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I’ve been a baseball fan all my life. By this point, I mean that in quite the literal sense. Sure, there were those first six odd years when the diamond was not yet on my radar but I’m almost seven times that age now. Some of the guys who have been managing since some of you became baseball fans, I saw play. Hell, Tom Seaver pitched the first game I ever went to. I was in the bleachers when Willie Randolph and Reggie Jackson hit homers for the Yanks in the same inning off Jerry Koosman. When the Bronx Bombers took
the field that night I was mere yards away from Mickey Rivers. One of my very best friends hit Ron Darling in the leg with a paper airplane one summer afternoon as he stood atop the mound. Last year, Bert Blyleven went into Cooperstown after 15 years on the ballot. Yup, I saw him pitch in person.
Cooperstown is what this is all about. Other than the post-season this is most excited I get about baseball all year. I can’t wait to find out who’s going into the Hall of Fame. We’ll have the real answers shortly. For now, this is my two cents about what I think will happen with the balloting, and in some cases what should happen. I won’t examine all of the cases individually, but they’ll all be mentioned. Truthfully, this is a weak class. The next few years will feature a lot bigger names and more controversy (Bonds, Clemens, Sosa all hit the ballot next year). Oh well. Check back in twelve months and we’ll get into that.
To remain on the ballot going forward a player must be named on at least 5% of the ballots. These players will probably not make that minimum: Jeromy Burnitz, Brian Jordan, Bill Mueller, Terry Mulholland, Phil Nevin, Brad Radke, Tony Womack, Eric Young.
These players may manage to stay on the ballot, but are no real threat to ever get into the Hall: Vinny Castilla, Javy Lopez, Tim Salmon, Ruben Sierra.
The rest of the ballot (alphabetically):
Jeff Bagwell
Bagwell presents us with one of the more interesting cases on the ballot. He was one of the game’s very best players for roughly a decade. He snared an NL Rookie of the Year and an MVP in the process. The raw numbers are very good, but not necessarily HOF caliber for a first basemen: 2314 H, 449 HR, 1529 RBI, 202 SB. It’s in the metrics where his case is made. They’re eye-popping: .408 OBP, .540 SLG, .948 OPS, 149 OPS+. Indeed, a number of people have him ranked as one of the five or seven best ever to play his position. I once said I don’t think he’s HOF worthy. I’ve come around on that. Jeff Bagwell should be in the Hall of Fame. However he will not be, at least not this year. He had the misfortune of having a body builder’s physique during the steroid era. There has been some speculation that Bags is a juicer. Without anything more than his muscular build to go on, the voters were softer on him than some others and he managed to get 41.7% of the votes. Expect a small bump this year, say into the high 40s.
Juan Gonzalez
Juan Gone AKA Igor has borderline HOF credentials. He’s credited with a 17 year career but didn’t play much in either the first two or the last four seasons. During the time in between he was one of the most feared hitters in baseball. He hit 40 or more homers five times, had a six year stretch in which he drove in 128 runs or more five times topping 140 three of those (157 in 1998) and garnered two MVPs in the process. This contributed mightily to his Herculean .561 career slugging percentage, good for 17th all time. After the 2001 season he seemed destined for the Hall. Well, injuries took over and he would never again play 90 games in a single season and hit a total of 37 dingers over his last four campaigns. So why did he only earn 5% of the vote last year, his first on the ballot? He was named in the infamous Mitchell Report on steroids. Look for him to hover in that area, possibly dropping below the 5% it takes to stay on the ballot going forward.
Barry Larkin
Statistically, Larkin doesn’t appear to be anything special. The numbers just don’t jump off the page. He’s a career .295 hitter with only 4 career top 10 finishes in that category, none in the top 5. He never finished in the top 10 in home runs or RBI. Likewise, he was never top 5 in doubles, OBP, OPS+ and just once achieved that status in runs scored, triples, stolen bases, OPS. Still, he is the most likely candidate to go into Cooperstown this year. Why? Let’s start with this, from 1988 to 1999 he won the Silver Slugger award for shortstops 9 times. That means he was the best offensive player at his position for more than a decade. Add that to his 3 gold gloves, which probably would’ve been more if he didn’t have the misfortune of playing a large chunk of his career at the same time and in the same league as Ozzie Smith, and it becomes apparent he was no one-dimensional slug. He’s one of the best to ever play the position. With a weak ballot this year, voters have no excuse to not vote for him. Look for him to get in with a number between 75 and 80%.
