"3-4 best prospects" is the price for Cliff Lee

[ThomasTomasz]

Cliff Lee's name is definitely out there in trade talks, and the free-falling Phillies appear to at least be considering trading one of their aces.

However, the price tag on the veteran left-hander is exteremely high, leading some to speculate that ulatimately the Phillies may keep him.

"He's telling people it'll take you three or four best prospects, plus you'd have to take all the money," one competing executive said of Phillies GM Ruben Amaro.

Another executive put it thusly, "You'd have to give up your first born, second and third born, too."

Amaro didn't respond to a text message.

While some have thought the Phillies never would consider selling its very biggest pieces, the recent slide may be weighing on them. They have a big TV deal coming and have been a team focused on winning now, but more drastic measures may need to be considered, and as one Phillies connected person said, "If there's a good deal to be made, Ruben will make it."

Lee has a stiff price attached to him, and also a stiff neck that caused him to miss his last start, though there's no indication that's more than a one-start issue.

One thing that shouldn't prevent a deal is Lee's 21-team no-trade list, as Lee has said his main objective is to win. He spoke in this space a couple months ago about that being his prioirty, and according to a friend, that hasn't changed.

The question is: Who'd be wiling to take on a contract that pays him $25 million a year through 2015, then has a vesting option for another year with a $12.5 million buyout, bringing the guarantee to almost exactly $70 million.

The Dodgers claimed Lee last year and are seemingly always on the lookout for big stars, but their rotation sitiation looks as good as anyone's at the moment. The Rangers love him but their need is hitting. Among other big-market teams, the Yankees need offense, the Red Sox seem to have gone away from the $20 million-plus player, the Angels are selling and the price tag seems steep for the Cardinals and especially the Braves.

Lee may wind up staying in Philly. But for now at least, he is spicing up the market.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/j...n-the-market-but-price-is-said-to-be-enormous

So for the Orioles, it would cost us Bundy, Gausman and Schoop. Yeah, not happening.

 

[Woy]

This is the only guy on the market I'd trade Martinez or Wacha for. That price tag though? No thanks.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

Bonafide stud.

There are maybe 5-10 guys in all of the minor leagues that I wouldn't include in a trade for him and no one outside of maybe the Astros or the Twins has "3 or 4" of their top guys that I wouldn't trade for him.

 

[Obst]

Finally a smart move by Amaro. Garza netted the Cubs a nice package and Peavy could get the White Sox even more.

Cliff is obviously on a different level than those guys and it would be stupid to sell him just for the hell of it. If you can't get Xander Bogaerts as the main piece from the Red Sox or something like Wacha, Wong + from the Crads, you hold on to Lee and wait for the winter.

 

[NAHSTE]

Finally a smart move by Amaro. Garza netted the Cubs a nice package and Peavy could get the White Sox even more.

Cliff is obviously on a different level than those guys and it would be stupid to sell him just for the hell of it. If you can't get Xander Bogaerts as the main piece from the Red Sox or something like Wacha, Wong + from the Crads, you hold on to Lee and wait for the winter.

I love Cliff Lee but if I'm Boston there's no way in hell I'm parting ways with Xander.

 

[Obst]

I love Cliff Lee but if I'm Boston there's no way in hell I'm parting ways with Xander.

Nor do I expect them to, but that should be the type of player the Phillies are looking for in return.

 

[NAHSTE]

Nor do I expect them to, but that should be the type of player the Phillies are looking for in return.

As good as he is, he is 34 and already slightly declining, with 2 years left under contract at $25 million each, plus a pretty attainable $27.5 million vesting option for 2016. If he throws 200 IP in 2015, or 400 over '14-'15, you're on the hook for paying him almost 28 million at 37.

That's a lot of risk and financial responsibility being taken on by the team acquiring him, a bit unreasonable to expect a top 25 guy IMO unless the Phils are covering some salary.

 

[RyanLeaf16]

If that were to happen. The Rays would bring in a haul for David Price when we deal him away.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

As good as he is, he is 34 and already slightly declining, with 2 years left under contract at $25 million each, plus a pretty attainable $27.5 million vesting option for 2016. If he throws 200 IP in 2015, or 400 over '14-'15, you're on the hook for paying him almost 28 million at 37.

That's a lot of risk and financial responsibility being taken on by the team acquiring him, a bit unreasonable to expect a top 25 guy IMO unless the Phils are covering some salary.

Hes 34 and still one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's a legit #1 for any team looking to make a run. His numbers are declining, but its such a tiny regression. You got him for 2-3 years at a high cost, but...he's also a legit ace. You pay the cost for those.

If you're serious about a run...you're paying a cost, but he's an ace...what do you expect...to get him for free? Top prospects are what it should take to get him.

 

[Villain]

I can see 3 top prospects, but not if that whole salary needs to get eaten as well. That's just too much for a guy with a stiff neck on contract into his late 30s.

 

[NAHSTE]

Hes 34 and still one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's a legit #1 for any team looking to make a run. His numbers are declining, but its such a tiny regression. You got him for 2-3 years at a high cost, but...he's also a legit ace. You pay the cost for those.

