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(Just trying to generate some discussion, I promise I'll stop copy and pasting insider Buster Olney columns once there's actually shit to talk about again.)
We're number 8! We're number 8!
We're number 8! We're number 8!
Here's one humble ranking of the Top 10 rotations in the majors (and I'm going to cheat and list 11). Keep in mind this reflects that a pair of guys who could at least alter this list -- Carl Pavano and Andy Pettitte -- remain uncommitted for 2011 as of this writing.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Combine the 2010 results for Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee, and this is what you get:
Games: 126
Innings: 883.1
Hits: 773
Earned runs: 279
Walks (and this is the most incredible number): 164
Strikeouts: 808
Earned run average: 2.84
Average innings per start: About 7
Those statistics are very, very special.
2. San Francisco Giants
The Giants posted the third-best ERA for any rotation in the majors, and then dominated in the postseason -- and here's something scary to think about: the Giants might actually be better in 2011. Tim Lincecum really seemed to learn from his adversity in August, working harder on his conditioning and adding a slider, and Madison Bumgarner showed his upside in the World Series. The concerns would be Jonathan Sanchez, who seemed to get very tired late last season, and Barry Zito, who posted a 4.70 ERA after the All-Star break.
3. Oakland Athletics
They very quietly posted the best starters' ERA in the majors last year, at 3.47, because of the incredible progression of Trevor Cahill and the excellence of Brett Anderson (when he wasn't dealing with injuries). Gio Gonzalez posted a 3.23 ERA in 33 starts, and Dallas Braden managed a 3.50 ERA in 30 starts. So long as Cahill and Anderson are healthy and productive, this will be a very tough group, with Brandon McCarthy or Rich Harden or somebody else working in the No. 5 spot.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Look, the Rays lost a bunch of guys in their everyday lineup and in their bullpen, and they may lose ground in the standings -- but their rotation should be excellent, with the developing Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and Jeremy Hellickson wrapped around David Price, Matt Garza and James Shields. Now, it would appear very possible that the Rays deal Garza before the July 31 trade deadline, and Shields is a key, coming off a season in which he really struggled in the second half; his ERA was a whopping 5.59, and he just seemed to have no idea how to fix what ailed him.
5. Boston Red Sox
John Lackey and Josh Beckett were major disappointments for the Red Sox last season. But Clay Buchholz climbed into the elite tier of starters in the majors -- and Jon Lester was already there. Boston needs bounce-back seasons from Lackey and Beckett, not only in 2011, but in the years that follow, because the Red Sox have invested big dollars in both.
6. Milwaukee Brewers
Yovani Gallardo is 24 years old, has the stuff to be a frontline starter and could benefit from playing for a contender, and Randy Wolf had a decent first season with the Brewers. And now you add Shaun Marcum, who was a good pitcher in the AL East and should be able to take advantage of the NL lineups, and Zack Greinke, who might have as much pure talent as any pitcher in the majors not named Felix Hernandez. It could be a special group.
7. Detroit Tigers
Justin Verlander is one of the best and is in his prime, going 18-9 with a 3.37 ERA and 219 strikeouts in 224.1 innings last year, and Max Scherzer seemed to grow last year. In the same way, Rick Porcello overcame a horrendous start to pitch better down the stretch after he learned something about diagnosing his own mechanics pitch to pitch and inning to inning; Porcello, who turns 22 in a few days, lowered his ERA from 6.14 at the All-Star break to 4.00 in the second half. Phil Coke is expected to man one of the spots at the back end of the rotation.
8a. Atlanta Braves
Tim Hudson was a Cy Young candidate until a September fade, Derek Lowe was one of the majors' best pitchers down the stretch, Tommy Hanson was much better than his 10-11 win-loss record would indicate and the Braves would have reasonable hope that Jair Jurrjens -- crushed by injuries in 2010 -- will be better next summer.
8b. St. Louis Cardinals
Jaime Garcia was the front-runner for the NL Rookie of the Year for a lot of the season, and he will slot in third or fourth in this rotation, behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter and perhaps ahead of Jake Westbrook. The key to this group is Carpenter, who faded down the stretch. If this was just a blip, rather than an indicator of things to come for Carpenter, who turns 36 in April, then St. Louis will have one of the best rotations in the majors.
10a. Los Angeles Dodgers
By the second half of last season, Clayton Kershaw achieved the kind of dominance projected for him when he was in the minors; Kershaw held opponents to a .179 average in September. The Dodgers have a good group behind Kershaw, with Ted Lilly (who had a 3.52 ERA in 12 starts for L.A. in 2010), the underrated Hiroki Kuroda, Chad Billingsley and Jon Garland.
