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ThomasTomasz
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Granted, it is Buster Olney, but still an interesting read. And no Molina :dd:
This is about the time of year when Gold Glove ballots are dispensed to coaches and managers, and based on my own experience in collecting the votes in past years, I’d say there are two different types of voting styles.
1. Some voters are devoted to turning in the best ballot possible, and will give lots of time and lots of thought to the process before picking their winners.
2. Some voters just want to get it over with and will pick out the first decent name that pops into their heads.
So, in other words, the Gold Glove voters are like the rest of the electorate in this fine democratic society.
Every week, I get an email from Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information noting the results of a conference call specifically held to talk about defensive metrics. He’s all over this kind of stuff, so I asked him to give me a pure statistical evaluation of who he thinks should be the Gold Glovers at each position, in each league.
His reply:
American League
P R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays
C Salvador Perez, Royals
1B Mike Napoli, Boston
2B Dustin Pedroia, Boston
3B Manny Machado, Baltimore
SS Pedro Florimon, Minnesota
LF Alex Gordon, Royals
CF Lorenzo Cain, Royals
RF Shane Victorino, Boston
National League
P Zack Greinke, Dodgers
C Russell Martin, Pirates
1B Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
2B Darwin Barney, Cubs
3B Nolan Arenado, Rockies
SS Andrelton Simmons, Braves
LF Starling Marte, Pirates
CF Carlos Gomez, Brewers
RF Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks
Here is what Mark has to say:
“By the advanced metrics, a bunch of these guys are runaway winners: Simmons, Machado, Arenado and Parra all rate as extraordinary defenders this season, per both Defensive Runs Saved and UZR, and there isn’t anyone close to them at their respective positions. Simmons and Machado should break the records for Defensive Runs Saved at their respective positions.
Greg M. Cooper/USA TODAY Sports
Shane Victorino has been the perfect right fielder to deal with Fenway's contours.
“Victorino rates very well in right (21 Defensive Runs Saved), much like he did when he played right field in Philadelphia for a year. There’s a big difference when you look at balls hit into the right-center gap with him and Jacoby Ellsbury getting to a lot of the ones that weren’t gotten to by others last season.
“Mike Napoli rates as the best first baseman by both Defensive Runs Saved and UZR in the AL, which admittedly is very weird, and there is a feeling that first base defense is hard to judge by advanced metrics. But think about it: There’s no [Mark] Teixeira, [Albert] Pujols or Adrian Gonzalez this season, so someone else has to be considered good. This year, that just happens to be Napoli. A more logical choice is probably Mark Trumbo or James Loney.
“The pitchers could admittedly be anybody. Dickey is the AL leader in Runs Saved, but barely ahead of Mark Buehrle, who would be a good choice too. Greinke was one name out of about 10 that I picked from.
“The Cubs have the top guys on right side of infield. Adrian Gonzalez and Paul Goldschmidt are almost even with Rizzo in Defensive Runs Saved, so that one might be a toss-up. Barney’s numbers aren’t as good as last season, which were basically off-the-charts, but they’re still pretty good (he covers a LOT of ground).
“NL center field is a good one between Gomez and Juan Lagares. Gomez has better numbers, but Lagares has been almost as good in fewer games. In fact, if you took HR robberies out of the mix, they’re basically even, because Lagares’ arm rates among the very best in MLB. We did a study earlier this year on the SweetSpot blog on Gomez’s ability to chase down balls hit directly over his head. ... He’s been pretty amazing at that all season.
“NL left field is a toss-up between Marte and Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez has won the Gold Glove in the past when he’s had bad defensive numbers, so I’d expect he’ll win this year.
“AL center field is between Cain (16 Defensive Runs Saved) and Jacoby Ellsbury. Cain had an amazing July and because of that he leads AL center fielders in Defensive Runs Saved. He won our Defensive Player of the Month that month and it was well deserved; he was catching EVERYTHING.
“The most interesting one, I think is NL catcher: Wellington Castillo has the best stats by Defensive Runs Saved, but I think he's not an easy one to accept, because he has made his share of mistakes (he gets a huge statistical spike for his ability to keep balls in the dirt in front of him). Russell Martin has great SB/CS numbers, and the difference between when he catches and when he doesn't is half a run. He’s basically having a career year defensively. [Yadier] Molina is his usual self, but Martin's numbers make him a viable challenger, though I don't think he WILL win."
Again: I asked Mark for statistical evaluations based on the defensive metrics.
Based on conversations I’ve had with players and front-office evaluators, I like his lists generally, and disagree with only a handful of picks.
My objections:
National League catcher: I’ve heard too much from folks with other teams about the impact of Yadier Molina -- with his throwing, his pitch calling, his ability to direct the St. Louis defense -- to believe that anybody else plays the position better than him at this stage in his career.
American League first base: As Mark noted, it seems weird that Napoli is rating so well, because if you watch him move, he looks like a catcher playing first base -- a little clunky, a little stiff.
But he's right in noting that there aren’t a lot of strong defenders at first in the AL right now -- none of the smooth-looking, J.T. Snow or Keith Hernandez types who can pick and throw. Mark Teixeira is a really good first baseman, but he has missed almost the entire season.
Eric Hosmer ranks near the bottom of the UZR ratings, which is interesting, but in terms of how he moves and throws and catches, he strikes me as being the guy who looks the most natural at the position, along with Loney; if Hosmer fails to win a Gold Glove during his career, I’d be shocked. Justin Morneau is excellent at digging out throws at first base.
American League shortstops: It’s my instinct to say that Alcides Escobar is the best.
Elsewhere, among NL center fielders, my initial answer would be Andrew McCutchen -- but Gomez’s UZR numbers are staggering; if you believe in those, it’s not close.
The defensive metrics for Barney are extraordinary, and yet, I think if you ask a lot of coaches about the best second baseman in the NL, they’d still say Brandon Phillips.
I like Mark’s pick of Greinke at pitcher, because when you watch him play defense, he’s the closest thing to Greg Maddux now; he looks like a shortstop in how he fields his position, which makes sense, because he was a shortstop as an amateur.
