' DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement), behind only LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marshawn Lynch and Jonathan Stewart. Our DVOA metric has him 10th in value per run among backs with at least 100 carries. By comparison, Tolbert was 37th in total rushing value and 34th in value per play. Mathews was also excellent as a receiver in 2011. He was third in receiving value (DYAR) among running backs, and fourth in value per play (DVOA) among backs with at least 25 passes. His 85 percent catch rate was the highest for any back with at least 15 passes.
Larry Fitzgerald
Remember this guy? A couple of years ago, he was generally considered the best wide receiver in football. Then he had a couple of seasons with subpar quarterbacks and he started to drift off the radar. He made the Pro Bowl this year, but his fabulous 2011 season may still be underappreciated. Fitzgerald had 1,411 yards -- 20 short of his career high -- with Kevin Kolb and John Skelton as his quarterbacks. He averaged a career-high 17.6 yards per reception; till this year, he hadn't averaged more than 15 yards per reception.
With the FO advanced stats, what stands out is how far ahead Fitzgerald was compared to his teammates. Fitzgerald was 31st in DVOA among receivers with at least 50 passes. Early Doucet was 69th and Andre Roberts was 77th, playing with the same quarterbacks in the same offense and drawing single coverage because opponents were always concentrating on stopping Fitzgerald. By the way, Arizona also played one of the league's tougher schedules of opposing pass defenses; Fitzgerald would have done even better against an average schedule.
Sean Weatherspoon
Atlanta's weakside linebacker, Weatherspoon really blossomed in his second season. Weatherspoon was involved in 16 percent of Atlanta's total defensive plays (tackles or assists), which was the third-highest figure for an outside linebacker behind Carolina's James Anderson and Minnesota's Chad Greenway. Weatherspoon was particularly strong when it came to stopping the run, and he made his average tackle on run plays after a gain of just 2 yards -- ranked second among 4-3 outside linebackers. Weatherspoon was also part of a Falcons linebacker group that played excellent pass defense. The Falcons ranked first in the league in DVOA against tight ends and seventh in DVOA against running backs as receivers.
Denver's defensive tackles (Marcus Thomas, Brodrick Bunkley and Ryan McBean)
Denver's late-season surge was partly due to Tebow Time miracle making, but it was also partly due to improved defense. The Broncos allowed 13 or fewer points in five of their final eight games. The Broncos' pass defense got a lot of attention, especially with the great rookie season from linebacker Von Miller, but their run defense was even more impressive. In the final FO ratings, the Broncos rank 24th in pass defense but 13th in run defense, and the strength of that run defense was right up front. We use a stat called adjusted line yards to separate runs at different levels so you can see when yardage is coming from pushing back the defensive line and when it comes from scampering through the secondary.
Looking at these numbers, the Broncos would have had an even better run defense if they had better tackling from linebackers and defensive backs. The Broncos were ninth in ALY, but 25th in second-level yards per carry (yards that came 5-10 yards away from the line of scrimmage) and 18th in open-field yards per carry (yards that came 11-plus yards away from the line of scrimmage). We also track running in different directions, and the Broncos were best against runs right up the middle (third in the league in ALY). Starters Thomas and Bunkley had no sacks, but they were the big run defenders, while McBean came in on passing downs and contributed four sacks.
Aaron Schatz covers the NFL for ESPN Insider. He is the creator and president of Football Outsiders, which he launched in 2003. He contributes regularly to ESPN The Magazine and appears Wednesday and Thursday on "Numbers Never* Lie" on ESPN2. His work has also appeared in such places as The New York Times, Slate and the Boston Globe. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
It's not easy to have a quiet season with a Dallas Cowboys team that's always under the media microscope, but Robinson managed it. Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are the big-name receivers, but Robinson is the one who put up the biggest numbers. Not bad for a guy who wasn't even on the team when the season started. Robinson showed potential as a rookie with the 2007 Falcons, but he struggled with injuries through another year in Atlanta and two more in St. Louis. The Chargers cut him during training camp, and he found his way to a Dallas team that needed a third receiver. The result: 54 catches for 858 yards and 11 touchdowns. That last number was third in the league for wide receivers. Robinson was thrown only seven more passes than Austin but gained 279 more yards.
