FG: Stat Nerd NL All Star Roster

[ThomasTomasz]

We did the AL earlier this afternoon, so now we’re tackling the 34 man rosters for the National League. Quick primer in case you didn’t read the AL post — I value first half performance (even flukes) since I see the game as a reward for the players, every team gets a representative, and injured guys are not considered. On to the picks, with starters listed first.

Catcher: Yadier Molina, Carlos Ruiz, A.J. Ellis, Buster Posey

Don’t need four catchers, but can’t leave any of these guys at home. The first two would be legitimate MVP candidates if not for some first baseman in Cincinnati, and Ellis and Posey have been huge factors in their team’s success as well. They all deserve to go.

Apologies To: Miguel Montero.

First Base: Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt

Hey National League First Baseman Not Named Joey Votto – you suck. Okay, Goldschmidt is having a solid enough year, but the lack of depth behind Votto at the position in the NL is pretty staggering. There are seven qualified NL first baseman with less than +0.6 WAR. Essentially half the team’s in the NL are getting nothing from their first baseman. Let’s move on.

Apologies To: Fans of NL teams who have to watch their league’s first baseman hit.

Second Base: Brandon Phillips, Dan Uggla, Aaron Hill

A pretty balanced group here, with Phillips getting the starting nod mostly because his track record suggests he’s probably the best of the three. While this is a performance reward, when the performance is this close, tie goes to the best guy.

Apologies To: Jose Altuve, who is in if he’s healthy.

Shortstop: Jed Lowrie, Starlin Castro, Jose Reyes

Lowrie’s an easy pick, but it gets a bit tougher to pick the reserves after that. Castro gives us a needed Cubs representative and is pretty much in line with the rest of the non-Lowrie guys, so he gets a spot. Reyes isn’t far back of the group in 2012 performance while being a worthy player based on talent, but I wouldn’t argue much if you wanted to swap him out for one of the others.

Apologies To: Ian Desmond, Rafael Furcal, Jimmy Rollins

Third Base: David Wright, Chase Headley, David Freese

Mostly cut-and-dried here, with Wright as the obvious starter, Headley as the obvious Padres representative, and Freese getting the last spot due to nothing more than personal preference. I’d have no problem with anyone who wanted to change out Freese for someone else out of the pile of similar players.

Apologies To: Aramis Ramirez, Hanley Ramirez

Outfield: Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Gonzalez, Melky Cabrera, Giancarlo Stanton, Jason Heyward, Michael Bourn, Bryce Harper

There are about 15 deserving candidates here, so the apologies list could span a couple of pages, but I took nine so that one of them could serve as the DH – probably Beltran. The first eight guys are all clearly deserving on performance, while Harper gets in as something of a good-for-the-game selection. He’s played well enough that it’s not a charity selection, and having him and Trout make their first all-star games together will simply make the event more fun. This is the one case where I’m going with fan spectacle over pure player performance, and thankfully, Harper has played well enough that he’s not a ridiculous pick on his own merits.

Apologies To: Matt Holliday, Dexter Fowler, Martin Prado, Andre Ethier, Jay Bruce

Starting Pitcher: Matt Cain, R.A. Dickey, Stephen Strasburg, Clayton Kershaw, Gio Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, James McDonald

The NL has so many good starting pitchers that I’ve decided that I just can’t exclude as many as I did in the AL, so the NL’s bullpen is going to be almost entirely made up of starters. Really, which of these eight guys don’t deserve to go? Even among the guys who I’m already apologizing to, there are legitimately strong cases for a spot on the roster. The NL might want to consider just bring 33 pitchers and Joey Votto just to be fair to the NL starting pitching field.

Apologies To: Wade Miley, Ryan Vogelsong, Lance Lynn, Cole Hamels, Madison Bumgarner

Relief Pitcher: Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel

Probably the two best relievers in baseball right now, so my regrets to all the good setup guys in the NL — sorry, you were aced out by ridiculous starting pitching performances this year.

Apologies To: Tyler Clippard, Matt Belisle, Many Many Others

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/stat-nerd-nl-all-star-roster/

Discuss:harper:

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Im not a big All Star game "purist", so I dont get too wrapped up in 'this guy has four more rbi than this guy, and this guy has a higher WAR by 0.4 than that guy', I just want a reasonably legit team on both sides, and interesting players.

