T
ThomasTomasz
Guest
The hiring of Theo Epstein as club president marked a new era for the Chicago Cubs, but there was no chance that the change would manifest itself in the standings this year, and there is little chance that it will change anything next year.
The Cubs' problems are simply defined. They are probably about five or six young pitchers short of having a legitimate shot of contending. They are four or five players short among their position players, and those they do have -- Starlin Castro and Triple-A first baseman Anthony Rizzo -- need more development time.
Castro's career-high batting average of .316 masks a raw approach at the plate that is pervasive in this organization right now. We're a quarter of the way through the season and Castro has just four walks and a .326 on-base percentage, and he already has eight errors. To repeat: Castro has twice as many errors as walks. And he's supposed to be the Cubs' best player.
So this sets up perhaps the most compelling crossroads of the summer: How far should Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer take their restructuring of the roster, particularly in the case of Castro, Matt Garza and Bryan LaHair, who has been a bright spot in the organization this summer? (It would seem to be a fait accompli that the Cubs will deal Ryan Dempster, the 35-year-old right-hander who is headed to free agency in the fall.)
About Garza: He is 28 years old and for his career has a 3.83 ERA. He has demonstrated the ability to shut down really good teams and he has, at times, been derailed into inconsistency by his high emotions. He is among the best pitchers the Cubs have now, and he will be eligible for free agency after 2013.
His trade value will be at its highest in the next two months and would dip significantly if the Cubs waited until the winter to trade him. Signing him to a long-term deal would require a four- or five-year commitment, and while Garza isn't close to being in the Matt Cain market bracket, he won't be cheap; Garza might command a deal in the $50-$65 million range.
For the readers: Should the Cubs deal Garza or sign him?
LaHair, 29, has been a revelation, ranking among the league's best hitters this season with a .413 on-base percentage. He's played in a total of 104 games in the majors.
The Cubs could look to deal him, like a hot stock, in a summer in which there is very little offense available in the trade market. They probably wouldn't get anything close to a premium prospect for him, because other teams would have doubts about whether his emergence is for real -- just the case of a veteran getting pitched to aggressively while hitting in the middle of a bad lineup. The Cubs might be able to get a Grade-B prospect for him -- a relief prospect, perhaps.
For the readers: Should the Cubs keep LaHair and move him to left field when Rizzo is called up or sell him this summer?
Castro, 22, is viewed as the crown jewel of the Cubs' franchise, and at 21, he led the National League in hits with 207. He is seemingly capable of being a .300 hitter for the next 10-12 years.
His play is also raising questions about whether he can be a shortstop long term, because of his defensive inefficiency; he has 64 errors in his first 325 games in the majors. If he is moved to another position, his value will immediately be diminished. His on-base percentage was .347 in his first year, .341 last year, and it's down to .326 this year. Epstein always valued high on-base percentage in his years as general manager of the Boston Red Sox, more so than some other teams.
The Cubs could keep Castro as their centerpiece, with the belief that his flaws will be fixed. They could trade him -- and right now, before his salary begins to rocket upward, he could have significant value to a team that believes in his potential and values his athleticism. Think Hanley Ramirez, with depreciation for the fact Castro already has two-plus years of service time.
There are almost no deals the Cubs can make with their current 40-man roster that would bring them high-impact talent in return. Trading Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Marmol would bring them nothing; swapping Castro could get them two high-end prospects.
For the readers: If you are the Cubs, what should you do with Castro?
Garza was knocked out early Monday and the Cubs lost, again. That's seven straight losses and counting for Chicago.