As a result, Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (explained here) scored Robinson's season as 43.1 percent better than what we would expect from an average wide receiver. Robinson had the fifth-highest DVOA of the last 20 years for a player with a minimum of 60 pass targets. He actually was only third for this season, because Jordy Nelson and Malcom Floyd were also phenomenal and had the two highest ratings we've ever measured, but that shouldn't take away from the great season Robinson had.
Ryan Mathews
The Chargers have spent two years trying to figure out who should get more carries in their running back committee: Mathews or Mike Tolbert. Based on 2011, the answer should clearly be Mathews. In his second year, Mathews carried the ball 222 times for 1,091 yards and six touchdowns. He finished fifth in total rushing value, according to Football Outsiders' DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement), behind only LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marshawn Lynch and Jonathan Stewart. Our DVOA metric has him 10th in value per run among backs with at least 100 carries. By comparison, Tolbert was 37th in total rushing value and 34th in value per play. Mathews was also excellent as a receiver in 2011. He was third in receiving value (DYAR) among running backs, and fourth in value per play (DVOA) among backs with at least 25 passes. His 85 percent catch rate was the highest for any back with at least 15 passes.
Larry Fitzgerald
Remember this guy? A couple of years ago, he was generally considered the best wide receiver in football. Then he had a couple of seasons with subpar quarterbacks and he started to drift off the radar. He made the Pro Bowl this year, but his fabulous 2011 season may still be underappreciated. Fitzgerald had 1,411 yards -- 20 short of his career high -- with Kevin Kolb and John Skelton as his quarterbacks. He averaged a career-high 17.6 yards per reception; till this year, he hadn't averaged more than 15 yards per reception.
With the FO advanced stats, what stands out is how far ahead Fitzgerald was compared to his teammates. Fitzgerald was 31st in DVOA among receivers with at least 50 passes. Early Doucet was 69th and Andre Roberts was 77th, playing with the same quarterbacks in the same offense and drawing single coverage because opponents were always concentrating on stopping Fitzgerald. By the way, Arizona also played one of the league's tougher schedules of opposing pass defenses; Fitzgerald would have done even better against an average schedule.
Sean Weatherspoon
Atlanta's weakside linebacker, Weatherspoon really blossomed in his second season. Weatherspoon was involved in 16 percent of Atlanta's total defensive plays (tackles or assists), which was the third-highest figure for an outside linebacker behind Carolina's James Anderson and Minnesota's Chad Greenway. Weatherspoon was particularly strong when it came to stopping the run, and he made his average tackle on run plays after a gain of just 2 yards -- ranked second among 4-3 outside linebackers. Weatherspoon was also part of a Falcons linebacker group that played excellent pass defense. The Falcons ranked first in the league in DVOA against tight ends and seventh in DVOA against running backs as receivers.
Denver's defensive tackles (Marcus Thomas, Brodrick Bunkley and Ryan McBean)
Denver's late-season surge was partly due to Tebow Time miracle making, but it was also partly due to improved defense. The Broncos allowed 13 or fewer points in five of their final eight games. The Broncos' pass defense got a lot of attention, especially with the great rookie season from linebacker Von Miller, but their run defense was even more impressive. In the final FO ratings, the Broncos rank 24th in pass defense but 13th in run defense, and the strength of that run defense was right up front. We use a stat called adjusted line yards to separate runs at different levels so you can see when yardage is coming from pushing back the defensive line and when it comes from scampering through the secondary.
Looking at these numbers, the Broncos would have had an even better run defense if they had better tackling from linebackers and defensive backs. The Broncos were ninth in ALY, but 25th in second-level yards per carry (yards that came 5-10 yards away from the line of scrimmage) and 18th in open-field yards per carry (yards that came 11-plus yards away from the line of scrimmage). We also track running in different directions, and the Broncos were best against runs right up the middle (third in the league in ALY). Starters Thomas and Bunkley had no sacks, but they were the big run defenders, while McBean came in on passing downs and contributed four sacks.
Aaron Schatz covers the NFL for ESPN Insider. He is the creator and president of Football Outsiders, which he launched in 2003. He contributes regularly to ESPN The Magazine and appears Wednesday and Thursday on "Numbers Never* Lie" on ESPN2. His work has also appeared in such places as The New York Times, Slate and the Boston Globe. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
at Fitzgerald being on an "underrated" list
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