Johan Santana is an eventual Hall of Famer, right?

[NAHSTE]

Full disclosure, I went into this exercise looking for a pitching equivalent to Chase Utley, because I enjoyed that particular debate (like I enjoy most hall of fame debates). I looked at some active pitching leaders in a few random categories, and Johan stood out due to his age (just played his age 33 season, same as Utley) and the durability questions each faces headed into the latter stage of their career.

What I found though is that Johan should pretty much be a no-brainer. Two-time Cy winner, three-time ERA champ, three-time strikeout champ, is the current ERA+ leader among active starters*, and the black ink checks out.

I think he's more of a certainty than Chase Utley at this point, and thus a poor pitcher equivalent for the purposes of this exercise. But if you disagree with Johan Santana being a lock for the HOF, feel free to dissent here.









*- With another average year he could likely be overtaken by Roy Halladay as the two are very close (134, 132) but it's not like that would hurt his case given Roy is also a no-brainer HOFer

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

yes.

 

[FedEx227]

The issue with him will be longevity. He had an awesome peak, really, really, REALLY awesome. If people can take that into account and not worry that once that peak was over he was essentially worthless and injured (unless of course he puts together 2-3 more decent years) then he's a shoe-in.

He has better peaks than the likes of Mussina and Glavine but they destroy him on longevity. Me personally, yeah, I'd put him in.

 

[jms493]

yes....next

 

[SuperKevin]

Wow. Crazy to realize how dominant he was considering how average he's been over the past few years

 

[ThomasTomasz]

I remember him being that dominant, as I am always a sucker for Santana in fantasy baseball now, hoping he'll step up and even be 70% of his old self. If he can put together at least two full seasons of solid pitching, I could see it happening for sure.

 

[PG24]

Agreed with TT's post. He's certainly close to being a Hall of Famer, but he's got to have at least two full seasons of decent pitching to finish his career off in order to make it for sure. Just not sure you can induct him because he at one point in his career was dominant and then wasn't even able to pitch full seasons down the stretch. Certainly should be a HOF'er in my mind, but we'll see.

 

[SuperKevin]

The no hitter in the nation's biggest media market certainly helps his cause

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I think we all agree that he was elite for five seasons ('04-'08). Like, upper level all time elite. Three ERA titles, three strikeout titles, two Cy Youngs, four times led the league in WHIP (thee of those years under 1.000), a true workhorse with 230 innings per year.

But this idea that he's been average since is just not true. 2009 & 2010 he was still one of the best pitchers in baseball. ERA of under 3.00 in 2010, ERA+ of 130 for the two seasons.

The last two years he's been hurt.

So he has five super elite all time great seasons, plus two other good seasons with Mets, plus the one season in 2003 where he burst onto the scene late in the year as a starter and ended up 12-3 with 3.07 ERA.

He could retire today and i'm fine with his resume, because during his five year peak he was the best in the game and the definition of dominant.

You know who else had a similar five year dominant peak, but not much else?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/koufasa01.shtml

 

[NAHSTE]

I think CC Sabathia has a more borderline case than Johan, his black ink numbers are not good. He'll get in easily with a few more years of 200+ IP due to the metric fuckton of bulk numbers he'll amass, and the shiny pieces of flair (playoff winz, AS appearances, likeable guy on the Yankees, etc.) will put him over, but I was surprised at how flimsy his case is at the moment. Has only led the league in three categories (wins twice with the Yankees and IP in his lone Cy Young season, his last full year with Cleveland).

 

[EmpireWF]

More to W2B's point, he's never had a real stretch in New York where he was bad. Especially in his first two years here, he legitimately had at least 10 wins knocked off because of the bullpen. Obviously, if they get him those W's, his basic numbers look much better here.


edit.....If he doesn't run into shoulder issues, he most likely has 6 consecutive seasons with 200+ strikeouts (Tom Seaver has the record with 9...Randy fucking Johnson would've had 12 consecutive years if not for his injury-riddled 1996 season ffs).

nevermind this point, let's all bow to Randy Johnson.

 

[Goober]

More to W2B's point, he's never had a real stretch in New York where he was bad. Especially in his first two years here, he legitimately had at least 10 wins knocked off because of the bullpen. Obviously, if they get him those W's, his basic numbers look much better here.


edit.....If he doesn't run into shoulder issues, he most likely has 6 consecutive seasons with 200+ strikeouts (Tom Seaver has the record with 9...Randy fucking Johnson would've had 12 consecutive years if not for his injury-riddled 1996 season ffs).

nevermind this point, let's all bow to Randy Johnson.

