CBS: NBA Embracing Advanced Analytics

[EmpireWF]

Interesting article...here's a snippit

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...d40e24-3d7a-11e3-b0e7-716179a2c2c7_print.html

For the first time this season, the league will station cameras in the rafters of all 30 arenas to help produce more data than ever before. In short, everything on the court can now be quantified. Teams know, for example, that when Kevin Durant is within three feet of a rebound, he comes up with the ball 80 percent of the time. And when Chris Paul has an assist opportunity within 10 feet of the hoop, his teammates convert the field goal 89 percent of the time.

Every decision is considered in terms of risk, reward and value: trades, draft picks, shot selection. For example, number-crunchers all agree teams should shoot more threes — high risk but also high reward. The result? NBA teams averaged 20 three-point attempts per game last season, up 26 percent from a decade ago and more than double the mark from 20 years ago.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

I am definitely interested in seeing how this plays out with players selection going forward and the success therein.

Kelly Olynyk is going to be a good test case.

Also, gotta laugh at...

For example, number-crunchers all agree teams should shoot more threes — high risk but also high reward. The result? NBA teams averaged 20 three-point attempts per game last season, up 26 percent from a decade ago and more than double the mark from 20 years ago.

...college basketball teams have been doing this for ages. Successful underdogs/mid-majors shoot the fuck out of the ball from three.

 

[dell71]

Some of it is interesting, but it feels like it's a couple years too late. The move toward analytics has been going on in the NBA for a number of years, now. The part about shooting the three neglects the fact that the human race has been consistently improving at it over the last twenty (thirty) years to the point where it is an acceptable risk and a weapon where it used to be a last ditch effort. This is particularly true of big guys. It's harder to defend when more people can shoot them.

And that whole opening about how the Sixers' GM watches the game in some revolutionary manner because he said a missed shot was a good one is a crock of shit. That happens on the playground every day and has been forever. Plenty of illiterate amateur ballplayers with no idea of what analytics are understand that a missed shot is not necessarily a bad one. We'll see if he's really revolutionary by the things he actually does with the roster.

The stuff about all the extra cameras is the most intriguing thing here. I'm anxious to see how that impacts things.

 

[Argath]

I'm kind've surprised we don't already have statistics such as contested shot% vs open shot% and where rebounds typically land depending on who's shooting the ball etc etc

Should be interesting to see what they come up with.

 

[FedEx227]

I'm kind've surprised we don't already have statistics such as contested shot% vs open shot% and where rebounds typically land depending on who's shooting the ball etc etc

Should be interesting to see what they come up with.

We do, you just have to pay for it... like you'll have to do with this SportsVU stuff. At least Synergy is affordable, this SportsVU stuff will only be sold to the teams for now.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I am definitely interested in seeing how this plays out with players selection going forward and the success therein.

Kelly Olynyk is going to be a good test case.

Also, gotta laugh at...



...college basketball teams have been doing this for ages. Successful underdogs/mid-majors shoot the fuck out of the ball from three.

I believe it's time to move the three point line back again in the college game.

Watching some of these teams who do nothing but chuck three's is like watching Oregon in CFB. Technically it's basketball, but it's like a hybrid version of basketball. The three is too easy to hit, it's supposed to be a bonus, not a standard length jumper that any guard can hit with decent accuracy.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I believe it's time to move the three point line back again in the college game.

Watching some of these teams who do nothing but chuck three's is like watching Oregon in CFB. Technically it's basketball, but it's like a hybrid version of basketball. The three is too easy to hit, it's supposed to be a bonus, not a standard length jumper that any guard can hit with decent accuracy.

And the flip side of this, is teams that can't shoot keep on chuckin' anyway, which is why you get those super ugly games a lot of the time. Last CBB season was pretty dreadful in terms of game quality, and most of the bad games were two teams that couldn't throw it in the ocean. Move the line back, open up the floor, discourage the three for teams that can't shoot.

 

[Argath]

CBS: NBA Embracing Advanced Analytics

And the flip side of this, is teams that can't shoot keep on chuckin' anyway, which is why you get those super ugly games a lot of the time. Last CBB season was pretty dreadful in terms of game quality, and most of the bad games were two teams that couldn't throw it in the ocean. Move the line back, open up the floor, discourage the three for teams that can't shoot.

Doesn't work like that. All this will do is spread the defense even more and turn the game into just post entry-kick out to the perimeter for an open 3 if needed because there's no way to collapse the paint and return to your man effectively. The fact of the matter is as long as there's a 3 point line, there will be specialized shooters. A lot of the shooters in college can hit NBA 3s already albeit at a slightly lower percentage. However that slightly lower percentage is still gonna be higher than from the post on teams that primarily shoot the 3 because that's what they're built around. You would essentially just have more of those games you hate to see until people get used to the new distance.

The game is fine as it is now. There's no need to change. Teams that live and die by the 3 will never stay consistently successful. They're not perennial contenders like teams such as Duke, Michigan State, UNC, Kansas, Kentucky etc. I love that the little guy can upset those teams but nobody is upsetting people on a consistent basis basing an offense around the 3 as is. Teams are gonna do whatever is most effective for them to win. Moving the 3 point line will do nothing except inflate rebounds for a few years till everyone gets used to the new line.

 

[Jayrock]

And the flip side of this, is teams that can't shoot keep on chuckin' anyway, which is why you get those super ugly games a lot of the time. Last CBB season was pretty dreadful in terms of game quality, and most of the bad games were two teams that couldn't throw it in the ocean. Move the line back, open up the floor, discourage the three for teams that can't shoot.

IMO CBB got dreadful last season because of a lack of foul calls. Too many teams hand checking to stop drives, holding on cuts, too easy to get charges if you do manage to drive, which they've addressed this offseason. As long as the calls stay consistent into March CBB will be better this season.

 

[FedEx227]

Lots of CBB talk in this NBA thread, boys.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

Lots of CBB talk in this NBA thread, boys.

I do think it is a bit silly that the NBA is all of a suddenly, due to analytics, shooting the three ball more because reward outweighs risk...when po'dunk CBB teams have known about this for a long time now.

 

[FedEx227]

I agree. It's an indictment on years of NBA GMs, players, coaches who just assumed that was garbage ball and you should only stoop to that level if you're physically outmatched.

It took a few guys like D'Antonio, overseas guys and a few of the bigs who could shoot from distance to open everyone up.