Dodgers Offseason Thread

[Villain]

News of the sale of the team will be brought in as it arrives. Focusing on the personel:

MLBTR:

Guaranteed Contracts

Ted Lilly, SP: $25.5MM through 2013
Chad Billingsley, SP: $35MM through 2014
Juan Uribe, IF: $16MM through 2013
Matt Guerrier, RP: $9.75MM through 2013
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Matt Kemp, CF: $16.3MM
Andre Ethier, RF: $10.7MM
Clayton Kershaw, SP: $8.4MM
James Loney, 1B: $6.5MM (non-tender candidate)
Hong-Chih Kuo, RP: $2.5MM (non-tender candidate)
Tony Gwynn Jr., OF: $1.1MM (non-tender candidate)
Free Agents

Hiroki Kuroda (SP), Jonathan Broxton (RP), Casey Blake (3B), Juan Rivera (OF/1B), Jon Garland (SP), Rod Barajas (C), Jamey Carroll (2B/SS), Vicente Padilla (RP), Mike MacDougal (RP), Aaron Miles (2B/3B)
Dodgers fans hope the end is in sight for the battle over ownership of their team. The bankruptcy hearings begin on Halloween, as current Dodgers owner Frank McCourt seeks the ability to auction the team's television rights while Fox and MLB seek termination of McCourt's ownership. Josh Fisher of Dodger Divorce said selling the TV rights is McCourt's only path to survival as the team's owner. The hearings will certainly keep Fisher and the L.A. Times' Bill Shaikin busy, but there are still crucial player personnel decisions to make for the Dodgers this offseason.

Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said he has a basic idea of the team's budget. In September, he said his aim is improving the offense in "the most dramatic way," implying Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder could be targets. I just can't see the ownership situation resolved quickly enough for that to happen, though. Even if MLB does force the sale of the Dodgers, it'd take months to get new ownership approved. In the interim, it seems unrealistic for MLB to approve adding a massive amount of debt.

It'll be costly just for Colletti to resolve the Dodgers' internal business. Out of 209 arbitration eligible players, Kemp's settlement projects as the second-highest salary, Ethier's the fifth-highest, and Kershaw's the ninth-highest. Unless their salaries are reduced through multiyear deals, the trio could cost $35MM next year. If payroll is cautiously trimmed to say, $100MM for 2012, the Dodgers will have less than $20MM to work with to fill all kinds of holes.

Extensions for potential award winners Kershaw and Kemp should be Colletti's primary focus. We've seen top pitchers extended for about $30MM, but Kershaw might need $35MM just for his three arbitration years, and that might be a discount over going year-to-year. I think we'd be entering the $100MM range for a six year deal, which is incredible given that three of those would be arbitration years. Kemp's 2011 season could be under $15MM in a multiyear deal, but each season thereafter should cost at least $20MM. There's no harm in Colletti laying groundwork now for either player, but ideally a prospective new owner would have final say in March. Kemp does not want to negotiate once his potential contract year begins.

A non-tender decision is due on Loney on December 12th, and one more season at around $6.5MM is the right move for the Dodgers. If they somehow later sign Pujols or Fielder, they could probably move Loney's contract before the season begins. Uribe is penciled in at third base and Dee Gordon at shortstop, leaving an opening at second. An offensive-minded player like Kelly Johnson could be a good fit over internal options Justin Sellers and Ivan DeJesus. Jerry Sands merits an extended look in left field, while Tim Federowicz and A.J. Ellis will probably sit behind the dish. Gwynn and Rivera could return as bench players.

The Dodgers' rotation could be a strength again, especially if Kuroda is re-signed. It'd be difficult to replace Kuroda without overpaying someone else on a multiyear deal, though Colletti could look to other starters coming over from Japan. Nathan Eovaldi would be the fifth starter. Colletti likes his bullpen, but he'll look to add a veteran reliever.

Kelly Johnson alone wouldn't fix the Dodgers' offense, though decent seasons from Ethier, Uribe, and Sands would help. Hopefully, the Dodgers' ownership situation becomes resolved by July. If the team is in contention at that point, Colletti can explore the trade market. The Dodgers' 2011-12 offseason will be overshadowed by the Frank McCourt drama, perhaps for the last time.

2012's 25-Man Roster Outlook:

RF: Ethier
CF: Kemp
LF: Rivera
3B: Uribe
SS: Gordon
2B: M. Ellis
1B: Loney*
C: A.J. Ellis

Bench:
C: Treanor
INF: Kennedy
INF: Hairston Jr.
1B/OF: Sands
OF: Gwynn Jr.

SP: Kershaw/Billingsley/Lilly/Harang/Capuano
RP: Guerrier, Guerra, Lindblom, Jansen, Elbert, Hawksworth

[Villain]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/dodgers-to-sign-juan-rivera.html

Juan Rivera: $4MM 2012, club option for another $4MM in 2013 ($500k buyout). There's probably a few incentives hidden in there for Juan to make more. I think he's being overpaid by about 3MM bucks but it's not the end of the world. Weak FA market means you have to pay more, I guess.

Easy signing for Dodgers. RH LF/1B to complement Loney if he returns. I don't see him playing every day so it remains to be seen if there's a return of Tony Gwynn Jr. or another cheap FA bench player with plus defense.

--------------

Apparently talks are happening with Kemp and his aowgent right now as well. Everyone is "optimistic" about it all (at least publicly). Kemp has been lobbying for a signing of Prince Fielder and that sounds impossible with the ownership the way it is. It figures to seem as if McCourt would be taking money out of his own wallet to sign him. Maybe a Barry Bonds type situation if something happens rapidly and the incoming owner can attempt to make it happen before the sale of the team is final. That'd be a bold splash to make an incoming impression. (I still see it as a 1% possibility but it's fun to hope.)

