2012 College Baseball

[Sharkweather]

To kick off the thread, BaseballAmerica's preseason top 25.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/top-25/2011/2612851.html

Finally, each team is given an Overall Future Potential (OFP) grade. The OFP scale:

80: A team for the ages. An overwhelming favorite with no obvious weaknesses. Think 1981 Arizona State or 1996 Louisiana State—and, this year, Florida.

70: Elite. A leading contender for the national title.

65: Well-above-average. Legitimate championship contender.

60: Above-average. Strong Omaha contender.

55: Slightly above-average. A threat to win a conference title and perhaps reach Omaha.

50: Solid-average. Strong NCAA tournament teams who could make a postseason run.

1. Florida
Baseball America OFP: 80. If ever a team were an overwhelming favorite on paper, it's Florida, which has talent, experience, balance, motivation and strong coaching. It fell two wins shy in 2011 but looks poised to finally hoist the trophy in 2012.

2. Stanford
Baseball America OFP: 70. Only Florida can match Stanford's talent level. Anything less than a CWS appearance will be a disappointment for this group, which has a strong chance to end Stanford's nearly quarter-century-long national title drought.

3. South Carolina
Baseball America OFP: 70. If the last two years have taught us anything it is never to doubt Roth, Price and co. South Carolina has a legit chance at college baseball's first three-peat since Southern California won five straight from 1970-74.

4. Arkansas
Baseball America OFP: 70. Arkansas has a deep, talented roster and few discernible weaknesses. The Hogs are the favorites to win the SEC West and are legit national title contenders.

5. Arizona
Baseball America OFP: 65. A major reason for Arizona's move to Hi Corbett was to enhance its chances to host a regional. This team is good enough to host and to get the Wildcats to Omaha for the first time since 2004.

6. Rice
Baseball America OFP: 65. Rice's pitching-and-defense formula is a recipe for success in the BBCOR era, and the lineup will make opposing pitchers work hard. A deep postseason run is in Rice's sights.

7. Texas A&M
Baseball America OFP: 60. Wacha and Stripling will ensure the Aggies are very difficult to beat in weekend series, and the athletic lineup is intriguing. Another Omaha run is certainly within reach.

8. Louisiana State
Baseball America OFP: 60. LSU lacks its traditional offensive firepower, but its enviable stable of arms and collection of solid veterans in the lineup could carry it back to Omaha for the first time since '09.

9. North Carolina
Baseball America OFP: 60. This program simply knows how to win. Its 2012 roster is built to grind opponents down offensively and win close games with its deep bullpen. That formula worked in 2011, and it should result in a lot of wins again this year.

10. Vanderbilt
Baseball America OFP: 60. Vanderbilt's upside is tantalizing, because its pitching staff is overflowing with quality arms, but how those arms will respond to the rigors of the SEC remains to be seen. The fantastic coaching staff and strong lineup ensure this team's floor is fairly high even if the pitching should disappoint. Amazingly, a team that lost 11 drafted players—including four All-Americans—could realistically get back to Omaha.

11. Georgia
Baseball America OFP: 60. David Perno thinks his team is in the best shape heading into a season as it has been in his tenure. Balanced and deep, Georgia is capable of making noise in the postseason.

12. Georgia Tech
Baseball America OFP: 60. Georgia Tech has the talent to make an Omaha run, but the same could be said in each of the last three years, which ended in disappointment. The Jackets need their talented young arms to live up to their potential, and the whole team needs to play at peak level when it matters most.

13. Texas
Baseball America OFP: 60. The lineup won't scare anybody, and the defense doesn't look quite as airtight as usual, but the arms and the system are capable of carrying Texas a long way.

14. UCLA
Baseball America OFP: 60. If UCLA's pitching holds up, it is capable of hosting a regional at newly-renovated Jackie Robinson Stadium for the third straight year, because the defense should be elite and the offense figures to transform from a liability into a strength.

