This is not a strong rookie class.
There, I wrote it. Now let's move on.
Just because this year's crop doesn't look great coming in doesn't mean it won't have 12-15 players who play in the pros for a long time. In fact, it probably will.
Sure, the 2011 class faces a tougher task than almost any before it, considering that these rookies neither played summer league nor spent a second with their NBA coaches before training camps opened on Dec. 9. As a result, the veterans they'll be competing with for playing time will have an advantage early in the season. Given that, our initial top 10 looks different than I would have guessed in late June.
It's going to be a topsy-turvy 66-game ride for these guys, and we'll follow every twist and turn each week. Here's our first look at which rookies should get off to a fast start in 2011-12, based mostly on opportunity.
Rankings based on expected playing time:
1. Tristan Thompson, F, Cleveland Cavaliers
Thompson is the preseason winner based on projected playing time -- unless Cleveland for some reason decides to play Antawn Jamison 30-plus minutes a night. Thompson is a classic stat-stuffer who combines great length and athleticism with a beastly work ethic. Rebounds and garbage buckets just find him, as do trips to the free throw line.
I envision the Cavs featuring him early on in a faster-paced game in the full court, as well as in an assortment of ball-screen/isolation sets to see what he can and can't do. Add that to his own innate talent for getting buckets off the ball and it looks like he'll put up numbers right away.
2. Kyrie Irving, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers
As we've seen with other top guards (Derrick Rose, John Wall, Tyreke Evans), it's fair to expect that the No. 1 pick in 2011 will start off strongly. With Baron Davis out of the picture, the Cavs realize that Irving needs 32-plus minutes a night to get him moving in the right direction as soon as possible.
I know Irving played only 11 games in his one season at Duke, but he also spent many hours practicing with a great coach in Mike Krzyzewski, so Irving's hoops IQ and his ability to play extremely hard should be up to par in the NBA.
3. Kenneth Faried, PF, Denver Nuggets
Faried is this high because the Nuggets are very short on bigs. However, the No. 22 pick in this year's draft is also the top candidate to drop quickly on this list if the Nuggets choose to beef up their frontline through trades or free agency. But that's the beauty of Faried. He'll be terrific in any role he plays because he's a hustle guy who has both strength and a feel for the game.
George Karl is going to love coaching Faried, and unless Denver adds some awfully strong talent, he will be hard-pressed to keep Faried on the bench for long. Faried is ready to help his team win games right now.
4. Marcus Morris, F, Houston Rockets
Let me begin by telling you that I rarely think guys can go from power forward to small forward in the NBA. But Morris says he's been a 3 his whole career except for his time at Kansas, where they needed him to play down low more.
After seeing him play in May, I'm convinced he's a small forward, but more of what I like to call a "power small forward" -- he can hurt defenders down low and on the glass. He's also a scorer with range and toughness. Given the Rockets' roster, he should be able to get minutes at the 3 or 4 and might even crack the starting lineup.
5. Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Bobcats
Based entirely on his ball-handling wizardry and dynamic personality, I expect Walker to play a lot in Charlotte. And I think he'll be attacking from game one, imposing his considerable will every minute he plays. He's not the kind of player who will take his time settling in, focus more on moving the ball and avoid taking many risks.
He too may drop some by mid-January if his shot is not falling and teams adjust by focusing on taking away his dribble-drives (think the latter part of Brandon Jennings' rookie season). But for now, I expect fireworks either off the bench or as a starter. (He'd be higher if D.J. Augustin wasn't the team's only 3-point threat, which could limit Kemba's minutes.)
6. Bismack Biyombo, F, Charlotte Bobcats
I have BB this high because Charlotte intelligently let Kwame Brown go. That opens up serious time for this young and aggressive defender to show us what he has.
Biyombo is a fearless player who will not back down from anyone on either end of the floor, and he should be one of the top rooks in blocked shots and rebounding all season long.
7. Chris Singleton, F, Washington Wizards
The Wizards were a poor defensive team last season, so Singleton will be looked to from the opening game to help the team get back to defensive respectability.
Florida State might do the best job of any college team at teaching defense, so he should have no issues making the adjustment -- other than having to defend guys like LeBron James and Kevin Durant, of course. But he's huge (6-8, 230 pounds) and fluid, so there's no better time than now to get him his minutes and start the learning process.
8. Derrick Williams, F, Minnesota Timberwolves
Remember, this is not a list of who I think is the most talented. If that were the case, Williams would easily be in the top three.
It's just that he plays the same position as Minny's best player, Kevin Love, who could swing to the center spot if not for the commitment the Wolves made to Darko Milicic. I don't envision Rick Adelman just throwing Williams out as a small forward a ton either, so he likely will not see a lot of playing time early on. Over time his minutes will increase, and then he will rise.
