Roy Halladay: HOFer?

[Senser81]

If yes, why? If no, then what other pitchers from his era are HOFers?

 

[SuperKevin]

I say yes.

 

[Leftwich]

As much as i wanna say no, he has to be in. He was fucking dominant for a decade. Towards the end of his career injuries killed him. For the longest time I thought he would get 300 wins but never happened.

 

[FedEx227]

Yeah, he's in.

One of the top 5-10 pitchers of his era, Black Ink/Grey Ink all put him in and though he lacks the longevity of some HOF pitchers, his peak is as good/better than most HOF pitchers.

 

[Senser81]

What other HOFer is Halladay most like, careerwise? Catfish Hunter? Immediate groan if your response is "Dazzy Vance".

 

[SuperKevin]

Baseball Reference Elo meter says he's comparable to Juan Marichal

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

Would be a travesty if he wasnt.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I think we've had this thread before, and i'll make the same comment.

He's a no brainer. But with that said, I don't think of this guy: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brownke01.shtml as a no brainer, and the numbers are amazingly similar. In fact, before looking at the page, my initial reaction to that guy would be 'no'.

 

[NAHSTE]

Yes, and he'd have more wins if it wasn't for that meddling Papelbon.

[10:38 AM] Berowsk: can somebody explain to me pitching stats? papelbon was awarded a save for the game last night but he came in with the lead.. shouldn't that just be a win for halladay?

 

[Youk]

Waiting for the HOF to put him in as a Phillie

:running:

 

[FedEx227]

I think we've had this thread before, and i'll make the same comment.

He's a no brainer. But with that said, I don't think of this guy: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brownke01.shtml as a no brainer, and the numbers are amazingly similar. In fact, before looking at the page, my initial reaction to that guy would be 'no'.

Brown doesn't have nearly the same pedigree IMO

Brown:
127 ERA+, 211 Wins, 68.3 career WAR/45.4 7yr-peak WAR/56.9 JAWS

Halladay:
131 ERA+, 203 Wins, 64.7 career WAR/50.6 7yr-peak WAR/57.7 JAWS

They seem similar but that +5 in peak WAR for Halladay tells a bigger story there as does Black Ink which doesn't favor Brown much because he simply wasn't head and shoulders above his peers while Halladay definitely was for a time. Brown pitched in an offensive-heavy era but wasn't better or even close to the Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz, Johnson, Clemens or Pedros of the world.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Yes, for the reasons stated above by everyone else. Halladay had a great peak, missed 300 wins by injuries cutting his career short, which could hurt him getting in by a couple years due to those who only look at counting stats.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Not sure why people though he was going to get to 300. He retired at 36, not 31.

Even if we give him 15 wins from ages 36-40 (generous totals), that puts him at 274. How many modern era pitchers averaged 15 wins per season from 36-40? How many guys even pitch until age 40? And that still leaves him 26 wins short. Sabathia was at 205 by age 32, which is essentially where Halladay was entering age 36, and he had an uphill battle even before he body finally broke down (he likely has zero chance now with the lost season, even if he hangs around for five more years and piles up wins as a below average pitcher).

It was highly unlikely Halladay was getting to 300, but it's going to be nearly impossible for anybody to do it. Innings limits take away wins early in careers, 5-man rotations make it extremely difficult, and if big, strong workhorses like Sabathia & Halladay break down before their late 30's, very few of these new age pitchers who aren't trained to go long into games or make 40 starts are going to do so. You have to e able to pitch until 40, and you have to at least be serviceable like Maddux & Johnson were from 36- onward.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Brown doesn't have nearly the same pedigree IMO

Brown:
127 ERA+, 211 Wins, 68.3 career WAR/45.4 7yr-peak WAR/56.9 JAWS

Halladay:
131 ERA+, 203 Wins, 64.7 career WAR/50.6 7yr-peak WAR/57.7 JAWS

They seem similar but that +5 in peak WAR for Halladay tells a bigger story there as does Black Ink which doesn't favor Brown much because he simply wasn't head and shoulders above his peers while Halladay definitely was for a time. Brown pitched in an offensive-heavy era but wasn't better or even close to the Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz, Johnson, Clemens or Pedros of the world.

This was sort of my point.

It's funny how on the surface, the numbers are nearly identical, but Halladay is viewed as a no brainer by most people, and I don't think I've seen anyone advocate Kevin Brown at all. That's a wide discrepancy for guys with such similar statistics who basically pitched in the same era (Brown pitched some years little pre steroid era, Halladay pitched some years post steroid era, and both spent primes directly in it).

We all watched both of these men and can directly understand their context. We know Halladay is a HOF pitcher, and we know Brown probably isn't (I wouldn't be offended at all if he got i, but he won't, and i'm largely indifferent). To me it illustrates why we have to be careful sometimes when we get annoyed at snubs or bad inductions from previous eras where we didn't live through the context, After we're dead, somebody is going to compare these two guys and wonder why Brown isn't in or never even came close.

 

[Senser81]

Brown:
127 ERA+, 211 Wins, 68.3 career WAR/45.4 7yr-peak WAR/56.9 JAWS

Halladay:
131 ERA+, 203 Wins, 64.7 career WAR/50.6 7yr-peak WAR/57.7 JAWS

Fat Guy:
114 ERA+, 214 wins, 68.2 career WAR/43.8 7yr-peak WAR/56.9 JAWS

 

[Senser81]

We all watched both of these men and can directly understand their context. We know Halladay is a HOF pitcher, and we know Brown probably isn't (I wouldn't be offended at all if he got i, but he won't, and i'm largely indifferent). To me it illustrates why we have to be careful sometimes when we get annoyed at snubs or bad inductions from previous eras where we didn't live through the context, After we're dead, somebody is going to compare these two guys and wonder why Brown isn't in or never even came close.

What if context is wrong? Was Catfish Hunter really that good? Was Bert Blyleven really that unremarkable? Should Andy Petitie not even be a footnote in baseball history? Was Jack Morris the best pitcher of the 1980's?

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Fat Guy:
114 ERA+, 214 wins, 68.2 career WAR/43.8 7yr-peak WAR/56.9 JAWS

Because i'm a MM veteran, I don't even have to look this up. I know you're talking about Rick Reuschel.

I bet he never even got 10% of the BBWAA vote.