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30. Baltimore
LAST SEASON: 69-93 (fifth place in AL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
This will be the 15th season since the Orioles last appeared in the playoffs, but there are few signs that they are moving in the right direction, or that they have established the kind of organizational bedrock needed to build in baseball's toughest division. Dan Duquette has replaced Andy MacPhail as general manager, and the list of what he needs is long: Frontline pitching, more pitching, even more pitching and a wave of position prospects.
It appears the Orioles will get little return from the $20 million they will pay Brian Roberts over the next two seasons, and Adam Jones will be eligible for free agency after the 2013 season. What needs to happen for the Orioles is a complete turnaround from Brian Matusz, who had a disastrous 2011 season, and more development from Zach Britton. Prayers could be useful, too. -- Buster Olney
The next step
What used to be a Baltimore staple in the 1970s and '80s has been difficult to replicate in recent years. The Orioles' starting pitching staff needs to be rebuilt. Baltimore's No. 1 pick in 2011, Dylan Bundy, offers a good start. The Orioles must continue to develop pitching from within, and even consider trading Adam Jones for arms if necessary. -- Jim Bowden
29. Houston
LAST SEASON: 56-106 (sixth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
New Astros owner Jim Crane grew up in St. Louis and was a fan of the Cardinals, sometimes caddying as a teenager for members of the Cardinals team. His understanding of the history of that franchise will probably serve he and general manager Jeffrey Luhnow well, because the Astros will follow the same path once blazed by Branch Rickey when he ran the Cardinals in the 1930s. It's all about building the farm system, and according to rival executives, the work that needs is total reconstruction.
Former GM Ed Wade did leave a modest core of prospects for Luhnow to build around, and Wade did the heaviest, ugliest work of stripping down Houston's roster of its most expensive players, such as Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. Carlos Lee is entering the final year of the six-year, $100 million deal he signed before the 2007 season, and Wandy Rodriguez is the only player signed for 2013. The slate is clean for Crane and Luhnow to build a new Houston tradition, which will probably take years. -- Buster Olney
The next step
The Astros are building from scratch, and that starts with a complete overhaul and upgrade of the scouting department. In time, that should upgrade the farm system, but signing some mid-level free agents to trade for prospects at the June 31 deadline would accelerate that upgrade. -- Jim Bowden
28. Chicago (AL)
LAST SEASON: 79-83 (third place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
Things are shaking up on the South Side, as GM Kenny Williams has finally decided to rebuild. Even though the Sox won 79 games last season, the club let Mark Buehrle leave as a free agent, and traded outfielder Carlos Quentin and closer Sergio Santos for much-needed prospects.
Despite those imports, Chicago still had the lowest farm system score among our voters, and the departure of three key players mean contention is unlikely this year. Fans should be pleased to see the team finally committed to the future, but things could get ugly in the next couple of seasons. -- Buster Olney
The next step
Chicago's rebuild commenced this offseason, as Quentin, Buehrle and Santos are gone. But will they totally commit to a full rebuild and go at it full bore? They should deal Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn and A.J. Pierzynski for whatever they can get, although at this point Konerko is the only one with any real trade value. -- Jim Bowden
27. Cleveland
LAST SEASON: 80-82 (second place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
This probably seems a bit low for Cleveland, a team that stayed in the AL Central race for much of last season and some see as a darkhorse in 2012. Problem is, that speaks more to their weak division than to the Tribe's overall quality.
Catcher Carlos Santana is set for superstardom and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is another fine young player, but the Tribe lacks impact talent at a number of spots on the diamond, doesn't have much talent on the farm that is close to helping, nor does it have the money needed to bring in top free agents. If there was a greater degree of certainty regarding Ubaldo Jimenez' ability to recapture his 2010 form, this club would rank higher, but without that, the Indians are in shaky territory. -- Buster Olney
The next step
With the exception of last year's draft, the Indians' farm system has gone backward. Having traded two of their top pitching prospects (Drew Pomeranz and Alex White) for Jimenez, they must figure out what has gone wrong for him in order to justify the price they paid. Without Jimenez at top form, they can't compete for a playoff spot. -- Jim Bowden
26. New York (NL)
LAST SEASON: 77-85 (fourth place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
Maybe the most laughable line delivered by any baseball executive over the past decade came from Mets owner Fred Wilpon, who told reporters that the pending Madoff case wouldn't affect the way the team did its baseball business. Except at the time Wilpon said it, he wasn't kidding, because he either couldn't or didn't foresee the way the litigation would wreck the Mets' cash flow.