For example, regardless of how their numbers look at the break, baseball would be remiss to not have Harper, Trout, and Chapman at the game. They deserve it anyway, but for gods sake, dont let the managers leave them off.

Also, AJ Burnett. He's got good numbers anyway, but take away the Cardinals game where he took one for the team and allowed 12 er, and he has a 1.20 era or something. This after a broken face in the spring and the Pirates hanging around the race again. Good for him, put him on the team.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Im not a big All Star game "purist", so I dont get too wrapped up in 'this guy has four more rbi than this guy, and this guy has a higher WAR by 0.4 than that guy', I just want a reasonably legit team on both sides, and interesting players.

For example, regardless of how their numbers look at the break, baseball would be remiss to not have Harper, Trout, and Chapman at the game. They deserve it anyway, but for gods sake, dont let the managers leave them off.

Also, AJ Burnett. He's got good numbers anyway, but take away the Cardinals game where he took one for the team and allowed 12 er, and he has a 1.20 era or something. This after a broken face in the spring and the Pirates hanging around the race again. Good for him, put him on the team.

I just wish we could get rid of the "one person from each team" rule, as well as eliminate the ability to have half of the AL team consist of Red Sox and Yankees, including the starters being predominantly from those two teams. I think the NFL has the best thing going where the fans, coaches and players split the vote for the starters.

Just put the best players in the game, regardless of teams.

 

[Goober]

I disagree on Harper, he'll have his chances in the future. He hasn't been that good this year, I'd prefer to have a better player, considering the implications of the game.

 

[NAHSTE]

Was gonna say the same about Harper, he's been pretty average since the initial burst. Putting him on would be a token gesture.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I disagree on Harper, he'll have his chances in the future. He hasn't been that good this year, I'd prefer to have a better player, considering the implications of the game.

Was gonna say the same about Harper, he's been pretty average since the initial burst. Putting him on would be a token gesture.

LOL @ "considering the implications of the game". I'm not even touching that one.

To me, this "game" is essentially a marketing tool, a celebration of the sport. You have Trout & Harper (and to a lesser extent, because he's a pitcher and had the bad week so he doesn't look inhuman anymore, Chapman), both 19, 20 years old, the future superstars of the game. If I were Bud, I would want them front and center, getting two AB's each, during the meat of the game when the most eyeballs are watching. Then hope something special happens. Let the kids watch these guys play. All Star games are like NCAA Selection Sunday, a week later, nobody cares or remembers that Dexter Fowler or Matt Holliday or Iowa St got snubbed.

These players are exciting, and the rosters have like 100 players now anyway. Shoehorn them in, showcase these dudes.

 

[Goober]

LOL @ "considering the implications of the game". I'm not even touching that one.

To me, this "game" is essentially a marketing tool, a celebration of the sport. You have Trout & Harper (and to a lesser extent, because he's a pitcher and had the bad week so he doesn't look inhuman anymore, Chapman), both 19, 20 years old, the future superstars of the game. If I were Bud, I would want them front and center, getting two AB's each, during the meat of the game when the most eyeballs are watching. Then hope something special happens. Let the kids watch these guys play. All Star games are like NCAA Selection Sunday, a week later, nobody cares or remembers that Dexter Fowler or Matt Holliday or Iowa St got snubbed.

These players are exciting, and the rosters have like 100 players now anyway. Shoehorn them in, showcase these dudes.

My favorite team plays in the NL. I almost always cheer for the NL team in the World Series. Home field advantage is a pretty big implication in by opinion. With that in mind, I want the NL to put its best effort forward to win. Bryce Harper isn't that. He isn't close to being one of the best NL outfielders talent wise or statistically this year. Keep him at home.

I don't care that Harper might be a future star. If so, he'll have plenty of all star game appearances in the future. For now lets let the players who are more deserving and give the NL a better chance to win play in the game.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

When they start playing it like a real game, i'll start caring about who wins. Until then, regardless of what stipulations they place on it, it's not a real baseball game.

 

[Villain]

Please remove all Dodgers from All-Star consideration, as they currently suck. Even AJ Ellis.

 

[Woy]

Please remove all Dodgers from All-Star consideration, as they currently suck. Even AJ Ellis.

You sound like me a week ago.

 

[Villain]

You sound like me a week ago.

:hugitout: