UFC 128 Write up from Chutebox at CapWins.

[The X]

UFC 128 Winners
Everyone knows the hype surrounding Jon "Bones" Jones. Don't really think we need to go into that. He's strong, he's explosive, he has above average striking, solid wrestling, and decent submissions. He's in a whole different league here though, and is taking a major step up in competition going against Shogun.

This isn't Ryan Bader we're talking about, Vladmir Matyushenko or Brandon Vera. This is someone who won two fights against Lyoto Machida (yes, he won that first fight, if you remember correctly, no matter what the cards say), Chuck Liddell, Mark Coleman, Alistair Overeem twice, Ricardo Arona, Rogerio Nogueira, Quinton Jackson, and many more. Ex Pride Middleweight GP champion, and YOUR UFC LHW Champ. This is a highly skilled striker, and one of the best kickboxers at LHW that MMA has ever seen.

Is Jones a more aggressive wrestler than Rampage in his prime? I doubt that. Is Bones a more technical wrestler than Colemand and Randleman? Absolutely not. Is he a better striker than Antonio Rogerio Nogueira or Alistair Overeem? No way at 23 years old is he better than a Pan Am Boxing medalist or the #1 P4P fighter inthe world. I don't buy that hype. The reach? Now that I can see as an actual problem, but as long as Shogun fights his fight, cuts off the ring, and fights "his fight", he can easily win this thing. Ask Wanderlei...



Now lets talk about the odds...I've had an issue with these since they came out. He was a -270 favorite against Ryan Bader, which I agreed with, an insane -600 against Matyushenko, and -235 against Vera. All of those are understandable. -200 against a champion on short notice? Win or lose, I think taking Jon Jones at these odds are insane. It looks so fucked up at first glance, that you almost want to overthink this and take the kid as a favorite. Yes, Shogun is coming off of injury and ring rust is a possibility too, but he was still preparing for a fight (a much harder fight, IMO) against Rashad Evans since November. He is 100% and ready for this fight.

Don't underestimate the sprawl.

Maurico Rua (+168) risking 2 Units

This is another fight I love. Ricardo Almeida, who is not a big household name, is a better fighter and martial artist than he gets credit for. He was intrical in the careers of not only Renzo Gracie, but Frankie Edgar. He's fighting in his home state, which gives him a little bit of an advantage, IMO, considering he does very well when he fights there.

Pyle, while I'm a big Mike Dolce fan, with his help has cut from 195lbs down to 171 in a day in order to make weight. A regular cut shouldn't mean much to an experienced fighter, but 24lbs heavier the night before weigh-in's is insane.

Ricardo has showed improved striking in his last few fights, and is by far the better fighter should this go to the ground.

Ricardo Almeida (-170) for 2 Units

Other +EV Selections...

Jim Miller (-245) for 1 Unit
Kurt Pellegrino (+140) risking 1 Unit
Dan Miller (+270) risking 1 Unit
Joey Benavidez (-350) for 1 Unit
Eric Koch (-143) for 1 Unit

If anyone has any questions for me, try to get them in before 5:00, because I will be at the event. Will try to post some live updates and take pictures though.

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

Jim Miller and Alemida Parlay for big money tonite..

And of course, the moneys going on SHOGUN.

May throw Luiz Cane and Faber into the parlay aswell.

 

[EmpireWF]

The only time a champion like this was considered an underdog....Serra?

It's awkward and I imagine a lot of money can be had off Shogun if he wins. At the same time, I heard earlier in the week that despite the odds, the Vegas money was still going for Jones.

 

[KINGOFOOTBALL]

Only convincing fight Shoguns had was his last one. All his others were VERY unconvincing that he still has the skillset and abilities he showed in Pride. Lack of roids , stamina , knees whatever the excuse is theres nothing in his UFC time that makes him seem like hes on a tear or unstoppable.

Last time the 205 belt was defended in convincing fashion was almost 5 years ago. Every title holder has lost either his first or second title defense.There seems to be very little separating the top guys at LHW.

Bones has a huge hype train and the talent to back it up. Im not sure he can back it up against such an experienced guy but its insanely easy to see why Jones is the favorite. When you consider how easily he disposed of red hot Bader and others there should be no confusion.

Is Jones a more aggressive wrestler than Rampage in his prime? I doubt that. Is Bones a more technical wrestler than Colemand and Randleman? Absolutely not. Is he a better striker than Antonio Rogerio Nogueira or Alistair Overeem?

Jones is more well rounded and physically gifted than any of those other than Overeem who had never shown gas or a chin.


Am I the only one mindfucked by a Rampage that was an aggressive wrestler ?
Seems like eons ago.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

The smart money is on Shogun for sure. Just like when Cain was an underdog vs Brock. Jones is a public fighter, not saying he can't win, but only a fool would pass up Shogun in this spot at + odds.