Looking way ahead, is Andruw Jones a Hall of Famer?

[NAHSTE]

Saw this topic on fangraphs and thought it'd be an interesting discussion.

This one might be stretching the feeble brain power of some members of the VSN committee, but I just want to know if VSN thinks there's a place in the HOF for a 400-HR hitter who also happened to be one of the greatest defensive players of all time. (Full disclosure, Andruw was my favorite player growing up, so I'm a tad biased.)

His 23.70 defensive WAR (wins above replacement) is 2nd only to Brooks Robinson all-time. He won 10 straight gold gloves and hit for great power for a CF, currently sitting at 46th all time with 407 homers. Should have won the 2005 MVP when he led the league in HR and RBI and led a team full of rookies to the postseason, but finished 2nd to Pujols for some reason.

Sadly, his production fell off a cliff at age 31, and he is nothing but a situational player now, at best. But I ask again, is there a place in Cooperstown for a 400-HR hitter who happens to own the 2nd greatest defensive WAR of all time?

I say no at this time, just because he didn't do enough for long enough, but if he has a second peak late in his career and/or reaches 500 homers, he should be a shoe-in.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I have a real hard time putting a player in the HOF who declined so rapidly in such an extreme manner, at such a young age. Its astonishing. Last four years he's hit .222, .158 (!), .214, and .230. Wow. Normally I can excuse this, but not when it happens at 30.

With that said, I was shocked to see he had over 400 HR's. And he earned 9 out of his 10 GG's, but it evens out because he should have won one his rookie year but didn't. Nearly half of his WAR value is defensive.

Ultimately he has similar offensive numbers as Dale Murphy, but Murphy did it in a less hitter friendly era, and I would not put Murphy in. So I say no.

 

[FedEx227]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-andruw-jones-a-hall-of-famer/

 

[NAHSTE]

I have a real hard time putting a player in the HOF who declined so rapidly in such an extreme manner, at such a young age. Its astonishing. Last four years he's hit .222, .158 (!), .214, and .230. Wow. Normally I can excuse this, but not when it happens at 30.

Yeah it's unreal. He plays like a 40 year old even though he's only 33. I think he just loves eating more than he loves baseball. His excuse every time he would show up to spring training out of shape would be "My mother's cooking is too good."

He is a genuine free spirit who could just flat out play baseball. I can see not letting him in due to the rapid decline in production. It's why I'd vote no today, too.

But at the same time, Kirby Puckett is in, and AJ is the better defender and twice the power hitter.

Ultimately he has similar offensive numbers as Dale Murphy, but Murphy did it in a less hitter friendly era, and I would not put Murphy in. So I say no.

Yeah, if Murphy isn't in, it's hard to see AJ getting in. But it's insane when you think about a 10-time gold glove winner with 400 homers not getting in, especially when you could legitimately say at certain times in his career that he was the best CF in the game, when he played in the same era as Ken Griffey, Jr.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-andruw-jones-a-hall-of-famer/

LOL yeah, got this idea from fangraphs, and the poll options made the most sense. Should've posted a link, but thank you for doing so. I hate plagiarism as much as the next guy.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-andruw-jones-a-hall-of-famer/

Where are they getting the 70.5 WAR? Everywhere I look has 59.9

 

[NAHSTE]

Where are they getting the 70.5 WAR? Everywhere I look has 59.9

I think he added the dWAR to it, but that would equal more than 70.5.

 

[FirstTimer]

Should have won the 2005 MVP when he led the league in HR and RBI and led a team full of rookies to the postseason, but finished 2nd to Pujols for some reason.

Because Albert hit .330 with 41HR's 117RBI's. .430 OBP SLG .609. OPS 1.039. OPS+ 168. His team won 100 games as well.

Jones only hit .263 that season . .347OBP SLG .575. OPS .922 OPS+ 136.

Pujols had a hell of a case in 2005. *EDIT* This was the year DLee was in the running as well and Pujols he may have set a major league record for game winning RBI's that season.*

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

Andruw is one of my all-time favourites. His combination of power, incredible defense, and even speed was matched by few in his ERA. Dude made plays out in CF that made your jaw drop. His quick decline at a young age is likely hindering him from consideration, but if he could continue to play long enough to crack 500 HRs it would probably help a lot.

 

[FirstTimer]

I'd vote Jones in. One of, if not the, premier CF right after Griffey began to decline when he left Seattle.

400+ HR's and 10 GG's is tough to ignore and leave out.

Him and Jim Edmonds will be very interesting guys to see if they get in.

 

[Irish]

Even though he is my second baseball idol after Griffey, I doubt he gets in, and I wouldn't vote for him.

 

[NAHSTE]

Because Albert hit .330 with 41HR's 117RBI's. .430 OBP SLG .609. OPS 1.039. OPS+ 168. His team won 100 games as well.

Jones only hit .263 that season . .347OBP SLG .575. OPS .922 OPS+ 136.

Pujols had a hell of a case in 2005. I can't remember now though or if it was the year Albert lost to Derrek Lee but he also may have set a major league record for game winning RBI's that season as well.

