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Indianapolis Colts
Record: 2-14
Andrew Luck*, QB, StanfordIt's never easy to say goodbye to a legend like Peyton Manning -- a Super Bowl winner and the face of the franchise since his first day in training camp -- but using the No. 1 overall pick on a once-in-a-generation prospect like Luck is an opportunity the Colts can't pass up. Luck's NFL-ready skill set and demeanor sets Indianapolis up for another decade-plus with one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
St. Louis Rams
Record: 2-14
Justin Blackmon*, WR, Oklahoma StateWith the Rams intent on trading down, this projection is made with the assumption they will pick somewhere between No. 4 and No. 8 overall. Blackmon is the top receiver on the board and would give QB Sam Bradford the kind if perimeter weapon he needs. St. Louis could also opt for help in the secondary with LSU CB Morris Claiborne, and there are even rumblings Alabama RB Trent Richardson could be in play as a complement to Bradford.
Minnesota Vikings
Record: 3-13
Matt Kalil*, OT, USCThe Vikings just missed out on being able to cash in with the second overall pick, but with Baylor QB Robert Griffin III likely to be the pick there Minnesota is in a position to finally begin shoring up its offensive line with an elite prospect. Kalil is one of the top left tackles I have ever evaluated coming out of college, with a skill set equal to Joe Thomas and a mean streak to go with it.
Cleveland Browns
Record: 4-12
Robert Griffin III*, QB, Baylor Again, this is a player/team match made under the assumption the Browns' considerable resources -- two first-round picks this year, likely a Day 2 pick this year or next -- will allow them to trade up and get Griffin. It will be interesting to see how things play out in free agency and how long Cleveland might bluff, but in the end the smart move is to go get Griffin and lock down the franchise quarterback the team has been looking for since it re-entered the league in 1999 and drafted Tim Couch first overall.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 4-12
Morris Claiborne*, CB, LSUThis could be a tough call for Tampa Bay, which would strongly consider taking Richardson in this scenario. However, Claiborne is also among the five elite talents in the 2012 class, and he plays a position of greater value with a longer shelf life. He's clearly the top cover corner on the board, and with Ronde Barber turning 37 before the draft and Aqib Talib carrying off-field baggage, Claiborne makes plenty of sense.
Washington RedskinsRecord: 5-11
Riley Reiff*, OT, IowaThe Redskins will be in the RG3 derby, but if they don't trade up I would expect coach Mike Shanahan to have a veteran free-agent acquisition to work with at quarterback. That leaves them with no other perfect fits in terms of needs -- no wideout or guard worth this pick -- but Reiff would bring some flexibility to the offensive line by giving the staff the chance to slide him or current OTs Jammal Brown or Trent Williams inside.
Jacksonville JaguarsRecord: 5-11
Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South CarolinaNorth Carolina DE Quinton Coples is more naturally talented, but he's inconsistent. Ingram has explosive quickness and power and he brings it on every down, and you know what you're getting with him. That fits the philosophy of the organization under general manager Gene Smith, who in the past has taken high-character, high-motor players like DT Tyson Alualu over more highly-rated prospects.
Miami DolphinsRecord: 6-10
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&MMiami is also going to be in the running for the second overall pick, and there is chatter about Manning or Matt Flynn landing with the Dolphins, but if quarterback is still a need on draft day Tannehill will get a long look here. He's not nearly as polished as the top two quarterbacks, but he has a lot of natural skills and all kinds if potential. And don't forget, Tannehill played under new Miami offensive coordinator Mike Sherman at Texas A&M.
Carolina PanthersRecord: 6-10
Quinton Coples, DE, North CarolinaThe Panthers have big needs at wide receiver and corner, but with no worthy options at those positions, Coples becomes an attractive option. Coach Ron Rivera is looking to shore up the defensive front, and you can never have enough good pass-rushers. And because Coples is a top-five talent who should slip just a bit because of an inconsistent motor, he is almost a value pick at this point.