Edgar Martinez
If ever there really was a “professional hitter”, Edgar Martinez was it. He became an everyday player in 1990 but rarely took the field after 1994 (he played until 2004). From then on, he was the Seattle Mariners daily DH. As such he’s put up some impressive numbers. He ranks in the top 70 all time in doubles, walks, runs created, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ and has a .312 career batting average (won two batting titles). Considering there are over 200 players in the Hall, top 70 in any category is nothing to sneeze at. However, the knock on Martinez is that he didn’t play the field. In over 2000 career games he had to use a glove other than a batting glove in fewer than 600, less than 30% of his time in the bigs. How do you vote on such a guy? We could say he is the best career DH of all time, but how big is the class you’re comparing him to? Not very. His offensive production says he should be in. His brief voter history says he will not, at least not yet. Look for him to come in right around 40%.
Don Mattingly
Donnie Baseball is a sore subject for me. He’s one of my favorite players ever. He also had a six year stretch where he was playing at a level very few players ever reach. He hit for power and average while almost always putting the ball in play, rarely striking out or taking a walk. Mattingly seemed well on his way to becoming one of the best first basemen of all time. Back injuries robbed him of his power. He still put the ball in play but couldn’t drive it the way he once did. He became very average at the plate. He remained excellent in the field, winning 9 gold gloves. This is his 12th year on the ballot but he has been trending up in recent years. Look for that to continue. He won’t get in, nor should he, but may break 30% for the first time.
Fred McGriff
The Crime Dog presents another interesting case. For a decade he was one of the most feared left handed power hitters in the game. However, it didn’t quite translate into HOF caliber numbers. His “counting” stats fall just below the benchmarks that make voters giddy and his metrics aren’t gaudy enough to get the stat-geeks all worked up. McGriff didn’t win many awards either. He has an All Star game MVP and 3 Silver Slugger awards over a 19 year career. He seems destined for the Hall of Very Good, not quite Cooperstown. Expect him to be in that 25% range when the voting comes out.
Mark McGwire
If you’re reading this you already know that Big Mac isn’t getting in the HOF due to his association with steroids. More interesting to me is that I’m not so sure he should be in even if roids never entered the picture. He hit a ton of homers and drew a ton of walks giving him an excellent OBP and SLG but didn’t seem to do much else. Some would argue that’s enough. I don’t think so. It’s remarkable that he hit 50+ homers four times including 65 or better twice. He hit 40 or more two other times. He finished in the top 5 in that category 9 times (one other top 10 finish) and is 10th overall yet never won an MVP and only three Silver Sluggers. One reason is despite playing in a hitter’s era, he only hit .300 once in any season in which he had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Another is that lots of those homers seem to be empty shots (solo blasts). In general, guys that hit a fair number of homeruns are ranked within 10 or 20 spots in homers and RBI. For instance, Fred McGriff is 26th in homers and 42nd in RBI. Edgar Martinez is 120th and 121st, respectively. Like I mentioned, Mac is 10th in homeruns. However, he’s only 67th in RBI. That’s a discrepancy going the wrong way. It seems, to me at least, that for a guy with a high OBP, lots of homers and the 8th best SLG of all time he didn’t help his teams as much as you would think. WAR (wins above replacement) seems to bear that out as he only finished top 10 in that category 4 times (According to the formula used by baseball-reference.com). Now add back in the steroids. He may get a little bump in votes since he owned up to the roid use before taking the St. Louis Cardinals’ hitting coach job but it won’t be near enough. Maybe he busts 25% this year.
Jack Morris
Morris is in a precarious spot concerning his HOF candidacy. He’s been on the Bert Blyleven path to enshrinement, getting a few more votes and plenty of articles written about how he should be voted in every year. However, he’s hitting a snag Blyleven didn’t. This is his 13th season on the ballot which gives him only two more chances after this. In coming seasons there will be a slew of big name high quality starting pitchers on the ballot. Next year will see Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling. 2014 will see sure fire first balloter Greg Maddux, one of his rotation mates and fellow 300 game winner Tom Glavine as well as Mike Mussina. There will also be a bevy of Hall-worthy position players in both of those years. This seems to be Morris’ best chance. Getting in will require almost a 22% jump from last season’s vote in which he received 53.5%. That’s a tall order. Blyleven getting in last year should help his cause. Morris really was considered one of his era’s best pitchers for quite some time despite never winning a Cy Young. He also has some legendary post-season performances to draw on. His support has been steadily growing but during his time on the ballot he’s never had a jump in voting anywhere near what he needs for enshrinement this year. This is a hard case to predict but I say he gets a healthy jump, perhaps even his biggest ever but still falls short. I’ll say somewhere in the low to mid 60s.