I'm not arguing against the fact that Pujols had a better overall offensive season, but Andruw Jones was more valuable to his team. Chipper only played in 109 games that year and was hurt for all of June and half of July, during which time a 47-year old Julio Franco or a rookie Adam LaRoche was his lineup protection. His outfield mates were rookies Ryan Langerhans and Jeff Francoeur (or rookie Kelly Johnson who started his career hitless in his first 35 or so at bats). This is the same team that famously had 18 rookies start or contribute and was known as the "Baby Braves." You take him off that team and it maybe wins 80 games.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I think he added the dWAR to it, but that would equal more than 70.5.

I've got 36.2 o, 23.7 d for a total of 59.9

 

[FedEx227]

I've got 36.2 o, 23.7 d for a total of 59.9

I think the problem is FanGraphs has a different WAR equation than that of Baseball Reference if that's what you're cross referencing.

For example using 2005 Baseball Reference has his WAR at 7.1 with dWAR at 1.8. FanGraphs has him at 8.3 for year. Even if you add WAR and dWAR from BR it's still not equal. It most likely has to do with how they grade defense. Some value it higher than others.

 

[FirstTimer]

Andruw Jones was more valuable to his team. Chipper only played in 109 games that year and was hurt for all of June and half of July, during which time Julio Franco was his lineup protection. His outfield mates were rookies Ryan Langerhans and Jeff Francoeur. This is the same team that famously had 18 rookies start or contribute. You take him off that team and it maybe wins 80 games.

Take Pujols off the Cards that season. Edmonds was having a down season. Rolen only played in 50 some odd games and Pujols was the only guy on that team to hit over .300 or more than 30 HR's. Jones had 10 more homeruns but only 11 more RBI's.

On the whole Giles, Furcal, and Jones are much better protection than what Albert had in the St. Louis lineup that season too.

Jones 2005 total WAR: 7.1 (5.3o, 1.8d)

Pujols 2005 total WAR: 8.2 (7.2o, 1.0d)

 

[Senser81]

But at the same time, Kirby Puckett is in, and AJ is the better defender and twice the power hitter.

Puckett was a different type of hitter. Not exactly a good comparison, IMO. Puckett would usually hit .325 with 200 hits, and he was a right-handed contact hitter. Jones had a few big HR years that Puckett never really had, but that was also in the hitter's era. Jones more often than not was hitting .260-.270. Great for a "defensive player", but not HOF quality.

 

[NAHSTE]

Take Pujols off the Cards that season. Edmonds was having a down season. Rolen only played in 50 some odd games and Pujols was the only guy on that team to hit over .300 or more than 30 HR's. Jones had 10 more homeruns but only 11 more RBI's.

On the whole Giles, Furcal, and Jones are much better protection than what Albert had in the St. Louis lineup that season too.

Jones 2005 total WAR: 7.1 (5.3o, 1.8d)

Pujols 2005 total WAR: 8.2 (7.2o, 1.0d)

Edmons hit 29 homers that year, which would have been good for 2nd best on the Braves. Reggie Sanders' 21 would have tied for 2nd best on the Braves.

Plus they had veteran hitters like Larry Walker and Mark Grudzielanek. I'd take that over Ryan Langerhans and Johnny Estrada any day.

Pujols had a great season that year, but he played on a much better team. Without AJ that Braves team was hopeless.

 

[FirstTimer]

Plus they had veteran hitters like Larry Walker and Mark Grudzielanek. I'd take that over Ryan Langerhans and Johnny Estrada any day.

Walker was pretty much done and based on the type of players each team had even with Jones only playing 109 games or so I think most Cardinals fans would have easily rather had Jones, Giles, and Furcal over Nunez, Grudz, and Eck

 

[mcstl25]

Jones being one of the best defensive center fielders of all time makes for a compelling HOF case, but he needs to put together another solid two or three seasons to get in.

I can't believe Jones is only 33.

 

[dell71]

Hell no, Andruw Jones is NOT a HOF caliber player.

Is he one of the greatest defensive OFs of all time? Yup. However, unless you're Ozzie Smith - the glove isn't enough to get you in. Ask Keith Hernandez.

He had a few very good years, '05 included. However, his HRs (& subsequently RBI and every metric they affect are inflated due to the time he played in. If you don't think so, please note that in 15 years in his strongest offensive category, the HR, he only finished top 10 4 times (3 times in RBI). Sorry, 400 HR & 1200 RBI not HOF #s for a guy from the 'roid era. And no, I don't change my mind if he sticks around until he gets to 500. On top of that, during this same hitter friendly period he only bats .300 once and has a career BA of .256.

Comparing him to Kirby Puckett is laughable. Offensively, KP was better than AJ at every phase of the game except homeruns. Defensively, he was no slouch winning 6 GGs himself. His career totals in 12 seasons are almost as good as Jones' in 15 and KP played a large chunk of his career before the 'roid/small strikezone era. Plus, Puckett absolutely was a main cog on 2 WS winning teams.

Exhibit A:

162 game Avg|H|2B|3B|HR|RBI|SB|BA|OBP|SLG|OPS|OPS+
Jones|147|29|3|33|98|12|.256|.338|.488|.826|111
Puckett|209|38|5|19|99|12|.318|.360|.477|.837|124

And I haven't even mentioned that KP had a career-ending injury while Jones simply saw his production nosedive at age 30, crashing and burning completely at age 31.

 

[NAHSTE]

Dell just made me sad by ripping my favorite player's HOF resume to shreds.