Buffalo BillsRecord: 6-10
Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, AlabamaThis pick is a bit of a reach, but the Bills have a major need for an edge-rusher. Buffalo is switching to a 4-3 scheme but still wants to be flexible and multiple up front, and that's where Upshaw's value lies. He can put his hand in the dirt and get upfield after the quarterback, but he also has experience dropping into coverage and playing other roles. Shawne Merriman was a bust for the Bills last season, and they have to get someone who can put heat on the passer.
Kansas City ChiefsRecord: 7-9
Trent Richardson*, RB, AlabamaThis is a best-athlete-available pick. The Chiefs have bigger holes along the interior offensive line and at nose tackle, but even though running back is a low priority in this scenario they can't pass on the chance to get one of the elite players on the board at No. 11 overall. Should they look elsewhere, Memphis DT Dontari Poe would be an option with his ability to shore up the defensive front.
Seattle SeahawksRecord: 7-9
Luke Kuechly*, ILB, Boston CollegeLinebacker is among the Seahawks' top needs, and Kuechly would immediately improve Seattle's linebacker corps with his instincts, consistency, production and leadership.
Arizona CardinalsRecord: 8-8
Jonathan Martin*, OT, StanfordAnother pick that seems like a reach, but offensive tackles always seem to go higher than expected because of positional value. I like Martin rather than Ohio State's Mike Adams at this point because of Martin's more consistent effort, and more than Georgia's Cordy Glenn because of Martin's potential to play left tackle. And that's exactly what the Cardinals need right now with contract extension talks with current LT Levi Brown falling apart.
Dallas CowboysRecord: 8-8
Janoris Jenkins, CB, North AlabamaThe secondary is clearly a weakness for Dallas, which has to target the best available defensive back at this point. Cowboys CB Terence Newman is entering his 10th season and Mike Jenkins -- the only corner Dallas drafted in the first three rounds of the last five drafts -- has not panned out. Janoris Jenkins has some character baggage, but he had a strong Senior Bowl week and is the top cover man on the board at this point.
Philadelphia EaglesRecord: 8-8
Dontari Poe*, DT, MemphisKuechly would be the pick if he were available, but the Eagles like drafting linemen early and Poe is the kind if unique, dynamic talent that makes it worth passing on bigger needs. With backups Trevor Laws and Derek Landri set to become free agents, Poe and his impressive physical skills and versatility would make sense in a rotation with Mike Patterson and Cullen Jenkins.
New York JetsRecord: 8-8
Mark Barron, S, AlabamaBarron could fall a bit because of recent hernia surgery, but all indications are that the surgery won't be a short- or long-term concern. Safeties are becoming more important because of the emergence of tight ends in NFL passing games -- and in the AFC East in particular because of the New England Patriots' duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez -- and Barron is far and away the most complete safety in the draft with his strength in run support and playmaking ability in coverage. Throw in the fact that Jets S Jim Leonhard has finished each of the last two seasons on injured reserve, and Barron is an upgrade.
Cincinnati Bengals (from OAK)Record: 9-7
Dre Kirkpatrick*, CB, AlabamaBengals CB Leon Hall is a solid starter if he comes back healthy after a season-ending knee injury, but Nate Clements is aging and Adam Jones is not getting it done, so Kirkpatrick makes sense. Short arms and a lack of elite ball skills will keep him out of the top 10, but Kirkpatrick is instinctive and physical in both coverage and run support.
San Diego ChargersRecord: 8-8
Cordy Glenn, OT/G, GeorgiaThe Chargers have a clear need at offensive tackle, and while Glenn struggled early in 2011 after moving from guard to left tackle, he came on late in the season and showed at the Senior Bowl and NFL combine that he has the tools to become a good starting right tackle in the NFL. He has a massive frame (6-foot-5, 346 pounds), plenty of power and good quickness for his size.
Chicago BearsRecord: 8-8
Michael Floyd, WR, Notre DameChicago needs a big target who can make plays downfield and take advantage of the strong arm of QB Jay Cutler, and while Floyd isn't the most sudden athlete he shows on tape the ability to be an impact player in the vertical passing game. Running a 4.47-second 40-yard dash at the combine helped solidify him as a top-25 prospect.
