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We're now 30 days away from the non-waiver trade deadline and I'm checking out where all the teams stand now, and where they may stand come 4 weeks from now. Reports say teams that most expect to be sellers are a bit hesitant to throw in the towel at the moment, so the picture should begin to settle within the next two weeks depending on performance.
Also, don't forget about the playoff format changes. Each league has a 2nd wild card spot and they end up playing the first wild card team in a one-game playoff to see who advances.
Starting with the AL…
EAST
As of right now, none of the 5 teams should be considered classic sellers. While the Yankees have a 5 game lead, the rest of the division is divided by just 2.5 games and at the moment, that's the 2nd wild card spot.
Baltimore is 5 over .500, Boston and Tampa are 4 over .500 while Toronto is just 2 over. Still, after Toronto plays 12 games against CWS, CLE, NYY and BOS, they finish the month with 8 games against the lowly Athletics, the average Tigers and the shitty Mariners.
BUYERS - Everyone
CENTRAL
Here we go with a division a bit more settled. The White Sox and Indians are the only two above .500 with 2.5 games between them for the division lead. The Tigers, a spring training favorite to be the best in the league, are 2 under 500, but only 4 games back from Chicago. There's no way they won't be looking to improve this month via trade.
Then, we get to the have-nots. Kansas City is 6 GB (and 6 under 500) with the absolute worst home record in MLB (14-23). They will not be buyers unless they go on an uncharacteristic winning streak between now and the middle of the month.
The Twins are one of the worst teams this year so they will definitely be sellers.
BUYERS - White Sox, Indians, Tigers
SELLERS - Royals, Twins
TRADE CANDIDATES
SP Francisco Liriano, Twins
OF Josh Willingham Twins
RP Jonathan Broxton, Royals
WEST
The Rangers are the best team in baseball with 50 wins already and the best run differential by far (+102, compared to NYY's +59). Reports have Texas scouting the top two available pitchers, Greinke and Hamels. Meanwhile, the Angels as of today are the #1 Wild Card team, but only by a 0.5 game over Baltimore. They will almost definitely look to add a bullpen arm or two and hope Pujols continues waking up while
over Trumbo and Trout.
Oakland is reportedly already in seller mode according to Buster Olney.
The Mariners are in the same boat as Oakland and together are one of the few willing to move guys right now.
BUYERS - Rangers, Angels
SELLERS - Athletics, Mariners
TRADE CANDIDATES
SP Brandon McCarthy, Athletics
RP Brandon League, Mariners
SP Jason Vargas, Mariners
SP Kevin Millwood, Mariners
CF Peter Bourjos, Angels
RP Grant Balfour, Athletics
EAST
This division has been all kinds of screwy considering the Nationals and Mets are #1 and #2 with Miami under .500 and Philly having a lost year.
The Nationals, crazily, have the best record in the league and would be the 3rd best team in all of baseball by record. The problem is everyone believes they will shut down Stephen Strasburg sometime in August. There's no way they can realistically replace him and get the same quality, but they'll have to try. They will also likely add, or try to add some kind of bat. Not that he's a bat, but MLBTR says they're interested in Posednik.
The Mets are 2.5 GB and 7 over 500. If they can keep it up, they will definitely add a bullpen arm. They have had preliminary talks about Huston Street (strange since he hated his time playing for Bob Geren, the current Mets bench coach).
The Braves are 3.5 GB and 5 over 500, definitely will be buyers. They just signed Ben Sheets to a minor league deal. Ken Rosenthal reports they would be willing to move Minor, Teheran or Delgado if they feel they can get a key starting pitcher. Last year, they were not willing to move one of their prospect arms.
The Marlins have been terrible considering expectations and the money they spent in the off-season. They're 7.5 GB and 3 under 500. Despite that, Lauria considers them contenders and they reportedly are telling teams they're not looking to shed guys. I wonder how long that lasts.
The Phillies have been terrible thanks to injuries and jut shoddy play. 10 GB and 8 under 500, they just got Utley back this week while Cliff Lee STILL has a goose egg for wins. While a 'firesale' seems unlikely, they moved Jim Thome this week and have reportedly begun listening to teams over pending free agent LHP Cole Hamels. They could also listen on Shane Victorino if they continue down this stretch. Still, they expect to get Doc Halladay and Ryan Howard back soon, so they may not go Marlins post-world series style selling yet.
BUYERS - Nationals, Mets, Braves……Marlins
SELLERS - Phillies
TRADE CANDIDATES
SP Cole Hamels, Phillies
OF Shane Victorino, Phillies
CENTRAL
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are 1 & 2, split by just a game. The Pirates are the hottest NL team right now, 7-3 in their last 10. Behind them are the Cardinals, 3.5 GB. The Reds may have interest in Victorino, the Pirates in Vernon Wells (even though he says he doesn't want to waive his NTC) while the Cardinals are looking for starting and bullpen help.