Dale Murphy
Murphy might be the oddest case on the ballot. His career is marked by great heights and great depths with no middle ground. For much of the 1980s he was one of, if not the best player in baseball winning back to back MVP awards in '82 and '83. That '83 season saw him join the 30-30 club (at least 30 homers and stolen bases in the same season). From 1980 through 1987 he hit 36 homers or more 5 times, leading the league twice, and drove in 100+ runs 5 times, also leading the league twice. He batted .280 or better 5 times, twice breaking .300. During this stretch he had an OPS+ of at least 121 every season except '81 (101) and at least 140 in 5 of them. He also won 5 gold gloves. He could truly do it all. However, his production fell off a cliff immediately following that stretch. From 1988 through the end of his career his highest marks in home runs, RBI and batting average were 24, 84 and .252, respectively. '88 saw him get an OPS+ of 106, the best mark he would get during this part of his career. He would never again receive any MVP consideration nor win a gold glove. In the blink of an eye, he went from being one of the best players in baseball to being just another guy. His sudden and very sharp decline has turned voters off to him despite the fact that his overall totals aren't terribly different from recent inductee Jim Rice, who played during the same era. His support has been hovering around 11% for years. I don't expect much different this time around.
Rafael Palmeiro
Statistically, Palmeiro is a lock to waltz into the Hall of Fame. By the metrics the kids like to use, he proves to be a compiler on the level of Eddie Murray. Like Murray, also a first baseman, Palmeiro’s counting stats are off the charts. He’s one of only 4 men to have at least 500 home runs and 3,000 hits (Murray, Hank Aaron and Willie Mays the others). When thinking of those numbers the words “first ballot” seems to be a foregone conclusion. However, like others on this ballot (Gonzalez and McGwire), the taint of steroids ruins his chance of ever getting into Cooperstown. In case you don’t know, his biggest crime is being caught in a lie. In front of a grand jury he adamantly denied ever having used any PEDs (performance enhancing drugs) besides Viagra, which he was a spokesman for, only to test positive for an anabolic steroid shortly thereafter. Somehow, the Supreme Court has decided to not go after him for perjury even though it has pursued cases against Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds without a failed test. It will be interesting to see if he gets enough votes to stay on the ballot (he managed 11% last year, his first).
Tim Raines
For my money, Rock is the most underappreciated player on the ballot. Leadoff hitters are expected to be catalysts for your lineup. They’re expected to make things happen with the bat and on the base paths. Not only did Raines do this but as best I can tell he’s the second best leadoff hitter of all time. He compares favorably to Hall of Famer and leadoff man Lou Brock across the board. Raines has a higher batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+. Especially for a leadoff hitter OBP is one of the most importants stats and it's where Raines really differentiates himself from Brock. Despite only a 1 point difference in batting average (Raines .294, Brock .293) there is a whopping 42 point discrepancy in OBP (Raines .385, Brock .343). In almost 1000 fewer plate appearances, Raines reached base more times, hit more homeruns, drove in more runs and only scored 31 fewer runs. The one area where it seems Brock has him beat is stolen bases. Brock is 2nd all-time with 938, Raines 5th with 808. Raines still comes out ahead there because he was successful on nearly 85% of his steals, best of anyone in the top 10 who played since they began keeping track of how many times players were caught stealing on a consistent basis (since 1912). Of course, this includes all-time steals leader and Raines' contemporary Rickey Henderson. At 75%, Brock is the lowest in the same group. What’s been keeping him out? Some is just plain ol’ undervaluing his accomplishments and some is backlash for admitted cocaine use. However, the latter didn’t keep Paul Molitor out of the Hall. By the way, playing in the same era as Molly, Raines also has a higher OBP and OPS+ despite a batting average of 12 points less. Raines is a case to watch, though. Support for him seems to be growing. He’s made significant jumps in the voting the last 2 years and should make another this year (37.5% last year). Look for him in the mid 40% range. He won’t get in this year, but if the trend continues he’ll really have a chance during the latter half of his HOF eligibility.
Lee Smith
If ever a career long relief pitcher could be considered a compiler, Lee Smith is that guy. His Hall of Fame candidacy rests strictly on how much value is placed on his 478 career saves, 3rd most all-time. When Mariano Rivera (even now at over 40 years old), Trevor Hoffman, Dennis Eckersley, Goose Gossage or Dan Quisenberry entered a game you got the feeling that it was over for the other team. I’ve watched a lot of Lee Smith and never once got that feeling. Every outing seemed to be an adventure. Digging into his numbers just a bit seems to bear that out. His career ERA of 3.03, WHIP of 1.256 and walks per 9 innings pitched of 3.4 wouldn’t be great for a starting pitcher but they would all be solid. However, when you’re only sending a guy out there 1 inning at a time to shut the door on your opponent in a close game, those numbers become downright nerve-racking. It was almost a foregone conclusion that he would allow someone on base. To his credit, he was able to wiggle out of lots of jams thanks in large part to being able to strike guys out. His 8.7 whiffs per 9 IP ranks 15th all-time. He’s been hovering around 45% most of his time on the ballot I don’t see any reason that will or should change.
