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Now that Yu Darvish is a Texas Ranger, all the attention on the international market has gone to Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes, with the light becoming brighter last week when his residency in the Dominican Republic was established, making him finally eligible to sign. His U.S.-based representative, Adam Katz, insists that Cespedes will be in camp with a team, so a signing could happen soon, and it's time to talk about just how good he can be.
Similar to last month's piece on Darvish, I polled big league executives, many with extensive international experience and in-person looks at Cespedes. I didn't ask specifically about tools or projection. Instead, I asked whether the exec would take Cespedes over a series of five ultra-toolsy 20-something outfielders (like Cespedes) who have yet to reach their ceiling. The players are Colby Rasmus, Drew Stubbs, B.J. Upton, Chris Young and Adam Jones. The question, as presented to the insiders, was a simple one: You can have either Cespedes or each of these five outfielders for the remainder of their career -- and for free -- so cost should not enter into the decision.
Once again, opinions on where Cespedes fit on the scale were all over the board, with both extremes occurring as one exec took all five big leaguers ahead of Cespedes, while another chose Cespedes over all five established players.
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Colby Rasmus, Toronto Blue Jays
Scouting report: Once one of the top outfield prospects in baseball, Rasmus seemed to be growing into stardom during his second full season, but clashes with Tony La Russa led to a 2011 trade to Toronto. Things didn't get any better there, as Rasmus limped to the end with a final batting line of .225/.298/.391.
Rasmus had few supporters among those polled, although one National League exec who favored Rasmus over Cespedes is still a believer. "He's just so young, and look at what he just did in 2010," he said.
Others were not as convinced. "I just don't think he's as good as maybe he should be," said an AL scouting executive. "I don't like the swing, and there's something about the J.D. Drew way he goes about things."
Another American League front office member was also tired of the excuses. "I just don't buy the whole 'Tony La Russa turned this guy into a bad player' thing," he said.
One National League scout who preferred Rasmus said position plays a role in the discussion as well. "I know I'm in the minority here, but I see Cespedes as more of a right fielder than one who can patrol center," he explained. "That puts far more pressure on the bat."
The vote: Cespedes, 6-2
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Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati Reds
Scouting report: One of the best athletes in the game, Stubbs combines elite-level defense with power and speed, but severe contact issues led to 205 strikeouts in 2011 and more than a 100-point decline in OPS.
Stubbs' struggles in 2011 were just as troubling to some polled as those of Rasmus. "If you are going to punch out as much as Stubbs does, I'll take Cespedes for the bigger impact," explained an American League scout.
Another AL scout preferred Stubbs for his defense and for being the devil you know offensively. "Stubbs is an elite defender," he said. "And as much as we like projects and prospecting, there's a certain value to the reality of what a guy has done."
A National League executive wondered whether that reality is enough. "Stubbs is supposed to be Mike Cameron," he said. "We haven't seen that yet."
The vote: Cespedes, 6-2
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B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays
Scouting report: Once seen by many as the top prospect in the game, Upton's career as a big leaguer has been marred by inconsistency and questions about his effort, although he had 23 home runs and 36 stolen bases in 2011 while putting up a 243/.331/.429 line.
For one American League scout, this is where the line is drawn, but it has more to do with the unknown than with Cespedes' potential. "I've already put him ahead of a couple established big leaguers," he said. "That's pretty good. There's an expectation of what he's going to be, but there's still trepidation on a player that's coming here having never played a professional game."
Another American League executive understood that line of thinking but still preferred Cespedes. "So many of these players we're comparing him to have had their holes exposed," he said. "We can get caught without knowing what those might be with Cespedes."
Others had clearly had enough of waiting when it came to Upton. "He's always just showing flashes of what he's capable of," an American League scout said. "The lack of adjustments and the same damn swing every time and knowing how much better he can be just drives you crazy."
