Note: This is a new, updated version of ESPN's Future Power Rankings of NBA teams. The previous edition ran on March 2, 2010; the second edition launched on Dec. 15, 2009; and the first edition kicked things off on Nov. 10, 2009.
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team in the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons.
HOW FUTURE POWER RATING IS DETERMINED
PLAYERS (0 to 400 points): Current players and their potential for the future, factoring in expected departures
MANAGEMENT (0 to 200 points): Quality and stability of front office, ownership, coaching
MONEY (0 to 200 points): Projected salary-cap situation; ability and willingness to exceed cap and pay luxury tax
MARKET (0 to 100 points): Appeal to future acquisitions based on team quality, franchise reputation, city's desirability as a destination, market size, taxes, business and entertainment opportunities, arena quality, fans
DRAFT (0 to 100 points): Future draft picks; draft positioning
CATEGORY RANKINGS: See how each team ranked in each category
Consider this a convenient way to see the direction your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons after this season.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).
As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that category accounts for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.
With all the big moves around the league this summer, it's time for a new edition of the Future Power Rankings. Two important notes: (1) Now that the NBA calendar has flipped, we are evaluating the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons; and (2) we are not considering the changes that might be made to the collective bargaining agreement because there is no way to know how those changes will reshape the league.
We're rolling out our rankings this week.
Here are our latest rankings, from 1-30:
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
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1. Miami Heat | Future Power Rating: 707
PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT
387 (1st) 174 (3rd) 46 (29th) 99 (1st) 1 (30th)
Despite a middling 2009-10 regular season, Miami ranked No. 4 in the previous edition of the Future Power Rankings. Now you know why.
For those of you who spent July spelunking in Borneo, the Heat pulled off one of the great coups in NBA history, inking LeBron James and Chris Bosh to join forces with Dwyane Wade, then surrounding them with a decent crop of role players.
Miami's management also jumps nine spots to the No. 3 position, as Pat Riley showed he can still make the decisive big-picture moves to steer a franchise the right way. (On smaller moves, the track record remains mixed -- witness Joel Anthony's five-year, $18 million deal.)
Money now looms as an issue for the Heat, who were No. 2 in the category last time, and they will have to rely on the midlevel exception to build out a somewhat limited roster in future seasons. Additionally, ownership has been reluctant to pay the luxury tax in the past, although that might change with the arrival of the Miami Thrice cash cow.
Despite those concerns, the Heat are an easy choice for the No. 1 spot. They have the best market -- a tax-free, warm-weather city with a vibrant nightlife and three superstars. They have the best players, with James, Wade and Bosh. And for the three seasons that run from 2011 to 2014, they have the best outlook.
(Previous rank: 4)
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2. Los Angeles Lakers | Future Power Rating: 697
PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT
346 (2nd) 176 (2nd) 70 (25th) 96 (2nd) 9 (28th)
The Lakers were No. 2 the last time we did this and remain there this time around. But in two important respects, L.A.'s outlook has changed.
First, the Lakers' market is no longer rated as the most desirable -- Miami surpassed the Lakers with its additions this summer, although Los Angeles remains a close second because of its great weather, rabid fan base and superior cachet.
The Lakers also moved up three spots to No. 2 in our management ranking. GM Mitch Kupchak has made a series of shrewd moves -- the de facto swap of Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest last offseason and the trade for Shannon Brown the year before -- that have kept L.A. a step ahead of the league. And he has done it all from the shadows while managing several outsize egos. Owner Jerry Buss, meanwhile, has figured out how to spend for quality while paring excess costs, preventing the salary bloat that has hamstrung other large-market teams through the years (cough, New York, cough).
On the court, the Lakers also have to worry about the knees of Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum and about whether Phil Jackson will be game for yet another go-round after the upcoming season. Nonetheless, a Kobe-Pau Gasol-Bynum combo looks more formidable than any other roster in the West.
(Previous rank: 2)
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3. Oklahoma City Thunder | Future Power Rating: 679
PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT
316 (3rd) 159 (5th) 135 (6th) 35 (24th) 34 (20th)
The Thunder have fallen from their perch atop the Future Power Rankings to third even though they've done little wrong. But they didn't have the offseason Miami did, obviously, and the Lakers slid past them, too, as a result of their continued success putting the right pieces around their core.
Can the Thunder do the same? Kevin Durant is an MVP candidate, and having him under contract for five more seasons should make Oklahoma City a much more desirable destination for other players -- at least for those not angling for good weather or a bustling nightlife.
Although the Thunder have plenty of good young players around Durant, it remains to be seen whether any will join him on the journey to stardom. To match up against the likes of L.A. or Miami, they'll need somebody like Russell Westbrook, James Harden or Serge Ibaka to become an elite-level player.
(Previous rank: 1)
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4. Chicago Bulls | Future Power Rating: 606
PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT
288 (5th) 102 (14th) 101 (14th) 68 (6th) 47 (16th)
The Bulls didn't get LeBron, Wade or Bosh, but they still made a major move up our rankings.
Some of their rise comes from our belief that young players Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah will continue to blossom in Chicago. But a lot of it has to do with three pieces they added this summer: Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer.
Boozer in particular looks to be a terrific fit for Chicago. The Bulls have desperately needed a low-post scorer since trading away Elton Brand nine years ago, and Boozer should command a double-team in the paint. Korver is also a godsend, as he joins a team with almost no other outside shooting.
Chicago gets a slight bump in its management rating, too, for hiring coach Tom Thibodeau. Although it's too early to project what sort of success he'll have as a head coach, Thibodeau, a former Boston assistant, was a critical part of the Celtics' success the past few years and is widely regarded as the best defensive coach in the league. Vinny Del Negro was a better coach than he got credit for, but Thibodeau brings a lot to the table that Del Negro just didn't have.
On the downside, the Bulls had to give up Tyrus Thomas, Kirk Hinrich and the No. 17 pick in the draft to get all of that cap space this summer. Thomas, a recent lottery pick, showed enormous potential but was inconsistent and never won the confidence of his coaches. Hinrich, on the other hand, was a veteran anchor who will be missed.
(Previous rank: 9)
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5. Houston Rockets | Future Power Rating: 605
PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT
214 (10th) 157 (6th) 96 (16th) 60 (11th) 78 (6th)
Houston has a lot of assets thanks to a trade-deadline fleecing of the Knicks that could give the team high draft picks in 2011 and 2012. But the Rockets rank in the top five in our rankings because the cast already on hand looks strong.
Yao Ming's health is obviously a concern, but Aaron Brooks, Kevin Martin, Kyle Lowry, Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier, Chase Budinger, Luis Scola, Jordan Hill and Patrick Patterson give Houston a nice foundation. If Yao comes back reasonably healthy (the odds of which we disagreed about), the Rockets could be very good indeed.
Additionally, the Rockets rate fairly well in the money category despite being well into the luxury tax. Most of the contracts on the books are short, and ownership has shown a willingness to spend money, both with contracts and when paying for draft picks. Houston has shown strong management, as well, mixing GM Daryl Morey's analytics focus with solid scouting, as evidenced by a string of successful drafts.
(Previous rank: 10)