9. Jan Vesely, F, Washington Wizards
Whether Vesely ends up playing more small forward or power forward, the Wizards are best served developing him by playing him a lot. Vesely's speed and agility work perfectly with Wall's game, and his adjustment from the Serbian pro game to this one will be relatively painless thanks to years already spent playing with good to great players.
One note on the Wiz: If all four forwards they've taken in the last two drafts -- Vesely, Singleton, Trevor Booker and Kevin Seraphin -- can contribute, then they at least have better trade assets to work with than just a soon-to-be expiring Rashard Lewis and the mercurial Andray Blatche.
10. Alec Burks, G, Utah Jazz
Burks gets the nod here with the thinking being that Utah will want to play him and Gordon Hayward a lot in order to develop a core of youngsters that includes Derrick Favors and, to a lesser extent, Enes Kanter.
It's been a long while since Utah has had a shot-creator at the 2, a guy with slashing ability and big scoring potential. The front line of Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson will create big scoring areas on the perimeter, so Burks will have real opportunities to put up points.
Four guys who may eventually crack the top 10:
Enes Kanter, C, Utah Jazz
Kanter would be higher if he played behind someone other than Jefferson. Big Al has his issues, but with his salary and ability to score and rebound, he'll still soak up too many minutes for Kanter to make a huge impact.
Markieff Morris, F/C, Phoenix Suns
We rarely see big guys enter the NBA shooting the 3 well, but in time Morris will show us that he can rebound and defend in addition to shooting the 3-ball. Those three skills will earn him solid rotation minutes.
Jimmer Fredette, G, Sacramento Kings
Fredette is a big mystery, not because of anything he can or can't do, but because it's hard to see what Sacramento is going to do in terms of player acquisitions and style of play. I think Fredette is going to become an excellent, relatively pure point guard this season, while mixing in his scoring talent later this season and next.
Ricky Rubio, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves
No one was higher on Rubio two years ago than me, but my eyes tell me a different story now. He has been just awful the past year. The reasons for this will come at a later date. However, I do think the change in leagues and coaches will help him greatly. Adelman is a true players' coach, and he'll let Ricky be Ricky. At the very least we should see some incredible passing highlights coming from the frigid north soon.
There, I wrote it. Now let's move on.
Just because this year's crop doesn't look great coming in doesn't mean it won't have 12-15 players who play in the pros for a long time. In fact, it probably will.
Sure, the 2011 class faces a tougher task than almost any before it, considering that these rookies neither played summer league nor spent a second with their NBA coaches before training camps opened on Dec. 9. As a result, the veterans they'll be competing with for playing time will have an advantage early in the season. Given that, our initial top 10 looks different than I would have guessed in late June.
It's going to be a topsy-turvy 66-game ride for these guys, and we'll follow every twist and turn each week. Here's our first look at which rookies should get off to a fast start in 2011-12, based mostly on opportunity.
Rankings based on expected playing time:
1. Tristan Thompson, F, Cleveland Cavaliers
Thompson is the preseason winner based on projected playing time -- unless Cleveland for some reason decides to play Antawn Jamison 30-plus minutes a night. Thompson is a classic stat-stuffer who combines great length and athleticism with a beastly work ethic. Rebounds and garbage buckets just find him, as do trips to the free throw line.
I envision the Cavs featuring him early on in a faster-paced game in the full court, as well as in an assortment of ball-screen/isolation sets to see what he can and can't do. Add that to his own innate talent for getting buckets off the ball and it looks like he'll put up numbers right away.
2. Kyrie Irving, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers
As we've seen with other top guards (Derrick Rose, John Wall, Tyreke Evans), it's fair to expect that the No. 1 pick in 2011 will start off strongly. With Baron Davis out of the picture, the Cavs realize that Irving needs 32-plus minutes a night to get him moving in the right direction as soon as possible.
I know Irving played only 11 games in his one season at Duke, but he also spent many hours practicing with a great coach in Mike Krzyzewski, so Irving's hoops IQ and his ability to play extremely hard should be up to par in the NBA.
3. Kenneth Faried, PF, Denver Nuggets
Faried is this high because the Nuggets are very short on bigs. However, the No. 22 pick in this year's draft is also the top candidate to drop quickly on this list if the Nuggets choose to beef up their frontline through trades or free agency. But that's the beauty of Faried. He'll be terrific in any role he plays because he's a hustle guy who has both strength and a feel for the game.
George Karl is going to love coaching Faried, and unless Denver adds some awfully strong talent, he will be hard-pressed to keep Faried on the bench for long. Faried is ready to help his team win games right now.