They didn't bid to keep Jose Reyes in this offseason, and neither did they make any other substantial acquistions. As Adam Rubin of ESPN New York.com reported, the Mets' owners have affected the greatest single-season reduction in payroll in baseball history. The situation cannot get better until there is a resolution in the Madoff case, in whatever direction this takes the Mets -- either to a final accounting of debt that will enable the Wilpons to take their payroll forward, or through the sale of the team. Until that happens, Mets fans will have to wallow in inertia, near the bottom of an extremely competitive NL East. -- Buster Olney
The next step
Though it would be an extremely unpopular move, trading David Wright must be a consideration. Problem is, he has a 2013 option on his contract that disappears if he is traded this year. The Mets should hope the new, shorter fences at Citi Field will help Wright's power numbers, and then look to trade him next winter once they have picked up his option and his trade value has increased. -- Jim Bowden
25. Minnesota
LAST SEASON: 63-99 (fifth place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
After two straight division titles in 2009 and 2010, things got ugly for the Twins in 2011, who posted their lowest winning percentage since 1995. Injuries have compromised the careers of club cornerstones Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, who are both signed to enormous contracts that will keep them in Minnesota through 2018 and 2013, respectively.
Those deals are almost immovable, which means interim GM Terry Ryan is limited with what else he can so, as those two players will be paid a total of $37 million in each of the next two seasons. If either player is able to recover their MVP form, this ranking will be much higher next year. But without Mauer and Morneau playing at a high level, this team is a few years away. -- Buster Olney
The next step
The Twins have always done a nice job of developing reliable mid-rotation starters, but they don't have anyone at or near the major league level who can dominate. Their staff finished last in the AL in strikeouts last year, and Minny can begin the overhaul process by dealing Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker for any kind young arms it can find. -- Jim Bowden
24. Pittsburgh
LAST SEASON: 72-90 (fourth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
While the Bucs hovered around .500 into August of 2011, their collapse down the stretch showed there is still much work to be done. The team has not been shy about spending lots of money in the draft, but thus far has not produced any impact players other than Andrew McCutchen.
Between Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, the Pirates could have two top-of-the-rotation starters arriving in the next couple of years, but it's unclear where the runs are going to come from. And so far, Pittsburgh has been unsuccessful in signing McCutchen to a long-term deal, leading to speculation in rival front offices that the Pirates may have to consider moving the All-Star center fielder sometime in the next calendar year. Pittsburgh is headed in the right direction, but the turnaround is taking longer than anticipated. -- Buster Olney
The next step
It seems like only yesterday that McCutchen was seen as a top prospect. Now the Bucs must decide if they will sign him to a Jay Bruce-like extension (six years, $51 million) or trade him for prospects. If they keep drafting like they have in recent years, their improvement can continue. -- Jim Bowden
23. Oakland
LAST SEASON: 74-88 (third place AL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
The A's uncertain ballpark situation is a cloud that has been hanging over the franchise for years, and they are almost certainly going to be one of the worst teams in baseball in 2012. So why don't they rank lower? Because they fortified their farm system this winter with the trades of Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, and have one of the better collections of young arms around.
Further, they have virtually no dead weight on their roster, which means they are well positioned to push forward in the next five years. The AL West will belong to the Angels and Rangers for the next couple of seasons, but the A's (and Mariners) will be lurking in 2014. -- Buster Olney
The next step
With their rebuilding already under way, the A's will probably draft within the top three slots over the next few years; it's crucial they do not miss on those picks. A move to a new stadium in San Jose, will give this financially strapped club a much needed injection of revenue. -- Jim Bowden
22. Miami
LAST SEASON: 72-90 (fifth place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
The Marlins generated a lot of hype this winter with the signings of Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, but the long-term outlook is not completely positive.
While their farm system has recently produced slugger Mike Stanton, there isn't really much more on the horizon. And Josh Johnson, the ace of their staff, has averaged just 119 innings per year since 2006, which leaves their pitching in question. The club should compete for a playoff spot in 2012, but ownership has never shown a commitment to building a sustained winner. Until it does, there will always be reason to be skeptical about the Marlins' future. -- Buster Olney
The next step
With Stanton, Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins are set on the corners. But they need to upgrade at catcher, second base and center field through the draft and international signings. Stanton and Morrison are poised to hit arbitration and free agency around the same time, and the club must manage this situation delicately. -- Jim Bowden
21. Milwaukee
LAST SEASON: 96-66 (first place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
Despite the departure of Prince Fielder and the pending suspension of Ryan Braun, this club has the pitching depth to contend in the wide open NL Central in 2012. However, things get murky next winter, when both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum are eligible for free agency.
It's unlikely that Milwaukee can afford to keep both right-handers (or even one), and its farm system, while improving, is still shallow. Throw in the fact that the Brewers get very little offensive production from first base, center field, catcher and shortstop, and this is a team in long-term limbo. -- Buster Olney
The next step
The Brewers gave up a lot to get Greinke, so they better find a way to keep him. Extending Greinke is essential to the Brewers' success in the next five years. Currently their lineup is too right-handed, so that will need to be addressed sooner rather than later. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 69-93 (fifth place in AL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
This will be the 15th season since the Orioles last appeared in the playoffs, but there are few signs that they are moving in the right direction, or that they have established the kind of organizational bedrock needed to build in baseball's toughest division. Dan Duquette has replaced Andy MacPhail as general manager, and the list of what he needs is long: Frontline pitching, more pitching, even more pitching and a wave of position prospects.
