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Kemp4President's 2011 AL Predictions
American League East
First Place – Boston Red Sox
First Place – Boston Red Sox
Everyone knows about the high-profile acquisitions the Red Sox made this offseason, namely those of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Say what you will about him, but Theo Epstein was magical for his organization this winter and with their new faces combined with the Yankees’ inability to address their starting pitching need, I’m starting to think that a return to Boston domination in the division is on the way. The offense is one of the greatest baseball has ever seen, and the rotation looks pretty rock-solid as well. If any one of Lackey, Beckett, Matsuzaka returns to form then that facet of the team will be absolutely scary as well. Any way you slice it, barring disaster the Red Sox have the division well in hand – and considering their strong farm, it’s hard to see them falling out of “elite” status within the next 15 years honestly.
Second Place – New York Yankees
Although I believe with one hundred percent certainty that the Rays are the better team as of now, there’s absolutely no doubting that Brian Cashman will pull off a trade (probably overpay) for a big name, top of the rotation starter which will address the Yankees’ biggest concern and catapult them ahead of Tampa. The pressure from the fans and the incalculable weight of Yankee tradition is going to force Cashman’s hand here. With that said about their rotation, the Yankees obviously still have one of the better lineups in baseball and Mo Rivera closing out games, so it isn’t all bad. There’s also always the possibility that A.J. Burnett remembers how to pitch the corners, but I don’t think anyone’s counting on that. Chris Carpenter is a possible candidate to go to the Yankees if things get too ugly in St. Louis and they decide a bit of a retooling is in order.
Third Place – Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays didn’t have the best offseason. It can hardly be considered another step forward for a franchise that has made enormous strides in the past several seasons, as they lost Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, two of the vital pieces in their recent emergence as a contender; with Crawford possibly being the greatest player in franchise history. However, the organization happens to be deep enough to soften that blow quite a bit. Also, the Rays quickly recovered from the body blow of losing two stars and made several quick, effective signings – those of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon. Those are two veterans right there who will provide immediate pop and fantastic OBP to a lineup which will certainly be predicated on speed and the ability to get on base. However, that’s what we call a band-aid. Both are atrocious in the field and I have no idea how long the offensive production will sustain for either of them this season. Also, and I can’t believe I haven’t mentioned this yet, the Rays lost Matt Garza who was undoubtedly their ace last season. They’ll definitely need Hellickson and Shields to step up if they want to compete for the Wild Card which is a wholly viable scenario as well.
Fourth Place - Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have come a long way this offseason, there’s no denying that, and I think they’ll be a formidable team with a high ceiling. But I can’t put them any higher than fourth in this division. Their pitching staff is too sketchy, and despite a strong offense it honestly doesn’t quite measure up with the Rays’, Yankees’, and Red Sox. I could see the Orioles pushing 2nd place possibly if they have some pleasant surprises in the rotation but I’m not too confident on that. This season is going to be huge for the Orioles though, because I can guarantee that the Orioles will play consistently sound baseball for the first time in more than a decade and will have an on-field product that will leave their fans smiling. It might be a season or two before we can really talk about them at or near the top of this division though. They’ve got to address their arms, simple as that.
Fifth Place – Toronto Blue Jays
Fifth Place isn’t really an accurate indicator of how good the Blue Jays are, and it’s also not an indicator of what a productive offseason they had. They somehow found a way to unload all of Vernon Wells’ contract on the Angels, and dealt Shaun Marcum for a pretty damn good package that included Brett Lawrie. Not bad. However, their rotation is now one of the weakest in baseball unless some of their young guys step up in a big way. Also, I’m someone that thinks Jose Bautista is going to regress badly. The Blue Jays are a very promising organization with competent ownership and I do think they’ll finish at or near .500 this season, but 2011 just is not going to be their year.
American League Central
First Place – Chicago White Sox
Love what the White Sox did this offseason. They were able to retain Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, and brought in a big time new face in Adam Dunn. Their lineup has pop from top to bottom, and their Buehrle-Danks-Floyd-Jackson-Humber rotation remains one of my favorites in baseball. With Bobby Jenks’ fat ass out of town, the best reliever in the division is going to have his time to shine closing out games. Matt Thornton’s going to open a lot of eyes this season. Simply put, the White Sox have no weakness top to bottom. They’ve got veteran leadership and come off to me as a team that’s built to have sustained success both in the regular and post seasons.
Second Place – Minnesota Twins
After a lot of years of winning the division and then being swiftly dispatched in the first round, the Twins finally fall back a little this season. I still think they finish with 85-87 wins, but their rotation really is not good enough to pull it off again this season. I really like their offense, I think it’ll be top 5 in baseball this season and I’m not going to count them out of the division at all, but if they do make it, it’ll be because of an in-season acquisition or an unexpected contributor stepping up. Honestly it would make sense; I could see the Twins as buyers for a big name pitcher after they’ve gotten ripped up in the ALDS so often this past decade. They’ve got to have a guy that can take over a game and possibly pitch twice or three times in a series…the front office convincing themselves to part with the young talent it’ll take to get it done will be the hard part however.
Third Place – Detroit Tigers
Not much about this team stands out. Verlander, Cabrera, and Martinez will do their thing as usual, but the Tigers really had a flat offseason. Their lineup is very average, as is their rotation after their top two (Unless Porcello regains form). The Tigers don’t have anything resembling a team that could make a run at the division title, much less into the postseason. This is a year where the Tigers are just outmatched in their division and there’s not really much they can do about it.
Fourth Place – Cleveland Indians
I absolutely loved the Indians teams from a few years ago with Sabathia, DeRosa, Blake, Betancourt…but those days are long over. This is not a team with no direction like the Pirates or anything though. The Indians have a lot of young talent on their major league roster, headlined by Fausto Carmona and Carlos Santana, but the real treasure of the future lies in their farm system which is ranked in the top 5 I believe by Baseball America. Their rotation looks horrible right now but hopefully within the next couple years they shore it up somewhat. With guys like Lonnie Chisenhall on the horizon the Indians should have a pretty exciting team within the next 3-5 years. It remains to be seen whether Grady Sizemore will be the face of the franchise past 2011 but whether he is or not, I’m sure they’ll be able to get pretty strong value for him if he needs to be dealt. Cleveland is a team with hope, albeit zero for the upcoming season.
Fifth Place – Kansas City Royals
This was the easiest choice in the entire thing. The Royals are an insanely bad team, like almost hilarious to me. When Jeff Francis is your ace you know you have a problem. This isn’t 2007. I like the Grienke trade for them in terms of the value they got, but the problem is that the fans won’t be seeing the dividends of that deal for 3-5 years. It’s going to be a seriously depressing season in Kansas City, and I’m honestly going to be surprised if they win 50 games. Billy Butler and Joakim Soria are the only bright spots on the squad right now, but their farm is #1 in baseball easily and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Royals made a Rays-like turnaround in 2014 or 2015. Until then… make sure your valium stash is kept fresh, Royals fans.
American League West
First Place – Oakland Athletics
As many of you know, since I’ve been shouting this at anyone who’ll listen for quite some time, the A’s are my preseason sexy pick to win their division. I absolutely love their rotation. Trevor Cahill was so fucking great last year it’s hard for me to even describe it, and Brett Anderson also has ace potential. Braden and Gonzalez are good to a lesser extent but are guys that will always keep the A’s in the game and with their offense, they’re going to win a lot of close ones. But enough about the pitching, the offense was the obvious question mark heading into the offseason and Billy Beane definitely addressed it. Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui are nothing incredible but they both fit nicely into the middle of the order and will bring some pop to a lineup that had a serious shortage of it last season. Daric Barton is already an extremely polished hitter who doesn’t get enough credit, so their lineup is honestly looking pretty strong as well. The A’s are a well – balanced team with great pitching and defense and a good enough lineup to win them 90 games in my opinion. Pretty confident about this one.
Second Place – Texas Rangers
Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the Rangers take their division, but their pitching is just too concerning to me. I’m not confident at all in CJ Wilson’s ability to take the reigns and be the ace they need him to be, and the 4 guys behind him aren’t truly proven yet. Maybe things will work out, I’ll be happy for the Rangers if they do, but I really think they should’ve made sure Cliff Lee stayed in town. The addition of Beltre was nice though, but it remains to be seen whether or not he’ll fall off after getting a big contract like he did in Seattle.
Third Place – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Angels aren’t a bad team at all and I definitely think they’ll be over .500 this season. The top three in this division is one of the strongest. However, their lineup sets them back quite a ways. Morales is a scary bat and Wells could be a nice addition, but the rest is shaky to say the least. That said, Jered Weaver and Dan Haren is a great 1-2 punch if Haren can pitch to his ability. The Angels do have a lot of promising talent and I doubt they’ll fall out of contention before their top prospects hit the big show. They’ve got a strong foundation but not a team with enough offense to compete for this division title.
Fourth Place – Seattle Mariners
The story remains the same as it has been the past four or so years. No offense in Seattle. It’s honestly looking about as pathetic as ever this year, I believe Jack Cust will be hitting 4th? It’s honestly boggling to imagine how a team that had Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee in one rotation was so bad that one of them had to be traded, but that was the case, and still their offense is horrendous. Smoak has promise but they’ve got to be more aggressive in upcoming Free Agencies if they want to deal with this issue that’s plagued them so consistently for so long.
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