Ranking Offense and Defense....Yards or Points ?

[KINGOFOOTBALL]

Ive always thought it was stupid to rank teams based on yardage. When we think of the most prolific Os and Ds of all time we dont think yardage we think points.
Occasionally you come across some oddities. Like this years Cowboys.
Offensive Rank
Points : 2nd
Yards: 19th

Up until NO tore them up
Defensive Rank
Points:15th
Yards:32nd


Is that offense the second best in the league ? Or is it near the bottom ?
Is that defense the worst in the league ? Or was it just mediocre ?

It wouldnt bother me as much if sports writers wouldnt manipulate those numbers to spin stories. This isnt meant to be Cowboys thread but I think the points per game is a more telling stat. (Dallas has since dropped to 27th). I get that defense and special teams can score but yardage is useless without points. And who cares how many yards you give up if the other team aint scoring.

 

[NAHSTE]

Yards per play > Raw yardage totals.

Efficiency is more important than anything else.

 

[JeremyHight]

Total Yardage is skewed because if the other team runs a ton more plays due to bad offense, the defense can look bad despite playing well.

Total Points is skewed because it includes defensive and special teams scores.

I'd say a happy median is either yards per play (as mentioned above) or averaging out the points and yards rank. It might not be perfect, but the average of the two does give a good idea as to the real rank of the offense or defense. For instance, I wouldn't say Dallas has the 2nd best offense or the 19th best offense, both are far away from the average, which is 10.5 and I could understand the argument for Dallas being the 10th best offense in the league. Same goes with defense, where they aren't 15th best, but they also aren't the worst. Their average would be about 23rd, and that is a good estimate of where their defense is right now.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

There is no good answer to this.

Football simply does not lend itself to statistical analysis the way baseball or even basketball does. Way too many variables.

 

[Tailback U]

Total yards and total points aren't a good way to measure production because they are largely based on the tempo of the game or several other variables.

A better way to measure would be average offensive points per possession or yards per play/possession.

Similar to basketball, measuring per possession stats is more telling. Here's a nice little blog about how it allows to basketball - http://www.burntorangenation.com/20...tatistics-understanding-possession-estimation

 

[Villain]

There is no good answer to this.

Football simply does not lend itself to statistical analysis the way baseball or even basketball does. Way too many variables.

Hence why I don't even try to act like I know anything about football. I don't think you can "know" anything about football without poring over tons of game footage and breaking down all the little matchups that happen all over the field in all the umpteen different scenarios.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

There is no good answer to this.

Football simply does not lend itself to statistical analysis the way baseball or even basketball does. Way too many variables.

To be fair, the college game has a certain level of quantifiable numbers in regards to team totals that tend to yield success. But, overall, your point is correct, the way baseball and basketball are statistically analyzed can not be done in football.

 

[NAHSTE]

There is no good answer to this.

Football simply does not lend itself to statistical analysis the way baseball or even basketball does. Way too many variables.

Agree on individual basis, disagree somewhat on a team basis. There are ways to measure a team's efficiency and tendencies, many have been around forever, some have been recently developed, but all are useful and indicative IMO.

To be fair, the college game has a certain level of quantifiable numbers in regards to team totals that tend to yield success.

This. Bill Connelly wrote a great book which touches on many of the useful statistical evaluation tools for team success.
http://www.amazon.com/Study-Hall-College-Football-Stories/dp/1484989961

 

[wr50l]

All stats are meaningless when not properly averaged out, but all can be useful when you break them down correctly. For example, sacks is a decent statistic but sacks/dropbacks is much more accurate; as has been touched upon already, the inconsistent flow of NFL games can make totals quite misleading.

I read just last night on ESPN that the Jets D were struggling against the pass, but they're 13th in yards/play and 8th on third down conversion %. I guess I would say I disagree with the worldwide leader in sports. I do think that TDs, fumbles (although recovery is unimportant) and ints are useful as purely raw numbers though. The main statistics that the wiseguys seem to worry about are yards/play, 3rd down %, redzone %, and time of possession.

One of the main problems with NFL statistics is how mismatched the schedule is. Just as an example, we are more than halfway through the season here and the Chiefs supposedly great pass defence has essentially only played against one good NFL quarterback. Even when you get to 16 games the statistics are not really completely telling because the sample size is still tiny.

 

[kmanharris]

Ive always thought it was stupid to rank teams based on yardage. When we think of the most prolific Os and Ds of all time we dont think yardage we think points.
Occasionally you come across some oddities. Like this years Cowboys.
Offensive Rank
Points : 2nd
Yards: 19th

Up until NO tore them up
Defensive Rank
Points:15th
Yards:32nd


Is that offense the second best in the league ? Or is it near the bottom ?
Is that defense the worst in the league ? Or was it just mediocre ?

It wouldnt bother me as much if sports writers wouldnt manipulate those numbers to spin stories. This isnt meant to be Cowboys thread but I think the points per game is a more telling stat. (Dallas has since dropped to 27th). I get that defense and special teams can score but yardage is useless without points. And who cares how many yards you give up if the other team aint scoring.

Are touchdowns scored by the defense/ST included in the offensive point totals?