Speaking of someone who could offer starting help, the Brewers are 7 under .500 and 8 GB in the division. They figure to offer one of the biggest prizes near the deadline in Zack Greinke. They are also fielding calls on Francisco Rodriguez, John Axford, Jose Veras, Randy Wolf, George Kottaras and Shaun Marcum.
The Astros are nasty bad. They're so bad, they can't even get rid of an overpriced veteran who serves them no purpose. Nothing is going their way. They would gladly be sellers…if their players would let them….but for real, they could say fuck off Carlos Lee and deal him to one of the 15 teams he cannot say no to (would he refuse to report?).
The Cubs are the worst team in the majors this year so they'll definitely look to unload some guys including Ryan Dempster.
BUYERS - Reds, Pirates, Cardinals
SELLERS - Brewers, Astros, Cubs
TRADE CANDIDATES
SP Zack Greinke, Brewers
SP Matt Garza, Cubs
SP Shaun Marcum, Brewers
OF Carlos Lee, Astros
SP Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
SP Randy Wolf, Brewers
RP Francisco Rodriguez, Brewers
SP Ryan Demptser, Cubs
RP Carlos Marmol, Cubs
RP Brett Myers, Astros
WEST
The Giants and Dodgers are within a game of one another for the division lead. Following them up are the DBacks, just 4 GB.
San Fran would want to add a bat but don't want to do it at risk of their defense according to Ken Rosenthal. It's unlikely they make a move for a starter, so it seems offense/bullpen are what they're looking for this month.
The Dodgers have a ton of money at their disposal thanks to the sale and that means money is no limit on what they can do. Vernon Wells is a possibility if he would accept a trade, or Victorino, too if Carlos Lee is persistent about not wanting to go to LA. Right now, they may be the favorite for Ryan Dempster. Overall, they want a hitter, a starter and a lefty reliever. The point…the Dodgers will not sit back.
Arizona is on the periphery of the bullpen market at the moment. They have plenty of rotation depth which leads some to think they could move a guy like Joe Saunders. However, they've also experienced some injuries so they are less likely to sacrifice depth to treat another area.
The Rockies and Padres are terrible and definite sellers. The big fish for the Padres to move is All-Star reliever Huston Street. They could also move Chase Headley and get big interest for Luke Gregerson but there is some doubt whether they're willing to move him.
The Rockies know there's interest in Michael Cuddyer but they have publicly said they won't move him (he's relatively cheap) nor Carlos Gonzalez for that matter. So, it seems like they may only be of service by moving lesser guys like a Marco Scutaro.
BUYERS - Giants, Dodgers, Diamondbacks
SELLERS - Padres, Rockies
TRADE CANDIDATES
RP Huston Street, Padres
2B Marco Scutaro, Rockies
RP Rafael Betancourt, Rockies
Also, don't forget about the playoff format changes. Each league has a 2nd wild card spot and they end up playing the first wild card team in a one-game playoff to see who advances.
Starting with the AL…
EAST
As of right now, none of the 5 teams should be considered classic sellers. While the Yankees have a 5 game lead, the rest of the division is divided by just 2.5 games and at the moment, that's the 2nd wild card spot.
Baltimore is 5 over .500, Boston and Tampa are 4 over .500 while Toronto is just 2 over. Still, after Toronto plays 12 games against CWS, CLE, NYY and BOS, they finish the month with 8 games against the lowly Athletics, the average Tigers and the shitty Mariners.
BUYERS - Everyone
CENTRAL
Here we go with a division a bit more settled. The White Sox and Indians are the only two above .500 with 2.5 games between them for the division lead. The Tigers, a spring training favorite to be the best in the league, are 2 under 500, but only 4 games back from Chicago. There's no way they won't be looking to improve this month via trade.
Then, we get to the have-nots. Kansas City is 6 GB (and 6 under 500) with the absolute worst home record in MLB (14-23). They will not be buyers unless they go on an uncharacteristic winning streak between now and the middle of the month.
The Twins are one of the worst teams this year so they will definitely be sellers.
BUYERS - White Sox, Indians, Tigers
SELLERS - Royals, Twins
TRADE CANDIDATES
SP Francisco Liriano, Twins
OF Josh Willingham Twins
RP Jonathan Broxton, Royals
WEST
The Rangers are the best team in baseball with 50 wins already and the best run differential by far (+102, compared to NYY's +59). Reports have Texas scouting the top two available pitchers, Greinke and Hamels. Meanwhile, the Angels as of today are the #1 Wild Card team, but only by a 0.5 game over Baltimore. They will almost definitely look to add a bullpen arm or two and hope Pujols continues waking up while
over Trumbo and Trout. Oakland is reportedly already in seller mode according to Buster Olney.
The Mariners are in the same boat as Oakland and together are one of the few willing to move guys right now.