15. Texas Christian
Baseball America OFP: 55. TCU's stellar offense should carry it for long stretches, but the young pitching will be tested immediately by a challenging first four weeks (Mississippi, at Cal State Fullerton, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech).

16. Clemson
Baseball America OFP: 55. Clemson has some question marks but also has significant upside. If McGibbon and Pohl can protect Shaffer and the bullpen can come together, the Tigers could challenge for the ACC title.

17. Arizona State
Baseball America OFP: 55. Arizona State is not eligible for the 2012 postseason because of NCAA rules infractions, but the Sun Devils can still win the Pacific-12 Conference title. Don't be shocked if they ride a free-wheeling, nothing-to-lose mentality—and a dynamite one-two punch atop the rotation—into the thick of the Pac-12 race.

18. Miami
Baseball America OFP: 55. When the NCAA ruled O'Brien—who transferred from Bethune-Cookman to be near his ailing mother—eligible on Jan. 19, Miami's CWS prospects received a major boost. The Hurricanes are a balanced club led by a strong pitching staff, and they should be considered a major factor in the ACC.

19. Oklahoma
Baseball America OFP: 55. Optimism abounded in Norman after the fall, when fierce competition for jobs brought out the best in players. The Sooners look hungry and rejuvenated, and they figure to get better as the spring progresses and their newcomers adjust to Division I.

20. Florida State
Baseball America OFP: 55. Florida State will score loads of runs and should play good defense, but the development of its young pitching will ultimately determine whether or not the season is a success.

21. Central Florida
Baseball America OFP: 50. The pillars of Terry Rooney's first recruiting class at UCF are now entering their junior years, and UCF followed that group up with two more strong classes. The future is now for the Knights, who have their sights set on their first super regional.

22. Mississippi
Baseball America OFP: 50. Ole Miss looks like a balanced club capable of making a run, though it won't be easy in the loaded SEC. The Rebels should get back into regionals, and if their young pitchers develop as hoped, they could be dangerous in June.

23. Oregon State
Baseball America OFP: 50. There are plenty of question marks, but if the young arms mature as hoped, the Beavers have super regional upside.

24. Louisville
Baseball America OFP: 50. Louisville's lineup has a lot to prove, but the summer and fall provided plenty of reason for optimism, and the pitching staff should be good enough to carry this team to plenty of low-scoring victories.

25. Cal State Fullerton
Baseball America OFP: 50. The significant pitching question marks place Fullerton in the unfamiliar position of being an underdog to get to Omaha. This program has a history of thriving when expectations for them are lower—and the Titans are still the favorite to win the Big West Conference.

 

[Woy]

I really wish RMU had a real team, instead of just a club squad.

I'll definitely try to catch some games this season.

 

[chazmaniandevil]

just got my stanford season tickets in the mail. #2 BABY! also ordered MVP NCAA Baseball 07, gets here on wednesday, can't wait

 

[Woy]

just got my stanford season tickets in the mail. #2 BABY! also ordered MVP NCAA Baseball 07, gets here on wednesday, can't wait

One of my favorite games ever.

 

[Goober]

I really wish RMU had a real team, instead of just a club squad.

I'll definitely try to catch some games this season.

I know the feeling. It's fucking ridiculous UW doesn't have a team.

 

[NAHSTE]

I'm excited for LSU this year. Manieri said the bullpen is deeper and better than any team he's had in Baton Rouge.

:jizz:

 

[KnightNoles]

FSU preview/summary...

host super regional, maybe win maybe not.. 2 and out of CWS...

Figures

 

[Goober]

Mark Appel pitched great last night, 10 k's against Texas.

 

[NAHSTE]

LSU is 5-0 on the year after shutting out Appy State, 4-0.

 

[NAHSTE]

-LSU lost 1-0 today to Appalachian State. Absolutely dominating performance by the Appy arms. Just four hits for the Tigers.

-Oregon beat #16 Vandy 7-2 on Saturday, to clinch the series. I suppose that is a moderate upset.

-Holy Cross beat #4 Texas A&M 7-3 in extras. After almost pulling the Friday night upset, the Crusaders get it done in game 2.