Tennessee TitansRecord: 9-7
David DeCastro*, G, StanfordThe Titans have three defensive ends set to become free agents, so that position could be an option here. In this scenario, though, DeCastro offers a big upgrade on the interior of the offensive line. He was the most dominant interior lineman in the nation in 2011, crushed the combine, is ready to start from Day 1 and has a chance to quickly become one of the premier guards in the league.
Cincinnati BengalsRecord: 9-7
Fletcher Cox*, DT, Mississippi StateAfter addressing their cornerback need at No. 17, the Bengals could take advantage of this second first-round pick to bring in an impact defensive lineman who could eventually push for the starting job 3-technique job. At the very least, Cox offers a versatile presence who can make big plays and wear multiple hats along the defensive front.
Cleveland Browns (from ATL)Record: 4-12
Michael Brockers*, DT, LSUThis is another value pick -- one the Rams could very well be making -- with a top-15 talent available much lower than that on the board. If it's Cleveland making the pick, Brockers' power and ability to control the point of attack would offer an upgrade and he would pair with NT Phil Taylor to give defensive coordinator Dick Jauron a solid interior duo to build around.
Detroit LionsRecord: 10-6
Mike Adams, OT, Ohio StateAdams is a little scary at this point given his inconsistency on tape and the fact that he does not always show a killer instinct, but he has the size, agility and long arms you look for in a starting left tackle. If the Lions believe in offensive line coach George Yarno and the leadership in their locker room, this could be their chance to get the heir apparent to longtime left tackle Jeff Backus.
Pittsburgh SteelersRecord: 12-4
Dont'a Hightower*, ILB, AlabamaOffensive line and cornerback are bigger needs, but the there are no players at those positions worth this pick and the Steelers are not a team that reaches for need. Hightower carries a fringe first-round grade, but he eased durability concerns in 2011 and there are few 263-pounders who run like he does. Hightower is a perfect fit in Pittsburgh's 3-4 scheme with his ability to control the interior.
Denver BroncosRecord: 8-8
Jerel Worthy*, DT, Michigan StateIt's not often a team can stand pat at No. 25 overall and still get a good player at a position of need, but the Broncos are in position to do that given the depth of this year's defensive tackle class. You'd like to see Worthy play with more consistency, but he has the explosiveness and quickness to penetrate, disrupt and make plays in the backfield.
Houston TexansRecord: 10-6
Kendall Wright, WR, BaylorWright will be looking to improve on the 4.61-second 40-yard dash at the combine when he runs at his March 21 pro day, but his stock hasn't been hurt much because he plays much faster than that on tape. Wright could add another explosive element to the Houston offense and offer the coaching staff all kinds of possibilities lined up opposite Andre Johnson.
New England Patriots (from N.O.)Record: 12-4
Whitney Mercilus*, DE, IllinoisMercilus is not a great athlete, but he is a good fit at end in a four-man front, which is something the Patriots are using much more often these days. New England needs pass-rush help, and Mercilus has a nonstop motor and a knack for making big plays (FBS-best nine forced fumbles in 2011).
Green Bay PackersRecord: 15-1
Andre Branch, DE, ClemsonBranch is a good fit in Green Bay, with the athleticism to move to outside linebacker in the Packers' 3-4 scheme, as well as the motor and pass-rush ability to get after the quarterback and draw some attention away from Clay Matthews on the other side.
Baltimore RavensRecord: 12-4
Peter Konz*, C, WisconsinThe Ravens never lock themselves into one position and will consider plenty of options depending on how things play out, but in this scenario they know exactly what they're getting. Konz has good size (6-5, 314) for a center, is smart and consistent, and with Cs Matt Birk and Andre Gurode and G Ben Grubbs all set to become free agents, the interior offensive line has to be an area of focus early for Baltimore.
San Francisco 49ersRecord: 13-3
Stephen Hill*, WR, Georgia TechThis is a big high for a raw prospect like Hill, but with the Patriots and so many other teams looking for size and the ability to stretch the field it won't surprise me to see him off the board this early. Hill (6-4, 215) showed flashes of his big-play ability in 2011 (28 catches, 820 yards), and he had one of the best combine workouts I've ever seen from a wide receiver. The 49ers have a bigger need at cornerback, but with Josh Morgan and Ted Ginn headed for free agency they could be left with Michael Crabtree and a whole lot of nothing at receiver when draft day rolls around.
