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In some ways, a giant season from an unexpected source can be a double-edged sword. While getting a lot more out of a player than you expect going into a season is a great way to amass a bunch of juicy extra wins, predicting what comes next can be a maddening challenge. Whether you're a general manager of a major league team with a $100 million payroll or a general manager of a fantasy baseball team, setting expectations for players after an overachieving season can make or break you down the road.
Previously, we looked at the players who most underperformed their 2011 ZiPS projections last season to get a look at how they will do in 2012. Now we look at the flip side of the coin: the players who most exceeded their projections.
Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers
2011 Projected OPS: .685
Actual OPS: .895
More than any of the other hitters on this list, Avila's star season came truly out of nowhere. Between ZiPS and the fans surveyed by FanGraphs (.706 OPS), he was generally seen as a young catcher who could continue to fill the role adequately and was a quick learner with the glove. Instead of being merely adequate and accomplishing what Gerald Laird was supposed to in Detroit (and didn't), Avila put up a good season -- by Johnny Bench standards.
In Avila's favor, he just turned 25, so it's extremely unlikely to be a fluke of the Brady Anderson or Kevin Mitchell variety. However, there are solid reasons to expect a merely solid, rather than overwhelming, 2012 season from Avila. He's never done anything near this before, and his .366 batting average on balls in play in 2011 is a number that any player would have an impossible time maintaining. FanGraphs' xBABIP Calculator estimates likely BABIP from hit-ball data and sees Avila's 2011 as justifying only a .329 BABIP, which takes some of the air out of his numbers.
None of this should be taken as suggesting that Avila's a poor player or anything, but it's way too soon to take 2011 to be his expected baseline.
2012 projection: .254/.348/.420, 14 HR, 66 RBIs
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
2011 Projected OPS: .785
Actual OPS: .986
The question for Kemp isn't really whether he'll decline from his 2011 play, but just how far his numbers will drop. Kemp had a tremendous case for being the best player in baseball in 2011 (he was my pick in the ESPN MVP voting), enough for him to put up a 10 WAR season by Baseball Reference's reckoning. To put 10 WAR into respective, that's a Willie Mays peak year and the only 10-win season by any player since Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre in 2004.
It's hard to believe that a year ago Kemp and his agent, Dave Stewart, were fighting with the Dodgers, and Kemp was regularly rumored to be heading out of Los Angeles for pennies on the dollar.
A more normal season is probably in store for Kemp in 2012, but he's still likely to be a superstar, as he's shown he can stick in center field. While Kemp signed a huge contract extension with the Dodgers recently, he doesn't even have to touch 2011's numbers to be a good deal.
2012 projection: .280/.348/.503, 31 HR, 104 RBIs, 32 SB
Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers
2011 Projected OPS: .847
Actual OPS: 1.047
The trade that brought Vernon Wells to Anaheim and sent Napoli to the Rangers, already having been made fun of in the analytical community for months, looked even worse than anybody expected after 2011 was in the books. While Napoli didn't play a full slate of games, he made his 432 plate appearances count, terrorizing AL pitching to the tune of .320/.414/.631. As if to twist the knife even further, he hit .356/.433/.763 against his previous team.
Napoli's the oldest hitter on this list, having turned 31 in October, so it's very unlikely that he's going to hit like this again anytime soon. But there's one encouraging sign for him overall: He's made great strides with his defense behind the plate. Even if he regresses from his career-high 36 percent caught-stealing rate behind the plate (three years ago, it was as low as 17 percent), he's improved to the point that teams can't run wild on him. He also made very few mistakes behind the plate, committing just two errors and allowing one passed ball in 506 innings. Even with Napoli's bat regressing, his increased adequacy gives him a lot of value to the Rangers and fantasy players.
2012 projection: .272/.361/.538, 26 HR, 67 RBIs
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
2011 Projected OPS: .733
Actual OPS: .928
Thanks to the literally legendary collapse of the Red Sox in the final weeks of the season, Ellsbury's breakout 2011 will be one of the few things fans will look back on positively. Not only did Ellsbury come back well from a 2010 ruined by injury, but he hit 32 home runs, a number nobody saw coming.
Historically, when players have had these kinds of home run breakouts, their follow-up seasons have been a mixed bag. However, players have generally kept quite a bit of improvement from even the flukiest-looking home run totals. While Ellsbury might not hit 30 again, it's extremely likely he'll continue to hit more than the 10 he was hitting just a few years ago. ZiPS projects a decline to 16 home runs, but that's with only 560 projected plate appearances -- if Ellsbury gets 732 plate appearances, he should hit 20 again.
Another encouraging sign is the impressive uptick in his defensive statistics in center. While defensive numbers should be taken with a very large grain of salt in the short term, there's a lot more reason to like his defense than before.