The vote: Cespedes, 5-3
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Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks
Scouting report: While he's averaged 23 home runs and 20 stolen bases in his five full seasons as Arizona's center fielder, he also has yet to have the breakthrough year many have projected for him.
One executive who preferred Cespedes wondered whether Young really belongs that far above the Rasmus/Stubbs tier. "We're five full years into Young in Arizona, and he has power and some speed and draws some walks, but he's also a career .240 hitter who has not once even had an .800 OPS."
Still, an American League executive liked the sure thing that he saw in Young. "He's bounced back from that 2009 disaster to be a pretty good player," he said. "He's a little older, but I'm sticking with the comfort."
Another American League executive explained how Cespedes' baseline exceeds Young's. "The proper barometer for Cespedes is .270, with 20-plus home runs and solid defense in center field," he said. "His plate discipline and how he acclimates will nudge those numbers north or put them on a downward trajectory."
The vote: Tie, 4-4
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Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles
Scouting report: While his over-aggressive approach is still a turnoff, Jones might be finally harnessing what are unquestionable tools, as he set career highs in 2011 with 25 home runs and a .466 slugging percentage.
Jones' 2011 campaign generated considerable buzz in the industry. "He's just starting to take steps forward," an American League scout said. "There's still room for plenty of growth."
Still, for the scouting executive who took Cespedes over all five candidates, the import's upside is too good to pass up. "There is a lot of room for opinion on these and a lot of interpretation," he said. "Cespedes is going to hit for power. It's not just massive raw strength; it's coordinated strength. He's a freakish athlete. I saw someone compare him physically to Bo Jackson, and while that might sound crazy, that's not far off for me. I don't think he's a guaranteed superstar, but I think there's a good chance he will be, and somebody is going to back up the Brink's truck to find out."
The vote: Jones, 6-2
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In the end, the debate is not over Cespedes' unquestioned upside as much as it is the chances of him reaching that ceiling. Most agree that he'll need up to three months in Triple-A to shake the rust off and get used to playing in a major league organization, and the projections for just how much he will hit, as opposed to strike out, range wildly. That ceiling is still far too alluring for some teams, and a projected deal of $40 million for five years has equal chances of being bargain or bust.
Similar to last month's piece on Darvish, I polled big league executives, many with extensive international experience and in-person looks at Cespedes. I didn't ask specifically about tools or projection. Instead, I asked whether the exec would take Cespedes over a series of five ultra-toolsy 20-something outfielders (like Cespedes) who have yet to reach their ceiling. The players are Colby Rasmus, Drew Stubbs, B.J. Upton, Chris Young and Adam Jones. The question, as presented to the insiders, was a simple one: You can have either Cespedes or each of these five outfielders for the remainder of their career -- and for free -- so cost should not enter into the decision.
Once again, opinions on where Cespedes fit on the scale were all over the board, with both extremes occurring as one exec took all five big leaguers ahead of Cespedes, while another chose Cespedes over all five established players.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Colby Rasmus, Toronto Blue Jays
Scouting report: Once one of the top outfield prospects in baseball, Rasmus seemed to be growing into stardom during his second full season, but clashes with Tony La Russa led to a 2011 trade to Toronto. Things didn't get any better there, as Rasmus limped to the end with a final batting line of .225/.298/.391.
Rasmus had few supporters among those polled, although one National League exec who favored Rasmus over Cespedes is still a believer. "He's just so young, and look at what he just did in 2010," he said.
Others were not as convinced. "I just don't think he's as good as maybe he should be," said an AL scouting executive. "I don't like the swing, and there's something about the J.D. Drew way he goes about things."
Another American League front office member was also tired of the excuses. "I just don't buy the whole 'Tony La Russa turned this guy into a bad player' thing," he said.
One National League scout who preferred Rasmus said position plays a role in the discussion as well. "I know I'm in the minority here, but I see Cespedes as more of a right fielder than one who can patrol center," he explained. "That puts far more pressure on the bat."