New England PatriotsRecord: 13-3
Devon Still, DT, Penn StateStill could show more consistency, but if the Patriots get their pass-rusher at No. 27 and there are no viable options available at wide receiver, he would offer an upgrade over DTs Kyle Love and Ron Brace in four-man fronts. Playing alongside Vince Wilfork would help Still early in his career, and if he learns to play with better pad level he could become an impact defensive tackle.
New York GiantsRecord: 9-7
Coby Fleener, TE, StanfordIf one of the top defensive tackles were available here the Giants might go that route, and I would also not be surprised to see them take a running back like Virginia Tech's David Wilson. However, tight end is a clear need area and Fleener should cement his status as the top player in the class with a good pro day workout on March 22. He gives good effort as a blocker and has the tools to improve in that area, and I think he'll surprise some people with his speed and elevate himself above Clemson's Dwayne Allen and Georgia's Orson Charles.
Kiper
Indianapolis ColtsRecord: 2-14
* Andrew Luck, QB, StanfordNo change here, even with the change to the future of Peyton Manning. Luck was going to land with the Colts; it was only a matter of whether he'd be serving an apprenticeship. I'm interested to see if he gets a deal done well before the draft so he can dive into the playbook. You know the scouting report. Arm strength, talent, size, smarts, leadership, intangibles -- it's all there. Luck is currently working hard out in Palo Alto to further refine his talents.
St. Louis RamsRecord: 2-14
* Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St.Go ahead and put a big asterisk here, because I think this pick will be taken (most likely) by the Browns, with the Redskins also right there. The Browns can do a little more in terms of draft compensation all things being equal, but if Dan Snyder really wants his man, I'd never assume he'd come in second in a bidding war. Blackmon we know could fit with the Rams, even if they draft at No. 4 or No. 6, just based on how the picks could line up.
Minnesota VikingsRecord: 3-13
* Matt Kalil, OT, USCThis is one I'm going to stick with. I've liked the pick since the first mock, and I don't see a reason to change. Minnesota needs an upgrade at left tackle, and Kalil is the rare one who could step into that position right away at the NFL level. There's a lot of talk about which quarterback will go where right now, but this pick is about keeping Christian Ponder upright for the Vikings. They won't know what they have unless they can block for him. And it's obvious this will help the running game, too.
Cleveland BrownsRecord: 4-12
* Robert Griffin III, QB, BaylorThe assumption is they'll need to move up to No. 2 to get RG3, but I can't reflect that until anything is official. I don't think the combine changed anything in terms of where Griffin was likely to land, but it certainly didn't hurt him. He showed off athleticism that would have been impressive for the top wide receivers and running backs. Given his experience, leadership qualities and overall skill set as an accurate passer with a potent arm, I don't see it as much of a leap for Griffin to be a Week 1 starter in 2012.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 5-11
* Trent Richardson, RB, AlabamaThis is one more I'm sticking with. Richardson could land here despite the presence of LaGarrette Blount, and depending on how his workouts go, I can see a team trading into this position to take him. Great running teams need more than one good back, and Richardson is superior to Blount. Further, if the Bucs are going with a best player available at this spot, Richardson fits the bill. I can also see the Bucs taking a close look at cornerbacks, which brings the next guy on the board into play, but I like Richardson here until I get a clear signal they're going another direction.
Washington RedskinsRecord: 5-11
* Morris Claiborne, CB, LSUGo ahead and pop the asterisk here, too. We know the Redskins are actively looking at moving up, and they could also be in the race for Manning. Obviously, what the Skins could do in free agency for their offense is something I'm considering. If they were to get Manning, this pick could turn into an O-lineman. As for Claiborne, amidst all that's up in the air, he still makes a lot of sense. He's the top corner available, and is actually a better pure cover corner than Patrick Peterson, the No. 5 overall pick from last year. The kid can play, and did nothing to hurt his stock in Indy.
