But the cost of that confidence is huge, as they sign a 35-year-old, no-defense player for three years, and the risk of him declining in that period is so high that it's almost as if they're paying the $37.5 million just to set themselves up to win the division this year.
I could see Chicago scoring another 30 or 40 runs next year between the addition of Adam Dunn and some improvements from returning players (particularly Gordon Beckham, who was on fire when his season ended prematurely), and while I expect Konerko to take a step back, he's significantly better than any other potential first-base or DH option for the White Sox. Neither Konerko nor Dunn is well-suited to play first, but I'd rather play the rangeless Konerko at first than allow Dunn to drop a few dozen throws from Beckham and Alexei Ramirez.
Konerko had a huge contract year, posting career highs in OBP and slugging at age 34 after three years of productive decline. He's never been much of a defender and is the sort of slow, unathletic player who tends to fall off offensively in his mid-30s -- something Konerko has so far avoided -- but he can't escape Father Time forever.
Even in 2011 Konerko's line is much more likely resemble what he produced from 2007 to 2009, when he hit a composite .260/.350/.475. Those are solid numbers, but unspectacular for a first baseman who provides no defensive or baserunning value. If he hits like that for the next three years, the White Sox will be taking a loss in value on the deal (though they did load the contract with deferrals that will spread payments out until 2020), and that's assuming he doesn't actually decline, in which case they'll have an unmovable player in 2013 who's dragging the offense down.
Sox GM Ken Williams told the gathered media here in Orlando that Konerko's deal was also a product of the kind of person he is, and the leader he's been. That's a nice sentiment, and a true one from all indications, but for this deal to look good -- particularly given Williams' statement that the organization is essentially "tapped out" financially this offseason -- an extremely potent White Sox offense in 2011 will need to trump the warmth the organization and fan base feels for Konerko.
