Top 10 rotations, according to Buster Olney

[NAHSTE]

(Just trying to generate some discussion, I promise I'll stop copy and pasting insider Buster Olney columns once there's actually shit to talk about again.)

We're number 8! We're number 8!

Here's one humble ranking of the Top 10 rotations in the majors (and I'm going to cheat and list 11). Keep in mind this reflects that a pair of guys who could at least alter this list -- Carl Pavano and Andy Pettitte -- remain uncommitted for 2011 as of this writing.

1. Philadelphia Phillies

Combine the 2010 results for Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee, and this is what you get:

Games: 126
Innings: 883.1
Hits: 773
Earned runs: 279
Walks (and this is the most incredible number): 164
Strikeouts: 808
Earned run average: 2.84
Average innings per start: About 7

Those statistics are very, very special.

2. San Francisco Giants

The Giants posted the third-best ERA for any rotation in the majors, and then dominated in the postseason -- and here's something scary to think about: the Giants might actually be better in 2011. Tim Lincecum really seemed to learn from his adversity in August, working harder on his conditioning and adding a slider, and Madison Bumgarner showed his upside in the World Series. The concerns would be Jonathan Sanchez, who seemed to get very tired late last season, and Barry Zito, who posted a 4.70 ERA after the All-Star break.

3. Oakland Athletics

They very quietly posted the best starters' ERA in the majors last year, at 3.47, because of the incredible progression of Trevor Cahill and the excellence of Brett Anderson (when he wasn't dealing with injuries). Gio Gonzalez posted a 3.23 ERA in 33 starts, and Dallas Braden managed a 3.50 ERA in 30 starts. So long as Cahill and Anderson are healthy and productive, this will be a very tough group, with Brandon McCarthy or Rich Harden or somebody else working in the No. 5 spot.

4. Tampa Bay Rays

Look, the Rays lost a bunch of guys in their everyday lineup and in their bullpen, and they may lose ground in the standings -- but their rotation should be excellent, with the developing Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and Jeremy Hellickson wrapped around David Price, Matt Garza and James Shields. Now, it would appear very possible that the Rays deal Garza before the July 31 trade deadline, and Shields is a key, coming off a season in which he really struggled in the second half; his ERA was a whopping 5.59, and he just seemed to have no idea how to fix what ailed him.

5. Boston Red Sox

John Lackey and Josh Beckett were major disappointments for the Red Sox last season. But Clay Buchholz climbed into the elite tier of starters in the majors -- and Jon Lester was already there. Boston needs bounce-back seasons from Lackey and Beckett, not only in 2011, but in the years that follow, because the Red Sox have invested big dollars in both.

6. Milwaukee Brewers

Yovani Gallardo is 24 years old, has the stuff to be a frontline starter and could benefit from playing for a contender, and Randy Wolf had a decent first season with the Brewers. And now you add Shaun Marcum, who was a good pitcher in the AL East and should be able to take advantage of the NL lineups, and Zack Greinke, who might have as much pure talent as any pitcher in the majors not named Felix Hernandez. It could be a special group.

7. Detroit Tigers

Justin Verlander is one of the best and is in his prime, going 18-9 with a 3.37 ERA and 219 strikeouts in 224.1 innings last year, and Max Scherzer seemed to grow last year. In the same way, Rick Porcello overcame a horrendous start to pitch better down the stretch after he learned something about diagnosing his own mechanics pitch to pitch and inning to inning; Porcello, who turns 22 in a few days, lowered his ERA from 6.14 at the All-Star break to 4.00 in the second half. Phil Coke is expected to man one of the spots at the back end of the rotation.

8a. Atlanta Braves

Tim Hudson was a Cy Young candidate until a September fade, Derek Lowe was one of the majors' best pitchers down the stretch, Tommy Hanson was much better than his 10-11 win-loss record would indicate and the Braves would have reasonable hope that Jair Jurrjens -- crushed by injuries in 2010 -- will be better next summer.

8b. St. Louis Cardinals

Jaime Garcia was the front-runner for the NL Rookie of the Year for a lot of the season, and he will slot in third or fourth in this rotation, behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter and perhaps ahead of Jake Westbrook. The key to this group is Carpenter, who faded down the stretch. If this was just a blip, rather than an indicator of things to come for Carpenter, who turns 36 in April, then St. Louis will have one of the best rotations in the majors.

10a. Los Angeles Dodgers

By the second half of last season, Clayton Kershaw achieved the kind of dominance projected for him when he was in the minors; Kershaw held opponents to a .179 average in September. The Dodgers have a good group behind Kershaw, with Ted Lilly (who had a 3.52 ERA in 12 starts for L.A. in 2010), the underrated Hiroki Kuroda, Chad Billingsley and Jon Garland.

10b. Chicago White Sox

They've got a nice core of John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson, but the simple fact is that they have no idea what to expect out of Jake Peavy, who went 7-6 with a 4.63 ERA. If Peavy bounces back, this could be an excellent rotation.

 

[Rudi]

Reds got snubbed. :shifty:

 

[Lanteri]

I have a couple of problems with this list.

