Brian Kenny, Bill James, Joe Posnanski panel discussion from SABR conference

[Warner2BruceTD]

http://sabr.org/latest/2013-sabr-analytics-conference-highlights-analytics-super-panel

72 minutes of audio. Some great stuff here. They discuss WAR/Win Shares/boiling players down to one number, Joe Torre's awful lineup vs Mexico, Bill goes on one of his classic platoon matchup rants concerning RP usage, and more.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

James - Houston will be winning 95 games per season in five years

James - Teams would gain more by carrying an extra OF or extra UTIL player rather than LOOGY's

Posnanski - Jeff Francour should not be an everyday player, but should play vs LHP. The Royals would win more games if they platooned him with a LH hitter and sacrificed the 12th pitcher roster spot.

James - Earl Weaver used to carry a LH hitting 3rd C who would hit 12 HR's per year. That is far more valuable than a LOOGY.

James - current minor leagues should be revamped to where low levels are not team specific teams run by MLB clubs

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Somebody asked about closers and using your closer in other situations other than the 9th.

James said "maybe teams already are and you just don't know it". He went on to say that Francona always thought of Bard as his "relief ace", and Paplebon was simply the "9th inning guy". So Francona, in effect, was doing what we always scream about. Using his "best guy" in what he saw as the highest leverage situations.

Interesting. Maybe some of these managers have us (and even their own pitchers) duped, and have been doing this all along.

 

[Slateman]

Somebody asked about closers and using your closer in other situations other than the 9th.

James said "maybe teams already are and you just don't know it". He went on to say that Francona always thought of Bard as his "relief ace", and Paplebon was simply the "9th inning guy". So Francona, in effect, was doing what we always scream about. Using his "best guy" in what he saw as the highest leverage situations.

Interesting. Maybe some of these managers have us (and even their own pitchers) duped, and have been doing this all along.

I think the evolution of this is going to be what the Braves had in 2011 and the Nationals are attempting this year: Multiple guys who have "closer" stuff, but who aren't being paid like a closer. Essentially forcing the other team to do something in the first six inning, or the game is over.

 

[EmpireWF]

Two most interesting things brought up was the idea to (sort of) revert MiLB to what it was like a couple generations ago and the role of the front office amongst the managerial staff and players on a day-to-day basis.

- On MiLB, there's no doubt there's less of an emphasis on winning at that level because practically every level is about the big league club maneuvering guys around so that they're on pace to some day help them out. I don't know how the guy's idea to essentially revert the system back to the old days (where minor league teams would sign guys, they'd play and somewhere along the way, MLB teams would have to beat one another to pick the guy up) could be implemented today tho.

In theory, it would immensely help MiLB teams in small markets where they can legitimately focus on wins and losses and not just which prospect is playing today so you would imagine attendance improves. Hell, the majority if not all of minor league baseball today is promoted in combination between wacky PR/promotions and big name prospects aside from just being a cheap ticket to entertain the family for x number of nights during the spring and/or summer.

How could such a system (no organizational links to teams) work so that the high spending teams don't always end up with the big talent?


- James talked about the hesitance to really intertwine managerial staff/players with the front office for fear that the manager's authority goes to shit and the players have a number of heads to pay attention to instead of their immediate coaches. Of course, the other guy talked about how (essentially) the only thing that matters is INFORMATION and if an assistant GM can offer up key info, they have every right to be in the dugout or in the clubhouse on a regular basis.

I lean more towards James, especially in the markets with pain in the ass media, I can't imagine (for example), a staff member of the GM having a regular spot beside the coaching staff. Just screams too many cooks in the kitchen.

 

[Villain]

Somebody asked about closers and using your closer in other situations other than the 9th.

James said "maybe teams already are and you just don't know it". He went on to say that Francona always thought of Bard as his "relief ace", and Paplebon was simply the "9th inning guy". So Francona, in effect, was doing what we always scream about. Using his "best guy" in what he saw as the highest leverage situations.

Interesting. Maybe some of these managers have us (and even their own pitchers) duped, and have been doing this all along.

Dodgers are doing this with Kenley Jansen.

 

[NAHSTE]

I think the evolution of this is going to be what the Braves had in 2011 and the Nationals are attempting this year: Multiple guys who have "closer" stuff, but who aren't being paid like a closer.

Except they are paying big money for a "closer" ...