2012 projection: .290/.345/.457, 16 HR, 62 RBIs, 40 SB
Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
2011 Projected OPS: .886
Actual OPS: 1.056
The magnitude of Bautista's improvement from 2009 to 2010 is extremely rare in baseball history. He did it again in 2011, not only avoiding regression from his huge 2010 season but actually getting even better. At this time last year, the résumé of Jose Bautista the Superstar was a lot shorter than that of Jose Bautista the Fourth Outfielder. After a second amazing season in a more difficult offensive environment, there's less reason to be skeptical, and ZiPS projects Bautista to have the best OPS in baseball in 2012.
While Rogers Centre is a hitters' park, Bautista's power is such that he could probably hit 40 home runs playing in an airport hangar. ESPN's Home Run Tracker, developed by Greg Rybarczyk, keeps a list of "no doubt" home runs -- those homers that cleared the fence by 20 vertical feet and landed 50 feet past the fence. Bautista led baseball in 2011 with 18 of them, 50 percent more than any hitter not named Mike Stanton.
2012 projection: .273/.408/.566, 36 HR, 88 RBI
Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants
2011 Projected ERA: 6.14
Actual ERA: 2.71
If last year you found a betting outlet that allowed you to bet a dollar on the odds of Vogelsong finishing in the top five in ERA, you would now be living in a much fancier house and driving a much sexier car. As wrong as his ZiPS projection (and well, everyone's projection) turned out to be, Vogelsong's path from a shellacked Pirates flop to unimpressive NPB pitcher to NL All-Star is one of those stories that makes being a baseball fan great.
While his peripherals suggested he wasn't pitching at the level of a 2.71 ERA in 2011, even his FIP of 3.67 leaves him a solid starting pitcher. As great a story as he was, you'd be smart to hedge your bets, as Giants GM Brian Sabean did when signing him to a two-year, $8.3 million deal. Remember, improvement or not, Vogelsong's just a year removed from being a guy allowing six walks a game to Triple-A batters.
2012 projection: 8-10, 4.18 ERA, 153 IP, 119 K's
Philip Humber, Chicago White Sox
2011 Projected ERA: 6.40
Actual ERA: 3.75
While Humber was a 2003 first-round pick, his status as a prospect had long since evaporated and it looked like Humber had become an organizational player, filling spots in the rotation of Triple-A teams. After being waived twice last winter, Humber landed a rotation spot in Chicago due to injuries and the team's desire to use Chris Sale as a reliever.
Thanks to his changeup, Humber went 8-5 with a 3.10 ERA before the All-Star break but came back to earth in the second half, going 1-4 with a 5.01 ERA in 10 starts.
Despite pitching well in the majors for three months, Humber's record suggests being very cautious about expectations going forward. After all, a pitcher with a 4.67 career ERA against Triple-A hitters isn't generally a great bet to succeed in the majors, and Humber's reliance on his changeup leaves him with a small margin of error. If someone in your fantasy league really wants to grab Humber in your draft this year, let 'em.
2012 projection: 7-8, 4.86 ERA, 140 2/3 IP, 89 K's
Doug Fister, Detroit Tigers
2011 Projected ERA: 4.64
Actual ERA: 2.83
Like Humber, Fister relies on a changeup, but Fister's change has been harder to hit, and his peripherals have improved (3.02 FIP last year) enough that Detroit's No. 2 starter is a much safer bet than he was a year ago.
Fister's always going to walk a thinner line of success than a power pitcher who strikes out batters with a 95 mph fastball, but he plays in a division where he won't face any scary offenses and will continue to be an above-average starter.
2012 projection: 12-9, 3.98 ERA, 181 1/2 IP, 105 K's
Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics, and Freddy Garcia, New York Yankees
Colon's projected ERA: 5.63
Colon's actual ERA: 4.00
Garcia's projected ERA: 4.83
Garcia's actual ERA: 3.62
They play on different teams now, but Colon and Garcia shared the commonality of being way-past-prime, injury-prone former stars signed to minor league deals by the Yankees last year.
The Yankees ended up winning 97 games in 2011 but entered spring training with a mess of a rotation, consisting of CC Sabathia and a bunch of unknowns and risks. Combined, Colon and Garcia gave the Yankees 311 innings of sub-4 ERA pitching (3.99), far more than anyone expected they had left in their arms.
Whether in the majors or fantasy, both remain extremely risky. Colon had the better peripherals of the pair in 2011 (3.83 FIP vs. Garcia's 4.12) and has the easier park in 2012, but the last time he threw 100 innings before 2011 was 2005, and the A's offense won't make winning games easy. Garcia has an offense that'll net him more wins by remaining in New York, but Yankee Stadium is a rougher place to pitch given his occasional susceptibility to the long ball, and he's an injury risk himself.
