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A-Rod's steep decline

  • Thread starter Thread starter ThomasTomasz
  • Start date Start date
T

ThomasTomasz

Guest
 
There are players who sign their last big contract and then shut it down emotionally, and in their preparation, and Alex Rodriguez will never be that guy. He will always diligently do his offseason work, always fight to get better, always show up to the ballpark to take extra grounders.

Rodriguez is in year five of his 10-year, $275 million contract that he signed with the Yankees after the 2007 season, and there is growing concern regarding how long he can be an effective player.

He still gets on base, because of his ability to work the count and take a walk; his current on-base percentage is .384. But year by year, his power appears to be diminishing, as reflected in his slugging percentage.

2007: .645
2008: .573
2009: .532
2010: .506
2011: .461
2012: .412

His power is serving as an anchor for his plummeting OPS:

2007: 1.067
2008: .965
2009: .934
2010: .847
2011: .823
2012: .796

Since the start of the 2011 season, Rodriguez has 21 homers in 509 at-bats, and he has a slugging percentage of .448. That ranks 79th among 222 hitters with at least 450 plate appearances, according to Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Info.

Rodriguez turns 37 in July, and if he wanted an example of a hitter who could have a resurgence in his late 30s, all he'd need to do is glance to his left on the Yankees' infield; Derek Jeter has been on a roll since the middle of last season, after spraying a series of groundballs early in 2011.

But as the Yankees plan ahead and make decisions about the composition of their lineup, it's not clear that they can count on Rodriguez to be an elite power hitter anymore.

It's also not clear whether Rodriguez -- who has 634 homers, and is 26 away from Willie Mays's 660 career homers -- will have enough left to challenge the home run marks of Babe Ruth (714), Hank Aaron (755) or Barry Bonds (762).

Rodriguez is owed about $135 million for the rest of his current deal, and unless his trend line reverses, there will probably be a time when the Yankees have to decide how much of his contract they will be willing to eat.
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It's almost as if players regress exponentially with each season they play past their 30th birthday. Perhaps teams should take heed to this phenomenon when considering whether or not to offer long-term contracts to veterans.
 
NAHSTE said:
It's almost as if players regress exponentially with each season they play past their 30th birthday. Perhaps teams should take heed to this phenomenon when considering whether or not to offer long-term contracts to veterans.
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It's not like that's something new. Most guys that seemed to get better in their mid to late 30s coincidentally did so during the 'roid era.
 
Warner2BruceTD said:
I'm sure the Yankees understand this. In reality, there is nothing wrong with a .384 OBA & .800 OPS.
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There is when you're paying 60% above market rate for those skills. And don't give me the "who cares they are the Yankees" crap ... No matter who you are, it's not smart business to pay your employees double what they are worth.
 
NAHSTE said:
There is when you're paying 60% above market rate for those skills. And don't give me the "who cares they are the Yankees" crap ... No matter who you are, it's not smart business to pay your employees double what they are worth.
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...but it's true in this case.

I'd rather overpay for .384/.800 than pay fair market value for .310/.720. Especially if i'm the Yankees.

The reason you don't want to overpay players is so you don't get stuck with holes in other places that you can't fill. Whatever holes the Yankees currently have, have nothing to do with lack of funds. They had the most expensive 7th inning pitcher in baseball two weeks ago until Mariano got hurt.

Market rate is set by all 30 clubs. I'm not sure why people insist on treating all 30 equally when it comes down to contracts. Wen the Royals and Pirates and Mariners and whoever else are contributing to said "market rate", it should not apply to the Yankees. They set their own rate.

If Yahoo can afford to "overpay" a hot CEO from a start up, and pay him over the market rate, they will. Their balance sheet dictates their market rate, not the balance sheet of the start up.

I'm not even sure i'm talking directly about ARod at this point, more than this general bullshit idea of "market rate" that some writers take too far. Each situation is different. If a team chooses to overpay the going rate for a 2.5 win SS, and it doesn't hinder how they build the rest of their team, honestly, who gives a fuck? If they can afford it, why pay fair market share to an inferior player? So Dave Cameron can say it's a cost effective, smart contract? Why should that matter? I'll take the better player.
 
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