Alan Trammell
Like Raines, Trammell is an underappreciated player. Along with former teammates Lou Whitaker, Jack Morris and the immortal Kirk Gibson he’s fallen into the abyss that’s ensnared many players who made their mark in the 1980s. He had the misfortune of playing in the AL during the same time as Cal Ripken Jr. and Robin Yount. He was just a shade below either of those guys but didn’t amass the totals of either. With four gold gloves he was quite respected as a fielder but he wasn’t performing the wizardry that Ozzie Smith was during the same era. The fact is he was one of the three best shortstops in baseball for a good stretch. He hit for power and average at a time when the vast majority of players at his position did neither. By the way, for you metrics buffs his numbers are very similar to Ripken who was a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer (I know, lots is due to Rip’s “importance” to the game, something that Trammell just doesn’t have). Ripken had a .276 BA, .340 OBP, .447 SLG, .778 OPS, 112 OPS+. Trammell: .285 BA, .352 OBP, .415 SLG, .767 OPS, 110 OPS+. Hmmm. I think he should be in, but it doesn’t look good. This is his 11th year on the ballot. His support has been growing in recent years but very slowly. Look for him to get his highest percentage yet, but that will only be into the mid to high 20% range.
Larry Walker
This is most interesting case on the ballot. There are no suspicions of steroid use that I'm aware of but many contend that Walker’s numbers are juiced, nonetheless. He played most of his career with the Rockies before the humidor. For the uninformed so many homers were hit in Coors Field the Rockies started storing balls in a humidor at the home stadium in 2002 to make them harder to hit out. Before this, saying a guy played for the Rockies then saying he hit a lot of home runs seemed redundant. Walker’s supporters seem to hang their hat on one number: 140. That’s his OPS+. It’s the most eye-popping stat he has because OPS+ is ball-park adjusted. With the average player being 100, it suggests that he was a monstrous 40% better than the average player regardless of venue. However, that alone is a flawed stat as any individual statistic is bound to be. If nothing else, it’s flawed because OPS+ is derived from a player’s regular OPS which heavily favors power hitters. His “counting stats” nor his Black Ink and Gray Ink marks are enough to say he’s Hall-worthy. Adding his counting stats to his metrics however, says he does. He’s in the top 20 all-time in SLG and “regular” OPS and top 100 in batting average, OBP, runs scored, total bases, doubles, homers, RBI, runs created, extra base hits and yes, OPS+. Detractors will point to the difference between his performance in Coors Field and games played elsewhere. At Coors, he hit .381 with a .710 SLG and averaged 42 HR and 141 RBI per 162 games. At all other stadiums those numbers are .282, .501, 27, 92. That nearly 100 point difference in average and over 200 point difference in SLG is alarming. His numbers outside of Coors, and during a hitter’s era, scream Hall of very good, but not Hall of Fame. In Coors, he looks like one of the best players of all time. Are the splits too big to vote for him? That’s the question voters face. I lean towards him not getting in, but I don’t have a vote. Even then, people should note there is some precedence here. Hall of Famer Wade Boggs is widely revered as an all-time great hitter. He spent a large chunk of his career in Boston and batted .369 in Fenway Park, .306 elsewhere. .306 is still outstanding, but the luster of his career .328 BA wears off. It pales in comparison to Rod Carew’s .328 because Carew was remarkably consistent hitting .333 at home and .323 on the road. HOF pitcher Don Drysdale spent his entire career with the Dodgers. At home he had .606 winning percentage with a 2.53 ERA and a WHIP of 1.083. On the road his winning percentage was .508 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.219 WHIP. Almost a full run difference in ERA is huge, especially considering he played in a pitcher-friendly era. Like I said, Walker is the most interesting case and will be for quite some time. He received 20% of the vote last year and I expect him to come in at around 25% this year.
Bernie Williams
I am a life-long Yankees’ fan. Bernie Williams spent his entire career with the Yanks. I have great respect for the way he played the game and the way he carries himself on and off the field. That said, this isn’t about my admiration. This is about my objectivity. With that in mind, it pains me to say that Bernie’s case for the Hall isn’t all that compelling. He had an excellent career and was a key cog on 4 World Series winning teams (won ALCS MVP in 1996). Unfortunately, he was a notch below the truly elite. Going inside the numbers doesn’t do anything to change my mind. He won a batting crown in 1998. Other than that he has a handful of top 10 finishes spread across a number of categories. He also won 4 gold gloves and a silver slugger. However, he only finished in the top 10 in MVP voting twice, never better than 7th. He’ll get some votes because he was always a well-liked figure. He’ll get some because he was a Yankee and because he was important to those championship teams. It won’t be nearly enough. I can see him in the 10 to 15% range.
the field that night I was mere yards away from Mickey Rivers. One of my very best friends hit Ron Darling in the leg with a paper airplane one summer afternoon as he stood atop the mound. Last year, Bert Blyleven went into Cooperstown after 15 years on the ballot. Yup, I saw him pitch in person.
