T
ThomasTomasz
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From FanGraphs via ESPN Insider
Albert Pujols' decision to leave the St. Louis Cardinals last offseason shocked the baseball world. In 11 years with the franchise, Pujols defined the St. Louis offense. As a Cardinal, he smashed 455 home runs while posting a batting line of .328/.420/.617. Losing a player of that caliber is always difficult to replace, and the Cardinals' offense was expected to struggle without their superstar.
But that hasn't been the case. After losing the best offensive player in baseball, the Cardinals' offense has been even better.
In order to determine whether a team performed better after losing its offensive stud, we can use wRC+, which measures how a team has performed offensively against the league average. League average will always be 100, so if a team's wRC+ is 120, it means that team has been 20 percent better than an average offensive team. wRC+ also adjusts for park and league, making it incredibly useful when comparing players from different years.
In order to determine how teams perform after losing their offensive stars, we looked at the largest contracts handed out to players who have switched teams. We ended up with 12 players, from Alex Rodriguez and his $252 million contract, to Torii Hunter, who received $90 million. In those 12 instances, the team that lost its superstar managed to improve its offensive performance during the following season five times. Some of the improvements were small. The Indians and the Mariners improved their offense by just 1 percent after losing Manny Ramirez and Ken Griffey Jr., respectively. The other teams that improved have experienced a more significant jump in production.
So the fact that the Cardinals' offense has been better without Pujols isn't necessarily surprising, but the rate at which their offense has improved sets them apart more than any other team involved in the sample.
The Cardinals have managed to improve their wRC+ by 6 percent so far this season, which rates as the third-best performance after losing a key offensive contributor. But a closer look reveals that the Cardinals' performance is much more impressive than the teams ahead of them. The 2008 Twins managed to improve their offense by 7 percent after losing Torii Hunter. But with Hunter, the team's wRC+ was just 92, 8 percent worse than the average offense that season. The following season, the Twins offense had nowhere to go but up, even without Hunter.
The only team that experienced a bigger jump in wRC+ was the '01 Mariners, who managed to go from 107 to 117 after losing Alex Rodriguez. But even though the Mariners' improvement was larger, the Cardinals' offense was better in both seasons. Last year, the Cardinals' wRC+ was 111, which ranked fourth in the league. St. Louis has put up a 117 this season, tying the Mariners' mark.
What the Cardinals' offense has done without Pujols is bordering on historic. They are on pace to have the seventh-best offensive season in the past 50 years (though it's worth noting that eight other teams are tied for that slot, including the '01 Mariners). Still, the Cardinals' performance is surprising, considering they didn't do much in free agency after Pujols left.
It does help, however, that their premier signing of the offseason, Carlos Beltran, is on pace for the best offensive performance of his career at age 35. He's already stolen more bases than last season, and he currently leads all National Leaguers with 15 home runs.
But most of St. Louis' improvement has come from players already on the team. After hitting just .231/.298/.348 last season, it looked like Rafael Furcal was nearing the end as a starter. But the 34-year-old has bounced back in a big way, posting a .327/.386/.449 batting line. Yadier Molina continues to grow into one of the best all-around catchers in the game, and Matt Holliday continues to remain an effective option at age 32.
Losing Lance Berkman to injury, who was tremendous in 49 plate appearances, hasn't negatively affected the team. That's because Allen Craig has been even better since returning from injury. Though he's received only 63 plate appearances, Craig's wRC+ of 194 currently leads the team. While he might not end up as the best hitter on the team at season's end, he's proven to be a dangerous threat when healthy.
When Pujols left, the Cardinals were expected to go through some offensive growing pains. Instead, they've improved in impressive fashion. Even though most of the team's improvement has come internally, signing Beltran looks like one of the smartest decisions of the offseason.
If the Cardinals can keep up this performance, they will have posted one of the most prolific offensive performances in recent history. Seeing Pujols in another team's jersey may still upset Cardinals' fans, but the team hasn't skipped a beat without the former star.