Detroit at 7? LOL, really? After Verlander and Scherzer, they have Porcello, who only showed up for half the year last year, and then Galarraga and god knows who else in the 4 and 5 spot. How that is a top 10 rotation is beyond me.

Boston at #5 is too high. Last season the only two reliable starters they had were Buchholz and Lester. Beckett, Lackey, and Matsuzaka have a lot to prove before the Sox can even be considered top 10, much less #5.

The Reds absolutely should be top 10, in place of the Tigers for sure.

I'm thinking something more along the lines of:

1) Philly
2) San Fran
3) Milwaukee
4) Oakland
5) Los Angeles
6) St. Louis
7) Atlanta
8) Tampa Bay
9) Cincinnati
10) Boston/Chicago

Milwaukee at 3. They potentially have one of the best 1-2s in the NL in Gallardo and Greinke, and solid veterans in Marcum and Wolf in the 3 and 4 spots. Their #5 could be one of many different options, but the 1-4 alone makes them worthy of a top 5 spot.

Oakland was a solid choice for #3, but, even as well as they pitched, that's a really young, inexperienced rotation. They had a great 2010, and deserve the #3 ranking, probably, but I feel like they have to prove it consistently first.

I felt like the Dodgers were significantly underrated at #10. Kershaw was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, while Billingsley continued to progress, and then they of course have the reliable veterans in Lilly, Kuroda, and Garland, and should they need him, Padilla, who turned in a solid year with the Dodgers last year.

I have a hard time putting St. Louis any lower than #6. Last time I checked they still have two legitimate Cy Young candidates at the front of the rotation, a breakout star in Garcia, a solid veteran that will continue to thrive in the NL in Westbrook, and whoever they plug in at #5.

Atlanta at 7. They have no true stand out guys that make you go wow, they should win a Cy Young, but assuming Jurrjens can bounce back from his injury problems last year, they have a really deep rotation.

Tampa at 8. Felt like they were much too high at #4. While no one's doubting they have several talented youngsters, their only true proven commodities are David Price and Matt Garza. James Shields, too, maybe, but his numbers have been consistently going in the wrong direction as of late. There's no denying that Davis, Hellickson, et al make this a top 5 potential staff, but not yet.

Cinci at 9. Not sure what he was thinking by omitting them completely from the list while including a team like Detroit. One of the best young rotations in baseball, and one of the deepest as well.

Boston at 10. This could easily just as well be the White Sox. Both teams have pitchers that need to rebound (Beckett and Lackey, Buehrle and Peavy) to make them top 10 worthy, but they both definitely are up there.

 

[NAHSTE]

Agreed with your assessment of Atlanta, but Hudson was pitching at that true ace level until fatigue set in. Pitching through his first full season in two years seemed to really tax him, but he was back to his Oakland level of dominance until September. No idea if he'll come back as strong this year, but we at least have four reliable guys who we know can give us a B+ performance whenever needed.

And yeah, your top 10 is slightly less lolwut. Like I said, just trying to generate discussion and who doesn't love a top 10 thread on VSN?

 

[Fappin Raptor]

Yea, I was not expecting to see Detroit on here.

 

[Lanteri]

Agreed with your assessment of Atlanta, but Hudson was pitching at that true ace level until fatigue set in. Pitching through his first full season in two years seemed to really tax him, but he was back to his Oakland level of dominance until September. No idea if he'll come back as strong this year, but we at least have four reliable guys who we know can give us a B+ performance whenever needed.

And yeah, your top 10 is slightly less lolwut. Like I said, just trying to generate discussion and who doesn't love a top 10 thread on VSN?

Obviously wasn't directing anything towards you. I think we all know how much of an idiot Buster Olney is so.

And yeah, Hudson definitely had an ace-type year, but not one that I think would warrant him serious consideration for the Cy Young, through no fault of his own. At this point in his career it would be tough for him to get any serious consideration, simply because of the type of pitcher he is.

 

[G-men]

WHERE ARE THE YANKEES?!?!?!?!?! WE JUST GOT CLIFF LEE WE SHOULD BE GREAT!!!!

oh yeah... :facepalm:

 

[EmpireWF]

Shit, the Mets don't even sniff the top 20 :bawling:

 

[FedEx227]

I don't have really any problems with the list outside of the Tigers.

#7 is awful for the Tigers, no way.

Oakland is tough to say, as Lant said the majority of them are REALLY young, good, but still very, very young. Talent wise I think they are #3 and they performed real well the past 2 years, I'm just not sure if I can put them in the top 5 at this point.

 

[BigHouseUSA]

If the Tigers really have the seventh best rotation and the their lineup proves as solid as they can be then we're making the playoffs.

I'm confident in Porcello, giving us a really nice one-two, but Scherzer is erratic and no one knows what can happen at four and five. Fortunately we do have a lot of options there, just not very good ones.

 

[Youk]

A Mets rotation of Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese, Carrasco, and Gee isn't top 10?

:smug:

 

[SuperKevin]

Nationals?