How Many Games Would This Team Win?

[Warner2BruceTD]

Is this team in the AL? I would move Hart to 1B, and make Butler the DH. Starting outfield would be Gomes/Dickerson/Hairston.

Chapman to the rotation is good, I'd send Arroyo to the pen for long relief. The rest of the bullpen has no set role. I would base everything by matchups.

I should have specified. Its an NL team, otherwise I would have constructed the bench a bit differently.

To me, the batting order is the challenge. Patterson is the bait, I want someone to lead him off so I can make fun of them. Is Dusty Baker registered here?

[Warner2BruceTD]

Also, Patterson has been pretty unlucky this year. His line drive rate is really high but it isn't showing in his BABIP, he's just hitting those liners right at people. He still sucks though, just not as bad as his slash line suggests.

Corey Patterson has an entire career's worth of stats that suggest he is hardly unlucky. Fuck your BABIP!

[Goober]

My NL lineup would be:
Corey Hart
JJ Hardy
Billy Butler
Ty Wigginton
Chris Dickerson
Kurt Suzuki
Jonny Gomes
Mark Ellis
Pitcher

[Goober]

A team containing only replacement level players would hypothetically win ~45 games, so as a fun exercise, lets estimate the teams win total using only the players fWAR from the 2010 season.

C K.Suzuki=1.8
1B B.Butler=2.8
2B M.Ellis=3.4
3B T.Wiggington=0.1
SS JJ Hardy=2.5
RF C.Hart=3.7
CF C.Patterson=1.0
LF J.Gomes=-0.1
Total=15.2

C E.Whiteside=0.7
IF J.Herrera=0.6
OF C.Dickerson=-0.1
UTIL M.Cairo=0.9
UTIL J.Hairston=1.8
Total=3.9

P R.Dempster=3.5
P T.Lilly=2.3
P B.Arroyo=1.7
P C.Capuano=0.5
P D.Fister=2.9
Total=10.9

P A.Chapman=0.7
P M.Adams=1.7
P J.Venters=1.7
P C.Kimbrel=0.5
P H.Bell=2.5
P M.Rivera=1.7
P J.Walden=0.4
Total=9.2

Total=39.2+45=84.2 Wins.

This estimate is artificially low, because a lot of these players didn't spend a full season in the major leagues (Hardy, Capuano, Kimbrel, etc.). So their value is lower then it would be over an entire season. However a replacement player due to injury (as in Hardy's case) would like have negative, or close to zero value. Still I think it's safe to add another 3-6 wins to the estimate making this an 85-90 win team.

Enjoy Warner!

Edit: A team such as this one, with a great bullpen is likely to get lucky and win a lot of close games (see 2010 Padres) and win more games then expected.

[MvP]

Take what the Cincinnati Reds' final regular season W-L record will be and switch the numbers.

[EmpireWF]

I'd trade 2 of the bullpen arms for a starter and an everyday prospect.

[Warner2BruceTD]

NO TRADES YOU FUCKING CHEATER

[Youk]

Is this team in the AL? I would move Hart to 1B, and make Butler the DH. Starting outfield would be Gomes/Dickerson/Hairston.

Chapman to the rotation is good, I'd send Arroyo to the pen for long relief. The rest of the bullpen has no set role. I would base everything by matchups.

I think I would rather throw Capuano in the bullpen, but even now I'm thinking that is a stretch. It's really you would rather throw less innings. With such a strong bullpen, adding one bad apple to it won't hurt. It'd hurt more in the rotation.

[Goober]

I think I would rather throw Capuano in the bullpen, but even now I'm thinking that is a stretch. It's really you would rather throw less innings. With such a strong bullpen, adding one bad apple to it won't hurt. It'd hurt more in the rotation.

Chris Capuano is the fucking man, Arroyo sucks.

2011 stats:
Chris Capuano: 7.41 K/9, 4.05 FIP
Bronson Arroyo: 5.09 K/9, 5.63 FIP

[Youk]

Chris Capuano is the fucking man, Arroyo sucks.