Cooperstown is what this is all about. Other than the post-season this is most excited I get about baseball all year. I can’t wait to find out who’s going into the Hall of Fame. We’ll have the real answers shortly. For now, this is my two cents about what I think will happen with the balloting, and in some cases what should happen. I won’t examine all of the cases individually, but they’ll all be mentioned. Truthfully, this is a weak class. The next few years will feature a lot bigger names and more controversy (Bonds, Clemens, Sosa all hit the ballot next year). Oh well. Check back in twelve months and we’ll get into that.
To remain on the ballot going forward a player must be named on at least 5% of the ballots. These players will probably not make that minimum: Jeromy Burnitz, Brian Jordan, Bill Mueller, Terry Mulholland, Phil Nevin, Brad Radke, Tony Womack, Eric Young.
These players may manage to stay on the ballot, but are no real threat to ever get into the Hall: Vinny Castilla, Javy Lopez, Tim Salmon, Ruben Sierra.
The rest of the ballot (alphabetically):
Jeff Bagwell
Bagwell presents us with one of the more interesting cases on the ballot. He was one of the game’s very best players for roughly a decade. He snared an NL Rookie of the Year and an MVP in the process. The raw numbers are very good, but not necessarily HOF caliber for a first basemen: 2314 H, 449 HR, 1529 RBI, 202 SB. It’s in the metrics where his case is made. They’re eye-popping: .408 OBP, .540 SLG, .948 OPS, 149 OPS+. Indeed, a number of people have him ranked as one of the five or seven best ever to play his position. I once said I don’t think he’s HOF worthy. I’ve come around on that. Jeff Bagwell should be in the Hall of Fame. However he will not be, at least not this year. He had the misfortune of having a body builder’s physique during the steroid era. There has been some speculation that Bags is a juicer. Without anything more than his muscular build to go on, the voters were softer on him than some others and he managed to get 41.7% of the votes. Expect a small bump this year, say into the high 40s.
Juan Gonzalez
Juan Gone AKA Igor has borderline HOF credentials. He’s credited with a 17 year career but didn’t play much in either the first two or the last four seasons. During the time in between he was one of the most feared hitters in baseball. He hit 40 or more homers five times, had a six year stretch in which he drove in 128 runs or more five times topping 140 three of those (157 in 1998) and garnered two MVPs in the process. This contributed mightily to his Herculean .561 career slugging percentage, good for 17th all time. After the 2001 season he seemed destined for the Hall. Well, injuries took over and he would never again play 90 games in a single season and hit a total of 37 dingers over his last four campaigns. So why did he only earn 5% of the vote last year, his first on the ballot? He was named in the infamous Mitchell Report on steroids. Look for him to hover in that area, possibly dropping below the 5% it takes to stay on the ballot going forward.
Barry Larkin
Statistically, Larkin doesn’t appear to be anything special. The numbers just don’t jump off the page. He’s a career .295 hitter with only 4 career top 10 finishes in that category, none in the top 5. He never finished in the top 10 in home runs or RBI. Likewise, he was never top 5 in doubles, OBP, OPS+ and just once achieved that status in runs scored, triples, stolen bases, OPS. Still, he is the most likely candidate to go into Cooperstown this year. Why? Let’s start with this, from 1988 to 1999 he won the Silver Slugger award for shortstops 9 times. That means he was the best offensive player at his position for more than a decade. Add that to his 3 gold gloves, which probably would’ve been more if he didn’t have the misfortune of playing a large chunk of his career at the same time and in the same league as Ozzie Smith, and it becomes apparent he was no one-dimensional slug. He’s one of the best to ever play the position. With a weak ballot this year, voters have no excuse to not vote for him. Look for him to get in with a number between 75 and 80%.
Edgar Martinez
If ever there really was a “professional hitter”, Edgar Martinez was it. He became an everyday player in 1990 but rarely took the field after 1994 (he played until 2004). From then on, he was the Seattle Mariners daily DH. As such he’s put up some impressive numbers. He ranks in the top 70 all time in doubles, walks, runs created, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ and has a .312 career batting average (won two batting titles). Considering there are over 200 players in the Hall, top 70 in any category is nothing to sneeze at. However, the knock on Martinez is that he didn’t play the field. In over 2000 career games he had to use a glove other than a batting glove in fewer than 600, less than 30% of his time in the bigs. How do you vote on such a guy? We could say he is the best career DH of all time, but how big is the class you’re comparing him to? Not very. His offensive production says he should be in. His brief voter history says he will not, at least not yet. Look for him to come in right around 40%.
