Tweet
The trade deadline is more than two months away. However, with all the parity we’ve seen in the past two decades, most teams will still be buyers come July 31. Few teams outside of the Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres are assured to be sellers. This could be an indication there could be as many buyers trading with other buyers as there will be buyers trading with sellers.
This year at the deadline there should be plenty of closers who will be traded, such as Joel Hanrahan, Brandon League and Huston Street, provided they are all healthy and still pitching well.
But if you are looking for big names, here are five who I think will be moved in significant trades between now and the deadline.
1. Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers general manager Doug Melvin shocked the baseball world back in December 2010 when he acquired Zack Greinke from the Royals in exchange for Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi. Contract negotiations between the Brewers and Greinke’s agent, Casey Close, have been professional, but there is a significant gap in terms of length and dollars in their talks. If the Brewers aren’t in the pennant race come July, Greinke will be traded.
That doesn’t mean the Brewers won't sign Greinke back as a free agent after he tests the market because he is very happy in Milwaukee, as his home/road splits this year indicate (3-0, 1.30 ERA/2-1, 4.91). The Brewers know they’re not going to get the same level package they gave the Royals in exchange for Greinke, but they will at least get two significant prospects and a throw-in. The only teams that legitimately will be bidding for Greinke will be the Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins and maybe the New York Yankees.
2. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs
Ryan Dempster has a no-trade clause, but that won’t stop him from being dealt before the deadline. He’s sold his house in Chicago and realizes that at this point in his career he belongs in a pennant race and pitching meaningful games in October. Cubs executives have told me they hope to sign Matt Garza long-term rather than trade him but have not commented on Dempster, except to praise his leadership and abilities on the mound.
Due to his age (35) and where the Cubs are in the standings, a Dempster deal to a contender for prospects is the best long-term move for the team. The no-trade clause only means that he will essentially get to decide where he goes. He’s a guy who adapts to things easily, so my guess is he’ll be open to most contending teams. Teams who will be interested in Dempster include the Miami Marlins, Cleveland Indians, Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox.
3. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
Manager Bobby Valentine says there is room at the major league level for the trio of Adrian Gonzalez, Will Middlebrooks and Kevin Youkilis. Moving Gonzalez to right field is a smart move in the short term to allow Middlebrooks, Youkilis, Gonzalez and David Ortiz to all stay in the Sox's lineup. However, the key is to allow Youkilis to show other GMs that he's healthy and that his abilities have not declined over the past couple of years. So the Sox could try shuffling the three around or they could just make the right move and trade Youkilis.
A deal would allow Gonzalez, one of the league’s best defensive first basemen, to remain at his best position and let Middlebrooks, the long-term third baseman, continue his development in a pennant race. The Red Sox are in desperate need of pitching, and Youkilis is the player who can fetch a quality arm in return.
A number of teams will show interest in Youkilis’ defensive versatility and RBI production. The Phillies could use him at first base until Ryan Howard returns and then move Youkilis to third base and Placido Polanco to second if Chase Utley cannot return 100 percent. Both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Indians also would view him as an offensive upgrade at third or first base. Regardless of position, Youkilis would be a huge addition to the middle of the lineup for either team. Other interested teams include the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Marlins, who sent the disappointing Gaby Sanchez to Triple-A.
4. Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros
Astros GM Jeff Luhnow doesn’t want to trade Wandy Rodriguez because he’s clearly the team’s best starting pitcher. However, considering his age (33) and the fact that the team is in the middle of a rebuilding process and moving to the AL West next year, Rodriguez is the one player he should trade by July 31, that is, if Luhnow is offered the right long-term package.
Rodriguez is 3-4 this year with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.094 WHIP. Since 2008, his ERA has been in the low to mid-3.00s, which shows he's reliable. He’s left-handed with great deception due to the multiple angles from which he can throw. He’s a solid No. 3 starter for a contending team, and although some AL East scouts questioned this past offseason whether he could handle the AL East, several have changed their stance after watching his first nine starts during which he’s allowed two runs or less in six of them. He’s pitched well against contenders such as the Dodgers and Reds. Interested teams include the Indians, Kansas City Royals and Marlins, as well as all the AL East teams outside of the Tampa Bay Rays.
5. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
The Twins are 14-27 and nine games back in the AL Central, and GM Terry Ryan knows he has to get younger and rebuild the pitching staff. He has several trade pieces, including center fielder Denard Span, but his best commodity could be first baseman Justin Morneau.
After being sidelined with concussion issues for most of the past two years, Morneau has already spent some time on the disabled list this season with a sore wrist. However, he is slugging .490, which shows you that his power is still there. If he can stay healthy and produce, several teams will be interested. Sure, trade partners will be wary of Morneau’s health issues, but they also remember he’s a four-time All-Star who has won two Silver Slugger awards and the 2006 AL MVP. Morneau has plenty of time to show he’s healthy and still a force.
Interested teams include the Blue Jays, who were so frustrated with first baseman Adam Lind that they designated him for assignment and signed the venerable Vladimir Guerrero to a Triple-A contract. Other interested parties include the Indians, Marlins and Dodgers, who all could use upgrades at first base.