2011 stats:
Chris Capuano: 7.41 K/9, 4.05 FIP
Bronson Arroyo: 5.09 K/9, 5.63 FIP

I looked at the stats. That's what puts me on the edge. I'd much rather hope that this season is not turning into a typical one for Arroyo.

In reality if I was a manager this season, Arroyo would be stuck in the bullpen in a second. In the past, Capuano has had seasons like Arroyo is having in 2011, and Arroyo has had better seasons. Really depends on how we look at this, based off the most recent season, or an entire career.

[Guest]

Its probably a .500 team, especially in the National League. The bullpen is going to help this team win some close games as well. I would expect anywhere from 78-88 wins, erring on the higher side.

SS JJ Hardy
CF J Hairston
1B B Butler
RF C Hart
3B T Wigginton
LF J Gomes
C K Suzuki
2B M Cairo

C E.Whiteside
IF J.Herrera
OF C.Dickerson
OF C Patterson
2B M Ellos

P A.Chapman
P R.Dempster
P T.Lilly
P C.Capuano
P D.Fister

P B.Arroyo
P M.Adams
P J.Venters
P H.Bell
P M.Rivers
P J.Walden

Closer: C Kimbrel

The lineup is missing a leadoff hitter, and JJ Hardy was my ideal #2 hitter before moving him to leadoff. I then wanted to put Wigginton there, but had to go with Hairston as Wigginton needed to be down in the lineup.

Butler and Hart are solid for the middle of the lineup, but they are missing a cleanup hitter- Hart would be much better in the fifth spot (thereby moving everyone else down a spot in the order.)

I had to get Patterson and Ellis out of the lineup. I realize I have both utility players in the starting lineup, but they were better offensive players. As an Oriole fan, I especially despise everything about Patterson.

As for the pitching, I might take some flak from everyone, but Mariano Rivera is not the closer. Kimbrel has been a dominate pitcher on the mound, and has better numbers than both Rivera and Bell. I also noticed that Rivera's opponents BA has jumped up .50 points from last year.

What this bullpen really has going for it is that there are studs throughout. The only defined roles are Kimbrel as closer and Arroyo in long relief. Everyone else can step in and get outs when its needed, even in the sixth and seventh innings. Heck, I might not even have a closer with this team if I were the manager (though I do value the closer role, I don't like how many teams keep their best pitchers as set up men for late innings when they could be needed to preserve a lead earlier.)

The rotation lacked an ace, and I know someone did this earlier, but I moved Chapman into the rotation and think he could be the ace. Obviously we have not seen Chapman start, but I would roll the dice. Otherwise, the rotation has solid depth to it.

[Goober]

Corey Hart hates playing in the middle of the order at the five spot. Because Hart's a whiny bitch Roenicke moved him to leadoff, which has had mixed results.

[nwfisch]

84 with Chapman as starter
69 w/o Chapman

[Warner2BruceTD]

I think I would rather throw Capuano in the bullpen, but even now I'm thinking that is a stretch. It's really you would rather throw less innings. With such a strong bullpen, adding one bad apple to it won't hurt. It'd hurt more in the rotation.

Chris Capuano is the fucking man, Arroyo sucks.

2011 stats:
Chris Capuano: 7.41 K/9, 4.05 FIP
Bronson Arroyo: 5.09 K/9, 5.63 FIP

I looked at the stats. That's what puts me on the edge. I'd much rather hope that this season is not turning into a typical one for Arroyo.

In reality if I was a manager this season, Arroyo would be stuck in the bullpen in a second. In the past, Capuano has had seasons like Arroyo is having in 2011, and Arroyo has had better seasons. Really depends on how we look at this, based off the most recent season, or an entire career.

Arroyo is having a really bad year, but has had a much better career than Capuano.

Ted Lilly is the guy i'd send to the bullpen, fwiw.