Jacksonville JaguarsRecord: 5-11
Quinton Coples, DE, North CarolinaCoples wasn't quite as dominant as I thought he'd be during the 2011 season, but the draft process has reinforced what a lot of front office folks believed, which is that he's clearly the top 4-3 defensive end in the draft. The Jags need pass-catchers, but if Blackmon isn't available, Coples fits. Jacksonville sacked opposing quarterbacks fewer than two times a game in 2011, and Coples is a great fit for the scheme. He has great length at 6-foot-6, and the size to hold up in the run game, complementing his pass-rush skills. Jacksonville is another team that simply needs to upgrade its talent level, so the Jaguars shouldn't reach based on need.
Miami DolphinsRecord: 6-10
Riley Reiff, OT, IowaThe Dolphins will be adding a quarterback -- Manning is obviously in play -- and Reiff puts the finishing touches on an improved offensive line. Reiff was exceptional this past season, and given how complete he is right now, stepping in immediately on the right side shouldn't be a problem. I've said that outside linebacker would make sense here, but Miami knows offensive line play will be a big part of their success in 2012, regardless of who takes the snaps. They went O-line in Round 1 last year with good results, and doubling down wouldn't hurt them.
Carolina PanthersRecord: 6-10
* Dontari Poe, DT, MemphisThe Carolina defense couldn't stop the run last year and had to rotate a pair of rookies on the defensive interior. The offense could use a couple pieces, but they'll be able to score points. Carolina needs to find some stops. Poe was the story of the combine on the defensive side of the ball. He posted numbers for a big man we haven't seen since Haloti Ngata, and if his technique matches the physical traits, he can be a really good one. His size will get him pegged for a 3-4, but I like him better in a 4-3.
Buffalo BillsRecord: 6-10
Melvin Ingram, DE, South CarolinaIngram's stock is on the rise, and the Bills need a pass-rusher. He's billed as a defensive end based on the system at South Carolina, but Buffalo can use him in their personnel groupings and not limit what he does best. He's a pass-rusher, but isn't a guy that becomes a liability against the run. I think there is still growth in Ingram's game, as he learns to better disengage from blocks. With Steve Johnson back in the fold, the Bills should put their focus on defense early.
Kansas City ChiefsRecord: 7-9
* Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston CollegeKuechly came to Indy with concerns about his size. But he weighed in at over 240 pounds, easing some of those concerns, and then shined in workouts, proving the added bulk won't slow him down; a classic case where a guy answers the big questions and solidifies his stock. Romeo Crennel needs linebackers with great instincts who can be physical in the run game, make stops and also get into the backfield when asked. Kuechly is simply a machine, a prototype for what you want in an interior linebacker. I can see the Chiefs looking for a nose tackle, so if Poe is around, that pick makes sense as well.
Seattle SeahawksRecord: 7-9
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&MThere's no question that Tannehill's stock was helped when a couple of other QBs opted to stay in college, but his growth curve has been exceptional, and he's a guy you draft with a very high ceiling in mind. Good arm, the athleticism you'd expect from a former wide receiver and with very good instincts for the position, some team will take him in the upper half of Round 1. We know Seattle isn't set on a long-term solution at QB, and Tannehill makes sense as a guy that gets a full year of developmental time.
Arizona CardinalsRecord: 8-8
Michael Floyd, WR, Notre DameOffensive line would be the more obvious pick here, but I want to see what the Cardinals do in free agency first. Floyd would be a great complement to Larry Fitzgerald in that offense, and give the Cardinals an enviable pair of guys that can work underneath, go deep and also post up smaller defensive backs in the red zone. Outside of the offensive line, Floyd is as much as you could do to help a quarterback.
Dallas CowboysRecord: 8-8
Mark Barron, S, AlabamaWe all know the story. Dallas was a mess defending the pass in 2011, and it might look for help both in free agency and here. Barron's a perfect fit for the Cowboys. He's the best safety in the draft, and the Cowboys can't go wrong with either the top safety or the top cornerback here. He didn't work out in Indianapolis, coming off double hernia surgery, but it's not a lingering concern.
