Mets to Sign Jason Bay Pending Physicals

[EmpireWF]

WFAN's Francessa said today that the Mets are awaiting physicals and as long as nothing comes up, they will announce the signing of Jason Bay early next week.

 

[Mogriffjr]

wooo good stuff...now to get another pitcher in here!

 

[Champ]

Somehow we will still lose games. I hate my Mets.

 

[Mogriffjr]

rumor floating that Mets are trying to trade for Carlos Zambrano...Castillo and a prospect would be headed out to Cubs...

 

[Mogriffjr]

On Mad Dog Radio on XM the host, not Chris Russo, is reporting that according to his sources who he has been in touch with today the Mets could announce the signing of Matt Holliday, not Jason Bay, by the end of today and at the latest by Friday.

now this is a big ole WTF...this host has to be lying.

 

[Mogriffjr]

WEEI is reporting that Bay never had an issue with the Mets or CitiField but rather an issue with how much backloading the deal had.

 

[EmpireWF]

According to Sherman of the Post, Bay passing his physical is not a formality as Boston had concerns about his shoulder.

If he passes and the deal is official, it would be 4-years worth $66 million with a 5th year option that would be easy to attain if he remains healthy.

Also, if the deal becomes official, Boston will get the Mets 2nd-round draft pick and a supplemental pick.

 

[Yawkey Way]

A backloaded contract may work, but I honestly don't like the fit of Jason Bay in New York. I also think the Mets were bidding against himself, and could have gotten him for cheaper.

 

[Mogriffjr]

A backloaded contract may work, but I honestly don't like the fit of Jason Bay in New York. I also think the Mets were bidding against himself, and could have gotten him for cheaper.

4 for 66 which is what everyone thinks the deal is, is a great deal for the mets with the years.

 

[Leftwich]

Good for the Mets. I see Bay continuing to have good years even in New York.

 

[Obst]

Clear favorites to win the NL East now :shifty:

 

[WrightStuff]

4/66 is a good deal money wise for the Mets, I'm just not sure how well he will fare in NY. The .265 average scares me as opposed to Holliday's .313. I'm also not sure as to how well Bay will be able to handle left field in a spacious Citi Field.

 

[Yawkey Way]

probably one of the best baseball related posts i've seen in a while.

 

[EmpireWF]

Lets calm down. We all know Citi Field is NOT a hitters park.

Lets look at David Wright, formerly one of the games most feared sluggers.

2008 at Shea: .302, 33 HR, 124 RBI, .545 slugging percentage.

2009 at Citi: .307, 10 HR, 72 RBI, .445 slugging percentage.

You cant tell me that Citi Field doesnt play a huge role in this, a 30-120 guy now posting the same exact power numbers as Placido Polanco? That park literally changed David Wright from a power hitter, to not much of a power hitter at all. He totally changed his approach. I just cant say that stadium had nothing to do with it.

I just dont see any way possible he will mantain the power numbers. And he doesnt hit for the Average that Wright does, I can see him easily being a shell of what he was at Fenway Park. i dont believe his production will be anything worth 17 millions, thats for sure.

Meanwhile, Holliday is a line drive hitter who would thrive in Citi Field. I just think it was a dumb signing especially when you look at how Citi Field changed guys like David Wright.

I dont see Bays power staying the same. He had too many advantages in Boston, now hes at an extreme disadvantage.

And this team is not on Philadelphias level.

Nobody knows how much Citi Field has affected big Mets hitters like Wright and Beltran. It's just one season. Obviously it had some effect but to say nobody will hit 30 HRs there is too much to say right now.

Wright had nearly 100 less ABs in 2009 than 2008 and hit 23 HRs less than his career high in 2008 (33).

In 2008, Wright had 626 ABs and had 189 H and 33 HR. In 2009, he had 535 ABs with 164 H and 10 HR. Assuming the Mets bring in the fences somewhat, Wright's power should return in the mid-high 20s.

Looking at Beltran, in 2008 he had 27 HR in 606 ABs. In an injury plagued 2009, he saw 308 ABs and hit 10 HR. Like Wright, he hit for over .300 in 2009.

Bay averages 30 HR since 2004. I don't know that Mets should expect equal production, but I am fully expecting (as long as he stays healthy), he should hit at least 25 HRs.

As for Holliday, while he is definitely a better average hitter than Bay, Holliday is unproven in a big market. As far as HRs go, when he was with Oakland and their huge park, he had 11 HRs in 400 ABs.

Overall, the Mets had to bring in either Bay or Holliday. Bay has a track record of power (Pittsburgh's park is comparable to Citi in terms of HRs) and playing in a big market while Holliday does not (and Holliday would have commanded more money and years than Bay).

 

[tribeTILLiDIE]

The one thing the Mets managed to do right this offseason.

Coste, Molina, and Blanco.