4. Marcus Morris, F, Houston Rockets
Let me begin by telling you that I rarely think guys can go from power forward to small forward in the NBA. But Morris says he's been a 3 his whole career except for his time at Kansas, where they needed him to play down low more.
After seeing him play in May, I'm convinced he's a small forward, but more of what I like to call a "power small forward" -- he can hurt defenders down low and on the glass. He's also a scorer with range and toughness. Given the Rockets' roster, he should be able to get minutes at the 3 or 4 and might even crack the starting lineup.
5. Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Bobcats
Based entirely on his ball-handling wizardry and dynamic personality, I expect Walker to play a lot in Charlotte. And I think he'll be attacking from game one, imposing his considerable will every minute he plays. He's not the kind of player who will take his time settling in, focus more on moving the ball and avoid taking many risks.
He too may drop some by mid-January if his shot is not falling and teams adjust by focusing on taking away his dribble-drives (think the latter part of Brandon Jennings' rookie season). But for now, I expect fireworks either off the bench or as a starter. (He'd be higher if D.J. Augustin wasn't the team's only 3-point threat, which could limit Kemba's minutes.)
6. Bismack Biyombo, F, Charlotte Bobcats
I have BB this high because Charlotte intelligently let Kwame Brown go. That opens up serious time for this young and aggressive defender to show us what he has.
Biyombo is a fearless player who will not back down from anyone on either end of the floor, and he should be one of the top rooks in blocked shots and rebounding all season long.
7. Chris Singleton, F, Washington Wizards
The Wizards were a poor defensive team last season, so Singleton will be looked to from the opening game to help the team get back to defensive respectability.
Florida State might do the best job of any college team at teaching defense, so he should have no issues making the adjustment -- other than having to defend guys like LeBron James and Kevin Durant, of course. But he's huge (6-8, 230 pounds) and fluid, so there's no better time than now to get him his minutes and start the learning process.
8. Derrick Williams, F, Minnesota Timberwolves
Remember, this is not a list of who I think is the most talented. If that were the case, Williams would easily be in the top three.
It's just that he plays the same position as Minny's best player, Kevin Love, who could swing to the center spot if not for the commitment the Wolves made to Darko Milicic. I don't envision Rick Adelman just throwing Williams out as a small forward a ton either, so he likely will not see a lot of playing time early on. Over time his minutes will increase, and then he will rise.
9. Jan Vesely, F, Washington Wizards
Whether Vesely ends up playing more small forward or power forward, the Wizards are best served developing him by playing him a lot. Vesely's speed and agility work perfectly with Wall's game, and his adjustment from the Serbian pro game to this one will be relatively painless thanks to years already spent playing with good to great players.
One note on the Wiz: If all four forwards they've taken in the last two drafts -- Vesely, Singleton, Trevor Booker and Kevin Seraphin -- can contribute, then they at least have better trade assets to work with than just a soon-to-be expiring Rashard Lewis and the mercurial Andray Blatche.
10. Alec Burks, G, Utah Jazz
Burks gets the nod here with the thinking being that Utah will want to play him and Gordon Hayward a lot in order to develop a core of youngsters that includes Derrick Favors and, to a lesser extent, Enes Kanter.
It's been a long while since Utah has had a shot-creator at the 2, a guy with slashing ability and big scoring potential. The front line of Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson will create big scoring areas on the perimeter, so Burks will have real opportunities to put up points.
Four guys who may eventually crack the top 10:
Enes Kanter, C, Utah Jazz
Kanter would be higher if he played behind someone other than Jefferson. Big Al has his issues, but with his salary and ability to score and rebound, he'll still soak up too many minutes for Kanter to make a huge impact.
Markieff Morris, F/C, Phoenix Suns
We rarely see big guys enter the NBA shooting the 3 well, but in time Morris will show us that he can rebound and defend in addition to shooting the 3-ball. Those three skills will earn him solid rotation minutes.
Jimmer Fredette, G, Sacramento Kings
Fredette is a big mystery, not because of anything he can or can't do, but because it's hard to see what Sacramento is going to do in terms of player acquisitions and style of play. I think Fredette is going to become an excellent, relatively pure point guard this season, while mixing in his scoring talent later this season and next.
Ricky Rubio, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves
No one was higher on Rubio two years ago than me, but my eyes tell me a different story now. He has been just awful the past year. The reasons for this will come at a later date. However, I do think the change in leagues and coaches will help him greatly. Adelman is a true players' coach, and he'll let Ricky be Ricky. At the very least we should see some incredible passing highlights coming from the frigid north soon.