Philadelphia EaglesRecord: 8-8
* Michael Brockers, DT, LSUNo team was softer up the middle than Philly in 2011, and in Brockers the Eagles get a big, active player who can both take up blocks and penetrate. He weighed in at 322 pounds at the NFL combine, heavier than I've ever had him listed, but I don't see him as a prototype 3-4 nose tackle. My guess is he'll play a little lighter once he gets into camp, and the Eagles will benefit, particularly against the run. This is like a baseball team -- they need to build out the middle of the field on defense. If Kuechly is here, that makes sense as well.
New York JetsRecord: 8-8
Courtney Upshaw, OLB, AlabamaRex Ryan needs a guy that can get to the quarterback on his own, meaning without a blitz package, and Upshaw is that kind of player. He plays with a high motor, sheds blocks well with quickness and violent hands and makes plenty of sense in Ryan's system. He's also bigger than he was listed at Alabama. The Jets could also grab Barron if he's on the board, or get a defensive lineman if they see a fit.
Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland)Record: 8-8
* Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, AlabamaJohnathan Joseph left a void last year when he landed in Houston as a free agent, and Kirkpatrick will fill the void. This is a big, physical corner who doesn't give up much in coverage given his size (nearly 6-3), which makes him particularly good inside the red zone. He's also tough against the run. I have the Bengals as a team who could trade up for Richardson if he starts to fall on the board, but if they don't, Kirkpatrick offers immediate help.
San Diego ChargersRecord: 8-8
Whitney Mercilus, DE, IllinoisThe book on Mercilus is he's an athletic, long-armed pass-rush specialist who simply dominated as a senior. The track record over a few seasons isn't there, but he could be a steal if what we saw in 2011 is what Mercilus truly is. The Chargers need help on the offensive line, but I think free agency will help us get a clearer picture. Mercilus is a great value here, but we'll see how the needs shift.
Chicago BearsRecord: 8-8
Mike Adams, OT, Ohio St.It looks like the Bears will be really aggressive in targeting wide receivers in free agency, and the offensive line still has to be better. Mike Tice knows as well as anybody that Jay Cutler can be successful in the passing game first if he's not getting hit on every play. Adams wasn't a star in terms of testing, but he's really good in pass protection, and the Bears could use more of that trait along the line. He moves his feet and doesn't get beat inside, but he has the length and technique to protect the edge.
Tennessee TitansRecord: 9-7
* David DeCastro, OG, StanfordThe Titans also need pass-rush help, but if things break this way, DeCastro represents tremendous value, and that offensive line could use the help after a year where the running game totally fell apart. DeCastro is the kind of player you can draft who won't get big headlines, but will pay immediate dividends because they can plug him in Week 1. Obviously, if a pass-rusher they like falls to No. 20, they could go that direction.
Cincinnati BengalsRecord: 9-7
Cordy Glenn, OG, GeorgiaI have guard as one of the top needs for the Bengals, and if they don't get DeCastro at this spot, Glenn isn't much of a drop. Cincinnati will have added help in the run game next year, but it also needs to get better up front. Glenn is a guy who has also spent time at tackle, and could be moved there in a pinch, but he dominates on the inside and is surprisingly quick given his huge frame. Another good piece in an offense primed to get better.
Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta)Record: 4-12
Lavonte David, LB, NebraskaThis is a bit of a gut call for me. I'm not sure exactly how teams will use David, but the guy can flat-out play. The question on David was size, but he checked in at 233 pounds last week, and didn't appear to lose a step in the workout phase, which made me rethink my second-round grade. David played smaller at Nebraska, but you won't find a guy that simply flew all over the field the way David did anywhere in the draft. Cleveland needs help in several spots, but David will be productive.
Detroit LionsRecord: 10-6
* Stephon Gilmore, CB, South CarolinaDetroit could get into the mix for a cornerback during free agency -- Cortland Finnegan is a name that has come up often -- but I'd still be shocked if the Lions go two rounds without adding a corner. They have plenty of talent up front, and they need to turn their pass rush into more interceptions. Gilmore is a bigger corner, a guy that can handle big wide receivers, but he also doesn't lose much in terms of quickness. I can also see the Lions going O-line or linebacker here, but corner is a big need.