 

[NAHSTE]

LSU down 9-0 heading into the 9th inning of the series finale v. Appy State. Team can't hit at this juncture, it would appear.

Quite a huge upset for the Mountaineers to take the series.

 

[Sharkweather]

-Oregon beat #16 Vandy 7-2 on Saturday, to clinch the series. I suppose that is a moderate upset.

Holy shit Vanderbilt. 1-7 on the season. I know they are young, but damn.

LSU has been a in a couple football score games already, I thought pitching was their strength?

Another surprising start has been Texas at 2-5, even though they did get swept at Stanford.

Georgia off to an 8-1 start, but the competition hasn't been anything great, in fact most of the OOC schedule this year is weak.

#1 Florida vs #12 Miami in the big series of the weekend.

 

[NAHSTE]

LSU dropped the finale 7-1, but took the first two games v Mississippi State in the opening SEC series. The win on Friday night came in the last at bat in the bottom of the 10th inning.

Some other results:

-#24 Kentucky swept #3 South Carolina, 4-3, 4-3, 6-3. The Cats are now 20-0 and are looking very for real.

-#7 Rice was upset by Grambling today, 5-4.

-#1 Florida hammered Vandy over three games and is now 19-1.

-#18 Georgia took the first two v. Tennessee but looks to be down late in the finale. They'll face #15 Georgia Tech in a midweek game this Wednesday.

-#7 Texas A&M lost a 15-13 slugfest on Friday to Kansas State, but looks to be in good shape to take the series, as they are up 7-2 late in the finale.

-#14 UCLA beat #12 Arizona State 6-5 Friday night, but yesterday's game was washed out. They are playing a double-header today to finish up.

-#19 Oregon State looks to be in good shape for the sweep over #21 Cal.

-After dropping a game to Loyola Marymount last weekend, #30 Texas seems to have righted the ship. They are up late on Oklahoma and if they can hang on the Horns will have swept.

 

[NAHSTE]

- #1 Florida (L 9-3, W 8-2, W 5-4) took the series at #6 South Carolina. Gators are now 22-2 and 5-1 in the SEC. Gamecocks are 17-7 and just 1-5 in conference play.

- #13 Kentucky finally lost, in the opener v. Tennessee, but they swept the double-header today to take the series and move to 24-1 (5-1).

- #12 LSU is trying to get out of Auburn with a W after dropping the first two 4-3 and 3-2. Update - won game three, 4-3. The Tigers are now 18-6 on the season, and 3-3 in conference.

- Vandy upset #17 Georgia 1-0 Friday night and came from behind in the finale on Sunday to claim the series and halt their slide.

- #3 Arkansas takes the series over Mississippi State (L 11-2, W 8-0, W 3-2)

- #8 Texas A&M continues to make noise, sweeping Pepperdine 4-0, 9-2 and 12-5. They are definitely the most likely CWS team in the Big 12.

- Somehow Texas remains ranked barely in the top 25 (barely, they're 25th) despite continuing to lose games. They dropped the opener to Kansas State 5-2 and are tied 4-4 in the 7th in the finale. Even if they salvage the series they'll be 3 games over .500 with some ugly losses to Duke, Loyola Marymount and UT Arlington.

 

[NAHSTE]

LSU took 2 of 3 from #1 Florida, now sit in first place in the West by a .5 game over Arkansas.

:dance:

 

[NAHSTE]

Good scouting report by Keith Law on LSU ace Kevin Gausman:

LSU right-hander Kevin Gausman, who was sixth on my most recent ranking of the top prospects for this year's draft, threw at Alex Box Stadium on Friday night against a largely overmatched Alabama team, and was clearly a different pitcher from the one I saw when he was in high school, and even different from the pitcher he was a month ago.