How does the Mets bullpen make Johan's numbers look much worse?

 

[SuperKevin]

He explained it in the post. Curse him for using a basic stat like wins though

 

[Goober]

I think CC Sabathia has a more borderline case than Johan, his black ink numbers are not good. He'll get in easily with a few more years of 200+ IP due to the metric fuckton of bulk numbers he'll amass, and the shiny pieces of flair (playoff winz, AS appearances, likeable guy on the Yankees, etc.) will put him over, but I was surprised at how flimsy his case is at the moment. Has only led the league in three categories (wins twice with the Yankees and IP in his lone Cy Young season, his last full year with Cleveland).

If I could only vote for one or the other (Santana or Sabathia) I would vote for C.C. But I don't put much weight into black/grey ink when thinking about the Hall of Fame. Plus CC is hurt by the fact that his best season (2008) was split between two leagues. Sabathia's time in Milwaukee was probably the greatest pitching performance of his generation.

 

[Goober]

He explained it in the post. Curse him for using a basic stat like wins though

So Johan Santana with 139 career wins is borderline HOFer, but Johan Santana with 149 career wins (all else equal!) is HOLY SHIT PUT THIS MAN IN THE HALL RIGHT NOW?

 

[NAHSTE]

If I could only vote for one or the other (Santana or Sabathia) I would vote for C.C. But I don't put much weight into black/grey ink when thinking about the Hall of Fame. Plus CC is hurt by the fact that his best season (2008) was split between two leagues. Sabathia's time in Milwaukee was probably the greatest pitching performance of his generation.

#SSS

 

[Goober]

#SSS

It was less then half a season, yes. But in a little over two months, he started 17 games, including 7 complete games (3 shutouts). That's an insane run. I can't name anyone in the current generation who has gone on a similar run.

 

[EmpireWF]

I think we all agree that he was elite for five seasons ('04-'08). Like, upper level all time elite. Three ERA titles, three strikeout titles, two Cy Youngs, four times led the league in WHIP (thee of those years under 1.000), a true workhorse with 230 innings per year.

But this idea that he's been average since is just not true. 2009 & 2010 he was still one of the best pitchers in baseball. ERA of under 3.00 in 2010, ERA+ of 130 for the two seasons.

The last two years he's been hurt.

So he has five super elite all time great seasons, plus two other good seasons with Mets, plus the one season in 2003 where he burst onto the scene late in the year as a starter and ended up 12-3 with 3.07 ERA.

More to W2B's point, he's never had a real stretch in New York where he was bad. Especially in his first two years here, he legitimately had at least 10 wins knocked off because of the bullpen. Obviously, if they get him those W's, his basic numbers look much better here.

So Johan Santana with 139 career wins is borderline HOFer, but Johan Santana with 149 career wins (all else equal!) is HOLY SHIT PUT THIS MAN IN THE HALL RIGHT NOW?

I wasn't talking about his career numbers or HOF worthy. W2B brought up the idea a lot of people talk about, that he's been subpar in recent years.

 

[Senser81]

Santana has had an odd career. Two guys who came to mind who I thought would be similar are Ron Guidry and Denny McLain, and neither of those guys are in the HOF. I looked up his baseball reference page, and see that John Tudor is also comparable (?).

To me, Santana doesn't have the body of work to be in the HOF.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Santana has had an odd career. Two guys who came to mind who I thought would be similar are Ron Guidry and Denny McLain, and neither of those guys are in the HOF. I looked up his baseball reference page, and see that John Tudor is also comparable (?).

To me, Santana doesn't have the body of work to be in the HOF.

Sometimes you have to be careful with the B-R similarity scores, because unless the score is close to the mid 900's, those may be the closest matches, but not necessarily players that were all that similar. Some guys just don't have any great comps.

Anyway, I think Guidry is a pretty good measuring stick, and a guy who I think is a bordeline HOF who didn't get nearly the support he should have. And I personally think Johan is better than Guidry.

I think Johan is much closer to Sandy Koufax than he is to a guy like John Tudor, or even Denny McLain, who really only had two great seasons book ended by junk.