Pittsburgh SteelersRecord: 12-4
Dont'a Hightower, LB, AlabamaAs part of their purge to get in good standing with the salary cap, the Steelers had to cut veteran James Farrior. While they have some young talent at linebacker, given the way their system works, I think they'll want to find Dick LeBeau another player that can help early. Hightower was an exceptional young player for Bama before he lost a year with an ACL injury, but he recovered this year and might have plenty of growth left. The Steelers have new needs, and Hightower fills one.
Denver BroncosRecord: 8-8
* Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi St.Denver has the pass rush on the edge but must add more depth on the inside, because despite the flashes this defense had last year, overall the Broncos profile as a team that has some holes on that side of the field. Cox is an active guy, a penetrator who will be a great fit in the Denver system, and can help them get some inside push. Cornerback is also a concern, but we'll know more after free agency. If Tannehill is still on the board at this stage, it could make for a pretty interesting draft night.
Houston TexansRecord: 10-6
* Kendall Wright, WR, BaylorWhen the Texans lost Andre Johnson last year, it completely eliminated their ability to stretch the field. That's a problem, because this is a system that thrives on regular use of play-action packages, and it loses a lot of juice if there's nobody around to challenge defenses deep. Wright can do that. His performance in Indy wasn't his best, but his tape shines -- you see a guy that plays fast in pads and beats people deep. His hands are also fine.
New England Patriots (from Saints)Record: 13-3
Kendall Reyes, DT, ConnecticutI had Reyes to the Patriots with their other first-round pick in a previous mock, and he sticks, albeit a little higher, this time around. The Patriots know they have to get better along the defensive front, and that could come via free agency (Mario Williams?). Still, I'd be surprised if they don't target it in the draft, even though Bill Belichick never fails to make moves and surprise during the draft. Reyes provides an active run-stuffer up front, a guy that can eat up blocks and free up rushers.
Green Bay PackersRecord: 15-1
* Nick Perry, LB, USCThe Packers need help in the secondary, but a lot of that starts with the pass rush. It's not an exaggeration to say the Packers' pass rush fell off a cliff towards the end of last season. In Perry, you get a guy who played with his hand on the ground at USC, but should be able to stand up for the Packers and provide the complement they need. And hey, the last time the Packers looked for pass-rush help out of USC it worked out just fine.
Baltimore RavensRecord: 12-4
Peter Konz, C, WisconsinRay Lewis coming back makes me like this pick more, so I'm sticking with it. As I've said before, Matt Birk will need a replacement at center, and Konz is the best one in the draft. He's like a good quarterback out there, able to call the defensive looks, and will be a big help to Joe Flacco. The Ravens were a mess up front for portions of 2011 and will need to add help there.
San Francisco 49ersRecord: 13-3
* Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia TechHill set Indy ablaze, going sub-4.4 in the 40 while measuring 6-foot-4. San Francisco, meet the deep threat you've been looking for. It's no secret the 49ers need more out of their wide receivers, and Hill brings a new aspect to the table, with elite size and track speed to stretch defenses both for himself, and to open up things underneath. He'll need an adjustment period as he gets used to a more conventional offense, but some team is going to fall in love with the measurables.
New England PatriotsRecord: 13-3
Janoris Jenkins, CB, North AlabamaThere's no question Jenkins comes with baggage, but without it you're talking about a player in the conversation 20 spots higher on the board. If you like your locker room and feel like you can keep him on track, this is the kind of guy you take a risk on at a big need position. I still think corner is one for the Patriots, who could obviously look at pass-rush help here. But put a talent like Jenkins in a culture like New England's, and you could have a steal.
New York GiantsRecord: 9-7
Coby Fleener, TE, StanfordThe Super Bowl was great for the party, but the Giants took a hit on the personnel side, where they lost a pair of tight ends to injury. Fleener has overtaken Dwayne Allen of Clemson as the top tight end on my board, and the Giants need one. He has great hands, will run a lot better than people think and knows how to work in a pro-style system, lined up on the line of scrimmage. He's a great red zone target. The Giants also need offensive line help, or could target a linebacker here, but Fleener makes a lot of sense.
