BCS Dilemma.

[Woy]

This is posted in my blog (http://woysword.blogspot.com) but I'm hoping it will spark some discussion on here as well. As a Penn State fan, I am not in favor of this team going to a BCS bowl as we don't deserve it.​

The BCS is a business.

And that business might get Penn State into the Orange Bowl.

No, I'm joking one bit. Penn State has a legitimate chance at a BCS Bowl and in fact, will most likely be an at-large if they beat Michigan State next weekend.

It's hard to comprehend with their on-the-field success. The Nittany Lions have lost to the two best teams they've played all season and don't really have a statement win like a lot of other at-large candidates do. However, there is something they do have...more than a lot of other schools have.

Money. Penn State generates more revenue than most teams in the nation. This is a huge factor with the Orange Bowl selection committee, who has reportedly not been making enough money lately. And with the direction the college football season has been taking this year, there isn't really any other legit at-large bids out there. Hell, two mid-majors could possibly make the big bowls!

The BCS requires you to be in the top 14 of the rankings in order to be eligible for a BCS bowl. The conferences can not have more than two bids, which would leave out LSU, who would be the 3rd team after Florida and Alabama. After the weekend's games, Penn State will most likely move into the top 14.

Now the question is this: is there any team that could jump them as an at-large? Let's say Cincinnati wins the Big East, Oregon wins the Pac-10, Texas wins the Big 12, Georgia Tech wins the ACC, and Florida wins the SEC. Add mid-majors TCU and Boise State who will most likely go undefeated.

National Championship: Florida/Texas
Rose Bowl: Ohio State/Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Alabama/TCU
Fiesta Bowl: Cincinnati/Boise State
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech/?

The only conference that doesn't have an automatic slot in a certain BCS Bowl is the Big East. For example, the Rose Bowl takes the Big Ten and Pac-10 teams, Sugar Bowl takes a SEC team, Fiesta Bowl takes a Big 12, and the Orange Bowl takes an ACC team. The Big East is the "first at-large" team technically. With Texas in the national title game, Cincinnati would most likely take the Big 12's slot in the Fiesta Bowl.

So let's look deeper into this. Who could the Orange Bowl possibly take? LSU is out because of the two teams per conference rule. The Big 12 has been sub-par this year with Texas being the only legitimate team out of that conference. Therefore they will not get a second bid.

Same way with the ACC, since there is no way they will take two teams unless Georgia Tech loses in the conference championship game. Even then, they would have to compete with Penn State as an at-large and although they would have a better resume, it's that money factor that kicks in. Penn State would get the slot.

That also is the Big East's dilemma. Would they take two teams from that conference? Hell no. Cincinnati would be a possibly if Pitt would win over them, but even then as a (for the most part) start-up BCS school, the revenue factor would bump the Nittany Lions over the Bearcats.

Remember that Boise State is in my projections as a BCS team. They are a toss-up however because of a weak conference schedule and only one big win over the Oregon Ducks. Penn State brings in more fans and money than the Broncos so they would also get the nod if it came to those two.

It might not be fair, it might make the BCS look worse, but face the facts - if Penn State beats Michigan State, it's going to happen. Like I said, the BCS isn't just a ranking system but it's also a business.

And this just in: Phil Grosz of BWI (Blue & White Illustrated) reports if PSU beats MSU and is in the top 14 of the BCS (which they should be) then there's a 95% chance they will be playing in the Orange Bowl.

 

[Goober]

Question. Why is it Penn St over Wisconsin? They'll both likely be 10-2, both with losses against Iowa and Ohio State. Penn St has a more recent loss.

 

[HeDGi]

Good read

 

[Woy]

Question. Why is it Penn St over Wisconsin? They'll both likely be 10-2, both with losses against Iowa and Ohio State. Penn St has a more recent loss.

Probably because of the hype surrounding the Nittany Lions at the beginning of the season. They were ranked higher to start the year and continued to stay higher than Wisconsin throughout the season.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings

And there it is. BCS rankings have PSU at #14 and Wisky at #16. Basically win and you're in for the Nittany Lions next week against Michigan State.

 

[Saluki]

very nice, i really want texas to get upset in one of these last games so TCU can get a shot at the BCS title

 

[Len B]

Would love to see Boise State/TCU/Cincinnati occupy 38% of the BCS. That might finally get all the higher ups in the big conferences to demand a playoff.

 

[Woy]

very nice, i really want texas to get upset in one of these last games so TCU can get a shot at the BCS title

Something that can really throw this for a loop is if Texas wins out and loses in the Big 12 championship game. The North team would get the automatic bid and Texas would certainly get an at-large, which would knock either PSU or Boise out of the equation.

 

[Goober]

Wisconsin has a much better strength of schedule compare to Penn St. Wisconsin is ranked 19th, Penn St is 52nd. Just saying...

 

[Woy]

Wisconsin has a much better strength of schedule compare to Penn St. Wisconsin is ranked 19th, Penn St is 52nd. Just saying...

I understand where you're getting at, but PSU is eligible for the BCS now at #14. They have one of the best fanbases in all of college football and just like the article states, the Orange Bowl is hurting for money right now. They need a team with a following such as PSU to reel in some dough.

It's not because of records, talent, or ability. It's strictly a well-thought out business decision, nothing more.

