Can Ovechkin break Gretzky's Goal Record?

[killgod]

He's got 300 goals and is 25 years old. 50 goals a season over his first 6 years with a high of 65.

I think he has a couple more 60+ goal seasons in him, which could help offset him in the future if he has some more 30-35 goal seasons as he gets older.

On this pace, he'll be the goal scoring champion at 35 years old and I think it's something he wants to accomplish someday.


Will he do it?

 

[Ravin]

It is hard to tell because a lot also depends on the team around him. Plus the way the game is now, faster, strong, hard, it might finally catch up to him when he gets into his 30's.

We were talking last night about the 1993 playoffs, and how in that regular season 21 players reached 100 points+ mark and 14 players reached the 50+ goal mark. It is basically unheard of now a days. Right now as it stands, there is 1 player with 100 points, and at most I could figure maybe 2 others might hit the 100 point mark. In 1993, Mario lead the way with 160 points.

I just don't think today's NHL lets players break that record anymore. You got to keep a pace going I think that is better then what Wayne did because I doubt players are going to play as long. And as I said to start, also have to have the people with you to make it happen.

 

[Tailback U]

I don't think so. I think the NHL is a few years away from entering another "dead puck era."

Penalties are going down each year. 2011 has seen the lowest amount of power plays since 1980. NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

I also think it's pretty obvious that NHL goalies are better than ever.

Nonetheless, what Ovi has done is special and even moreso when you consider the fact that he would have done this earlier had he not lost a season due to the lockout.

5th player to reach 300+ goals and 300+ in his first 5 seasons: Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

Fascinating to look at his stats compared to those other players in their first 5 seasons. I knew Ovi shot the puck a lot, but I had no idea he shot that much more than those guys.

 

[leaffan]

Hard to say. The way he's changed his game up defensively and how more teams are focusing on making sure he doesn't have a clear path to net anymore on top of him starting to show signs of wear and tear at 25 he's going to need to keep up a pretty high pace for many years.

They made the note of it last night during the leaf game that after 6 seasons gretzky had 430 goals in his career. Just rediculous numbers.

 

[killgod]

So where does he finish ?

600? 700? 800?

Hard to think he's already scored HALF his career goals isn't it?

 

[leaffan]

I don't think so. I think the NHL is a few years away from entering another "dead puck era."

Penalties are going down each year. 2011 has seen the lowest amount of power plays since 1980.
Nonetheless, what Ovi has done is special and even moreso when you consider the fact that he would have done this earlier had he not lost a season due to the lockout.

5th player to reach 300+ goals and 300+ in his first 5 seasons: Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

Fascinating to look at his stats compared to those other players in their first 5 seasons. I knew Ovi shot the puck a lot, but I had no idea he shot that much more than them.

Frankly thats because things like hooking and holding got called so much in the begining that players don't do it anymore like they used to.

I watched the 2002 cup finals on the nhl network the other day and watching guys trying to go through the neutral zone was like trying to go through a mine field. The amount of hooking was hilarious.

 

[Tailback U]

Kind of but not really when you think about it. There's no way he averages 50 goals per season throughout his career.

I'm too lazy to do math. How many goals per season would he need to average to break Gretzky's record?

Ovechkin needs 594 to tie 99.

He would basically need to average 59 goals over the next 10 seasons to hit 894 by the time he is 35.

Let's say he plays until he is 40. He would need to average about 40 goals per season.

So in other words, no way.

 

[leaffan]

So where does he finish ?

600? 700? 800?

Hard to think he's already scored HALF his career goals isn't it?

Not really. Gretzky scored just under half in his first 6 years. Took him 14 more years to get to 894

 

[killgod]

Not really. Gretzky scored just under half in his first 6 years. Took him 15 more years to get to 894

I think that has to do more so with Gretzky being a playmaker first and that being more of his focus as he got older. If Gretzky was more of goal scorer he'd have scored 1,000+. His amount of assists to goals is a testament to how often he's in scoring positions yet passing the puck.

Ovechkin is a goal scorer and his decline in production will be much slower than Gretzky's was IMO.

 

[Tailback U]

Frankly thats because things like hooking and holding got called so much in the begining that players don't do it anymore like they used to.

I watched the 2002 cup finals on the nhl network the other day and watching guys trying to go through the neutral zone was like trying to go through a mine field. The amount of hooking was hilarious.

Definitely true to an extent but not the sole reason.

Canucks powerplay opportunities this season:

First 27 games: 108 PPs, 4.00/game
Second 27 games: 80 PPs, 2.96/game
Last 25 games (3 left): 64 PPs, 2.56/game

There's no way they cleaned up their play that much. Refs are putting their whistles away. They don't even call interference anymore when a forward dumps the puck and has to skate completely around the DMan who is trying to block him from getting deep with his hands and body.

Another stat that I can't find a source for:

The Capitals this season have had more games with Zero power play opportunities than the last 15 years combined.

 

[leaffan]

Avg Goals Per Game stat:

Gretzky: 0.6
Ovey: 0.63
Lemieux: 0.75

 

[leaffan]

Definitely true to an extent but not the sole reason.

Canucks powerplay opportunities this season:

First 27 games: 108 PPs, 4.00/game
Second 27 games: 80 PPs, 2.96/game
Last 25 games (3 left): 64 PPs, 2.56/game

There's no way they cleaned up their play that much. Refs are putting their whistles away. They don't even call interference anymore when a forward dumps the puck and has to skate completely around the DMan who is trying to block him from getting deep with his hands and body.

Another stat that I can't find a source for:

The Capitals this season have had more games with Zero power play opportunities than the last 15 years combined.

I think (can't confirm it) that interference call was put away to try and slow forwards coming into the zone and giving the defensemen a chance to not get killed.

I have noticed the whole lack of penalties quite a bit this year. If you look at the begining of the year I was constantly bitch at how bad the reffing was and its still the same I just got tired of bitching about it. One of the things that steams me to this day is go watch Plekanec from the habs play on the PK. I swear if it was 6 or 7 years ago that guy would cause his team a 5-3 every time. The shit he gets away with pisses me off.

BTW when are the refs going to start making more calls on jumbo joe... the amount of cheating that guy gets away with (in and out of the faceoff circle) is classic.

 

[Tailback U]

BTW when are the refs going to start making more calls on jumbo joe... the amount of cheating that guy gets away with (in and out of the faceoff circle) is classic.

Don't know exactly what you are referring to. I know he is always trying to do whatever he can to gain position in the faceoff circle but he is probably thrown out of the circle twice as many times as he is able to take one.

I'm actually more surprised that Heatley wasn't on that list of dirty/cheap players. That guy always stays out too long and starts hacking everything around him like a lazy fuck.

 

[dave]

If he had more than one go-to move in the offensive zone, I'd say no.
Which I guess means no.

 

[Ravin]

40 goals per season if he plays for 14 years sounds easy enough, even more so when you add in seasons where he scores 50-60 and takes some off other lower years. But I still think he ends up in about the 750ish area. But it depends how he plays. The young 'naive' ovey is gone. Sure he has his moments, but right now it is about winning the cup and that is all. Personal shit doesn't matter. And I think as he gets older, his pace slows down and he scales it back a bit, because the Capitals high powered offence hasn't worked in the past all that well come playoff time, so eventually, it will need to play a more balanced game.

It's just hard to think that right now, Wayne was almost 200 goals ahead, and that Ovey will make up the ground in his later years.


And plus the other fact...it's a Canadian record. No russians allowed!