Don Mattingly
Donnie Baseball is a sore subject for me. He’s one of my favorite players ever. He also had a six year stretch where he was playing at a level very few players ever reach. He hit for power and average while almost always putting the ball in play, rarely striking out or taking a walk. Mattingly seemed well on his way to becoming one of the best first basemen of all time. Back injuries robbed him of his power. He still put the ball in play but couldn’t drive it the way he once did. He became very average at the plate. He remained excellent in the field, winning 9 gold gloves. This is his 12th year on the ballot but he has been trending up in recent years. Look for that to continue. He won’t get in, nor should he, but may break 30% for the first time.
Fred McGriff
The Crime Dog presents another interesting case. For a decade he was one of the most feared left handed power hitters in the game. However, it didn’t quite translate into HOF caliber numbers. His “counting” stats fall just below the benchmarks that make voters giddy and his metrics aren’t gaudy enough to get the stat-geeks all worked up. McGriff didn’t win many awards either. He has an All Star game MVP and 3 Silver Slugger awards over a 19 year career. He seems destined for the Hall of Very Good, not quite Cooperstown. Expect him to be in that 25% range when the voting comes out.
Mark McGwire
If you’re reading this you already know that Big Mac isn’t getting in the HOF due to his association with steroids. More interesting to me is that I’m not so sure he should be in even if roids never entered the picture. He hit a ton of homers and drew a ton of walks giving him an excellent OBP and SLG but didn’t seem to do much else. Some would argue that’s enough. I don’t think so. It’s remarkable that he hit 50+ homers four times including 65 or better twice. He hit 40 or more two other times. He finished in the top 5 in that category 9 times (one other top 10 finish) and is 10th overall yet never won an MVP and only three Silver Sluggers. One reason is despite playing in a hitter’s era, he only hit .300 once in any season in which he had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Another is that lots of those homers seem to be empty shots (solo blasts). In general, guys that hit a fair number of homeruns are ranked within 10 or 20 spots in homers and RBI. For instance, Fred McGriff is 26th in homers and 42nd in RBI. Edgar Martinez is 120th and 121st, respectively. Like I mentioned, Mac is 10th in homeruns. However, he’s only 67th in RBI. That’s a discrepancy going the wrong way. It seems, to me at least, that for a guy with a high OBP, lots of homers and the 8th best SLG of all time he didn’t help his teams as much as you would think. WAR (wins above replacement) seems to bear that out as he only finished top 10 in that category 4 times (According to the formula used by baseball-reference.com). Now add back in the steroids. He may get a little bump in votes since he owned up to the roid use before taking the St. Louis Cardinals’ hitting coach job but it won’t be near enough. Maybe he busts 25% this year.
Jack Morris
Morris is in a precarious spot concerning his HOF candidacy. He’s been on the Bert Blyleven path to enshrinement, getting a few more votes and plenty of articles written about how he should be voted in every year. However, he’s hitting a snag Blyleven didn’t. This is his 13th season on the ballot which gives him only two more chances after this. In coming seasons there will be a slew of big name high quality starting pitchers on the ballot. Next year will see Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling. 2014 will see sure fire first balloter Greg Maddux, one of his rotation mates and fellow 300 game winner Tom Glavine as well as Mike Mussina. There will also be a bevy of Hall-worthy position players in both of those years. This seems to be Morris’ best chance. Getting in will require almost a 22% jump from last season’s vote in which he received 53.5%. That’s a tall order. Blyleven getting in last year should help his cause. Morris really was considered one of his era’s best pitchers for quite some time despite never winning a Cy Young. He also has some legendary post-season performances to draw on. His support has been steadily growing but during his time on the ballot he’s never had a jump in voting anywhere near what he needs for enshrinement this year. This is a hard case to predict but I say he gets a healthy jump, perhaps even his biggest ever but still falls short. I’ll say somewhere in the low to mid 60s.