This year at the deadline there should be plenty of closers who will be traded, such as Joel Hanrahan, Brandon League and Huston Street, provided they are all healthy and still pitching well.
But if you are looking for big names, here are five who I think will be moved in significant trades between now and the deadline.
1. Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers general manager Doug Melvin shocked the baseball world back in December 2010 when he acquired Zack Greinke from the Royals in exchange for Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi. Contract negotiations between the Brewers and Greinke’s agent, Casey Close, have been professional, but there is a significant gap in terms of length and dollars in their talks. If the Brewers aren’t in the pennant race come July, Greinke will be traded.
That doesn’t mean the Brewers won't sign Greinke back as a free agent after he tests the market because he is very happy in Milwaukee, as his home/road splits this year indicate (3-0, 1.30 ERA/2-1, 4.91). The Brewers know they’re not going to get the same level package they gave the Royals in exchange for Greinke, but they will at least get two significant prospects and a throw-in. The only teams that legitimately will be bidding for Greinke will be the Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins and maybe the New York Yankees.
2. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs
Ryan Dempster has a no-trade clause, but that won’t stop him from being dealt before the deadline. He’s sold his house in Chicago and realizes that at this point in his career he belongs in a pennant race and pitching meaningful games in October. Cubs executives have told me they hope to sign Matt Garza long-term rather than trade him but have not commented on Dempster, except to praise his leadership and abilities on the mound.
Due to his age (35) and where the Cubs are in the standings, a Dempster deal to a contender for prospects is the best long-term move for the team. The no-trade clause only means that he will essentially get to decide where he goes. He’s a guy who adapts to things easily, so my guess is he’ll be open to most contending teams. Teams who will be interested in Dempster include the Miami Marlins, Cleveland Indians, Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox.
3. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
Manager Bobby Valentine says there is room at the major league level for the trio of Adrian Gonzalez, Will Middlebrooks and Kevin Youkilis. Moving Gonzalez to right field is a smart move in the short term to allow Middlebrooks, Youkilis, Gonzalez and David Ortiz to all stay in the Sox's lineup. However, the key is to allow Youkilis to show other GMs that he's healthy and that his abilities have not declined over the past couple of years. So the Sox could try shuffling the three around or they could just make the right move and trade Youkilis.
A deal would allow Gonzalez, one of the league’s best defensive first basemen, to remain at his best position and let Middlebrooks, the long-term third baseman, continue his development in a pennant race. The Red Sox are in desperate need of pitching, and Youkilis is the player who can fetch a quality arm in return.
A number of teams will show interest in Youkilis’ defensive versatility and RBI production. The Phillies could use him at first base until Ryan Howard returns and then move Youkilis to third base and Placido Polanco to second if Chase Utley cannot return 100 percent. Both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Indians also would view him as an offensive upgrade at third or first base. Regardless of position, Youkilis would be a huge addition to the middle of the lineup for either team. Other interested teams include the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Marlins, who sent the disappointing Gaby Sanchez to Triple-A.
4. Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros
Astros GM Jeff Luhnow doesn’t want to trade Wandy Rodriguez because he’s clearly the team’s best starting pitcher. However, considering his age (33) and the fact that the team is in the middle of a rebuilding process and moving to the AL West next year, Rodriguez is the one player he should trade by July 31, that is, if Luhnow is offered the right long-term package.
Rodriguez is 3-4 this year with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.094 WHIP. Since 2008, his ERA has been in the low to mid-3.00s, which shows he's reliable. He’s left-handed with great deception due to the multiple angles from which he can throw. He’s a solid No. 3 starter for a contending team, and although some AL East scouts questioned this past offseason whether he could handle the AL East, several have changed their stance after watching his first nine starts during which he’s allowed two runs or less in six of them. He’s pitched well against contenders such as the Dodgers and Reds. Interested teams include the Indians, Kansas City Royals and Marlins, as well as all the AL East teams outside of the Tampa Bay Rays.
5. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
The Twins are 14-27 and nine games back in the AL Central, and GM Terry Ryan knows he has to get younger and rebuild the pitching staff. He has several trade pieces, including center fielder Denard Span, but his best commodity could be first baseman Justin Morneau.
After being sidelined with concussion issues for most of the past two years, Morneau has already spent some time on the disabled list this season with a sore wrist. However, he is slugging .490, which shows you that his power is still there. If he can stay healthy and produce, several teams will be interested. Sure, trade partners will be wary of Morneau’s health issues, but they also remember he’s a four-time All-Star who has won two Silver Slugger awards and the 2006 AL MVP. Morneau has plenty of time to show he’s healthy and still a force.
Interested teams include the Blue Jays, who were so frustrated with first baseman Adam Lind that they designated him for assignment and signed the venerable Vladimir Guerrero to a Triple-A contract. Other interested parties include the Indians, Marlins and Dodgers, who all could use upgrades at first base.
.
Comment