OK stat geeks, try to explain this one

[Warner2BruceTD]

Check out the year-by-year strikeout rate of PITCHER X, who is now in his fifth season:

8.2
6.9
6.7
6.0

A steady (almost rapid) drop each season, which would normally be alarming and an indication that this pitcher is no longer getting outs, because he is missing far fewer bats.

But take a look at these rates...

H/9
9.2
9.0
8.8
7.1

HR/9
1.5
1.3
0.9
0.5

BB/9
3.5
3.2
2.7
2.7

And the results....

ERA
4.81
4.41
3.64
2.31

WHIP
1.414
1.360
1.276
1.090


So over the course of four seasons, which is a significant sample size, PITCHER X has improved steadily in every area, despite decreasing strike out rates each year. Every other number improves.

PITCHER X after his first start of 2012, where he struck out "only" 5 batters over 7 innings (3 Hits, 0 Runs):

"I don't care or look for strikeouts," PITCHER X said. "I look to get outs with less pitches."

This has been his story for the last four seasons. Less power, more finesse, induce weak contact, rear back for the K when the situation dictates. Same pitching coach all four years, who has managed to get PITCHER X to buy into this approach.

There is way too much evidence to chalk this up as 'luck', but I wonder what the advanced stat community thinks. He seems to be the perfect example of ZOMG REGRESSION CANDIDATE, but I never see those types of articles about this pitcher. Maybe because all of those articles were three years ago, and it would look kind of silly to write that now.

So I guess my question is, in an era where we scrutinize every pitcher who losses a half mile per hour of velocity, and we focus more about strike out totals and average fastball speed while losing sight of the raw results, would it be wiser for teams to ask some pitchers to settle down, take something off the fastball, reduce walks, and work for weak contact? Could somebody like Edwin Jackson, who had loads of talent, have benefited early in his career from a pitching coach who encouraged him to slow it down, stop trying to strike everybody out, reduce his walks, and get a ground ball now & then so he doesn't have 90 pitches by the 6th inning every start?

How many potential Mark Buehrle's have been squandered in recent years?

 

[Rudi]

 

I knew this was Cueto before I opened the thread

But I just think it is a case of PITCHER X learning how to actually pitch and use all portions of the zone with consistency instead of trying to blow everyone away.

 

[Primetime]

I wish Gallardo had that mentality. He wastes so many pitches trying to strike everyone out. I remember watching a Greg Maddux interview when I was young and it changed my entire philosophy on pitching. Maddux wanted the hitter to hit the ball. He didn't want to waste a dozen pitches an inning trying to get hitters to swing and miss. The only thing Maddux wanted them to miss was the sweet spot. While the strikeout was always the cool feeling, getting through an inning in 6 pitches was great.

 

[Slateman]

Pitching to contact?

 

[Villain]

Story of Jamie Moyer's career. Less speed, more success. Doesn't he rear back for like a 79mph fastball? Same goes for Greg Maddux. He is attached to the pitching proverb of dialing it down instead of speeding it up when he got into bad counts.

 

[spiker]

What are his ground ball and fly ball ratios?

It sounds like this pitcher has learned to pitch to contact, get batters to swing at his pitches, and possibly induce ground balls more frequently.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

What are his ground ball and fly ball ratios?

It sounds like this pitcher has learned to pitch to contact, get batters to swing at his pitches, and possibly induce ground balls more frequently.

GB%
38.6
41.6
41.7
53.7

FB%
40.5
40.6
38.9
30.1

HR/FB
13.9
11.2
8.6
5.8

From the start of his career until today, he's getting significantly less fly balls, significantly more ground balls, and the fly balls hes' giving up are leaving the park far less frequently.

But when you allow more contact, you are supposed to allow more runs. Isn't that how it's supposed to work? Thus the useless FIP stat.

 

[spiker]

GB%
But when you allow more contact, you are supposed to allow more runs. Isn't that how it's supposed to work?

The only other thing I could think of is that your GB% has a higher correlation to lower totals of runs allowed then FIP or BABIP.

FIP and BABIP were introduced as more of a defensive metric - to see which pitchers benefited the most from their team defense. No?

Anyways, I'm just tossing shit around here. See if it any of it sticks.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I think the lesson here, is if you are going to actively reduce strike outs, you better A.) not walk anybody, and B.) reduce fly balls (home runs).

I think a big thing with this pitcher, is the K's were reduced by design, and he was able to induce more ground balls to replace those lost K's.

The oddity here, is not that the fly balls have been reduced so drastically, but that the percentage of fly balls that go over the wall have also decreased so much. This guy is getting tons of weak ground outs and lazy fly balls. One year, ok, but three years of steady improvement in all of these areas? How common is this?

 

[Rudi]

Basically PITCHERX is the greatest of all time

:kanye:

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I was always fascinated by this guy: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wangch01.shtml

Look at his career. As his K's went up, so did his walks, and his results suffered.

Nobody that i've ever seen induced more weak ground out than Wang. And he never gave up HR's. How does BABIP and FIP treat him?

Wang basically was at his best when his strikeout per 9 was around 3.5. Did some pitching coach or manager screw him up by preaching K's? With him it was more likely the injuries, but who knows (or does that all tie together?).

 

[Mogriffjr]

I think the lesson here, is if you are going to actively reduce strike outs, you better A.) not walk anybody, and B.) reduce fly balls (home runs).

I think a big thing with this pitcher, is the K's were reduced by design, and he was able to induce more ground balls to replace those lost K's.

The oddity here, is not that the fly balls have been reduced so drastically, but that the percentage of fly balls that go over the wall have also decreased so much. This guy is getting tons of weak ground outs and lazy fly balls. One year, ok, but three years of steady improvement in all of these areas? How common is this?

he seems to be one of those rare cases...I couldn't think off the top of my head someone who improved ten-fold in all aspects, except decreasing K's...

 

[Goober]

How many potential Mark Buehrle's have been squandered in recent years?

This is kind of silly because Pitcher X's stuff is a lot better then Mark Buehrle's. When you throw like that you'll get more chances.

Anyways, Warner knows why Pitcher X is improving each year. (I knew immediately who pitcher x was, knowing warner. Sorry about that am I disqualified?). When this guy came into the majors, he didn't know how to pitch so to speak, he was just throwing, the command was erratic. He kept hitters off balance, but he also walked a lot, and threw up some meat balls. Four years latter he's learned a few things.

As for the sinking K/9 numbers. That's normal for almost any pitcher. A player's K/9 usually peaks early in their career, so if they can't strike people out then, they probably never will.