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A different take on player evaluation

RyanLeaf16

RyanLeaf16

#DoSomething
I've been messing around for the last several weeks trying to create a measure of a players on-field performance. The basic stats that the NFL records are, IMVHO, stale. I ended up consulting with a buddy of mine in Nebraska who works in this field and we came up with a way to evaluate a players performance. We are still working on it and are breaking it down by position. We also weighted each categorey based off of position. Anyway, I thought I would share with you guys what we have so far. No haters please, I am not claiming that this is the end-all, be-all of evaluating NFL talent. Just a different perspective. I'm just going to post the top 10 for DL and WR's in the NFC as that is as far as we have gotten.

Note that the numbers associated with a WR are much higher than that of a lineman due to the larger numbers associated with the stat categories used. The numbers corresponding to the players does not mean that player x is better than player y - it just means he performed better last season based off the factors we calculated.

Top 10 NFC WR's for 2009 NFL season according to FAR:

1. Austin Miles - 102.2
2. Larry Fitzgerald - 84.85
3. Roddy White - 84.30
4. Greg Jennings - 82.5
5. Marques Colston - 78.3
6. Sidney Rice - 77.65
7. Desean Jackson - 75.2
8. Anquan Boldin - 75.05
9. Donald Driver - 73.6
10. Steve Smith (NYG) - 72.15


Top 10 NFC DL for 2009 NFL season according to FAR:

1. Jared Allen - 18.17
2. Andre Carter - 14.92
3. Trent Cole - 14.58
4. Will Smith - 14.33
5. Julius Peppers - 13.17
6. Brian Orakpo - 12.42
7. Justin Tuck - 11.92
8. Ray Edwards - 11.67
9. Jay Ratliff - 11.25
10. Jonathan Babineaux - 11.00
 
Im assuming this is just basic productivity in general? If so, I see no problems with the list for WR's, not a actually a problem with the DL either, just a bit shocked Andre is where he is.
 
So this means Roddy White was playing on Fitzgerald's level last season. Hell yeah. and Jonathan Babineaux is soooo under rated.
 
JeremyHight said:
Austin Miles >>> Miles Austin
Click to expand...

Thanks for the correction. Not sure why I listed it wrong. Maybe b/c I was rushing out the door when I posted? IDK though...

Tengo Juego said:
So, what is FAR? You explained what you and your buddy did, but not how you did it. I'm curious.
Click to expand...

FAR stands for Field Awareness Rating.

PEYMAN18 said:
I am surprised to see no Andre Johnson for WR and Dwight Freeney on DL. Didn't Orakpo play LB for Washington last year?
Click to expand...

NFC only. Orakpo was 50/50 with our evals as I know he did play some on the line last year.

Fox1994 said:
So give us an idea as to how you did it? lol. You don't have to give us the formula.

 
Yes you do.
Click to expand...

We simply looked at each position and then weighted the stat categories that are most important to that position accordingly. So each position is a little different. Some stats are not considered for certain positions (i.e. INTs for DL, etc.).
 
J.Hen said:
So this means Roddy White was playing on Fitzgerald's level last season. Hell yeah. and Jonathan Babineaux is soooo under rated.
Click to expand...


No he didn't. This guy's formula only measures productivity, the formula doesn't take into account any of the mistakes or negatives, and Roddy White has a lot of them.

Roddy White was statistically 65th among WR's for blocking. He was also:

-22nd in drops (6)

-75th in percentage of balls caught

- 3rd in offensive penalties (7)

His cumulative rating for all categories was 35th. Is Roddy White only the 35th best WR in football? No, he's probably a top 12 WR at this point.


Source: http://profootballfocus.com/by_posi...e=r&runpass=&teamid=-1&numsnaps=25&numgames=1
 
Last edited:
hoodyallen said:
No he didn't. This guy's formula only measures productivity, the formula doesn't take into account any of the mistakes or negatives, and Roddy White has a lot of them.

Roddy White was statistically 65th among WR's for blocking. He was also:

-22nd in drops (6)

-75th in percentage of balls caught

- 3rd in offensive penalties (7)

His cumulative rating for all categories was 35th. Is Roddy White only the 35th best WR in football? No, he's probably a top 12 WR at this point.


Source: http://profootballfocus.com/by_posi...e=r&runpass=&teamid=-1&numsnaps=25&numgames=1
Click to expand...


Wow cool it with the negative vibes man. He's still arguably the most important piece of ATL's offense, he has been for the past 3 years and even more so over the past 2 with Matt Ryan's production.

Roddy White = top 8
 
J.Hen said:
Wow cool it with the negative vibes man. He's still arguably the most important piece of ATL's offense, he has been for the past 3 years and even more so over the past 2 with Matt Ryan's production.

Roddy White = top 8
Click to expand...

My bad, didn't think I was being negative. I could go all Senser like with my sports discussion, but I was just trying to put the facts out there.
 
hoodyallen said:
No he didn't. This guy's formula only measures productivity, the formula doesn't take into account any of the mistakes or negatives, and Roddy White has a lot of them.

Roddy White was statistically 65th among WR's for blocking. He was also:

-22nd in drops (6)

-75th in percentage of balls caught

- 3rd in offensive penalties (7)

His cumulative rating for all categories was 35th. Is Roddy White only the 35th best WR in football? No, he's probably a top 12 WR at this point.


Source: http://profootballfocus.com/by_posi...e=r&runpass=&teamid=-1&numsnaps=25&numgames=1
Click to expand...

:jonesy:
 
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