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ThomasTomasz
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Everyone's favorite ex-GM, Jimmy B
On May 30, San Francisco Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum had what used to be a routine outing. His line: seven innings pitched, one earned run and six strikeouts.
For a guy who’s won two National League Cy Young Awards, been a four-time All-Star and recorded more than 1,200 strikeouts, that line sounds pretty standard. However, he also walked a season-high five batters. On the season, he’s walking 4.9 men per nine, well above his career average of 3.4.
It gets worse.
The Giants are 2-11 when Lincecum starts and have lost eight straight when he pitches. Conversely, the Giants are 34-17 when he doesn’t take the hill. Currently at 2-7 with a 6.00 ERA, one of the game’s most dominant pitchers over the past four years now ranks among the worst starting pitchers in baseball in terms of ERA, WHIP and losses.
Problem is, no one can figure it out. What is wrong with Lincecum?
Injured or healthy?
The Giants have one of the game’s best pitching coaches in Dave Righetti. He said he doesn’t see a mechanical problem. An examination of video footage of Lincecum’s mechanics backs up his assessment.
Lincecum says he’s healthy. The Giants’ trainers say he’s healthy. Manager Bruce Bochy says he’s healthy. Lincecum and the trainers should know, right? Bochy said Lincecum’s stuff is still there, so he certainly can’t be hurt.
However, I say they might be wrong. Why not give Lincecum a saline-enhanced MRI on his elbow and shoulder to make sure there’s not an injury? He might not have pain, but he might have inflammation or a tear that is affecting his command and control in the zone. I can’t tell you how many pitchers during my career as a general manager said they were healthy and were even backed up by the trainers, but tests revealed they were really hurt.
I’ve seen pitchers throwing 95 mph with a nasty slider walk off the field and need Tommy John surgery with no palpable degradation of their pitches or velocity. I’ve seen pitchers throw ineffectively for months before finally giving in to an MRI and eventually have to be shut down because of injuries.
New York Yankees right-hander Phil Hughes suffered from a mysterious malady last year. Perhaps Lincecum is similar. Maybe he just has strength deficiencies in his shoulder? If they shut him down perhaps they could rebuild that strength and have Lincecum back for the pennant race? Maybe an MRI will show an injury that can be scoped or an exercise program that could help. Maybe his legs are not strong enough.
Phil HughesAP Photo/Brian BlancoHughes suffered through similar struggles and still is trying to find his 18-win form from 2010.
The Giants point to radar gun readings that indicate little difference from his 2012 velocities to 2010 or 2011. FanGraphs.com and scouts don’t completely agree, but the difference is relatively moderate, maybe a couple of miles per hour. But a couple of miles per hour can be significant, especially when you’re missing your spots.
The fact is, Giants brass is probably in denial, and who can blame them? Lincecum, 28, has been one of the game’s best pitchers since he burst onto the scene in 2007. However, when I talk to hitters who have faced Lincecum this year, they tell me he’s not the same. The majority point to his lack of consistent command in the strike zone. Truth be told, in most of his games his command has been good for several innings, but then for a couple of innings he’ll start missing over the middle of the plate.
I remember arguing with pitching coaches and trainers many times during my 25 years in baseball over whether a pitcher was hurt or not. Pitchers say they are healthy because they feel no pain. Trainers say the pitchers are healthy because they can’t find any signs of injury or loss of range of motion. However, what I learned was the least amount of inflammation in the shoulder or elbow can cause a slight change in release point, and thus a pitcher can lose his command. Although the velocity and break might not be affected, the command of the pitches can.
In my mind, Lincecum is hurt without pain or has some shoulder weakness that is causing him to miss his intended locations. Curiously, Lincecum said something to me back in March that threw up a red flag. He said he was going to scrap his slider because of the wear and tear on his arm. I didn’t understand what he meant by that. Why was his slider causing wear and tear but not his fastball? Did something hurt when he threw his slider? Well, he ended up keeping his slider anyway, but it made me wonder about his health nonetheless.
What to do with “Freak”?
Bochy told me earlier in the week that he and GM Brian Sabean have discussed every possible option regarding Lincecum. They’ve considered alternatives that include skipping a turn or moving him to the bullpen. Simply, how long can you keeping piling up the losses in his starts?
Skipping a start just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I’m not sure how missing one start would help him regain the command or build up arm strength. It’s too short of a period. However, moving him to the bullpen is something I think the Giants should at least consider, at least for the short term. They could put him in the sixth or seventh inning where he can just pound the strike zone with fastballs. He could possibly build back some velocity as well as give his elbow, shoulder and arm less stress.
Sometimes pitchers lose some fastball velocity because they throw their changeup too much. In this relief role he can just pound fastballs and breaking balls. But how long will it take for him to come out of it? A month? Six weeks? And what if that doesn’t work?
The Giants have the best record in baseball when Lincecum doesn’t start. They want to respect him and keep throwing him out there. To be sure, Lincecum deserves the utmost respect for his accomplishments, but the Giants also need to win games in what will be a close pennant race. They can’t be stuck in denial. That doesn’t look like a healthy Lincecum out there, and the Giants can’t afford to allow these losses in his starts to keep mounting.
