Is momentum overrated?

[Archer]

Since 2004, teams entering the playoffs with a winning streak of at least three games are 15-16 in the playoffs.

The 2005 Steelers are the only team with a winning streak of at least three games that has won the Super Bowl in that stretch

Only one other team made the Super Bowl (2007 Patriots).

Only three teams have won two playoff games (2006 Pats, 2007 Chargers, 2007 Patriots).

The last 10 Super Bowl Champions win streaks going into the playoffs:

2008 Steelers: 1 Game

2007 Giants: 0 Games

2006 Colts: 1 Game

2005 Steelers: 4 Games

2004 Pats: 2 Games

2003 Pats: 12 Games

2002 Bucs: 1 Game

2001 Pats: 6 Games

2000 Ravens: 7 Games

1999 Rams: 0 Games

The hottest team (most consecutive wins) going into the playoffs each of the past 10 years and their final record in the playoffs:

2008: Colts (0-1)

2007: Patriots (2-1, lost SB)

2006: San Diego (0-1)

2005: Washington (1-1)

2004: Pittsburgh (1-1)

2003: Patriots (3-0, won SB)

2002: Titans (1-1)

2001: Patriots and Rams (Met in SB, 6-1 combined)

2000: Ravens (4-0 won SB)

1999: Titans 3-1(lost SB)

Sometimes the hot team wins. Usually they don't. Teams with a 1 game or zero game winning streak are as likely to win a Super Bowl in the past decade as teams with a longer winning streak.

Found it from another site .

People seem to talk about how the hottest team always wins but looking at this (pressuming he is correct with everything) this is quite often not the case

 

[Point Blank]

No.

 

[Derrville]

Im a big believer in momentum.

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

In a game of emotion I believe momentum can be a huge boost for a team. Not only have the Colts not lost a game this year.. they havent lost a regular season game in damn near 2 seasons.. when you just keep winning you get a feel of being unstoppable. Does this mean the Colts momentum all of a sudden comes to a halt? Probably not, but it certainly doesnt do anything to help it. I still believe its important to be hot come playoff time.. and the Colts are still hot, it just really seemed deflating for the whole team to roll over and die like that on Sunday.

 

[seaplus]

yes, mass x velocity = bullshit

 

[Archer]

In a game of emotion I believe momentum can be a huge boost for a team. Not only have the Colts not lost a game this year.. they havent lost a regular season game in damn near 2 seasons.. when you just keep winning you get a feel of being unstoppable. Does this mean the Colts momentum all of a sudden comes to a halt? Probably not, but it certainly doesnt do anything to help it. I still believe its important to be hot come playoff time.. and the Colts are still hot, it just really seemed deflating for the whole team to roll over and die like that on Sunday.

True but this thread wasn't just about the Colts

Is momentum real or is it just the team who's playing the best football at that time wins? I mean, looking at this the hottest team going in hardly wins the SB

 

[KINGOFOOTBALL]

Momentum doesnt always = winning streak.

The Giants taking the undefeated Pats to the brink was a huge confidence booster and momentum builder.

Winning games by 2-3 points in Dec when you've been winning by 20 in Oct - Nov is still a loss in momentum.

Lastly that last game of the season results in many teams resting there players. So alot of W's L's are swayed by teams resting knowing there spots been set.

A better judge would be something like win % in Dec heading into playoffs.

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

Momentum doesnt always = winning streak.

The Giants taking the undefeated Pats to the brink was a huge confidence booster and momentum builder.

Yeah I was just about to post this. Altho the Giants lost the last 2 games of the year, they were still riding high and full of confidence after how strong they finished a seemingly dead season. Theres no question IMO that momentum helped carry those guys right through to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

 

[jaxjaggywires]

The only momentum that matters is in game...I don't believe it carries from game to game for the most part.

 

[KINGOFOOTBALL]

so then what is you definition of momentum?

I watched that giants team... i can tell you from what i saw on my tv that about week 12 on...their oline went from being good...to the best in the nfl

their run blocking that last 3rd of the season and into the playoffs was unreal

they got better at football

thats why they did what they did

it wasn't as if their oline stunk all year...then b/c they played great against the pats...that gave them the momentum to play better during the playoffs

Oh dear.

"getting better at football" is a bland statement. Its a long season guys and teams get on hot streaks and cold streaks. Few things build confidence and get a large number of people putting out there best effort like taking an undefeated powerhouse to the brink when noone thought you had a chance. Good coaches build off that and thats what Coughlin and co. did.


Matchups and health play a part in every game. Nothing is unique about that come playoff time. After 2 months of camp and pre-season , 4 months of wear and tear , every team you face having a season full of footage on you. Its not about matchups so much as it is whos mentally strong and which teams are the best prepared at that point. Its not a coincidence that certain teams flounder while others prosper during the crucial month in the season year in and year out.

 

[JeremyHight]

Winning streaks heading into the playoffs is kind of tough to judge considering teams who wrap up the #1 or #2 seeds consistently rest their starters in the final 1-3 weeks so that they don't get injuries. They are willing to take losses heading into the playoffs in order to insure they don't get any injuries.

 

[FedEx227]

The only momentum that matters is in game...I don't believe it carries from game to game for the most part.

That's my stance on it. I have no doubt that in any given game a team can just be rolling, firing on all cylinders, etc. I just don't think it carries game to game.

 

[KINGOFOOTBALL]

Maybe Im being short sighted or not recalling correctly...

But the last teams Ive seen be able to turn it on and turn it off at will were the Boys and Niners of the early 90s.
They could bench half there guys , look sloppy , barely win last 2 games ,essentially having guys off for 2-3 weeks....then come out and obliterate the no.3 and 4 seeds in there first playoff games.
Of course each having 9-12 probowlers every year probably helped matters.

The more parity comes into play...the more important momentum and playing hot at the right moment becomes.

 

[FirstTimer]

In a game of emotion I believe momentum can be a huge boost for a team. Not only have the Colts not lost a game this year.. they havent lost a regular season game in damn near 2 seasons.. when you just keep winning you get a feel of being unstoppable. Does this mean the Colts momentum all of a sudden comes to a halt? Probably not, but it certainly doesnt do anything to help it. I still believe its important to be hot come playoff time.. and the Colts are still hot, it just really seemed deflating for the whole team to roll over and die like that on Sunday.

All those regular season wins didn't seem to help them last year in the post season.

Momentum IMO is generally BS when it comes to the playoffs. Especially when it comes to win streaks.

Hell, when the Bears made the Super Bowl in 2006 their last game of the season Rex threw 3 or 4picks put up a <10 rating and the Bears got pasted. Then two weeks later he came out and played one of his better games of the year and helped get the Bears to the Super Bowl by playing some of his more solid football of the year.

 

[FedEx227]

Vin Scully put it best (granted it was about baseball) "Momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher" I feel much is the same about football. I don't think momentum really carries from game to game, there can be bouts of confidence, but a pick on the first play from scrimmage can erase that in a second. It's all about how you're playing on that given day against that given team... not what happened two weeks ago or last week.

 

[Bear Pand]

It basically just comes down to how you want to define momentum. The whole problem with this argument is you really can't measure it, and we can't even agree on what it is. That being said I think it plays a role in the games, however you want to define it, so teams should do what they can to keep it going in their favor.