If any general manager is feeling the hot seat, it's Cubs GM Jim Hendry. Hendry's tenure in Chicago hasn't been without success, with the team making two consecutive postseasons (2007-08) for the first time in the divisional era and putting together three straight winning seasons, something the team hadn't done since Leo Durocher managed in the early 70s.
The Cubs finished their 97-win 2008 season by getting swept out of the divisional series for the second straight year and since then, the team's defied expectations -- in the wrong direction -- every season, and is now fighting with the Astros for 5th place in the National League Central.
Whether the team's run this winter by Hendry or his successor, there's a lot of money coming off the books that should provide at least a chance to right a team with enough core talent to compete in a weak division. Aramis Ramirez's contract ends at the end of the year, with absolutely no chance of having his $16 million team option picked up, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano and their combined $30 million yearly salary ends after next year, and Carlos Pena's non-comeback year comes under a one-year contract.
The unanswered question is just how freely the Ricketts family will open their wallets in coming seasons. The party line, recently quoted by Hendry, is that the team has all the money they need to invest back into the club. It's hard to gauge the truth of that, considering that the Ricketts don't have as much capital as a lot of other ownership groups and the Cubs are already one of the franchises not in line with MLB's debt limits. Commish Bud can't come right out and order the Cubs not to sign free agents, but there's a lot of subtle pressure on teams to not repeat the embarrassment caused by the McCourts, who are struggling to make payroll as owners of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The one contract that the Cubs won't get out of soon is that of Alfonso Soriano. Signed to an 8-year, $136 million after the 2006 season, the Cubs have yet to get a single season matching Soriano's lone year in Washington, when he post a .911 OPS with 46 homers and 41 stolen bases. Soriano, who's now 35 years old, is not the fastball hitter he used to be and while he's still hitting for decent power (.525 slugging), his on-base percentage sits at .297.
As of today, Soriano has around $65 million remaining on his contract, consisting of three more seasons of $18 million per, and just under $11 million left for this season. To see just how much this costs the Cubs, I used the ZiPS projection system to project Soriano for the rest of his contract. From now until his contract ends in 2014, Soriano only projects at 3.2 wins above replacement, a rather poor return on $65 million.
To estimate just how poor a return, I turned Soriano's yearly WAR into an estimated dollar amount. Right now, adding a win on the free agent market costs roughly $4.5 million a year and I assumed a conservative 5 percent growth (it's historically been in the 6-10 percent range). Now, there will obviously be some variance as some teams are in specific positions where it makes sense to overpay, but generally speaking, if you're paying more than $4.5 million per win over replacement, you're not getting much of a deal. For Soriano, those 3.2 wins only come in as being worth about $15 million, leaving the Cubs holding the short end of the stick to the tune of $50 million. In layman's terms, the Cubs could give Soriano away for free, throw in $30 million, and get the better end of that particular trade.
How does Soriano track compared to other big contracts? I repeated the process for the other big contracts in baseball to find the 10 players with contracts that makes them the least valuable to their teams from a financial standpoint. Soriano finished 4th here, behind Ryan Howard, who may not even be worth his contract in the first year of his extension (which doesn't even start until next year), A-Rod, and Vernon Wells. The Yankees are always a special case, so A-Rod won't cripple the team and the wisdom shortage in the Angels acquisition of Vernon Wells has already been talked about at length. The top pitcher on the contract list is Johan Santana, still owed a minimum of $69 million by the Mets and whose return to ace status is uncertain right now because of his shoulder injury.
The good news is that there's no structural reason for the Cubs to not be able to get back to where they were a few years ago. Even if the team doesn't spend aggressively, they're still the largest-market team in the NL Central. Starlin Castro should start for the Cubs at short for a decade, centerfielder Brett Jackson and starter Trey McNutt are terrific prospects, and they have a fanbase that's extremely loyal, if prone to occasional self-immolation. Better times are ahead for these not-so-lovable losers as soon as some of these onerous contracts come off the books.
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider.