Dale Murphy
Murphy might be the oddest case on the ballot. His career is marked by great heights and great depths with no middle ground. For much of the 1980s he was one of, if not the best player in baseball winning back to back MVP awards in '82 and '83. That '83 season saw him join the 30-30 club (at least 30 homers and stolen bases in the same season). From 1980 through 1987 he hit 36 homers or more 5 times, leading the league twice, and drove in 100+ runs 5 times, also leading the league twice. He batted .280 or better 5 times, twice breaking .300. During this stretch he had an OPS+ of at least 121 every season except '81 (101) and at least 140 in 5 of them. He also won 5 gold gloves. He could truly do it all. However, his production fell off a cliff immediately following that stretch. From 1988 through the end of his career his highest marks in home runs, RBI and batting average were 24, 84 and .252, respectively. '88 saw him get an OPS+ of 106, the best mark he would get during this part of his career. He would never again receive any MVP consideration nor win a gold glove. In the blink of an eye, he went from being one of the best players in baseball to being just another guy. His sudden and very sharp decline has turned voters off to him despite the fact that his overall totals aren't terribly different from recent inductee Jim Rice, who played during the same era. His support has been hovering around 11% for years. I don't expect much different this time around.
Rafael Palmeiro
Statistically, Palmeiro is a lock to waltz into the Hall of Fame. By the metrics the kids like to use, he proves to be a compiler on the level of Eddie Murray. Like Murray, also a first baseman, Palmeiro’s counting stats are off the charts. He’s one of only 4 men to have at least 500 home runs and 3,000 hits (Murray, Hank Aaron and Willie Mays the others). When thinking of those numbers the words “first ballot” seems to be a foregone conclusion. However, like others on this ballot (Gonzalez and McGwire), the taint of steroids ruins his chance of ever getting into Cooperstown. In case you don’t know, his biggest crime is being caught in a lie. In front of a grand jury he adamantly denied ever having used any PEDs (performance enhancing drugs) besides Viagra, which he was a spokesman for, only to test positive for an anabolic steroid shortly thereafter. Somehow, the Supreme Court has decided to not go after him for perjury even though it has pursued cases against Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds without a failed test. It will be interesting to see if he gets enough votes to stay on the ballot (he managed 11% last year, his first).
Tim Raines
For my money, Rock is the most underappreciated player on the ballot. Leadoff hitters are expected to be catalysts for your lineup. They’re expected to make things happen with the bat and on the base paths. Not only did Raines do this but as best I can tell he’s the second best leadoff hitter of all time. He compares favorably to Hall of Famer and leadoff man Lou Brock across the board. Raines has a higher batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+. Especially for a leadoff hitter OBP is one of the most importants stats and it's where Raines really differentiates himself from Brock. Despite only a 1 point difference in batting average (Raines .294, Brock .293) there is a whopping 42 point discrepancy in OBP (Raines .385, Brock .343). In almost 1000 fewer plate appearances, Raines reached base more times, hit more homeruns, drove in more runs and only scored 31 fewer runs. The one area where it seems Brock has him beat is stolen bases. Brock is 2nd all-time with 938, Raines 5th with 808. Raines still comes out ahead there because he was successful on nearly 85% of his steals, best of anyone in the top 10 who played since they began keeping track of how many times players were caught stealing on a consistent basis (since 1912). Of course, this includes all-time steals leader and Raines' contemporary Rickey Henderson. At 75%, Brock is the lowest in the same group. What’s been keeping him out? Some is just plain ol’ undervaluing his accomplishments and some is backlash for admitted cocaine use. However, the latter didn’t keep Paul Molitor out of the Hall. By the way, playing in the same era as Molly, Raines also has a higher OBP and OPS+ despite a batting average of 12 points less. Raines is a case to watch, though. Support for him seems to be growing. He’s made significant jumps in the voting the last 2 years and should make another this year (37.5% last year). Look for him in the mid 40% range. He won’t get in this year, but if the trend continues he’ll really have a chance during the latter half of his HOF eligibility.
Lee Smith
If ever a career long relief pitcher could be considered a compiler, Lee Smith is that guy. His Hall of Fame candidacy rests strictly on how much value is placed on his 478 career saves, 3rd most all-time. When Mariano Rivera (even now at over 40 years old), Trevor Hoffman, Dennis Eckersley, Goose Gossage or Dan Quisenberry entered a game you got the feeling that it was over for the other team. I’ve watched a lot of Lee Smith and never once got that feeling. Every outing seemed to be an adventure. Digging into his numbers just a bit seems to bear that out. His career ERA of 3.03, WHIP of 1.256 and walks per 9 innings pitched of 3.4 wouldn’t be great for a starting pitcher but they would all be solid. However, when you’re only sending a guy out there 1 inning at a time to shut the door on your opponent in a close game, those numbers become downright nerve-racking. It was almost a foregone conclusion that he would allow someone on base. To his credit, he was able to wiggle out of lots of jams thanks in large part to being able to strike guys out. His 8.7 whiffs per 9 IP ranks 15th all-time. He’s been hovering around 45% most of his time on the ballot I don’t see any reason that will or should change.
