Will CC Sabathia win 300 games?

[Warner2BruceTD]

Smack dab in the middle of his age 32 season, exactly 200 wins: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01.shtml

The last of a dying breed, a true workhorse throwback who always goes deep into games because of his ability to throw up to 125-130 pitches in any given start. Showing some signs of wearing down, with a couple of DL stints the last two seasons after averaging around 240 IP the previous five. "Only" threw 200 innings last year, and on pace for a shade over 200 this season. His K's are down, and his ERA is league average. HIs K rate has bounced around a bit before, but you have to question if he can raise it back up again past age 33.

It sure looks like he can pitch reasonably well for five more years or so, which should at least get him into range to where he can pull a Randy Johnson and hang around as a bum until he gets it, unless you believe his weight will finally catch up with him leading to a sharp decline. Naturally large, he should probably watch his diet closer as he enters his mid 30's.

So, does he make it?

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

I'm going to say no.

250+ is in reach. 300 looks very far away.

 

[NAHSTE]

:no:

Probably a lock for the HOF though, he'll end up in the 240-260 range.

 

[Glenbino]

Nope. At least not if he's staying in New York.

 

[MvP]

I'll say no. I'm expecting a sharp decline the next few years.

 

[MVPete]

I think outside of his fastball not being as fast, the Yankees roster construction and Mariano Rivera not being there to close out his games will be other factors that hurt his chance. His career numbers are better later in the year, so it will be interesting if that holds true again this year with how few fastballs over 93 mph he's thrown.

http://www.baseballanalytics.org/ba...sabathias-diminishing-fastball-2008-2013.html

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I think outside of his fastball not being as fast, the Yankees roster construction and Mariano Rivera not being there to close out his games will be other factors that hurt his chance. His career numbers are better later in the year, so it will be interesting if that holds true again this year with how few fastballs over 93 mph he's thrown.

http://www.baseballanalytics.org/ba...sabathias-diminishing-fastball-2008-2013.html

You stole my thunder. I was saving this for later.

Anyway, good article. It's about 6 weeks old, here is where we are now:

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=404&position=P&pitch=FA

He is trending exactly the same as he always does, but as noted he started WAY below his usual velocity in April. Was that "just a thing", or what? Guess we'll find out next year.

Anyway, figure roughly 6-9 more wins this year, that puts him a shade under 210 entering age 33. I think if he gets to 270, 280 he'll stick around to get to 300. As well he should, i'm not one of these "HE SHOULD RETIRE!" people. Hey man, it's not my legacy, if guys want to hang around past their prime, that's their life, their career, their business.

He's signed for four more years. 12-15 wins per year puts him around 270. Certainly doable. A big year mixed in has him possibly pushing 280. At that point, even if he's bad, you know he's sticking around on one year deals until he gets there. He's not retiring on 270+ unless he's hurt.

I guess I like his chances better than the rest of you.

 

[Goober]

If I had to place money on it today, I would bet he gets to 300.

As for the low velocity in April this year, wasn't he hurt?

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

You stole my thunder. I was saving this for later.

Anyway, good article. It's about 6 weeks old, here is where we are now:

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=404&position=P&pitch=FA

He is trending exactly the same as he always does, but as noted he started WAY below his usual velocity in April. Was that "just a thing", or what? Guess we'll find out next year.

Anyway, figure roughly 6-9 more wins this year, that puts him a shade under 210 entering age 33. I think if he gets to 270, 280 he'll stick around to get to 300. As well he should, i'm not one of these "HE SHOULD RETIRE!" people. Hey man, it's not my legacy, if guys want to hang around past their prime, that's their life, their career, their business.

He's signed for four more years. 12-15 wins per year puts him around 270. Certainly doable. A big year mixed in has him possibly pushing 280. At that point, even if he's bad, you know he's sticking around on one year deals until he gets there. He's not retiring on 270+ unless he's hurt.

I guess I like his chances better than the rest of you.

He's got a chance at it, but he'll be playing until he's in his mid-40's to do it. He's already got a LOT of miles on that arm of his, too. By the end of next season, he'll be 34 (lets say, he's at 220 by the end of next season). That's still a long way to go. He's not freakish like Randy Johnson, not on the good stuff like Roger, and not finesse/control like Moyer/Wakefield and you gotta wonder if he can get to 300 while changing up his approach, because he'll need to once he really gets up there.. Its going to be tough, its possible, I would just bank on no...but he comes really close.

 

[NAHSTE]

He's got a chance at it, but he'll be playing until he's in his mid-40's to do it. He's already got a LOT of miles on that arm of his, too. By the end of next season, he'll be 34 (lets say, he's at 220 by the end of next season). That's still a long way to go. He's not freakish like Randy Johnson, not on the good stuff like Roger, and not finesse/control like Moyer/Wakefield and you gotta wonder if he can get to 300 while changing up his approach, because he'll need to once he really gets up there.. Its going to be tough, its possible, I would just bank on no...but he comes really close.

Plus, he's not exactly playing in a park that will allow a newer, more finesse like repertoire to play.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

He's got a chance at it, but he'll be playing until he's in his mid-40's to do it. He's already got a LOT of miles on that arm of his, too. By the end of next season, he'll be 34 (lets say, he's at 220 by the end of next season). That's still a long way to go. He's not freakish like Randy Johnson, not on the good stuff like Roger, and not finesse/control like Moyer/Wakefield and you gotta wonder if he can get to 300 while changing up his approach, because he'll need to once he really gets up there.. Its going to be tough, its possible, I would just bank on no...but he comes really close.

Mid 40's? He's only 32 today. He could potentially do it before he turns 40.

10 wins per year gives him 70 more wins before he even turns 40. Throw in a half dozen more this year, that's 276. And to me, 10 wins per year is a low estimate. If he has two more 14-16 win seasons after this one, that's about 286 even if we only give him 10 for the remaining five seasons (and 6 more for this season) before age 40.

I think he has a good chance. I'd put it at 50/50 right now. I don't see him breaking down, he's a horse. I think his stuff will break down before his body. So then it's a matter of if he wants to limp to a finish, which really anybody who gets to 300 these days has to do. Nobody cruises in while they're still good anymore.

 

[Slateman]

Would be very tough. 32-34 is right about when most men start to break down physically. He's thrown a lot of pitches and pitched a lot of games in his career. I just don't think he has that kind of longevity as a power pitcher.

 

[Glenbino]

I think while Sabathia may be ok, he's stuck on an old team with a shallow farm system that has no interest in paying the luxury tax until 2017.

The Yankees are going to be a mess basically through the end of his contract and I don't see 10-15 wins as a mortal lock every year no matter how well he pitches.

 

[dell71]

I'm worried about him breaking down big time because of all the weight he carries, and all those innings. Assuming he his body doesn't completely give out, 300 is still a very long way off. Even if he gets to say 275 in the next 5 or 6 years will he have enough gas left to get to 300? Will anyone want to still have him in their rotation at 37 or 38? That's very difficult to say. A lot of careers have died between 250 and 300 wins (23 to be exact) and I'd say most, if not all, really wanted to make it to 300 (except possibly Mike Mussina who (somewhat) inexplicably retired at 270 after a 20 win season with a 131 ERA+).

For a reference point, look at Jim Palmer. He had 215 wins by the end of his age 32 season and threw plenty of innings (over 3100 by that point). He won 21 games that year with a 2.46 ERA. He was up to 241 wins by the end of his age 34 season (up to around 3400 innings by this point). He would "only" end up with 268 wins for his career. I know it's not exactly apples to apples, but there are enough similarities to give us some historical context.

On the other hand, there are guys who had 30 or 40 less wins by the same age as CC and wound up with over 300 wins. Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson most recently fit the bill. However, those guys were still clearly among the very best handful of pitchers in the game at age 32. It's not immediately clear whether CC is declining or having a bad season (for him) because he's not 100% healthy). It's possible he gets to 300, but I'll say he comes up a bit shy. Hope I'm wrong, though.

 

[Sven Draconian]

It took him 5.5 years to win from 100 to 200 (conveniently, from 2008 until present).

That would have him pitching with similar effectiveness from ages 33 until he is 38 - either early 2019 or late 2018.

He is in decline. His HR rates are up, his innings are down, his ERA+ is down and his relative strikeout rate is down (his 7.7 is right at his career average, but when you factor in the overall increase in strikeouts across the league he is down relative to his previous levels). That also correlates to observations from watching him (namely, his fastball is down a little ect...)

CC is a sure-fire Hall of Famer and he'll probably decline relatively gracefully in terms of production. Obviously with that body and the workload a serious of major injuries that effectively end his career is a real possibility.

The smart money is obviously against him, but I'd say he has a decent shot. Maybe something like 33%.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Sabathia is a great pitcher, and is definitely going into the HOF. Everyone's posting numbers one way or the other, and I remember seeing him against the Orioles at Camden. He held the Orioles hitless through six innings, and then they finally broke through in the seventh and went off on him. He's not the horse he was before, and to even have a shot, he's going to have to be with a team that has a great offense and/or great bullpen to help him with it.

That being said, my answer is no. The weight has always been a concern for Sabathia long-term, and he hasn't made any strides to lower it. There are so many issues for him going forward at his weight, so my money is on no.

 

[NAHSTE]

5.12 ERA over the last calendar year, worst among qualified starters, and the velo has disappeared. #concerning

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Worst part is, he fixed his weight issue and that hasn't helped him so far this year.