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The Mets opening day payroll in April 2011 was over $140 million. GM Sandy Alderson has publicly said to expect the 2012 payroll to be in the $100-$110 million ballpark.
Right now, here's how the salary structure stands entering next year…
STARTERS
1. LHP Johan Santana - Missed all of 2011 after shoulder surgery. Expected to be good to go next season. Will make $24 million (not including potential incentives) and is under contract for two additional years.
2. RHP Mike Pelfrey - Very average year. Is eligible for arbitration again so chances are he will make over $6 million. Under team control through 2013.
3. RHP R.A. Dickey - Had a good year. Will make $4.25 million and is under contract through 2013.
4. LHP Jon Niese - Decent year. Under team control for about 4 more years. Will still make under $1 million.
5. LHP Chris Capuano - Turned out to be a great signing. FREE AGENT. Figures to be a hot commodity on the open market. If he's interested in staying, could be out of the pen or rotation.
6. RHP Dillon Gee - Under team control for about 5 more years.
7. RHP Chris Young - Started great but injury cost him the season. FREE AGENT.
----Don't expect any massive overhauls of the rotation. The only issue could be if they deal Mike Pelfrey but I would consider that a longshot. It would be swell if they could get another ace or a legit #2 starter, but supply is low and the Mets don't figure to have enough money to compete with the big spenders this winter. Plus, I don't see them willing to deal the farm for anything right now. My guess is Santana, Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese and Gee make up the starting rotation to kick of 2012.-----
BULLPEN
-RHP Ryota Igarashi -- FREE AGENT
-RHP D.J. Carrasco -- $1.2 Million entering his walk year
-LHP Tim Byrdak -- $1 Million entering his walk year
-RHP Miguel Batista -- FREE AGENT
-RHP Jason Isranghausen -- FREE AGENT
-RHP Taylor Buchholz -- Arbitration eligible
-RHP Bobby Parnell -- Arbitration eligible
-RHP Manny Acosta -- Arbitration eligible
-RHP Pedro Beato -- Under team control for 4 more years…no longer rule 5 status (picked from BAL in 2011)
-------Rough. No legit closer on the team so expect them to go elsewhere. Worst case scenario, they don't make a move and try Parnell again or closer by committeeitte with Beato. The pen needs work.----------
LINE-UP
-OF Jason Bay -- $16 million (with at least $19 million coming to him in 2013 & 2014)…my goodness what a bomb this signing turned out to be.
-3B David Wright -- $15 million (he has a $16M team option/$1M buyout in 2013)…..will be tons of talk about the Mets listening to offers throughout next season
-SS Jose Reyes -- FREE AGENT
-OF Angel Pagan -- Arbitration eligible (Horrible year, I hope they go elsewhere for a CF)
-C Ronny Paulino -- Arbitration eligible (I'd guess he's 50/50 to return)
-OF Scott Hairston -- FREE AGENT
-OF Willie Harris -- FREE AGENT
-1B Ike Davis -- under team control for at least 4 more years (missed most of 2011 with ankle injury. Avoided surgery, figures to be ready for spring straining…I hope)
-UTI Dan Murphy -- under team control through 2015 (had a good year with the bat, ended with an injury. His problem = no definitive position. Poor defense but he has a great bat)
-C Josh Thole -- under team control for long time (do they have faith in him to be every day catcher…I don't know)
-OF Lucas Duda -- under team control….
-C Mike Nickeas -- under team control….(word is they'd like to get him up because he calls a great game)
-IF Ruben Tejada -- under team control (figures to become starting SS if Reyes signs elsewhere)
-IF Justin Turner -- under team control (probably a bench player)
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Commitments at this point…
-Santana $24M
-Bay $18M
-Wright $15M
-Dickey $4M
-Carrasco $1M
-Byrdak $1M
-Pelfrey $5M
= just under $70 million is already spoken for. Add $5 mil for raises and other arbitration increases.
If they are able to resign Reyes, add another $15M to that total, which means they'd have maybe $10-15 million to spend on a new center fielder, bullpen help/closer and perhaps a second baseman.
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Estimated Opening Day Line-up (With & W/O Reyes)
1. SS Jose Reyes
2. CF Cheap Veteran Free Agent (the market is beyond terrible)
3. 3B David Wright
4. 1B Ike Davis
5. LF Jason Bay
6. 2B Daniel Murphy
7. RF Lucas Duda
8. C Josh Thole
1. SS Ruben Tejada
2. CF Cheap Veteran Free Agent
3. 3B David Wright
4. 1B Ike Davis
5. LF Jason Bay
6. 2B Daniel Murphy
7. RF Lucas Duda
8. C Josh Thole
:shot: -- what a shitty line-up
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Prospects in Play
1. RHP Jenrry Mejia - Underwent Tommy John surgery after a few starts at AAA. Expected to be out of action until the middle of the 2012 season at best. If the arm holds up then, he will compete for a big league starting job in 2013.
2. CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis - If he were healthy, the starting CF job would likely be his for the taking. But he's not. He underwent shoulder surgery a couple months back which ended his season at AAA. He will be 25-years old next summer so his window may be closing. Plus, some believe he projects to a corner OF spot.
3. RHP Matt Harvey - The 2010 1st round pick did well in 12 starts at AA in his first pro season. Odds are he'll start 2012 there before earning a spot at AAA. Ultimately, he could be a September call-up. He should compete for a starting job in the bigs in 2013.
4. RHP Jeurys Familia - He will be 22-years old entering 2012 and he too, had some success at AA in his third season with the organization. Known for his blazing fastball, he's working on his off-speed stuff. Similar to Harvey, he should start next year at AA and work his way to AAA. Depending on how he develops, they may be more inclined to use him out of the bullpen initially, probably in 2013
5. SS Wilmer Flores - The 20-year old has been hyped for at least two years as the future stud SS for the Mets. He had a good enough 2011 at High A so his goal for 2012 will be to make it at Double-A. Barring an explosion somewhere along the line, if he progresses well enough, he could be on the big league radar by 2014.
6. RHP Zach Wheeler - The 21-year old made 22 starts combined in the SF and NY High-A minor league squads. The organization may not want to rush him straight up to Double-A to start 2012, so I'll assume the goal is for him to play his way there by the All-Star break. He could make it to the bigs deep into the 2013 season with 2014 being more likely.
Honorable Mentions: LHP Darin Gorski (24-year old had the best ERA in the organization out of Sinlge-A), OF Juan Lagares (22-year old tore through AA pitching in 38 games), RHP Colin McHugh (24-year old continued success in 2011, pitching well at AA despite not having electric stuff...is playing in the AFL right now), SS/2B Reese Havens (25-year old 2008 first round pick has not been able to stay healthy, but he hit well at Double-A in 2011), RHP Brad Holt (25-year old first round pick in 2008, has had subpar years the past two despite averaging almost 9 strikeouts per nine innings. Has made 33 starts at AA the past three years).
As you can see…help is not on the way anytime soon.
Didn't even mention 2011 first round pick OF Brandon Nimmo. He's a high school pick so figure if he can stay healthy and develop at all, he won't be at AA until 2013 at the earliest.
If even 4 of the prospects mentioned can someday become big league contributors, I'd be satisfied.
Right now, here's how the salary structure stands entering next year…
STARTERS
1. LHP Johan Santana - Missed all of 2011 after shoulder surgery. Expected to be good to go next season. Will make $24 million (not including potential incentives) and is under contract for two additional years.
2. RHP Mike Pelfrey - Very average year. Is eligible for arbitration again so chances are he will make over $6 million. Under team control through 2013.
3. RHP R.A. Dickey - Had a good year. Will make $4.25 million and is under contract through 2013.
4. LHP Jon Niese - Decent year. Under team control for about 4 more years. Will still make under $1 million.
5. LHP Chris Capuano - Turned out to be a great signing. FREE AGENT. Figures to be a hot commodity on the open market. If he's interested in staying, could be out of the pen or rotation.
6. RHP Dillon Gee - Under team control for about 5 more years.
7. RHP Chris Young - Started great but injury cost him the season. FREE AGENT.
----Don't expect any massive overhauls of the rotation. The only issue could be if they deal Mike Pelfrey but I would consider that a longshot. It would be swell if they could get another ace or a legit #2 starter, but supply is low and the Mets don't figure to have enough money to compete with the big spenders this winter. Plus, I don't see them willing to deal the farm for anything right now. My guess is Santana, Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese and Gee make up the starting rotation to kick of 2012.-----
BULLPEN
-RHP Ryota Igarashi -- FREE AGENT
-RHP D.J. Carrasco -- $1.2 Million entering his walk year
-LHP Tim Byrdak -- $1 Million entering his walk year
-RHP Miguel Batista -- FREE AGENT
-RHP Jason Isranghausen -- FREE AGENT
-RHP Taylor Buchholz -- Arbitration eligible
-RHP Bobby Parnell -- Arbitration eligible
-RHP Manny Acosta -- Arbitration eligible
-RHP Pedro Beato -- Under team control for 4 more years…no longer rule 5 status (picked from BAL in 2011)
-------Rough. No legit closer on the team so expect them to go elsewhere. Worst case scenario, they don't make a move and try Parnell again or closer by committeeitte with Beato. The pen needs work.----------
LINE-UP
-OF Jason Bay -- $16 million (with at least $19 million coming to him in 2013 & 2014)…my goodness what a bomb this signing turned out to be.
