T
ThomasTomasz
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This is the second edition of this re-ranking of top prospects just based on their potential impact in the coming year, a list that is based as much on expectations of playing time as it is on projection of their abilities. Unlike last year, we don't have that many rookies likely to win significant roles right out of spring training -- two position players, five starting pitchers and two relievers, by my rough count. But there are a number of impact prospects likely to get the call in June or July and produce real value in the majors, as we saw last year from Brett Lawrie, Desmond Jennings and Dustin Ackley. Here are the top 20 such players, with a few honorable mentions whose playing time in 2012 is less certain.
1. Matt Moore, LHP | Top 100 rank -- 3: If you saw him last year, you know he's ready. He'll miss bats, throw strikes and will only be held back by the way the Rays manage his workload to keep him healthy for the long haul. If he gets the innings, he should finish in the top 10 in the American League in strikeouts.
2. Devin Mesoraco, C | Top 100 rank -- 8: He has a job, which is something few others on this list can say, and the Reds believe in his bat enough to trade their next-best catching prospect, Yasmani Grandal, in the Mat Latos deal. Mesoraco has present 20-homer power and enough patience to be an above-average catcher in the National League right away, with the chance to be a lot more down the road.
3. Jesus Montero, DH/C | Top 100 rank -- 9: He can't catch, but once the Mariners realize that and put him at DH, watch out, as Montero has the kind of all-fields power that should play even in the humbling environment of Safeco, as well as enough plate discipline to post a strong OBP and get himself into good hitters' counts.
4. Jarrod Parker, RHP | Top 100 rank -- 31: I like Parker as a stealth Rookie of the Year candidate, pitching in a good ballpark in front of a solid defense with four pitches, including a two-seamer to get ground balls, a harder four-seamer and a potentially plus changeup to miss bats.
5. Jacob Turner, RHP | Top 100 rank -- 29: Right now it appears that Turner will be the Tigers' No. 5 starter, a role for which he's probably not completely ready, but he has the raw stuff to help the club while he works on developing his changeup and improving his fastball command.
6. Addison Reed, RHP | Top 100 rank -- 97: He has a clear job in Chicago's 'pen, two pitches to help him succeed right away and a chance to close at some point this year.
7. Mike Trout, CF | Top 100 rank -- 1: They can't really send him back to Triple-A, can they? He might be the best overall outfielder on the 40-man roster, and once the Angels feel comfortable sending some of their dead weight to the bench, he'll be up and ready to add value on defense and on the bases, although I wouldn't expect much power in the near term.
8. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP | Top 100 rank -- 14: I believe Vizcaino should work as a starter, but he's penciled in for a spot in Atlanta's 'pen, and I expect him to be good enough there that the club ends up reluctant to return him to the rotation. He'll show three weapons (although he needs to use that changeup more against lefties) to miss bats with enough control to get by in the 'pen right now despite iffy command.
9. Drew Pomeranz, LHP | Top 100 rank -- 45: In the abstract, I like Pomeranz's three-pitch mix from the left side as a potential No. 2 starter. But he's never been a ground ball guy, and while Colorado has a good defensive club, Coors Field can be unforgiving to fly ball pitchers, which may mean a major adjustment for Pomeranz that holds down his performance this year.
10. Bryce Harper, RF | Top 100 rank -- 2: I know manager Davey Johnson keeps saying he thinks Harper should make the Opening Day roster, and perhaps the Nats will force it, but as much as I believe Harper will be an MVP-caliber player at his peak, Opening Day is too soon. He needs to continue to work on recognizing off-speed stuff, especially on the outer half. He could hit 25 homers right now, but the point is to develop him into a complete player who hits for average, gets on base and eventually hits 40 homers a year.
11. Trevor Bauer, RHP | Top 100 rank -- 21: Bauer could be in the top few spots on this list if he had a spot in Arizona's rotation, but he'll start the season in the minors barring an injury. That said, Joe Saunders isn't as good as Bauer, and Josh Collmenter is a novelty act whose deception won't cover his lack of stuff for much longer, and I think Bauer's ability to miss bats with multiple pitches will get him to the majors sooner rather than later. Teammate Tyler Skaggs also could be in line for a call-up, as the D-backs will be better off with Bauer and Skaggs in the No. 4-5 spots for the second half of the season than they would be with Collmenter and Saunders.
