LOL Red Sox

[Villain]

itino:

I already addressed that point. See: Drew Stubbs and Tony Gwynn Jr. Fast and good at defense from a centerfielder. Whoop-de-doo. Talking offensive production here.

BJ adds value because it helped his brother to the team. What's not to understand?

Justin came by trade, not free agent. Do you really think he vetoes that trade if BJ isn't there?

 

[MVPete]

Of course they're bad. In my opinion, Mattingly is fine and it's Colletti that should go. :kanye:

Still doesn't change the point at hand, which is that I'd rather have Andre Ethier than BJ Upton. Ethier's contract is definitely worse, but I think he's better than BJ and I know that Ethier's contract isn't an issue since the team's TV rights alone are more than their massive payroll. Can't say the same about the Braves and BJ Upton's deal.

Who the fuck cares if you'd rather have Ethier or BJ Upton, I'd like to think we are smarter around here than to create alternate universes where we can choose which player we'd rather have and discuss the teams and their rosters as they are instead. Also pointing out that the Dodgers have unlimited funds is a shitty answer when other's question the contracts of the players currently on the roster, whether they have enough money to burn or not it's still wasted money. You don't want to get into the habit of not making smart financial decisions because it can backfire and turn into a dumpster fire like the Dodgers are currently experiencing.

Going forward I think the Dodgers still turn this around somewhat and finish around .500, I just don't think they'll be able to get everyone on the field long enough to do anything more than that. They have too many guys with injury problems(Matt Kemp is probably still not 100%), not enough starting pitching, not a good enough pen, and no depth what so ever.

 

[NAHSTE]

I already addressed that point. See: Drew Stubbs and Tony Gwynn Jr. Fast and good at defense from a centerfielder. Whoop-de-doo. Talking offensive production here.

But that's only half the equation. BJ has been a +6 fielder and provided roughly neutral (-0.1 WAR) value. And that's with being an absolute corpse at the plate.

Justin came by trade, not free agent. Do you really think he vetoes that trade if BJ isn't there?

Their agent only came up with the idea to add Seattle to Justin's no-trade list after BJ signed with Atlanta, funnily enough. The parents no longer wanted one playing on the west coast and one on the east coast.

 

[Villain]

Who the fuck cares if you'd rather have Ethier or BJ Upton, I'd like to think we are smarter around here than to create alternate universes where we can choose which player we'd rather have and discuss the teams and their rosters as they are instead. Also pointing out that the Dodgers have unlimited funds is a shitty answer when other's question the contracts of the players currently on the roster, whether they have enough money to burn or not it's still wasted money. You don't want to get into the habit of not making smart financial decisions because it can backfire and turn into a dumpster fire like the Dodgers are currently experiencing.

If I wanted to discuss the team as a whole, I'd be doing it in the Doyers thread that I made. It's hardly a waste of time on a deserted forum like this one to compare the bad contracts of two outfielders.

I'm merely having fun revisiting a claim I made a little while back. Oh the humanity!

At no point did I claim that the Dodgers are better run or better as a whole than the Braves. I think the Braves are doing great things and that, on the whole, they're doing things the right way. BJ Upton's signing was a counter to what we've seen from the Braves organization, which is why his contract - which wouldn't be a sneeze if he were on the Dodgers right now - is the largest they've ever given out.

Obviously this is very early and it's not like he doesn't have time to improve - the Braves did the smart thing by buying the years in which most players are considered to be in their prime (roughly 28-32 by my opinion). Ethier is also doing very poorly and even his lacking offensive numbers are dwarfing BJ's. The Braves broke from tradition in signing BJ and the early signs are that of a disaster.

Going forward I think the Dodgers still turn this around somewhat and finish around .500, I just don't think they'll be able to get everyone on the field long enough to do anything more than that. They have too many guys with injury problems(Matt Kemp is probably still not 100%), not enough starting pitching, not a good enough pen, and no depth what so ever.

The state of the Dodgers is ugly right now. 2nd worst run production in the NL, but even the bullpen - which is the scapegoat of the day - doesn't have the worst ERA in the NL West. That title goes to the 1st Place San Francisco Giants. There's still three-quarters of the season for the Giants to fall on their face and the Dodgers slugging to heat up.

Since I'm bored at work, I'll go ahead at evaluate the entirety of the Dodgers in the Doyers thread and you can give me shit and have fun cherry picking my optimism and homerism this afternoon.

 

[MVPete]

"From Rotoworld, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said Wednesday that the club has discussed calling up prospect outfielders Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson.
Very interesting. However, while the Dodgers are struggling to score runs, it's hard to see a great fit for playing time as long as Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Carl Crawford are healthy. Puig, 22, is batting .314/.385/.579 with six homers and a .964 OPS through 32 games this season with Double-A Chattanooga. Pederson has been even better, batting .327/.400/.554 with eight homers, 13 stolen bases and a .954 OPS."