 

[Bear Pand]

Question. Why is it Penn St over Wisconsin? They'll both likely be 10-2, both with losses against Iowa and Ohio State. Penn St has a more recent loss.

Another question is why didn't Penn State play Wisky this year. I know the answer, 8 conference games and 10 possible opponents, but it's ridiculous. ACC/SEC/BIG 12 all have a conference championship game. PAC 10 / Big East schools play everyone in their conference. Big 10 is messed up.

Also preseason polls need to go.

 

[Goober]

Another question is why didn't Penn State play Wisky this year. I know the answer, 8 conference games and 10 possible opponents, but it's ridiculous. ACC/SEC/BIG 12 all have a conference championship game. PAC 10 / Big East schools play everyone in their conference. Big 10 is messed up.

Also preseason polls need to go.

I'm in favor of all the Big conferences who get automatic bids to the BCS having a championship game. Add a 12th team to the big 10, split them into 2 divisions and we'd be set.

 

[Woy]

Another question is why didn't Penn State play Wisky this year. I know the answer, 8 conference games and 10 possible opponents, but it's ridiculous. ACC/SEC/BIG 12 all have a conference championship game. PAC 10 / Big East schools play everyone in their conference. Big 10 is messed up.

Also preseason polls need to go.

The Big 10 will not get a conference title game until they add a 12th member. That way they can split into two divisions just like the other conferences.

Rutgers has been rumored for quite some time as possibly switching over.

 

[Sharkweather]

I'm jumping on the Kansas, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Florida State bandwagon.

TCU needs to crash the party!

 

[Pitty]

The Big 10 will not get a conference title game until they add a 12th member. That way they can split into two divisions just like the other conferences.

Rutgers has been rumored for quite some time as possibly switching over.

Will never happen. The NCAA won't allow a 7 team conference. It's more likely that the Big East and Big Ten combine to form two separate conferences than Rutgers leaving the Big East.

And just because a guy from a Penn State site reports that Penn State makes the Orange Bowl doesn't make it true. There's still a lot of football to be played. Far from a 95% chance.

Also Penn State may not even be in the Top 14, Two wins from Stanford (who plays #25 Cal and Notre Dame) will certainly leapfrog PSU with two wins. If Iowa can beat Minnesota they too will still hold an edge over PSU as playing Minn and MSU is essentially a wash.

 

[Cryolemon]

I hope both Florida and Texas get upset, and TCU win out, just to see if it would be a TCU / Alabama title game. The unfortunate side effect if that happened would be that it would restore faith in the BCS...

 

[Senser81]

Good read, but I don't really care if Penn State makes the Orange Bowl or not. I won't be watching the Orange Bowl either way. Adding the National Championship basically made all the other bowls meaningless. Its like having a tournament which only consists of one game. One of the polls has to automatically select the winner of the National Championship game as its champion...the ultimate sign of guilt.

 

[Woy]

Will never happen. The NCAA won't allow a 7 team conference. It's more likely that the Big East and Big Ten combine to form two separate conferences than Rutgers leaving the Big East.

And just because a guy from a Penn State site reports that Penn State makes the Orange Bowl doesn't make it true. There's still a lot of football to be played. Far from a 95% chance.

Also Penn State may not even be in the Top 14, Two wins from Stanford (who plays #25 Cal and Notre Dame) will certainly leapfrog PSU with two wins. If Iowa can beat Minnesota they too will still hold an edge over PSU as playing Minn and MSU is essentially a wash.

You make a good point with Stanford. However there are a few teams in the top 14 now that can fall. Oregon still has Arizona and their rival Arizona State. Pitt still has Cincinnati. Oklahoma State has Oklahoma. And Iowa already lost to Northwestern, so I wouldn't put it past them if they lost to Minnesota.

Grosz didn't just pull that 95% out of his ass, you know? He has been speaking to officials of the Orange, Sugar and Fiesta Bowl and that's what he got out of it.

And you don't think if Rutgers left the Big East, they would just find a team from the MAC or C-USA to replace them? How did they get all the new teams when Miami, VT, and BC left?

Once again, I am not saying that Penn State should be in a BCS bowl. But if they beat MSU, they're more than likely going to play in the Orange Bowl.

 

[Pitty]

I understand the point about the Big East, but the conference won't let another team, especially one that has bee consistently good for the past 5 years just slip away. It's the only reason they haven't left yet. Schiano wants to be in the Big Ten but the BE officials aren't going to allow another poaching to take place, especially after the backlash for the 2004 deal. It is more likely that a major two conference overhaul would take place.

Also, a factor that you have overlooked is equally as important in the financial aspect. Although PSU fans do travel well, television revenue for the bowl games generate much more income than ticket sales. If PSU does get picked at #13-14 in the BCS, the backlash from ESPN and other sports outlets may prove too costly for the comittee to create a matchup that no one will be interested in.

 

[Woy]

All good points.

Penn State needs to beat Michigan State first before all of this shit gets really tossed around, though.

 

[Sportsbuck]

Will never happen. The NCAA won't allow a 7 team conference. It's more likely that the Big East and Big Ten combine to form two separate conferences than Rutgers leaving the Big East.

The NCAA doesn't have a say in the matter... Rutgers would join ithe Big Ten and the Big East would try to find someone to take thier place like they did when BC, Miami, and VT left.

And it really doesn't matter how pissed the Big East office would be at Rutgers.. they are free to make whatever decision they want to.