2012 Regression Candidates

[Slateman]

Basically, here is it.

Mike Morse in his first year of getting more than 300 plate apperances had a BABIP well beyond the league average. Unless his offense centers around beating out infield grounders, his BABIP will regress towards the mean like every other player ever.

Just because 2010 in nearly 300 PA his BABIP was high has NO bearing on his BABIP number last year. His number is simply unsustainable barring him becoming Ichiro or in his prime Chone Figgins.

No, I get what it means. And it's not sustainable. But that doesn't mean that it will happen this year.

2005 - 258 PA - .341 BABIP
2006 - 228 PA - .298 BABIP (Triple A)
2007 - 324 PA - .349 BABIP (Triple A)
2009 - 472 PA - .364 BABIP (Triple A)
2010 - 293 PA - .330 BABIP
2011 - 575 PA - .344 BABIP

When he gets steady ABs, his BABIP has almost always been high. He strikes out a lot, which brings his average down.

The theory of BABIP is that if it's high, then it's not natural and the player will regress. Of course he will. EVERYONE regresses. It's part of the game.

So to sit there and say that because he had a high BABIP last year, he's due for a regression is a circular arguement. There have been plenty of hitters that had poor BABIP and then rebounded to have great ones the next year. There have been lot's of hitters who maintained a high BABIP for quite a while.

To say that BABIP is the only reason that Morse will regress is a little too dependant on one stat. If you wanted to combine it with K%, OPS and ISO then you would have good arguement. And, frankly, I think BABIP is a better determination of a player's luck than anything else.

[Slateman]

I think Jacoby Ellsbury will regress from last year as well.

[Woy]

Cardinals:
Lance Berkman (still should be good, but last year's numbers will not be matched)
Rafael Furcal (could easily see him not starting for us by mid-season)
Kyle McClellan (was a solid fill-in for Wainwright through the first half of 2011, I doubt he'll be on the roster by the end of 2012)

Rest of League:
Ryan Braun (doesn't have Prince to help him out, and the PED talk will rattle him)
Doug Fister
Vance Worley

[NAHSTE]

And it's not sustainable. But that doesn't mean that it will happen this year.

:joeybats:

[FedEx227]

I got a chuckle out of that too.

[Slateman]

All I'm saying is that to point at what amounts to barely three seasons worth of ABs and say that he's due for a regression because his BABIP is high is too dependant on one stat. Everyone's BABIP will regress at some point. Even speedsters. Everyone's BABIP is unsustainable.

His LD% has gone up. His power has increased.

[FedEx227]

No, everyone's BABIP isn't unsustainable. The unsustainable BABIPs are the ones that are wildly above or below the league average... which is what makes them unsustainable.

This is years upon years of data saying that statistically your batting average of balls in play should hover around a certain number. If for whatever reason one year it doesn't, the chances of it regressing back is very, very probable.

[FedEx227]

His LD% has gone up. His power has increased.

This is another thing too. Not sure you're getting what BABIP tells you. His LD% going up and his BABIP being above league average makes him MORE probable to have a regression.

[Warner2BruceTD]

I get what Slateman is saying, but what he is saying probably is not going to occur.

Morse's BABIP & LD% was in the Cabrera/Votto range last season. Thing is, Miggy & Votto have sustained those averages for years, thus establishing a baseline, while Morse has done it once.

I don't think anybody believes Michael Morse is a hitter the caliber of Miguel Cabrera or Joey Votto, so it is highly unlikely he sustains those numbers. It's not that the numbers are unsustainable per say, it's that they are very unlikely to be sustained by a 30 year old journeyman.

He had a nice season, good for him. He can regress a bit and still be a pretty good player.

[NAHSTE]

I'm 1 for 4 so far on hitters. Morse is a bum, but everyone else is ballin' out. Kemp has three bombs already, and Bonifacio and Castro are hitting .350.

[Primetime]

#smallsamplesizes

[NAHSTE]

Well I don't feel like waiting until July to start talking about baseball, so we're just going to have to deal with the #sss caveat as a given for right now.

[NAHSTE]

Morse hasn't played a fucking game yet, so you're 0 for 4 genius.

.000 BABIP

[SethMode]

I was going to say Worley, but Woy beat me to it. So I'll instead say that Bastardo is almost definitely going to regress (although I don't know if you can call it regression if the player should have never been hitting the level he was beforehand -- I'd say he'll just go back to normal).

[Woy]

Kyle Lohse.

NICE PICK DUDE :leake:

#smallsamplesizes