Logjam in the middle of the SEC

[NAHSTE]

It's conventional wisdom that the SEC will only get five teams into the NCAA tournament this year. That leaves two openings after the three locks (Kentucky, Florida, Vandy). But with four teams currently tied at 4th place in conference, who knows which two that will be. Here are the teams in question, plus Tennessee:

Team|Conf.|Ovr.|RPI
Miss. State |6-6|19-8|58
Alabama|6-6|17-9|35
LSU|6-6|16-10|62
Tennessee|6-6|14-13|109

Obviously the Vols are not a serious consideration for the Big Dance, but they are contributing to the logjam nonetheless. There is also Arkansas in the mix at 5-7 in league play, 17-11 overall, with an RPI of 75, so essentially there are four teams vying for the final two spots.

Mississippi State is sliding badly, having lost three straight, including to bottom-feeding Auburn and Georgia. Alabama is still without the key players they suspended, and after starting 13-3 they've gone just 4-6 since.

LSU has the easiest remaining slate, with just Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Auburn left. State has Kentucky and Alabama this week and S. Carolina and Arkansas the next. Aside from the meeting with State, Alabama has Arkansas, Auburn and Ole Miss left.

Based on the way things are set up, it could very well end up being LSU that nabs one of the final tourney spots. The winner of the Alabama-State match up will likely take the other.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I think if Mississippi St and Alabama can just go .500 and win one SEC tournament game, they will be ok.

I think LSU and Arkansas need deep tourney runs.

 

[Senser81]

If Tennessee still had Bruce Pearl, they'd be a lock and probably getting an 8 or 9 seed. Triple digit RPI, .500 conference record, mediocre overall record, no out-of-conference wins to speak of...lock!

I think in these situations too much is dependent on what other teams outside the SEC does and how many spots are taken by mid-majors. There could be more SEC teams this year, because I don't see the Big East getting their usual 12-14 teams into the NCAA Tournament.

 

[Rudi]

personally I see Alabama and LSU getting in the tournament out of these teams. Miss St is playing terrible of late, and I could see LSU sneaking in [if they keep winning] and taking that spot. Bama should be fine as long as they dont collapse

 

[NAHSTE]

LSU fell to Ole Miss by 23 points. Probably a fatal blow to our at-large hopes, unless we make a crazy run in the conference tournament. It's in New Orleans, which should help out some, but I've been burned in the past with that statement.

:lolsu:

 

[NAHSTE]

LSU lost in OT to Tennessee last night. Crushing, crushing defeat. I'll update the standing shortly for the three of you who care, but it's not looking great for the Tigers unless they rattle off four straight in New Orleans.