Tweet
Prospects have never been trendier amongst baseball fans than they are right now. The MLB Draft is now televised, most baseball blogs and online publications now publish at least a Top 10 Prospects list for each organization, and struggling fan bases such as that of the Kansas City Royals have begun to see their attendance rise as their prized minor leaguers begin to reach the majors.
The same can be said for their popularity within major league organizations, too.
Teams have begun pouring so much money into the draft that the new CBA contains specific limitations to curb the spending spree. Teams now often value control years more than overall talent and have become extremely cautious in parting with top prospects to acquire proven talent. This generalization goes for both big-market and small-market franchises, too, which is something that was not often said in previous years.
Which teams have benefited most from homegrown talent in recent years? Which teams have drafted amateur players and developed them into major league talent the best?
For a lack of a better endpoint, I chose to look at the draft history of the past decade. I ranked teams in total wins above replacement added by these homegrown players since the 2002 Draft, but also included the average WAR per homegrown player for that club. This helps determine if a team simply hit big on a player or two, or if they had a more holistic success in developing quality big league talent through the draft.
Below are the top five franchises in terms of WAR accumulated by homegrown talent:
#5) Tampa Bay Rays — 80.2 WAR (4.46 WAR/player)
Their inclusion should surprise few, as Tampa Bay has been the poster child for small market organizations building through the draft, but the Rays’ draft history over the past decade has been a mixed bag of success. The organization has only drafted and developed 18 big leaguers in the past decade. Only two teams (Houston and Philadelphia) have developed less homegrown talent. When the Rays have found success in the draft over the past decade, though, they hit the jackpot. Two superstars — Evan Longoria and David Price — along with 2002 first-round pick B.J. Upton combine for 71.2% of the total WAR accumulated by homegrown players in that time frame. And with Desmond Jennings and Matt Moore poised for breakout campaigns in 2012, it seems the Rays are poised to cash in on the draft yet again.
#4) Milwaukee Brewers — 86 WAR (3.91 WAR/player)
After a decade of occupying the cellar in both the AL Central and NL Central, the Milwaukee Brewers transformed their big league squad through the draft. Since 2002, they anchored their lineup with the homegrown trio of Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, and Ryan Braun. They also drafted a fringe-ace in right-hander Yovani Gallardo, who has pitched atop their rotation for the past handful of seasons. General manager Doug Melvin then acquired complementary pieces via trade and free agency, which resulted in the first two postseason appearances for Milwaukee since the 1982 season.
#3) Los Angeles Dodgers — 95.5 WAR (3.98 WAR/player)
The recent legal troubles for the organization have sullied what was a solid run from 2006-2009. The latter portion of that stretch was driven by homegrown talent in every portion of the roster. Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw headlined the rotation; Matt Kemp — and to a lesser extent Russell Martin and James Loney — provided value in the batting order; and Jonathan Broxton locked down the closer’s role. The Dodgers reached two consecutive Game 5’s in the NLCS in 2008 and 2009. The organization hopes that more recent draftees Dee Gordon, Zach Lee, and Nate Eovaldi can complement Kemp and Kershaw over the next three or four years and help the organization to a postseason berth yet again.
#2) San Francisco Giants — 97.9 WAR (2.88 WAR/player)
San Francisco has been a perennial contender in the NL West for over a decade and earned a World Series championship in 2010, yet many fans overlook just how well the organization has performed in the draft over the past decade. Not only have the Giants acquired superstar talent — like Tim Lincecum — through the draft, but they also have accumulated a myriad of useful big league players. In fact, only the Miami Marlins and Detroit Tigers have seen more homegrown talent drafted since 2002 make major league debuts. Players such as Matt Cain, Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner, and Buster Posey have all played significant roles in the organization’s success in the past decade. The average WAR per player is not overly impressive for the Giants since the 2002 Draft, but the overall accumulation of talent is perhaps the best in baseball.
#1) Boston Red Sox — 100.3 WAR (4.36 WAR/player)
With Theo Epstein at the helm, the Red Sox became one of the most-effectively run organizations in Major League Baseball, and that extended to the draft. Since the 2002 season, the organization drafted one MVP (Dustin Pedroia) and one who perhaps should have been MVP (Jacoby Ellsbury). They drafted one of the best closers in baseball (Jonathan Papelbon), one of the best left-handed starters in baseball (Jon Lester), and one of the best set-up men in baseball (Daniel Bard). Boston doesn’t quite boast the overall depth of quality homegrown talent that San Francisco does, but the upper echelon is clearly the cream of the crop.
The same can be said for their popularity within major league organizations, too.
Teams have begun pouring so much money into the draft that the new CBA contains specific limitations to curb the spending spree. Teams now often value control years more than overall talent and have become extremely cautious in parting with top prospects to acquire proven talent. This generalization goes for both big-market and small-market franchises, too, which is something that was not often said in previous years.
Which teams have benefited most from homegrown talent in recent years? Which teams have drafted amateur players and developed them into major league talent the best?
For a lack of a better endpoint, I chose to look at the draft history of the past decade. I ranked teams in total wins above replacement added by these homegrown players since the 2002 Draft, but also included the average WAR per homegrown player for that club. This helps determine if a team simply hit big on a player or two, or if they had a more holistic success in developing quality big league talent through the draft.
Below are the top five franchises in terms of WAR accumulated by homegrown talent:
#5) Tampa Bay Rays — 80.2 WAR (4.46 WAR/player)
Their inclusion should surprise few, as Tampa Bay has been the poster child for small market organizations building through the draft, but the Rays’ draft history over the past decade has been a mixed bag of success. The organization has only drafted and developed 18 big leaguers in the past decade. Only two teams (Houston and Philadelphia) have developed less homegrown talent. When the Rays have found success in the draft over the past decade, though, they hit the jackpot. Two superstars — Evan Longoria and David Price — along with 2002 first-round pick B.J. Upton combine for 71.2% of the total WAR accumulated by homegrown players in that time frame. And with Desmond Jennings and Matt Moore poised for breakout campaigns in 2012, it seems the Rays are poised to cash in on the draft yet again.
#4) Milwaukee Brewers — 86 WAR (3.91 WAR/player)
After a decade of occupying the cellar in both the AL Central and NL Central, the Milwaukee Brewers transformed their big league squad through the draft. Since 2002, they anchored their lineup with the homegrown trio of Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, and Ryan Braun. They also drafted a fringe-ace in right-hander Yovani Gallardo, who has pitched atop their rotation for the past handful of seasons. General manager Doug Melvin then acquired complementary pieces via trade and free agency, which resulted in the first two postseason appearances for Milwaukee since the 1982 season.
#3) Los Angeles Dodgers — 95.5 WAR (3.98 WAR/player)
The recent legal troubles for the organization have sullied what was a solid run from 2006-2009. The latter portion of that stretch was driven by homegrown talent in every portion of the roster. Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw headlined the rotation; Matt Kemp — and to a lesser extent Russell Martin and James Loney — provided value in the batting order; and Jonathan Broxton locked down the closer’s role. The Dodgers reached two consecutive Game 5’s in the NLCS in 2008 and 2009. The organization hopes that more recent draftees Dee Gordon, Zach Lee, and Nate Eovaldi can complement Kemp and Kershaw over the next three or four years and help the organization to a postseason berth yet again.
#2) San Francisco Giants — 97.9 WAR (2.88 WAR/player)
San Francisco has been a perennial contender in the NL West for over a decade and earned a World Series championship in 2010, yet many fans overlook just how well the organization has performed in the draft over the past decade. Not only have the Giants acquired superstar talent — like Tim Lincecum — through the draft, but they also have accumulated a myriad of useful big league players. In fact, only the Miami Marlins and Detroit Tigers have seen more homegrown talent drafted since 2002 make major league debuts. Players such as Matt Cain, Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner, and Buster Posey have all played significant roles in the organization’s success in the past decade. The average WAR per player is not overly impressive for the Giants since the 2002 Draft, but the overall accumulation of talent is perhaps the best in baseball.
#1) Boston Red Sox — 100.3 WAR (4.36 WAR/player)
With Theo Epstein at the helm, the Red Sox became one of the most-effectively run organizations in Major League Baseball, and that extended to the draft. Since the 2002 season, the organization drafted one MVP (Dustin Pedroia) and one who perhaps should have been MVP (Jacoby Ellsbury). They drafted one of the best closers in baseball (Jonathan Papelbon), one of the best left-handed starters in baseball (Jon Lester), and one of the best set-up men in baseball (Daniel Bard). Boston doesn’t quite boast the overall depth of quality homegrown talent that San Francisco does, but the upper echelon is clearly the cream of the crop.
On Monday morning, I wrote an article that revealed the top five teams in Major League Baseball at drafting and developing talent for their big league club over the past decade, starting with the 2002 Draft.