Alan Trammell
Like Raines, Trammell is an underappreciated player. Along with former teammates Lou Whitaker, Jack Morris and the immortal Kirk Gibson he’s fallen into the abyss that’s ensnared many players who made their mark in the 1980s. He had the misfortune of playing in the AL during the same time as Cal Ripken Jr. and Robin Yount. He was just a shade below either of those guys but didn’t amass the totals of either. With four gold gloves he was quite respected as a fielder but he wasn’t performing the wizardry that Ozzie Smith was during the same era. The fact is he was one of the three best shortstops in baseball for a good stretch. He hit for power and average at a time when the vast majority of players at his position did neither. By the way, for you metrics buffs his numbers are very similar to Ripken who was a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer (I know, lots is due to Rip’s “importance” to the game, something that Trammell just doesn’t have). Ripken had a .276 BA, .340 OBP, .447 SLG, .778 OPS, 112 OPS+. Trammell: .285 BA, .352 OBP, .415 SLG, .767 OPS, 110 OPS+. Hmmm. I think he should be in, but it doesn’t look good. This is his 11th year on the ballot. His support has been growing in recent years but very slowly. Look for him to get his highest percentage yet, but that will only be into the mid to high 20% range.
Larry Walker
This is most interesting case on the ballot. There are no suspicions of steroid use that I'm aware of but many contend that Walker’s numbers are juiced, nonetheless. He played most of his career with the Rockies before the humidor. For the uninformed so many homers were hit in Coors Field the Rockies started storing balls in a humidor at the home stadium in 2002 to make them harder to hit out. Before this, saying a guy played for the Rockies then saying he hit a lot of home runs seemed redundant. Walker’s supporters seem to hang their hat on one number: 140. That’s his OPS+. It’s the most eye-popping stat he has because OPS+ is ball-park adjusted. With the average player being 100, it suggests that he was a monstrous 40% better than the average player regardless of venue. However, that alone is a flawed stat as any individual statistic is bound to be. If nothing else, it’s flawed because OPS+ is derived from a player’s regular OPS which heavily favors power hitters. His “counting stats” nor his Black Ink and Gray Ink marks are enough to say he’s Hall-worthy. Adding his counting stats to his metrics however, says he does. He’s in the top 20 all-time in SLG and “regular” OPS and top 100 in batting average, OBP, runs scored, total bases, doubles, homers, RBI, runs created, extra base hits and yes, OPS+. Detractors will point to the difference between his performance in Coors Field and games played elsewhere. At Coors, he hit .381 with a .710 SLG and averaged 42 HR and 141 RBI per 162 games. At all other stadiums those numbers are .282, .501, 27, 92. That nearly 100 point difference in average and over 200 point difference in SLG is alarming. His numbers outside of Coors, and during a hitter’s era, scream Hall of very good, but not Hall of Fame. In Coors, he looks like one of the best players of all time. Are the splits too big to vote for him? That’s the question voters face. I lean towards him not getting in, but I don’t have a vote. Even then, people should note there is some precedence here. Hall of Famer Wade Boggs is widely revered as an all-time great hitter. He spent a large chunk of his career in Boston and batted .369 in Fenway Park, .306 elsewhere. .306 is still outstanding, but the luster of his career .328 BA wears off. It pales in comparison to Rod Carew’s .328 because Carew was remarkably consistent hitting .333 at home and .323 on the road. HOF pitcher Don Drysdale spent his entire career with the Dodgers. At home he had .606 winning percentage with a 2.53 ERA and a WHIP of 1.083. On the road his winning percentage was .508 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.219 WHIP. Almost a full run difference in ERA is huge, especially considering he played in a pitcher-friendly era. Like I said, Walker is the most interesting case and will be for quite some time. He received 20% of the vote last year and I expect him to come in at around 25% this year.
Bernie Williams
I am a life-long Yankees’ fan. Bernie Williams spent his entire career with the Yanks. I have great respect for the way he played the game and the way he carries himself on and off the field. That said, this isn’t about my admiration. This is about my objectivity. With that in mind, it pains me to say that Bernie’s case for the Hall isn’t all that compelling. He had an excellent career and was a key cog on 4 World Series winning teams (won ALCS MVP in 1996). Unfortunately, he was a notch below the truly elite. Going inside the numbers doesn’t do anything to change my mind. He won a batting crown in 1998. Other than that he has a handful of top 10 finishes spread across a number of categories. He also won 4 gold gloves and a silver slugger. However, he only finished in the top 10 in MVP voting twice, never better than 7th. He’ll get some votes because he was always a well-liked figure. He’ll get some because he was a Yankee and because he was important to those championship teams. It won’t be nearly enough. I can see him in the 10 to 15% range.
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