12. Mike Montgomery, LHP | Top 100 rank -- 52: There's no room at the inn in Kansas City, although the Royals' current top three starters aren't as strong as the ones in front of Bauer in Arizona. When the Royals need to call up a starter it'll be Montgomery, who has the velocity and changeup to miss bats but needs to show he can throw quality strikes.
13. Matt Harvey, RHP | Top 100 rank -- 38: I think there's a reasonable argument that, right now, Harvey is among the five best starting options in the organization, behind Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey and Jon Niese, and a fair bet to outproduce Dillon Gee this year in equal time. (I know Johan Santana might be back, but the odds of him being healthy and effective for a full season in 2012 are just not that high.) Harvey's fastball is 91-97 mph with good plane, he has better off-speed stuff than fellow prospect Jeurys Familia, and more upside than any of the fringy guys the Mets are likely to cycle through their rotation. He does need to find one good breaking ball between his curve and slider, but he's not going to be worse than Chris Schwinden or Miguel Batista. By June, it should be Harvey's turn.
14. Brad Peacock, RHP | Top 100 rank -- NR: In a neutral environment, Peacock profiles as a reliever with plus velocity but no downhill plane and no above-average secondary pitch. However, Oakland's ballpark is one of the best places for a pitcher with that profile, and I expect Peacock to provide some value as a starter that he wouldn't have in most other ballparks.
15. Yonder Alonso, 1B | Top 100 rank -- 69: I don't see Jesus Guzman as a long-term answer at first for the Padres, and Alonso's power should really be back now that he's more than two years removed from wrist surgery. Petco Park is not a very friendly place for a hitter with Alonso's kind of power, which is good but not Harper-esque.
16. Anthony Rizzo, 1B | Top 100 rank -- 36: He was promoted a little too soon last year, and needs more reps against left-handed pitching, which has become a significant problem for him in the high minors. Given another half-season in Triple-A, however, there's no reason he can't at least be a platoon bat at first for the Cubs this year, taking the full-time first-base job for good in 2013.
17. Brett Jackson, CF | Top 100 rank -- 89: He'll struggle with contact in the majors, just as he did in Triple-A (64 K's in 215 plate appearances), but he could add value through defense, doubles power and speed if he's given an everyday job this year.
18. Casey Kelly, RHP | Top 100 rank -- 32: The Padres are in a bind with Kelly, who racked up 48 starts and 237 innings at Double-A before he turned 22, showing ace stuff but ordinary results. Their options are all unappealing: a third year in Double-A; a promotion to Triple-A Tucson, which is an insane hitters' park; or a promotion to the big leagues, where the better competition might be mitigated by the huge ballpark (and five or six starts a year against the Giants' lineup). He's one of the seven or eight best starters in the system right now, and by mid-July should be good enough for the call.
19. Julio Teheran, RHP | Top 100 rank -- 18: I imagine he'll be the first call-up for Atlanta if and when the Braves have an opening in their rotation, which could happen early if Tommy Hanson is slow to come back from his rotator cuff tear (or eventually needs surgery). Teheran's breaking ball isn't ready for prime time yet and he doesn't hide the ball well, but he does have present velocity and an above-average changeup to get by if he's pressed into action.
20. Heath Hembree, RHP | Top 100 rank -- NR: If the Giants need a reliever at some point this season, Hembree's their best internal option, and a potential future closer for them as well, with a big fastball up to 98 mph and progress with both his slider and changeup now that he's pitching regularly.
Other names to know for 2012: Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals; Taylor Green, 3B, Brewers; Joe Benson, OF, Twins; Tyler Thornburg, RHP, Brewers (reliever); Yasmani Grandal, C, Padres; Jeurys Familia, RHP, Mets (reliever).