Good for Mattingly, I think you'll see Van Slyke platoon with Ethier for awhile before they call these 2 guys up though.

 

[Villain]

"From Rotoworld, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said Wednesday that the club has discussed calling up prospect outfielders Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson.
Very interesting. However, while the Dodgers are struggling to score runs, it's hard to see a great fit for playing time as long as Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Carl Crawford are healthy. Puig, 22, is batting .314/.385/.579 with six homers and a .964 OPS through 32 games this season with Double-A Chattanooga. Pederson has been even better, batting .327/.400/.554 with eight homers, 13 stolen bases and a .954 OPS."

Good for Mattingly, I think you'll see Van Slyke platoon with Ethier for awhile before they call these 2 guys up though.

Click here ---> http://www.virtualsportsnetwork.com...oyers-Thread&p=2276584&viewfull=1#post2276584

 

[Villain]

5/17/13:

Andre: 267/.355/.385
BJ: .145/.242/.244

6/15/13:

Andre: .236/.320/.361
BJ: .166/.264/.312



So in a month, all of Ethier's numbers have gone down. All of BJ's numbers have gone up.

 

 

[MVPete]

Let's get back to talking about Shane Victorino being awful.

 

[Goober]

Every time this thread is bumped I think it is a Red Sox fan bragging about Victorino, but then I check the numbers and Victorino is still terrible. Brutal contract.

 

[NAHSTE]

5/17/13:


6/15/13:

Andre: .236/.320/.361
BJ: .166/.264/.312



So in a month, all of Ethier's numbers have gone down. All of BJ's numbers have gone up.

 

Regression to the mean is a hell of a drug.

 

[Obst]

Every time this thread is bumped I think it is a Red Sox fan bragging about Victorino, but then I check the numbers and Victorino is still terrible. Brutal contract.

Besides getting injured, what about him has been terrible this year? In 40 games he is already at 1.5 WAR. Let's say he got near his 2012 season and put up a 2.9 WAR. His numbers were .255/.321/.388/ with 11 HR, 55 RBI and 11 steals. According to fangraphs those numbers were worth $13.2 million dollars, without mentioning his fielding was way worse than what it is this year. How could a 3 year contract be that bad? He will probably end up being worth that 2.9 WAR number this year, so unless he is absolutely horrendous in the next two years I don't know how it would be a terrible contract.

 

[Goober]

Besides getting injured, what about him has been terrible this year? In 40 games he is already at 1.5 WAR. Let's say he got near his 2012 season and put up a 2.9 WAR. His numbers were .255/.321/.388/ with 11 HR, 55 RBI and 11 steals. According to fangraphs those numbers were worth $13.2 million dollars, without mentioning his fielding was way worse than what it is this year. How could a 3 year contract be that bad? He will probably end up being worth that 2.9 WAR number this year, so unless he is absolutely horrendous in the next two years I don't know how it would be a terrible contract.

Lets take a look at what makes up that 1.5 WAR figure:
-2.4 runs with his bat
1.5 runs from baserunning
10.8 runs for defense
5.0 run for showing up
-1.6 runs for his position

So virtually his entire value is derived from his defense. Hell he has the fourth highest fielding runs above average adjustment in all of baseball. This figure is based off of UZR. Victorino's UZR/150 this year is 51.9, his previous season best is 22.0 in 2006. So which way do you think that figure is going to move the rest of the season? Will Victorino continue to have the greatest defensive season ever as rated by UZR? Or will he regress to the mean? He's 32, I'd bet on the latter. As he returns to his normal self, those runs saved in RF won't be getting any higher, and could even go lower. So I'm not expecting his total WAR figure to get any higher this year from defense.

Offensively, Victorino's bat has negative value. We knew this last year, it's why the three year deal was criticized. Defensive metrics can fluctuate leading to short term outliers in player value, as noted above. But offensive numbers who have seven plus MLB seasons under their belt are much easier to predict. His offensive numbers took a freefall last year, and they're even worse this year. .307 wOBA. 88 wRC+. These are not good figures. His bat is below average in RF.

Now depending, on what assumptions you make about his defense going forward, Victorino may or may not be worth his 13 million salary this year, but the next two years? As his bat continues to drop in value, and his glove will likely follow suit. I don't expect him to get anywhere close to 8 WAR over the three years, so yes bad contract.

 

[Villain]

Regression to the mean is a hell of a drug.

:ukiddingme:

So I should expect Ethier's numbers to go up? Do you know what the mean is?

 

[NAHSTE]

:ukiddingme:

So I should expect Ethier's numbers to go up? Do you know what the mean is?

You can continue to expect BJ Upton's numbers to climb north is all I meant.

 

[Villain]

7/25/13:

Andre .275/.354/.411 with a .331 wOBA
BJ .177/.266/.300, with a .253 wOBA

Dat mean. :jordan: