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The MLB trade deadline is nine days away. Insider MLB content has looked at organizational structure and some of the biggest highway robberies of all time, but what deals make the most sense within this season? Here are five that fit too well not to happen.
1. The New York Yankees acquire LHP Ted Lilly from the Chicago Cubs for 2B prospect Corban Joseph
Skip Yankees GM Brian Cashman's brave talk about standing pat. This is a straightforward matter of patching up in Andy Pettitte's absence -- namely, avoiding Sergio Mitre as a rotation regular for the month or more until Pettitte comes back. Keep in mind, the Yankees are also trying to endure A.J. Burnett's latest inconsistent season; Burnett's .457 Support-Neutral Winning Percentage looks a lot like Mitre's career-high mark of .451 back in 2007. That just won't get it done in the AL East. Aside from Lilly's flagging velocity, a big problem for him this season has been location against left-handers. With the Yankees, he'd have the advantage of pitching with great run support in a ballpark that is turning out to be less of a launching pad than was initially expected. He has experience pitching in pennant races, and he wouldn't come in having to be a star -- he'd just deliver effective starts consistent with his .512 SNWP and let the offense grind opponents to dust.
Joseph was ranked by BP's Kevin Goldstein as the Yankees' 12th-best prospect entering the season, and the 21-year-old has an .836 OPS in the hitter-friendly Florida State League. He's not going to be a star, but he could be a solid regular. Besides, Lilly isn't worth a blue-chipper.
2. The Cincinnati Reds shore up their bullpen by trading SS Zack Cozart to the Houston Astros for RHP Matt Lindstrom, and acquire RHP Michael Wuertz from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for OF Chris Heisey and LHP Donnie Joseph
With a 4.73 bullpen-wide Fair Run Average that betrays how little they have going for them beyond Francisco Cordero and Arthur Rhodes, the Reds rate 12th in the National League in that category. That's the worst mark of any of the league's contenders. During Walt Jocketty's tenure with the St. Louis Cardinals, the current Cincinnati GM was a master at dealing middling prospects to acquire veterans -- but the Reds' need is immediate and dire. Getting Lindstrom shouldn't be all that expensive, but he's a hard-throwing veteran closer bound for free agency and the Astros should try to respond to the Reds' desires by getting themselves a shortstop. Cozart isn't a blue-chip stud, but he's playable and is hitting .262/.329/.446 for Triple-A Louisville (and a .254 True Average), with 23 steals and 14 homers at 25 years old; he would immediately fill Houston's need up the middle.
Trading for Wuertz is almost the opposite of renting Lindstrom because he'd be a long-term fix. Oakland's setup man was one of the game's best relievers last season, finishing 11th in WXRL without being a closer; after missing the first month of this season with shoulder trouble, he has settled back into slider-driven dominance. He's under contract through 2011 for $2.8 million with a $3.25 million club option, a relative bargain compared with what top relievers can command on the open market. The A's need an outfielder, and Heisey's a grinder whose value might never be higher after he popped five homers in his 10 weeks on the Reds' bench.
3. The St. Louis Cardinals acquire Ben Sheets and cash from the Athletics for 1B/OF Allen Craig and RHP P.J. Walters
The Cardinals don't really know what to expect from veterans Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny, and rookie Jaime Garcia is beginning to show signs of wear after spending much of 2009 shelved with his recovery from Tommy John surgery, so they need a starter. Why not call on pitching coach Dave Duncan's restorative powers with yet another veteran ace looking for a new lease on life? Sheets has been healthy enough, and although his results pitching in the AL have been a mixed bag (.465 SNWP), if the A's pay the expense of employing Sheets -- perhaps the reason they signed him in the first place, to escape the union's ire -- it's worth giving up a utility right-hander and an organizational bat such as Craig. For the A's, it's a matter of adding depth, Walters would stock Triple-A Sacramento or the back of the major league rotation, and Craig would add to Oakland's woeful outfield mix.
4. The Chicago White Sox acquire DH Luke Scott and 3B Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles for SS Eduardo Escobar and RHPs Lucas Harrell and Jhonny Nunez
Tied with Oakland for ninth place in the AL in team TAv, the Sox need to punch up their offense. Obvious spots that need help are third base and DH, with Mark Teahen shelved and healing slowly, and the platoon of Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay struggling to produce. Always open to a trade, Kenny Williams likes adding the occasional ex-famous person to the mix for his stretch runs -- Roberto Alomar, Carl Everett, Ken Griffey Jr. -- and Tejada would fit neatly within that pattern, providing the White Sox with a former MVP who might get a last lease on life at the plate while manning third base. Scott would be the more subtle addition, but his .304 TAv would provide a big dose of sock and balance. To swing the deal, Chicago would have to give the Orioles the shortstop prospect they need, and sure-handed Escobar has elicited comparisons to Omar Vizquel for his fielding. Harrell and Nunez are both live arms who could help in a big league bullpen, so this might seem like a lot, but Scott is under club control through 2012, providing the Sox with a lasting answer to their need for a lefty power bat.
5. The San Diego Padres acquire Adam Dunn from the Washington Nationals for Will Venable and Adam Russell
The one thing potentially holding the Padres back is their offense, which is tied with the Cubs for 12th in TAv in the NL. They're leading the majors in one-run wins, and the best way to avoid that coming back to bite them is to field an offense that provides wider margins to work with. So why not rent Dunn for a couple of months before he becomes a free agent? Walks and power work in every venue -- even Petco -- and as much as San Diego is being touted as a pitching and defense team and Dunn's now-infamous immobility in the outfield would seem to spoil that, the Padres' defense is greatly helped by the pitching staff's 21.3 percent strikeout rate. Balls that never enter play are the easiest to defend, and this is one glove the Pads should risk adding to give them a second pillar beyond Adrian Gonzalez to prop up their bid for an upset in the NL West.
Christina Kahrl is a writer for Baseball Prospectus; her ESPN.com archives are here.
1. The New York Yankees acquire LHP Ted Lilly from the Chicago Cubs for 2B prospect Corban Joseph
Skip Yankees GM Brian Cashman's brave talk about standing pat. This is a straightforward matter of patching up in Andy Pettitte's absence -- namely, avoiding Sergio Mitre as a rotation regular for the month or more until Pettitte comes back. Keep in mind, the Yankees are also trying to endure A.J. Burnett's latest inconsistent season; Burnett's .457 Support-Neutral Winning Percentage looks a lot like Mitre's career-high mark of .451 back in 2007. That just won't get it done in the AL East. Aside from Lilly's flagging velocity, a big problem for him this season has been location against left-handers. With the Yankees, he'd have the advantage of pitching with great run support in a ballpark that is turning out to be less of a launching pad than was initially expected. He has experience pitching in pennant races, and he wouldn't come in having to be a star -- he'd just deliver effective starts consistent with his .512 SNWP and let the offense grind opponents to dust.
Joseph was ranked by BP's Kevin Goldstein as the Yankees' 12th-best prospect entering the season, and the 21-year-old has an .836 OPS in the hitter-friendly Florida State League. He's not going to be a star, but he could be a solid regular. Besides, Lilly isn't worth a blue-chipper.
2. The Cincinnati Reds shore up their bullpen by trading SS Zack Cozart to the Houston Astros for RHP Matt Lindstrom, and acquire RHP Michael Wuertz from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for OF Chris Heisey and LHP Donnie Joseph
With a 4.73 bullpen-wide Fair Run Average that betrays how little they have going for them beyond Francisco Cordero and Arthur Rhodes, the Reds rate 12th in the National League in that category. That's the worst mark of any of the league's contenders. During Walt Jocketty's tenure with the St. Louis Cardinals, the current Cincinnati GM was a master at dealing middling prospects to acquire veterans -- but the Reds' need is immediate and dire. Getting Lindstrom shouldn't be all that expensive, but he's a hard-throwing veteran closer bound for free agency and the Astros should try to respond to the Reds' desires by getting themselves a shortstop. Cozart isn't a blue-chip stud, but he's playable and is hitting .262/.329/.446 for Triple-A Louisville (and a .254 True Average), with 23 steals and 14 homers at 25 years old; he would immediately fill Houston's need up the middle.