There's also a lot of chatter on the Dodgers possibly trading for David Wright. No thanks!

[bcransom]

I dont think the Dodgers are going to be bringing in any big names, as much as I'd love to see them bring in someone like Ramirez or Fielder. I do think, however, that an offseason of bringing back Kuroda, extending Kemp, and signing a quality second baseman would be a success. This team can contend next year with the core it has.

[EmpireWF]

Kemp is close to signing an 8-year, $160 million deal with LA.

[Villain]

8 years sounds perfect. While I'm not normally a fan of such long-term deals, I love this one because it buys most of Kemp's prime years without overpaying him into his late 30s. He should be 34 at the end of the deal and he's always on the field. He proved last winter that he has the attitude and work ethic to be at the top of his game and stay healthy. Everyone always had an idea that he was capable of MVP-type ability as a 5-tool player and I love that he proved it and is being rewarded for it.

Now we wait and see what happens with Kershaw. Let's hope that Ethier doesn't pout if he doesn't get a fat extension like he did when Billingsley got his.

Left on the menu:

*New Owner (duh)
*Kershaw
*Veteran Catcher (hopefully a cheap one on a 1-year deal) DONE
*Kuroda GONE
*5th starter (Eovaldi until De La Rossa is healed? Cheap Veteran FA on 1-2 year deal?) Harang/Capuano
*Middle INF/3B (Opposite of where Uribe plays, Gordon is SS) Mark Ellis, Hairston Jr.
*First Base/LF (depends where you want to put Rivera, plus the question of Loney's future) Loney/Rivera
*Decision on Kuo and maybe a Veteran Reliever (MacDougal? Another NRI?) Kuo Non-Tendered
*Prayers for a Fielder Miracle

Do you see anything to add?

[Villain]

FA Signing bump:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/dodgers-reach-agreement-with-mark-ellis.html

Cross the Middle INF/3B need of the list and forget any talk about David Wright or Aramis Ramirez. Dodgers throw a two-year, $8.75MM deal that includes a team option for 2014 at Mark Ellis.

Reaction: I hope he's not hitting in the 2-spot. Gordon and Ellis setting up on base for Kemp doesn't sound fun, neither one has a shiny OBP (but Gordon has room to improve). I expect Ellis to do well on defense and hopefully make a good impression on Gordon. I also expect to see Mattingly having Ellis drop a lot of bunts to get Gordon over. Ellis had 7 home runs last year, so I expect him to have zero as a Dodger (or at least at Dodger Stadium).

[Villain]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/15/dodgers-targeting-matt-treanor-as-backup-catcher/

Dodger's signed Misti May's husband for cheap. I like it because it means that AJ Ellis is going to bring his awesome OBP to the park with him and get some walks and singles! Should set-up nicely for the pitcher to bunt him over.

[bcransom]

FA Signing bump:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/dodgers-reach-agreement-with-mark-ellis.html

Cross the Middle INF/3B need of the list and forget any talk about David Wright or Aramis Ramirez. Dodgers throw a two-year, $8.75MM deal that includes a team option for 2014 at Mark Ellis.

Reaction: I hope he's not hitting in the 2-spot. Gordon and Ellis setting up on base for Kemp doesn't sound fun, neither one has a shiny OBP (but Gordon has room to improve). I expect Ellis to do well on defense and hopefully make a good impression on Gordon. I also expect to see Mattingly having Ellis drop a lot of bunts to get Gordon over. Ellis had 7 home runs last year, so I expect him to have zero as a Dodger (or at least at Dodger Stadium).

AJ Ellis needs to hit leadoff or second.

[Villain]

Colletti has stated an intention to keep Loney. Apparently Texas Jim is going to work on his swing mechanics all winter and Colletti is expecting him and Juan Uribe to each slug 20+ homers. Loney should get about $6MM in arbitration.

[Villain]

2years/$10MM To Chris Capuano. Please, if there is a God, allow for Kuroda to return.

:jimshake:

[Goober]

2years/$10MM To Chris Capuano. Please, if there is a God, allow for Kuroda to return.

:jimshake:

Chris Capuano is the fucking man, your team just paid way to much for him.

And lets be honest, there's no way he will stay healthy for four years in a row. I'll be cheering for him though. I was hoping he would sign in Minnesota though. :/

[Villain]

So Jerry Hairston Jr. signed as a bench bat. Aaron Harang is on the verge of a 2-year deal. Bargain shopping is just about complete, so it looks like just about all the pieces are set. I guess all Dodger fans can hope for are big seasons from players who are certainly capable of it and continued development from the younger players. I hope Gordon and Sands have big years.

A lot is riding on the likes of James Loney, Juan Uribe, Chad Billingsley, and company. We know what Kemp, Kershaw, and the veterans will do. Hopefully the NL West turns back into a shithole so the Dodgers will have a chance at the division.

[bcransom]

Paid above market value for practically every single guy we've signed. Ned Colletti is a moron.

[Villain]

Paid above market value for practically every single guy we've signed. Ned Colletti is a moron.

I agree. This offseason has had exactly 2 good moves on his part (Kemp extension and getting value for Dana Eveland even though he was going to be non-tendered anyways). I hope the new owner chooses to bring in a new GM and/or VP Baseball Ops.

Colletti has been awful with free agents and trades. His only good trades were getting Ethier for Bradley and Manny for free (the subsequent signing was fucking retarded).

[Villain]

2 year, 2MM contract for Tony Gywnn Jr. Hong-Chih Kuo was Non-tendered.

I think Kuo comes back on a Major League deal for about 1.5MM.