Warner2BruceTD
2011 Poster Of The Year
Seattle is said to be interested in Reds pitching coach Bryan Price for their manager opening. He's also in the mix for the Reds, and said to be the early front runner. I think how the Girardi situation plays out will have a lot to do with how it all shakes out. All four teams with openings will be hot for Girardi, obviously. He isn't going to Seattle. That leaves Cubs (history), Nats (the best overall situation because of Harper & Stras), Reds (the most viable contender right now).
Word out of Cincy is Price favors Chapman as a starter. He's been pushing for that for two years. That was the plan this year (see: Broxton contract), until Chapman told the braintrust he wanted to close. At that point, Dusty preferred to keep him where he was most comfortable, and with six viable starters on the team already, Jocketty & Price conceded defeat.
Arroyo is history. Great Red. Fantastic trade, and a solid rotation anchor for many years. I tip my cap, and hope he throws those wacky spitters & vasoline balls for many more years in a giant NL West ballpark.
That leaves Cueto, Latos, Bailey. Rotation locks, all Cy Young darkhorses (new site meme). But seriously, those guys are really good.
So with Leake & Cingrani in the fold, where does that leave Chapman? You can never have enough starters, but somebody is headed to the pen.
Well, Chapman clearly has more upside than Leake, who is essentially a 25-year old Arroyo, i.e. a league average starter who throws slop & will give you 200 innings of 105 ERA+ most years. He struggles out of the pen. In a era where the 6th guy out of a good bullpen throws 97 mph, Leake....doesn't. He's also slow to warm up. In short, dude is a starter.
One solution, is make Cingrani the closer. I mean, the dude throws one viable pitch, a 93 mph fastball that looks like it's 98. I think he proved he can start, but how long can he play that shell game? As a closer, he can scrap the comically bad breaking ball that nobody ever swings at that he throws just to say he throws it. His career 10.6 K/9 & 1.103 WHIP certainly play well as a relief ace.
The other solution, is trade Leake. Seems like yesterday that Leake shocked baseball and cracked the Reds rotation straight out of Arizona St in 2010. Well, he's been in that rotation for FOUR YEARS now, and is now entering his expensive arbitration years. The ones where even bums get paid. League average starters who never get hurt who have logged nearly 700 innings in four seasons really get paid. He already made over $3M last season. He will get $5-$6M minimum next season (based on what Bailey got, and at the same point in each career Leake is significantly better). Cingrani will make around $500k. That's a huge net savings, and Cingrani will probably be better anyway. If you are going to trade Leake, the time is now, with two years of team control remaining, coming off what is probably his best possible season.
Trading Leake means Broxton closes. Eww. Dicey proposition, but take a look around at some of the playoff teams around baseball and you see plenty of dicey closer propositions (Cleveland, Detroit, St Louis, Boston burned through 19 guys, etc). A great closer is truly a luxury. The 9th would be quite a bit less flashy next season, but you'd have to live with it.
Of course, you could trade perhaps your best trade chip of all. Chapman.
Chapman could net you a nice haul of prospect geeks from a team who think they could start him, or maybe even fill the impending CF (or LF or RH power bat) hole. If the dude is dead set on not wanting to start, i'm not opposed to moving him. Because reliever.
The best potential rotation, with incredible upside, is this...
Cueto
Latos
Bailey
Chapman
Cingrani
...but holy shit is that volatile. If Cingrani's shell game comes apart, no biggie, he's the fifth starter. Very few teams have a good fifth starter, the Reds have been very lucky in that regard the past few years to have no rotation holes. The issue, is if the league catches up to Cingrani, and the Cuban Missile fails to launch. Presuming Leake would be traded, now you're fucked. Robert Stephenson & Nick Travieso are not going to be ready till '15 at the earliest.
My preference is that the Reds hire Price - now. I like Girardi, but I think the Reds will be his third choice at best, and I happen to think Price is a rising star. And, he'll likely start Chapman. It's year five. It's time to find out either way if he can do it.
Word out of Cincy is Price favors Chapman as a starter. He's been pushing for that for two years. That was the plan this year (see: Broxton contract), until Chapman told the braintrust he wanted to close. At that point, Dusty preferred to keep him where he was most comfortable, and with six viable starters on the team already, Jocketty & Price conceded defeat.
Arroyo is history. Great Red. Fantastic trade, and a solid rotation anchor for many years. I tip my cap, and hope he throws those wacky spitters & vasoline balls for many more years in a giant NL West ballpark.
That leaves Cueto, Latos, Bailey. Rotation locks, all Cy Young darkhorses (new site meme). But seriously, those guys are really good.
So with Leake & Cingrani in the fold, where does that leave Chapman? You can never have enough starters, but somebody is headed to the pen.
Well, Chapman clearly has more upside than Leake, who is essentially a 25-year old Arroyo, i.e. a league average starter who throws slop & will give you 200 innings of 105 ERA+ most years. He struggles out of the pen. In a era where the 6th guy out of a good bullpen throws 97 mph, Leake....doesn't. He's also slow to warm up. In short, dude is a starter.
One solution, is make Cingrani the closer. I mean, the dude throws one viable pitch, a 93 mph fastball that looks like it's 98. I think he proved he can start, but how long can he play that shell game? As a closer, he can scrap the comically bad breaking ball that nobody ever swings at that he throws just to say he throws it. His career 10.6 K/9 & 1.103 WHIP certainly play well as a relief ace.
The other solution, is trade Leake. Seems like yesterday that Leake shocked baseball and cracked the Reds rotation straight out of Arizona St in 2010. Well, he's been in that rotation for FOUR YEARS now, and is now entering his expensive arbitration years. The ones where even bums get paid. League average starters who never get hurt who have logged nearly 700 innings in four seasons really get paid. He already made over $3M last season. He will get $5-$6M minimum next season (based on what Bailey got, and at the same point in each career Leake is significantly better). Cingrani will make around $500k. That's a huge net savings, and Cingrani will probably be better anyway. If you are going to trade Leake, the time is now, with two years of team control remaining, coming off what is probably his best possible season.
Trading Leake means Broxton closes. Eww. Dicey proposition, but take a look around at some of the playoff teams around baseball and you see plenty of dicey closer propositions (Cleveland, Detroit, St Louis, Boston burned through 19 guys, etc). A great closer is truly a luxury. The 9th would be quite a bit less flashy next season, but you'd have to live with it.
Of course, you could trade perhaps your best trade chip of all. Chapman.
Chapman could net you a nice haul of prospect geeks from a team who think they could start him, or maybe even fill the impending CF (or LF or RH power bat) hole. If the dude is dead set on not wanting to start, i'm not opposed to moving him. Because reliever.
The best potential rotation, with incredible upside, is this...
Cueto
Latos
Bailey
Chapman
Cingrani
...but holy shit is that volatile. If Cingrani's shell game comes apart, no biggie, he's the fifth starter. Very few teams have a good fifth starter, the Reds have been very lucky in that regard the past few years to have no rotation holes. The issue, is if the league catches up to Cingrani, and the Cuban Missile fails to launch. Presuming Leake would be traded, now you're fucked. Robert Stephenson & Nick Travieso are not going to be ready till '15 at the earliest.
My preference is that the Reds hire Price - now. I like Girardi, but I think the Reds will be his third choice at best, and I happen to think Price is a rising star. And, he'll likely start Chapman. It's year five. It's time to find out either way if he can do it.