Gausman was 94-97 in the first few innings, and still 93-96 in the 8th, with better command than he'd had in the past; he still gets too much of the middle of the plate at times, but showed that he could attack the corners successfully at least some of the time. Gausman had been using a curveball as his primary breaking ball until his last outing, at which point he switched to a slider that is a much better weapon for him now and in pro ball. At 82-86, it has a hard mostly downward dive that should be tough for pro hitters to pick up in time to lay off it. Gausman's changeup, described earlier this spring as his best off-speed pitch, lacked its usual action, with just fair arm speed at 84-86, and he didn't have any feel for it.

Gausman's delivery starts with the highest possible leg kick -- he looks like a flamingo at its peak -- leading to a fairly long stride where he drops his pitching arm quite low behind his body, although it's not as severe as a stab and doesn't plunge enough to drag his pitching shoulder down. He stays over the rubber well, just slightly drifting forward through the balance point, but finishes strongly out over his front side. It's much cleaner and more powerful than it was in high school, where he didn't have the same body control, drifted forward off the rubber, and didn't land as squarely over his front leg. Gausman also starts his warmups with a single crow-hop throw to the plate, much as Trevor Bauer does, and last night his first such throw came in at 102 mph.

There's a fair amount of industry speculation that Gausman is Kansas City's target with the fifth overall pick, although I assume that's based on the assumption that the first four picks are, in some order, Byron Buxton, Mark Appel (who was 97-99 early last night, but threw an arm-numbing 149 pitches), Kyle Zimmer (who was rained out) and Mike Zunino. The Royals did want a college starter last year, only to have their top four choices (including Dylan Bundy, the high school pitcher who was as polished as a college guy) taken in the top four spots. This year, they should get one of those three college arms if that is indeed still their goal.


• The new CBA will make college seniors, who have less leverage than a broken fulcrum, particularly attractive to clubs looking to shift money to high school players without going over their overall draft bonus caps. Alabama outfielder Taylor Dugas should be one of the first such seniors off the board, as he's better than your typical "senior sign" (a college player who signs for $1,000 to go fill out a minor league roster) because of his long-demonstrated ability to square up good pitching, including plus velocity. At 5-foot-7 (if that), he's hard-pressed to profile as a big league regular, but I feel very strongly that he'll at least hit his way to some role on a major league bench.

• Alabama right-hander Ian Gardeck was drafted in the eighth round last year by the White Sox out of Angelina Junior College, but didn't sign, and after a brief flirtation with the University of Dayton ended up in Tuscaloosa. He was 92-95 in one inning last night with a hard low-80s slider, but doesn't command either pitch and needs some delivery cleanup if that's ever going to improve.

• Tide starter Trey Pilkington was 89-90 with a short, fringy slider in the 78-84 mph range; he's got a very short arm action that prevents hitters from picking up the ball until late, but the stuff is ordinary enough that the deception can't really help him, and that delivery won't hold up in a rotation in either healthy or command. I'd like to see what he could do as a right-on-right reliever, since the ball appears so late and once through the order he might have more success, but that probably puts him after the 10th round.

• Finally, that was my first LSU home game in the new or old stadiums, and I wish every more colleges had that kind of local support and atmosphere at home games. Outside of the SEC, few schools draw at close to this level, but LSU has remarkable facilities and the fan base to maintain it going forward. For college baseball to escape its niche status, we'll need another dozen LSUs and South Carolinas across the country.

 

[Sharkweather]

Oregon scored three unearned runs in the top of the 10th inning, and closer Jimmie Sherfy worked out of a bases-loaded jam in the bottom of the 10th to give the No. 16 Ducks a wild 4-2 victory at No. 6 Stanford on Friday night.

Oregon senior right-hander Alex Keudell matched Stanford ace Mark Appel pitch for pitch as both tossed nine complete innings. Keudell stretched his streak of not allowing an earned run to 28 innings before Stanford tied it 1-1 in the sixth inning.

Appel, a 6-foot-5 right-hander who's projected to be the No. 1 pick in this summer's MLB draft, allowed only one unearned run in the first inning. The Ducks managed 10 hits off Appel, who finished with 13 strikeouts and a whopping 149 pitches thrown.

A minor league manager would be fired for such a travesty.