Colon's 2012 projection: 6-9, 4.23 ERA, 112 2/3 IP, 80 K's
Garcia's 2012 projection: 9-8, 4.85 ERA, 128 IP, 75 K's
Previously, we looked at the players who most underperformed their 2011 ZiPS projections last season to get a look at how they will do in 2012. Now we look at the flip side of the coin: the players who most exceeded their projections.
Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers
2011 Projected OPS: .685
Actual OPS: .895
More than any of the other hitters on this list, Avila's star season came truly out of nowhere. Between ZiPS and the fans surveyed by FanGraphs (.706 OPS), he was generally seen as a young catcher who could continue to fill the role adequately and was a quick learner with the glove. Instead of being merely adequate and accomplishing what Gerald Laird was supposed to in Detroit (and didn't), Avila put up a good season -- by Johnny Bench standards.
In Avila's favor, he just turned 25, so it's extremely unlikely to be a fluke of the Brady Anderson or Kevin Mitchell variety. However, there are solid reasons to expect a merely solid, rather than overwhelming, 2012 season from Avila. He's never done anything near this before, and his .366 batting average on balls in play in 2011 is a number that any player would have an impossible time maintaining. FanGraphs' xBABIP Calculator estimates likely BABIP from hit-ball data and sees Avila's 2011 as justifying only a .329 BABIP, which takes some of the air out of his numbers.
None of this should be taken as suggesting that Avila's a poor player or anything, but it's way too soon to take 2011 to be his expected baseline.
2012 projection: .254/.348/.420, 14 HR, 66 RBIs
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
2011 Projected OPS: .785
Actual OPS: .986
The question for Kemp isn't really whether he'll decline from his 2011 play, but just how far his numbers will drop. Kemp had a tremendous case for being the best player in baseball in 2011 (he was my pick in the ESPN MVP voting), enough for him to put up a 10 WAR season by Baseball Reference's reckoning. To put 10 WAR into respective, that's a Willie Mays peak year and the only 10-win season by any player since Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre in 2004.
It's hard to believe that a year ago Kemp and his agent, Dave Stewart, were fighting with the Dodgers, and Kemp was regularly rumored to be heading out of Los Angeles for pennies on the dollar.
A more normal season is probably in store for Kemp in 2012, but he's still likely to be a superstar, as he's shown he can stick in center field. While Kemp signed a huge contract extension with the Dodgers recently, he doesn't even have to touch 2011's numbers to be a good deal.
2012 projection: .280/.348/.503, 31 HR, 104 RBIs, 32 SB
Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers
2011 Projected OPS: .847
Actual OPS: 1.047
The trade that brought Vernon Wells to Anaheim and sent Napoli to the Rangers, already having been made fun of in the analytical community for months, looked even worse than anybody expected after 2011 was in the books. While Napoli didn't play a full slate of games, he made his 432 plate appearances count, terrorizing AL pitching to the tune of .320/.414/.631. As if to twist the knife even further, he hit .356/.433/.763 against his previous team.
Napoli's the oldest hitter on this list, having turned 31 in October, so it's very unlikely that he's going to hit like this again anytime soon. But there's one encouraging sign for him overall: He's made great strides with his defense behind the plate. Even if he regresses from his career-high 36 percent caught-stealing rate behind the plate (three years ago, it was as low as 17 percent), he's improved to the point that teams can't run wild on him. He also made very few mistakes behind the plate, committing just two errors and allowing one passed ball in 506 innings. Even with Napoli's bat regressing, his increased adequacy gives him a lot of value to the Rangers and fantasy players.
2012 projection: .272/.361/.538, 26 HR, 67 RBIs
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
2011 Projected OPS: .733
Actual OPS: .928
Thanks to the literally legendary collapse of the Red Sox in the final weeks of the season, Ellsbury's breakout 2011 will be one of the few things fans will look back on positively. Not only did Ellsbury come back well from a 2010 ruined by injury, but he hit 32 home runs, a number nobody saw coming.
Historically, when players have had these kinds of home run breakouts, their follow-up seasons have been a mixed bag. However, players have generally kept quite a bit of improvement from even the flukiest-looking home run totals. While Ellsbury might not hit 30 again, it's extremely likely he'll continue to hit more than the 10 he was hitting just a few years ago. ZiPS projects a decline to 16 home runs, but that's with only 560 projected plate appearances -- if Ellsbury gets 732 plate appearances, he should hit 20 again.
Another encouraging sign is the impressive uptick in his defensive statistics in center. While defensive numbers should be taken with a very large grain of salt in the short term, there's a lot more reason to like his defense than before.