It appears the Orioles will get little return from the $20 million they will pay Brian Roberts over the next two seasons, and Adam Jones will be eligible for free agency after the 2013 season. What needs to happen for the Orioles is a complete turnaround from Brian Matusz, who had a disastrous 2011 season, and more development from Zach Britton. Prayers could be useful, too. -- Buster Olney
The next step
What used to be a Baltimore staple in the 1970s and '80s has been difficult to replicate in recent years. The Orioles' starting pitching staff needs to be rebuilt. Baltimore's No. 1 pick in 2011, Dylan Bundy, offers a good start. The Orioles must continue to develop pitching from within, and even consider trading Adam Jones for arms if necessary. -- Jim Bowden
29. Houston
LAST SEASON: 56-106 (sixth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
New Astros owner Jim Crane grew up in St. Louis and was a fan of the Cardinals, sometimes caddying as a teenager for members of the Cardinals team. His understanding of the history of that franchise will probably serve he and general manager Jeffrey Luhnow well, because the Astros will follow the same path once blazed by Branch Rickey when he ran the Cardinals in the 1930s. It's all about building the farm system, and according to rival executives, the work that needs is total reconstruction.
Former GM Ed Wade did leave a modest core of prospects for Luhnow to build around, and Wade did the heaviest, ugliest work of stripping down Houston's roster of its most expensive players, such as Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. Carlos Lee is entering the final year of the six-year, $100 million deal he signed before the 2007 season, and Wandy Rodriguez is the only player signed for 2013. The slate is clean for Crane and Luhnow to build a new Houston tradition, which will probably take years. -- Buster Olney
The next step
The Astros are building from scratch, and that starts with a complete overhaul and upgrade of the scouting department. In time, that should upgrade the farm system, but signing some mid-level free agents to trade for prospects at the June 31 deadline would accelerate that upgrade. -- Jim Bowden
28. Chicago (AL)
LAST SEASON: 79-83 (third place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
Things are shaking up on the South Side, as GM Kenny Williams has finally decided to rebuild. Even though the Sox won 79 games last season, the club let Mark Buehrle leave as a free agent, and traded outfielder Carlos Quentin and closer Sergio Santos for much-needed prospects.
Despite those imports, Chicago still had the lowest farm system score among our voters, and the departure of three key players mean contention is unlikely this year. Fans should be pleased to see the team finally committed to the future, but things could get ugly in the next couple of seasons. -- Buster Olney
The next step
Chicago's rebuild commenced this offseason, as Quentin, Buehrle and Santos are gone. But will they totally commit to a full rebuild and go at it full bore? They should deal Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn and A.J. Pierzynski for whatever they can get, although at this point Konerko is the only one with any real trade value. -- Jim Bowden
27. Cleveland
LAST SEASON: 80-82 (second place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
This probably seems a bit low for Cleveland, a team that stayed in the AL Central race for much of last season and some see as a darkhorse in 2012. Problem is, that speaks more to their weak division than to the Tribe's overall quality.
Catcher Carlos Santana is set for superstardom and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is another fine young player, but the Tribe lacks impact talent at a number of spots on the diamond, doesn't have much talent on the farm that is close to helping, nor does it have the money needed to bring in top free agents. If there was a greater degree of certainty regarding Ubaldo Jimenez' ability to recapture his 2010 form, this club would rank higher, but without that, the Indians are in shaky territory. -- Buster Olney
The next step
With the exception of last year's draft, the Indians' farm system has gone backward. Having traded two of their top pitching prospects (Drew Pomeranz and Alex White) for Jimenez, they must figure out what has gone wrong for him in order to justify the price they paid. Without Jimenez at top form, they can't compete for a playoff spot. -- Jim Bowden
26. New York (NL)
LAST SEASON: 77-85 (fourth place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
Maybe the most laughable line delivered by any baseball executive over the past decade came from Mets owner Fred Wilpon, who told reporters that the pending Madoff case wouldn't affect the way the team did its baseball business. Except at the time Wilpon said it, he wasn't kidding, because he either couldn't or didn't foresee the way the litigation would wreck the Mets' cash flow.