Trading for Wuertz is almost the opposite of renting Lindstrom because he'd be a long-term fix. Oakland's setup man was one of the game's best relievers last season, finishing 11th in WXRL without being a closer; after missing the first month of this season with shoulder trouble, he has settled back into slider-driven dominance. He's under contract through 2011 for $2.8 million with a $3.25 million club option, a relative bargain compared with what top relievers can command on the open market. The A's need an outfielder, and Heisey's a grinder whose value might never be higher after he popped five homers in his 10 weeks on the Reds' bench.
3. The St. Louis Cardinals acquire Ben Sheets and cash from the Athletics for 1B/OF Allen Craig and RHP P.J. Walters
The Cardinals don't really know what to expect from veterans Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny, and rookie Jaime Garcia is beginning to show signs of wear after spending much of 2009 shelved with his recovery from Tommy John surgery, so they need a starter. Why not call on pitching coach Dave Duncan's restorative powers with yet another veteran ace looking for a new lease on life? Sheets has been healthy enough, and although his results pitching in the AL have been a mixed bag (.465 SNWP), if the A's pay the expense of employing Sheets -- perhaps the reason they signed him in the first place, to escape the union's ire -- it's worth giving up a utility right-hander and an organizational bat such as Craig. For the A's, it's a matter of adding depth, Walters would stock Triple-A Sacramento or the back of the major league rotation, and Craig would add to Oakland's woeful outfield mix.
4. The Chicago White Sox acquire DH Luke Scott and 3B Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles for SS Eduardo Escobar and RHPs Lucas Harrell and Jhonny Nunez
Tied with Oakland for ninth place in the AL in team TAv, the Sox need to punch up their offense. Obvious spots that need help are third base and DH, with Mark Teahen shelved and healing slowly, and the platoon of Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay struggling to produce. Always open to a trade, Kenny Williams likes adding the occasional ex-famous person to the mix for his stretch runs -- Roberto Alomar, Carl Everett, Ken Griffey Jr. -- and Tejada would fit neatly within that pattern, providing the White Sox with a former MVP who might get a last lease on life at the plate while manning third base. Scott would be the more subtle addition, but his .304 TAv would provide a big dose of sock and balance. To swing the deal, Chicago would have to give the Orioles the shortstop prospect they need, and sure-handed Escobar has elicited comparisons to Omar Vizquel for his fielding. Harrell and Nunez are both live arms who could help in a big league bullpen, so this might seem like a lot, but Scott is under club control through 2012, providing the Sox with a lasting answer to their need for a lefty power bat.
5. The San Diego Padres acquire Adam Dunn from the Washington Nationals for Will Venable and Adam Russell
The one thing potentially holding the Padres back is their offense, which is tied with the Cubs for 12th in TAv in the NL. They're leading the majors in one-run wins, and the best way to avoid that coming back to bite them is to field an offense that provides wider margins to work with. So why not rent Dunn for a couple of months before he becomes a free agent? Walks and power work in every venue -- even Petco -- and as much as San Diego is being touted as a pitching and defense team and Dunn's now-infamous immobility in the outfield would seem to spoil that, the Padres' defense is greatly helped by the pitching staff's 21.3 percent strikeout rate. Balls that never enter play are the easiest to defend, and this is one glove the Pads should risk adding to give them a second pillar beyond Adrian Gonzalez to prop up their bid for an upset in the NL West.
Christina Kahrl is a writer for Baseball Prospectus; her ESPN.com archives are here.
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