-3B David Wright -- $15 million (he has a $16M team option/$1M buyout in 2013)…..will be tons of talk about the Mets listening to offers throughout next season
-SS Jose Reyes -- FREE AGENT
-OF Angel Pagan -- Arbitration eligible (Horrible year, I hope they go elsewhere for a CF)
-C Ronny Paulino -- Arbitration eligible (I'd guess he's 50/50 to return)
-OF Scott Hairston -- FREE AGENT
-OF Willie Harris -- FREE AGENT
-1B Ike Davis -- under team control for at least 4 more years (missed most of 2011 with ankle injury. Avoided surgery, figures to be ready for spring straining…I hope)
-UTI Dan Murphy -- under team control through 2015 (had a good year with the bat, ended with an injury. His problem = no definitive position. Poor defense but he has a great bat)
-C Josh Thole -- under team control for long time (do they have faith in him to be every day catcher…I don't know)
-OF Lucas Duda -- under team control….
-C Mike Nickeas -- under team control….(word is they'd like to get him up because he calls a great game)
-IF Ruben Tejada -- under team control (figures to become starting SS if Reyes signs elsewhere)
-IF Justin Turner -- under team control (probably a bench player)
------
Commitments at this point…
-Santana $24M
-Bay $18M
-Wright $15M
-Dickey $4M
-Carrasco $1M
-Byrdak $1M
-Pelfrey $5M
= just under $70 million is already spoken for. Add $5 mil for raises and other arbitration increases.
If they are able to resign Reyes, add another $15M to that total, which means they'd have maybe $10-15 million to spend on a new center fielder, bullpen help/closer and perhaps a second baseman.
------
Estimated Opening Day Line-up (With & W/O Reyes)
1. SS Jose Reyes
2. CF Cheap Veteran Free Agent (the market is beyond terrible)
3. 3B David Wright
4. 1B Ike Davis
5. LF Jason Bay
6. 2B Daniel Murphy
7. RF Lucas Duda
8. C Josh Thole
1. SS Ruben Tejada
2. CF Cheap Veteran Free Agent
3. 3B David Wright
4. 1B Ike Davis
5. LF Jason Bay
6. 2B Daniel Murphy
7. RF Lucas Duda
8. C Josh Thole
:shot: -- what a shitty line-up
------
Prospects in Play
1. RHP Jenrry Mejia - Underwent Tommy John surgery after a few starts at AAA. Expected to be out of action until the middle of the 2012 season at best. If the arm holds up then, he will compete for a big league starting job in 2013.
2. CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis - If he were healthy, the starting CF job would likely be his for the taking. But he's not. He underwent shoulder surgery a couple months back which ended his season at AAA. He will be 25-years old next summer so his window may be closing. Plus, some believe he projects to a corner OF spot.
3. RHP Matt Harvey - The 2010 1st round pick did well in 12 starts at AA in his first pro season. Odds are he'll start 2012 there before earning a spot at AAA. Ultimately, he could be a September call-up. He should compete for a starting job in the bigs in 2013.
4. RHP Jeurys Familia - He will be 22-years old entering 2012 and he too, had some success at AA in his third season with the organization. Known for his blazing fastball, he's working on his off-speed stuff. Similar to Harvey, he should start next year at AA and work his way to AAA. Depending on how he develops, they may be more inclined to use him out of the bullpen initially, probably in 2013
5. SS Wilmer Flores - The 20-year old has been hyped for at least two years as the future stud SS for the Mets. He had a good enough 2011 at High A so his goal for 2012 will be to make it at Double-A. Barring an explosion somewhere along the line, if he progresses well enough, he could be on the big league radar by 2014.
6. RHP Zach Wheeler - The 21-year old made 22 starts combined in the SF and NY High-A minor league squads. The organization may not want to rush him straight up to Double-A to start 2012, so I'll assume the goal is for him to play his way there by the All-Star break. He could make it to the bigs deep into the 2013 season with 2014 being more likely.
Honorable Mentions: LHP Darin Gorski (24-year old had the best ERA in the organization out of Sinlge-A), OF Juan Lagares (22-year old tore through AA pitching in 38 games), RHP Colin McHugh (24-year old continued success in 2011, pitching well at AA despite not having electric stuff...is playing in the AFL right now), SS/2B Reese Havens (25-year old 2008 first round pick has not been able to stay healthy, but he hit well at Double-A in 2011), RHP Brad Holt (25-year old first round pick in 2008, has had subpar years the past two despite averaging almost 9 strikeouts per nine innings. Has made 33 starts at AA the past three years).
As you can see…help is not on the way anytime soon.
Didn't even mention 2011 first round pick OF Brandon Nimmo. He's a high school pick so figure if he can stay healthy and develop at all, he won't be at AA until 2013 at the earliest.
If even 4 of the prospects mentioned can someday become big league contributors, I'd be satisfied.
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