Now if they got Mo Vaughn I would consider their offseason to be a huge success.

 

[WrightStuff]

It is irresponsible to compare Wright's HR stats between 08 and 09. It won't accurately show the influence that Citi Field had on him (if any).

What's fair to do is compare Citi Field 2009 with Away Fields 2009, that way its the same hitter all the way around, and the only difference is the ballpark.

There you go. It wasn't Citi Field, it was Wright. It wasn't Citi Field, it was the Mets. Thus, Bay should put up close to his career numbers in the park.

 

[WrightStuff]

I dont think he decided to stop hitting for power. The K's wouldnt soar up as they did if he was just looking for the gaps and average. I think Wright had an off year where many of his HRs turned into K's.

 

[EmpireWF]

It comes down to the Mets not wanting to invest the extra $40 million in Holliday.

I know the Mets like the idea of Bay at Citi Field because he pulls the ball (79 career homers were pulled compared to 24 to the opposite field. Of course, the majority of his career HR have been to straight away, which is where the # will likely come down in 2010).

Call me optimistic but I think last year's albatross of an offensive season will not be the norm for Citi Field. Wright has an off-season to get healthy and get himself right, Beltran the same as is the case with Reyes...they should hit better as a team next year.

I'm not expecting the HR #s to go through the roof but I am definitely not expecting them to be the worst team in the majors in that category.

As long as Bay is healthy and plays his usual 145+ game season, if he doesn't hit at least 20 HR and 80 RBI, I'd be shocked. Those are just the minimal numbers from his worst years as a Pirate.


The issues with Bay that worry me:

-By the end of the 4-year deal, he will turn 34-years old and possibly be on the team when he turns 35-years old
-I do worry about his health as his knees and shoulder are a concern. That becomes tenfold if the deal is backloaded.

People talk about how bad of a fielder he is, and while he may not be a gold glover, I think he'll be much better than Daniel Murphy was. He will be serviceable in the outfield.


As for Holliday, it sounds like if the Mets were interested in him and gave in to his demands of a 6-year, $100 million+ deal, they would have no room to bring in other players. They still need a pitcher, a catcher and a first baseman.

Now it's that rumored 2-year deal with Bengie Molina that has me more worried than Bay.

 

[EmpireWF]

As for Wright, if he has another poor year with higher Ks and equally low HRs, then maybe you have something that it is the ballpark.

What I think your're saying is the ballpark got into Wright's head because he changed his successful batting habits and it negatively effected him.

I think he's too smart to keep pushing what won't work.

 

[FedEx227]

Lets calm down. We all know Citi Field is NOT a hitters park.

Lets look at David Wright, formerly one of the games most feared sluggers.

2008 at Shea: .302, 33 HR, 124 RBI, .545 slugging percentage.

2009 at Citi: .307, 10 HR, 72 RBI, .445 slugging percentage.

You cant tell me that Citi Field doesnt play a huge role in this, a 30-120 guy now posting the same exact power numbers as Placido Polanco? That park literally changed David Wright from a power hitter, to not much of a power hitter at all. He totally changed his approach. I just cant say that stadium had nothing to do with it.

So here comes the point:

They spend that money on a guy who is big power hitter, a big power hitter in a right handers paradise. He hit for the Power Wright used to. But Bay only hit .265.

If Wright couldnt hit with nearly the same power in Citi, what makes you think Bay will? Wright can still hit for average though, Bay doesnt. He hit .267, .247, and .287 the past few years.

I just dont see any way possible he will mantain the power numbers. And he doesnt hit for the Average that Wright does, I can see him easily being a shell of what he was at Fenway Park. i dont believe his production will be anything worth 17 millions, thats for sure.

Meanwhile, Holliday is a line drive hitter who would thrive in Citi Field. I just think it was a dumb signing especially when you look at how Citi Field changed guys like David Wright.

I dont see Bays power staying the same. He had too many advantages in Boston, now hes at an extreme disadvantage.

And this team is not on Philadelphias level.

Actually Citi Field didn't do too bad in the hitter department last year.

Obviously it's only 1 season so the sample size is pretty small but all the park factors pointed towards it being a decently hitter friendly place, nearly identical to Shea in terms of power numbers. Shea still has a slim advantage, but not enough that it should be entirely blamed for Wright's sharp decline last year.

Runs: .943 (22nd overall)
HR: 1.057 (12th overall)
2B: .955 (19th overall)
3B: 1.200 (7th overall)

Now compare that to Shea Stadium 2008

Runs: .946 (21st overall)
HR: 1.081 (9th overall)
2B: .935 (22th overall)
3B: .500 (29th overall)

The most telling factor with Wright though isn't just his home power numbers, but his road ones also took a sharp decline. As you're saying, it's possible he just adjusted his swing, but I'm not sure that's as much Citi Field's fault as it is Wright's fault.