They didn't bid to keep Jose Reyes in this offseason, and neither did they make any other substantial acquistions. As Adam Rubin of ESPN New York.com reported, the Mets' owners have affected the greatest single-season reduction in payroll in baseball history. The situation cannot get better until there is a resolution in the Madoff case, in whatever direction this takes the Mets -- either to a final accounting of debt that will enable the Wilpons to take their payroll forward, or through the sale of the team. Until that happens, Mets fans will have to wallow in inertia, near the bottom of an extremely competitive NL East. -- Buster Olney
The next step
Though it would be an extremely unpopular move, trading David Wright must be a consideration. Problem is, he has a 2013 option on his contract that disappears if he is traded this year. The Mets should hope the new, shorter fences at Citi Field will help Wright's power numbers, and then look to trade him next winter once they have picked up his option and his trade value has increased. -- Jim Bowden
25. Minnesota
LAST SEASON: 63-99 (fifth place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
After two straight division titles in 2009 and 2010, things got ugly for the Twins in 2011, who posted their lowest winning percentage since 1995. Injuries have compromised the careers of club cornerstones Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, who are both signed to enormous contracts that will keep them in Minnesota through 2018 and 2013, respectively.
Those deals are almost immovable, which means interim GM Terry Ryan is limited with what else he can so, as those two players will be paid a total of $37 million in each of the next two seasons. If either player is able to recover their MVP form, this ranking will be much higher next year. But without Mauer and Morneau playing at a high level, this team is a few years away. -- Buster Olney
The next step
The Twins have always done a nice job of developing reliable mid-rotation starters, but they don't have anyone at or near the major league level who can dominate. Their staff finished last in the AL in strikeouts last year, and Minny can begin the overhaul process by dealing Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker for any kind young arms it can find. -- Jim Bowden
24. Pittsburgh
LAST SEASON: 72-90 (fourth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
While the Bucs hovered around .500 into August of 2011, their collapse down the stretch showed there is still much work to be done. The team has not been shy about spending lots of money in the draft, but thus far has not produced any impact players other than Andrew McCutchen.
Between Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, the Pirates could have two top-of-the-rotation starters arriving in the next couple of years, but it's unclear where the runs are going to come from. And so far, Pittsburgh has been unsuccessful in signing McCutchen to a long-term deal, leading to speculation in rival front offices that the Pirates may have to consider moving the All-Star center fielder sometime in the next calendar year. Pittsburgh is headed in the right direction, but the turnaround is taking longer than anticipated. -- Buster Olney
The next step
It seems like only yesterday that McCutchen was seen as a top prospect. Now the Bucs must decide if they will sign him to a Jay Bruce-like extension (six years, $51 million) or trade him for prospects. If they keep drafting like they have in recent years, their improvement can continue. -- Jim Bowden
23. Oakland
LAST SEASON: 74-88 (third place AL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
The A's uncertain ballpark situation is a cloud that has been hanging over the franchise for years, and they are almost certainly going to be one of the worst teams in baseball in 2012. So why don't they rank lower? Because they fortified their farm system this winter with the trades of Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, and have one of the better collections of young arms around.
Further, they have virtually no dead weight on their roster, which means they are well positioned to push forward in the next five years. The AL West will belong to the Angels and Rangers for the next couple of seasons, but the A's (and Mariners) will be lurking in 2014. -- Buster Olney
The next step
With their rebuilding already under way, the A's will probably draft within the top three slots over the next few years; it's crucial they do not miss on those picks. A move to a new stadium in San Jose, will give this financially strapped club a much needed injection of revenue. -- Jim Bowden
22. Miami
LAST SEASON: 72-90 (fifth place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
The Marlins generated a lot of hype this winter with the signings of Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, but the long-term outlook is not completely positive.
While their farm system has recently produced slugger Mike Stanton, there isn't really much more on the horizon. And Josh Johnson, the ace of their staff, has averaged just 119 innings per year since 2006, which leaves their pitching in question. The club should compete for a playoff spot in 2012, but ownership has never shown a commitment to building a sustained winner. Until it does, there will always be reason to be skeptical about the Marlins' future. -- Buster Olney
The next step
With Stanton, Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins are set on the corners. But they need to upgrade at catcher, second base and center field through the draft and international signings. Stanton and Morrison are poised to hit arbitration and free agency around the same time, and the club must manage this situation delicately. -- Jim Bowden
21. Milwaukee
LAST SEASON: 96-66 (first place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The lowdown
Despite the departure of Prince Fielder and the pending suspension of Ryan Braun, this club has the pitching depth to contend in the wide open NL Central in 2012. However, things get murky next winter, when both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum are eligible for free agency.
It's unlikely that Milwaukee can afford to keep both right-handers (or even one), and its farm system, while improving, is still shallow. Throw in the fact that the Brewers get very little offensive production from first base, center field, catcher and shortstop, and this is a team in long-term limbo. -- Buster Olney
The next step
The Brewers gave up a lot to get Greinke, so they better find a way to keep him. Extending Greinke is essential to the Brewers' success in the next five years. Currently their lineup is too right-handed, so that will need to be addressed sooner rather than later. -- Jim Bowden
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