The vote: Cespedes, 6-2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati Reds
Scouting report: One of the best athletes in the game, Stubbs combines elite-level defense with power and speed, but severe contact issues led to 205 strikeouts in 2011 and more than a 100-point decline in OPS.
Stubbs' struggles in 2011 were just as troubling to some polled as those of Rasmus. "If you are going to punch out as much as Stubbs does, I'll take Cespedes for the bigger impact," explained an American League scout.
Another AL scout preferred Stubbs for his defense and for being the devil you know offensively. "Stubbs is an elite defender," he said. "And as much as we like projects and prospecting, there's a certain value to the reality of what a guy has done."
A National League executive wondered whether that reality is enough. "Stubbs is supposed to be Mike Cameron," he said. "We haven't seen that yet."
The vote: Cespedes, 6-2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays
Scouting report: Once seen by many as the top prospect in the game, Upton's career as a big leaguer has been marred by inconsistency and questions about his effort, although he had 23 home runs and 36 stolen bases in 2011 while putting up a 243/.331/.429 line.
For one American League scout, this is where the line is drawn, but it has more to do with the unknown than with Cespedes' potential. "I've already put him ahead of a couple established big leaguers," he said. "That's pretty good. There's an expectation of what he's going to be, but there's still trepidation on a player that's coming here having never played a professional game."
Another American League executive understood that line of thinking but still preferred Cespedes. "So many of these players we're comparing him to have had their holes exposed," he said. "We can get caught without knowing what those might be with Cespedes."
Others had clearly had enough of waiting when it came to Upton. "He's always just showing flashes of what he's capable of," an American League scout said. "The lack of adjustments and the same damn swing every time and knowing how much better he can be just drives you crazy."
The vote: Cespedes, 5-3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks
Scouting report: While he's averaged 23 home runs and 20 stolen bases in his five full seasons as Arizona's center fielder, he also has yet to have the breakthrough year many have projected for him.
One executive who preferred Cespedes wondered whether Young really belongs that far above the Rasmus/Stubbs tier. "We're five full years into Young in Arizona, and he has power and some speed and draws some walks, but he's also a career .240 hitter who has not once even had an .800 OPS."
Still, an American League executive liked the sure thing that he saw in Young. "He's bounced back from that 2009 disaster to be a pretty good player," he said. "He's a little older, but I'm sticking with the comfort."
Another American League executive explained how Cespedes' baseline exceeds Young's. "The proper barometer for Cespedes is .270, with 20-plus home runs and solid defense in center field," he said. "His plate discipline and how he acclimates will nudge those numbers north or put them on a downward trajectory."
The vote: Tie, 4-4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles
Scouting report: While his over-aggressive approach is still a turnoff, Jones might be finally harnessing what are unquestionable tools, as he set career highs in 2011 with 25 home runs and a .466 slugging percentage.
Jones' 2011 campaign generated considerable buzz in the industry. "He's just starting to take steps forward," an American League scout said. "There's still room for plenty of growth."
Still, for the scouting executive who took Cespedes over all five candidates, the import's upside is too good to pass up. "There is a lot of room for opinion on these and a lot of interpretation," he said. "Cespedes is going to hit for power. It's not just massive raw strength; it's coordinated strength. He's a freakish athlete. I saw someone compare him physically to Bo Jackson, and while that might sound crazy, that's not far off for me. I don't think he's a guaranteed superstar, but I think there's a good chance he will be, and somebody is going to back up the Brink's truck to find out."
The vote: Jones, 6-2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the end, the debate is not over Cespedes' unquestioned upside as much as it is the chances of him reaching that ceiling. Most agree that he'll need up to three months in Triple-A to shake the rust off and get used to playing in a major league organization, and the projections for just how much he will hit, as opposed to strike out, range wildly. That ceiling is still far too alluring for some teams, and a projected deal of $40 million for five years has equal chances of being bargain or bust.
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