Several people commented that they wished to see the entire list of teams, ranked by total accumulated WAR and also including average WAR per homegrown player. Here is the entire league:
**See Link for table**
The disparity between the Boston Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners is 91.4 wins. That’s unbelievable. That’s as many wins as the Tampa Bay Rays netted last year, which ended in an AL Wild Card and a postseason berth. Heck, that paltry +8.9 WAR represents fewer wins than Jacoby Ellsbury was worth in 2011 alone!
In some ways, analyzing the bottom teams is more entertaining (or painful, depending on your loyalties) than looking back at the top teams’ successes. Here are the bottom five teams at building through the draft, who all finished below .500 and averaged 70.6 wins last season:
#26) Houston Astros — 24.2 WAR (1.51 WAR/player)
The Astros have developed the fewest homegrown players since the 2002 Draft — only graduating 16 draftees to the big leagues — and exactly one of them has been even above-average: Hunter Pence. The remainder of their picks have either fizzled out or were lost in free agent compensation. 2002 first-round draft pick Derick Grigsby left baseball due to crippling depression issues. 2006 first-round draft pick Maxwell Sapp left baseball after three years of hitting only .224/.310/.313 in A-ball. Houston didn’t even agree to terms with a draft pick higher than fifth-rounder Collin DeLome in 2007. It has simply been a rough road for the Astros in the draft. Things remain on the upswing, though, especially after the Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn trades.
#27) Chicago Cubs — 19.3 WAR (0.92 WAR/player)
If the Astros have only developed one stud player since the 2002 Draft, the Chicago Cubs have developed no one significant. They have been relatively successful at drafting and developing minor role players — Tony Campana, Rich Hill, Darwin Barney, Tyler Colvin, etc — but the homegrown talent is lacking star power. The best the Cubs have done is Sean Marshall, who found success as a dominant set-up man — which, while nice, has little overall value for creating a homegrown core to build around. Perhaps the 2005 Draft personifies the Cubs’ developmental success over the past decade. The 2005 Draft saw one Chicago Cub draftee make the big leagues (thus far), and that was left-handed reliever Donnie Veal, who pitched 16.1 innings for the Pirates in 2009 and compiled a 7.16 ERA. The system suffered yet another blow prior to the 2011 season, when they sent Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, and company to Tampa Bay for Matt Garza.
#28) Cleveland Indians — 15.5 WAR (0.65 WAR/player)
The draft history since 2002 for the Indians is fascinating. On one hand, seven of their last ten first-round picks have made big league debuts with Cleveland. That is obviously a plus. On the other hand, though, the vast majority of those first-round draftees have not provided much in terms of value. Jeremy Guthrie, Michael Aubrey, Trevor Crowe and Alex White all netted negative value in their respective stints in the Indians’ big league club. The organization had some luck with mediocre left-handers — Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and David Huff — but that’s hardly anything to get excited about. Considering ESPN’s Keith Law recently ranked the Indians’ farm system as the second-worst in all of baseball, overall production from homegrown talent does not appear poised to skyrocket anytime soon.
#29) Chicago White Sox — 11.9 WAR (0.54 WAR/player)
The White Sox have never been known for spending money in the draft, and like it or not, spending money (for the most part) acquires better talent. Gordon Beckham has provided the most value (+4.6 WAR) of any homegrown player drafted since 2002. Gordon Beckham has also been labeled an underachiever thus far in his big league career, which illustrates the level of success the White Sox have experienced over the past decade. It gets worse. The legendary Chris Getz is the organization’s second-best position player acquired through the draft since 2002. Chris Getz and his whopping +0.8 WAR through 117 games with the White Sox. Eesh. The light shines a little more brightly now that Chris Sale has firmly broken into the majors, though he may turn out to be nothing more than a set-up man down the road and nothing is percolating down in the minors.
#30) Seattle Mariners — 8.9 WAR (0.45 WAR/player)
With this last-place ranking, it should be no surprise the Seattle Mariners have finished under .500 in six of the past eight seasons. The organization lost numerous picks to free agent compensation, struck out on a couple of position players — Matt Tuiasosopo and Jeff Clement — and also traded away top prospects for big league talent. All three components led to this dead last ranking. Right-hander Doug Fister (+6.4 WAR) is the highlight of this group, with Dustin Ackley being the only other player being with more than two wins. The addition of Jack Zduriencik as GM has helped flush the organization with quality prospects, which will help end the bleeding in Seattle, but it’s not difficult to understand why the Mariners have fallen out of contention in the AL West for the better part of a decade. It’s difficult to build a winning franchise without a constant stream of effective cost-controlled talent.