10b. Chicago White Sox
They've got a nice core of John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson, but the simple fact is that they have no idea what to expect out of Jake Peavy, who went 7-6 with a 4.63 ERA. If Peavy bounces back, this could be an excellent rotation.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Combine the 2010 results for Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee, and this is what you get:
Games: 126
Innings: 883.1
Hits: 773
Earned runs: 279
Walks (and this is the most incredible number): 164
Strikeouts: 808
Earned run average: 2.84
Average innings per start: About 7
Those statistics are very, very special.
2. San Francisco Giants
The Giants posted the third-best ERA for any rotation in the majors, and then dominated in the postseason -- and here's something scary to think about: the Giants might actually be better in 2011. Tim Lincecum really seemed to learn from his adversity in August, working harder on his conditioning and adding a slider, and Madison Bumgarner showed his upside in the World Series. The concerns would be Jonathan Sanchez, who seemed to get very tired late last season, and Barry Zito, who posted a 4.70 ERA after the All-Star break.
3. Oakland Athletics
They very quietly posted the best starters' ERA in the majors last year, at 3.47, because of the incredible progression of Trevor Cahill and the excellence of Brett Anderson (when he wasn't dealing with injuries). Gio Gonzalez posted a 3.23 ERA in 33 starts, and Dallas Braden managed a 3.50 ERA in 30 starts. So long as Cahill and Anderson are healthy and productive, this will be a very tough group, with Brandon McCarthy or Rich Harden or somebody else working in the No. 5 spot.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Look, the Rays lost a bunch of guys in their everyday lineup and in their bullpen, and they may lose ground in the standings -- but their rotation should be excellent, with the developing Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and Jeremy Hellickson wrapped around David Price, Matt Garza and James Shields. Now, it would appear very possible that the Rays deal Garza before the July 31 trade deadline, and Shields is a key, coming off a season in which he really struggled in the second half; his ERA was a whopping 5.59, and he just seemed to have no idea how to fix what ailed him.
5. Boston Red Sox
John Lackey and Josh Beckett were major disappointments for the Red Sox last season. But Clay Buchholz climbed into the elite tier of starters in the majors -- and Jon Lester was already there. Boston needs bounce-back seasons from Lackey and Beckett, not only in 2011, but in the years that follow, because the Red Sox have invested big dollars in both.
6. Milwaukee Brewers
Yovani Gallardo is 24 years old, has the stuff to be a frontline starter and could benefit from playing for a contender, and Randy Wolf had a decent first season with the Brewers. And now you add Shaun Marcum, who was a good pitcher in the AL East and should be able to take advantage of the NL lineups, and Zack Greinke, who might have as much pure talent as any pitcher in the majors not named Felix Hernandez. It could be a special group.
7. Detroit Tigers
Justin Verlander is one of the best and is in his prime, going 18-9 with a 3.37 ERA and 219 strikeouts in 224.1 innings last year, and Max Scherzer seemed to grow last year. In the same way, Rick Porcello overcame a horrendous start to pitch better down the stretch after he learned something about diagnosing his own mechanics pitch to pitch and inning to inning; Porcello, who turns 22 in a few days, lowered his ERA from 6.14 at the All-Star break to 4.00 in the second half. Phil Coke is expected to man one of the spots at the back end of the rotation.
8a. Atlanta Braves
Tim Hudson was a Cy Young candidate until a September fade, Derek Lowe was one of the majors' best pitchers down the stretch, Tommy Hanson was much better than his 10-11 win-loss record would indicate and the Braves would have reasonable hope that Jair Jurrjens -- crushed by injuries in 2010 -- will be better next summer.
8b. St. Louis Cardinals
Jaime Garcia was the front-runner for the NL Rookie of the Year for a lot of the season, and he will slot in third or fourth in this rotation, behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter and perhaps ahead of Jake Westbrook. The key to this group is Carpenter, who faded down the stretch. If this was just a blip, rather than an indicator of things to come for Carpenter, who turns 36 in April, then St. Louis will have one of the best rotations in the majors.
10a. Los Angeles Dodgers
By the second half of last season, Clayton Kershaw achieved the kind of dominance projected for him when he was in the minors; Kershaw held opponents to a .179 average in September. The Dodgers have a good group behind Kershaw, with Ted Lilly (who had a 3.52 ERA in 12 starts for L.A. in 2010), the underrated Hiroki Kuroda, Chad Billingsley and Jon Garland.
10b. Chicago White Sox
They've got a nice core of John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson, but the simple fact is that they have no idea what to expect out of Jake Peavy, who went 7-6 with a 4.63 ERA. If Peavy bounces back, this could be an excellent rotation.
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