2012 projection: .290/.345/.457, 16 HR, 62 RBIs, 40 SB
Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
2011 Projected OPS: .886
Actual OPS: 1.056
The magnitude of Bautista's improvement from 2009 to 2010 is extremely rare in baseball history. He did it again in 2011, not only avoiding regression from his huge 2010 season but actually getting even better. At this time last year, the résumé of Jose Bautista the Superstar was a lot shorter than that of Jose Bautista the Fourth Outfielder. After a second amazing season in a more difficult offensive environment, there's less reason to be skeptical, and ZiPS projects Bautista to have the best OPS in baseball in 2012.
While Rogers Centre is a hitters' park, Bautista's power is such that he could probably hit 40 home runs playing in an airport hangar. ESPN's Home Run Tracker, developed by Greg Rybarczyk, keeps a list of "no doubt" home runs -- those homers that cleared the fence by 20 vertical feet and landed 50 feet past the fence. Bautista led baseball in 2011 with 18 of them, 50 percent more than any hitter not named Mike Stanton.
2012 projection: .273/.408/.566, 36 HR, 88 RBI
Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants
2011 Projected ERA: 6.14
Actual ERA: 2.71
If last year you found a betting outlet that allowed you to bet a dollar on the odds of Vogelsong finishing in the top five in ERA, you would now be living in a much fancier house and driving a much sexier car. As wrong as his ZiPS projection (and well, everyone's projection) turned out to be, Vogelsong's path from a shellacked Pirates flop to unimpressive NPB pitcher to NL All-Star is one of those stories that makes being a baseball fan great.
While his peripherals suggested he wasn't pitching at the level of a 2.71 ERA in 2011, even his FIP of 3.67 leaves him a solid starting pitcher. As great a story as he was, you'd be smart to hedge your bets, as Giants GM Brian Sabean did when signing him to a two-year, $8.3 million deal. Remember, improvement or not, Vogelsong's just a year removed from being a guy allowing six walks a game to Triple-A batters.
2012 projection: 8-10, 4.18 ERA, 153 IP, 119 K's
Philip Humber, Chicago White Sox
2011 Projected ERA: 6.40
Actual ERA: 3.75
While Humber was a 2003 first-round pick, his status as a prospect had long since evaporated and it looked like Humber had become an organizational player, filling spots in the rotation of Triple-A teams. After being waived twice last winter, Humber landed a rotation spot in Chicago due to injuries and the team's desire to use Chris Sale as a reliever.
Thanks to his changeup, Humber went 8-5 with a 3.10 ERA before the All-Star break but came back to earth in the second half, going 1-4 with a 5.01 ERA in 10 starts.
Despite pitching well in the majors for three months, Humber's record suggests being very cautious about expectations going forward. After all, a pitcher with a 4.67 career ERA against Triple-A hitters isn't generally a great bet to succeed in the majors, and Humber's reliance on his changeup leaves him with a small margin of error. If someone in your fantasy league really wants to grab Humber in your draft this year, let 'em.
2012 projection: 7-8, 4.86 ERA, 140 2/3 IP, 89 K's
Doug Fister, Detroit Tigers
2011 Projected ERA: 4.64
Actual ERA: 2.83
Like Humber, Fister relies on a changeup, but Fister's change has been harder to hit, and his peripherals have improved (3.02 FIP last year) enough that Detroit's No. 2 starter is a much safer bet than he was a year ago.
Fister's always going to walk a thinner line of success than a power pitcher who strikes out batters with a 95 mph fastball, but he plays in a division where he won't face any scary offenses and will continue to be an above-average starter.
2012 projection: 12-9, 3.98 ERA, 181 1/2 IP, 105 K's
Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics, and Freddy Garcia, New York Yankees
Colon's projected ERA: 5.63
Colon's actual ERA: 4.00
Garcia's projected ERA: 4.83
Garcia's actual ERA: 3.62
They play on different teams now, but Colon and Garcia shared the commonality of being way-past-prime, injury-prone former stars signed to minor league deals by the Yankees last year.
The Yankees ended up winning 97 games in 2011 but entered spring training with a mess of a rotation, consisting of CC Sabathia and a bunch of unknowns and risks. Combined, Colon and Garcia gave the Yankees 311 innings of sub-4 ERA pitching (3.99), far more than anyone expected they had left in their arms.
Whether in the majors or fantasy, both remain extremely risky. Colon had the better peripherals of the pair in 2011 (3.83 FIP vs. Garcia's 4.12) and has the easier park in 2012, but the last time he threw 100 innings before 2011 was 2005, and the A's offense won't make winning games easy. Garcia has an offense that'll net him more wins by remaining in New York, but Yankee Stadium is a rougher place to pitch given his occasional susceptibility to the long ball, and he's an injury risk himself.
Colon's 2012 projection: 6-9, 4.23 ERA, 112 2/3 IP, 80 K's
Garcia's 2012 projection: 9-8, 4.85 ERA, 128 IP, 75 K's
:joeybats:
LOL at the continued hate.
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