If you're serious about a run...you're paying a cost, but he's an ace...what do you expect...to get him for free? Top prospects are what it should take to get him.

Top prospects, sure, but not Xander Bogaerts.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

Top prospects, sure, but not Xander Bogaerts.

It depends on the team...if not Xander Bogaerts, its someone else on the same caliber.

 

[NAHSTE]

It depends on the team...if not Xander Bogaerts, its someone else on the same caliber.

Are the Phils chipping in salary though? It's tough to give up 6 years of cost control in exchange for Cliff Lee for 3 years/77 million. Not an untradeable contract by any means, it could very well be fair value over the next two years, but I'd like a little help on the dollars to sweeten the pot if I'm surrendering cheaper, younger talent. Year 3 at $27.5 million is more or less dead money.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

Are the Phils chipping in salary though? It's tough to give up 6 years of cost control in exchange for Cliff Lee for 3 years/77 million. Not an untradeable contract by any means, it could very well be fair value over the next two years, but I'd like a little help on the dollars to sweeten the pot if I'm surrendering cheaper, younger talent. Year 3 at $27.5 million is more or less dead money.

We're talking about one of the games best pitchers, not Barry Zito.

If you're a team like the (hypothetically) the Orioles...you feel you got a chance at making the playoffs and making a run but want that top of the line pitcher...do I give up say...Dylan Bundy, Gausman, and Schoop.

You're god damn right I do.

Even if I don't win it, I got one of the games best pitchers for the next few seasons and puts me in a position to get to the playoffs every year.

Prospects are overrated. Proven commodities are underrated.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

We're talking about one of the games best pitchers, not Barry Zito.

If you're a team like the (hypothetically) the Orioles...you feel you got a chance at making the playoffs and making a run but want that top of the line pitcher...do I give up say...Dylan Bundy, Gausman, and Schoop.

You're god damn right I do.

Even if I don't win it, I got one of the games best pitchers for the next few seasons and puts me in a position to get to the playoffs every year.

Prospects are overrated. Proven commodities are underrated.

Not for a pitcher in his 30's with that much money owed to him. And I do agree with you on prospects are overrated, but when you have two guys who could be #1 ace pitchers, and that is what your team lacks now, you hold onto those guys, especially when BOTH are almost locks for your rotation next year.

Honestly, I would be hard pressed to give up one of Gausman or Bundy for Lee, much less both. Not saying I wouldn't do it for one of them, but it isn't a slam dunk like you are saying.

 

[NAHSTE]

If you're a team like the (hypothetically) the Orioles...you feel you got a chance at making the playoffs and making a run but want that top of the line pitcher...do I give up say...Dylan Bundy, Gausman, and Schoop.

You're god damn right I do.

:rofl:

That's dumb.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

:rofl:

That's dumb.

How so?

Bundy is now three years away from being anything.
Gausman had a rough first stint in the majors, and again, could be years before he's anything decent.
Schoop is an unknown.

You corncobs value prospects way too much.

The chances of those three coming anywhere close to Lee is slim and none and if they are, its years away.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

Not for a pitcher in his 30's with that much money owed to him. And I do agree with you on prospects are overrated, but when you have two guys who could be #1 ace pitchers, and that is what your team lacks now, you hold onto those guys, especially when BOTH are almost locks for your rotation next year.

Honestly, I would be hard pressed to give up one of Gausman or Bundy for Lee, much less both. Not saying I wouldn't do it for one of them, but it isn't a slam dunk like you are saying.

You know who would be a lock for my rotation as my #1 guy.

Cliff Lee.

Didn't Baltimore go through this with Zach Britton and Brian Matusz. If you can acquire something thats already elite...you get it. We ain't talking about a bum here or a one year wonder or even a mid-level player. We talkin' bout an ace.

Also, take into account you have a better chance winning this year, or next year with Lee than you do in those two years with Goose and Bundy.

 

[NAHSTE]

How so?

Bundy is now three years away from being anything.
Gausman had a rough first stint in the majors, and again, could be years before he's anything decent.
Schoop is an unknown.

You corncobs value prospects way too much.

The chances of those three coming anywhere close to Lee is slim and none and if they are, its years away.

Look at the successful teams (hint: Oakland and Tampa Bay have the best records in the AL, also have the 2nd and 3rd lowest payrolls) and how they are doing things. Young, cost-controlled talent is how smart clubs do it.

Giving up 6-years of team control on Bundy and Gausman for 3 years of (slightly) overpaying Cliff Lee, when that's not even guaranteed to put you over the top because the playoffs are a crapshoot anyway? No thanks.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

You know who would be a lock for my rotation as my #1 guy.

Cliff Lee.

Didn't Baltimore go through this with Zach Britton and Brian Matusz. If you can acquire something thats already elite...you get it. We ain't talking about a bum here or a one year wonder or even a mid-level player. We talkin' bout an ace.

Also, take into account you have a better chance winning this year, or next year with Lee than you do in those two years with Goose and Bundy.

None of them had the billing of a true "ace" that both Bundy and Gausman had.

Like I said, I would be reluctant to deal one. I would heavily consider it. Both? Nope, not going to do it, even if I had the farm system depth of a better system.