Several people commented that they wished to see the entire list of teams, ranked by total accumulated WAR and also including average WAR per homegrown player. Here is the entire league:
**See Link for table**
The disparity between the Boston Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners is 91.4 wins. That’s unbelievable. That’s as many wins as the Tampa Bay Rays netted last year, which ended in an AL Wild Card and a postseason berth. Heck, that paltry +8.9 WAR represents fewer wins than Jacoby Ellsbury was worth in 2011 alone!
In some ways, analyzing the bottom teams is more entertaining (or painful, depending on your loyalties) than looking back at the top teams’ successes. Here are the bottom five teams at building through the draft, who all finished below .500 and averaged 70.6 wins last season:
#26) Houston Astros — 24.2 WAR (1.51 WAR/player)
The Astros have developed the fewest homegrown players since the 2002 Draft — only graduating 16 draftees to the big leagues — and exactly one of them has been even above-average: Hunter Pence. The remainder of their picks have either fizzled out or were lost in free agent compensation. 2002 first-round draft pick Derick Grigsby left baseball due to crippling depression issues. 2006 first-round draft pick Maxwell Sapp left baseball after three years of hitting only .224/.310/.313 in A-ball. Houston didn’t even agree to terms with a draft pick higher than fifth-rounder Collin DeLome in 2007. It has simply been a rough road for the Astros in the draft. Things remain on the upswing, though, especially after the Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn trades.
#27) Chicago Cubs — 19.3 WAR (0.92 WAR/player)
If the Astros have only developed one stud player since the 2002 Draft, the Chicago Cubs have developed no one significant. They have been relatively successful at drafting and developing minor role players — Tony Campana, Rich Hill, Darwin Barney, Tyler Colvin, etc — but the homegrown talent is lacking star power. The best the Cubs have done is Sean Marshall, who found success as a dominant set-up man — which, while nice, has little overall value for creating a homegrown core to build around. Perhaps the 2005 Draft personifies the Cubs’ developmental success over the past decade. The 2005 Draft saw one Chicago Cub draftee make the big leagues (thus far), and that was left-handed reliever Donnie Veal, who pitched 16.1 innings for the Pirates in 2009 and compiled a 7.16 ERA. The system suffered yet another blow prior to the 2011 season, when they sent Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, and company to Tampa Bay for Matt Garza.
#28) Cleveland Indians — 15.5 WAR (0.65 WAR/player)
The draft history since 2002 for the Indians is fascinating. On one hand, seven of their last ten first-round picks have made big league debuts with Cleveland. That is obviously a plus. On the other hand, though, the vast majority of those first-round draftees have not provided much in terms of value. Jeremy Guthrie, Michael Aubrey, Trevor Crowe and Alex White all netted negative value in their respective stints in the Indians’ big league club. The organization had some luck with mediocre left-handers — Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and David Huff — but that’s hardly anything to get excited about. Considering ESPN’s Keith Law recently ranked the Indians’ farm system as the second-worst in all of baseball, overall production from homegrown talent does not appear poised to skyrocket anytime soon.
#29) Chicago White Sox — 11.9 WAR (0.54 WAR/player)
The White Sox have never been known for spending money in the draft, and like it or not, spending money (for the most part) acquires better talent. Gordon Beckham has provided the most value (+4.6 WAR) of any homegrown player drafted since 2002. Gordon Beckham has also been labeled an underachiever thus far in his big league career, which illustrates the level of success the White Sox have experienced over the past decade. It gets worse. The legendary Chris Getz is the organization’s second-best position player acquired through the draft since 2002. Chris Getz and his whopping +0.8 WAR through 117 games with the White Sox. Eesh. The light shines a little more brightly now that Chris Sale has firmly broken into the majors, though he may turn out to be nothing more than a set-up man down the road and nothing is percolating down in the minors.
#30) Seattle Mariners — 8.9 WAR (0.45 WAR/player)
With this last-place ranking, it should be no surprise the Seattle Mariners have finished under .500 in six of the past eight seasons. The organization lost numerous picks to free agent compensation, struck out on a couple of position players — Matt Tuiasosopo and Jeff Clement — and also traded away top prospects for big league talent. All three components led to this dead last ranking. Right-hander Doug Fister (+6.4 WAR) is the highlight of this group, with Dustin Ackley being the only other player being with more than two wins. The addition of Jack Zduriencik as GM has helped flush the organization with quality prospects, which will help end the bleeding in Seattle, but it’s not difficult to understand why the Mariners have fallen out of contention in the AL West for the better part of a decade. It’s difficult to build a winning franchise without a constant stream of effective cost-controlled talent.
Comment