BUYERS - Rangers, Angels
SELLERS - Athletics, Mariners
TRADE CANDIDATES
SP Brandon McCarthy, Athletics
RP Brandon League, Mariners
SP Jason Vargas, Mariners
SP Kevin Millwood, Mariners
CF Peter Bourjos, Angels
RP Grant Balfour, Athletics
EAST
This division has been all kinds of screwy considering the Nationals and Mets are #1 and #2 with Miami under .500 and Philly having a lost year.
The Nationals, crazily, have the best record in the league and would be the 3rd best team in all of baseball by record. The problem is everyone believes they will shut down Stephen Strasburg sometime in August. There's no way they can realistically replace him and get the same quality, but they'll have to try. They will also likely add, or try to add some kind of bat. Not that he's a bat, but MLBTR says they're interested in Posednik.
The Mets are 2.5 GB and 7 over 500. If they can keep it up, they will definitely add a bullpen arm. They have had preliminary talks about Huston Street (strange since he hated his time playing for Bob Geren, the current Mets bench coach).
The Braves are 3.5 GB and 5 over 500, definitely will be buyers. They just signed Ben Sheets to a minor league deal. Ken Rosenthal reports they would be willing to move Minor, Teheran or Delgado if they feel they can get a key starting pitcher. Last year, they were not willing to move one of their prospect arms.
The Marlins have been terrible considering expectations and the money they spent in the off-season. They're 7.5 GB and 3 under 500. Despite that, Lauria considers them contenders and they reportedly are telling teams they're not looking to shed guys. I wonder how long that lasts.
The Phillies have been terrible thanks to injuries and jut shoddy play. 10 GB and 8 under 500, they just got Utley back this week while Cliff Lee STILL has a goose egg for wins. While a 'firesale' seems unlikely, they moved Jim Thome this week and have reportedly begun listening to teams over pending free agent LHP Cole Hamels. They could also listen on Shane Victorino if they continue down this stretch. Still, they expect to get Doc Halladay and Ryan Howard back soon, so they may not go Marlins post-world series style selling yet.
BUYERS - Nationals, Mets, Braves……Marlins
SELLERS - Phillies
TRADE CANDIDATES
SP Cole Hamels, Phillies
OF Shane Victorino, Phillies
CENTRAL
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are 1 & 2, split by just a game. The Pirates are the hottest NL team right now, 7-3 in their last 10. Behind them are the Cardinals, 3.5 GB. The Reds may have interest in Victorino, the Pirates in Vernon Wells (even though he says he doesn't want to waive his NTC) while the Cardinals are looking for starting and bullpen help.
Speaking of someone who could offer starting help, the Brewers are 7 under .500 and 8 GB in the division. They figure to offer one of the biggest prizes near the deadline in Zack Greinke. They are also fielding calls on Francisco Rodriguez, John Axford, Jose Veras, Randy Wolf, George Kottaras and Shaun Marcum.
The Astros are nasty bad. They're so bad, they can't even get rid of an overpriced veteran who serves them no purpose. Nothing is going their way. They would gladly be sellers…if their players would let them….but for real, they could say fuck off Carlos Lee and deal him to one of the 15 teams he cannot say no to (would he refuse to report?).
The Cubs are the worst team in the majors this year so they'll definitely look to unload some guys including Ryan Dempster.
BUYERS - Reds, Pirates, Cardinals
SELLERS - Brewers, Astros, Cubs
TRADE CANDIDATES
SP Zack Greinke, Brewers
SP Matt Garza, Cubs
SP Shaun Marcum, Brewers
OF Carlos Lee, Astros
SP Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
SP Randy Wolf, Brewers
RP Francisco Rodriguez, Brewers
SP Ryan Demptser, Cubs
RP Carlos Marmol, Cubs
RP Brett Myers, Astros
WEST
The Giants and Dodgers are within a game of one another for the division lead. Following them up are the DBacks, just 4 GB.
San Fran would want to add a bat but don't want to do it at risk of their defense according to Ken Rosenthal. It's unlikely they make a move for a starter, so it seems offense/bullpen are what they're looking for this month.
The Dodgers have a ton of money at their disposal thanks to the sale and that means money is no limit on what they can do. Vernon Wells is a possibility if he would accept a trade, or Victorino, too if Carlos Lee is persistent about not wanting to go to LA. Right now, they may be the favorite for Ryan Dempster. Overall, they want a hitter, a starter and a lefty reliever. The point…the Dodgers will not sit back.
Arizona is on the periphery of the bullpen market at the moment. They have plenty of rotation depth which leads some to think they could move a guy like Joe Saunders. However, they've also experienced some injuries so they are less likely to sacrifice depth to treat another area.
The Rockies and Padres are terrible and definite sellers. The big fish for the Padres to move is All-Star reliever Huston Street. They could also move Chase Headley and get big interest for Luke Gregerson but there is some doubt whether they're willing to move him.
The Rockies know there's interest in Michael Cuddyer but they have publicly said they won't move him (he's relatively cheap) nor Carlos Gonzalez for that matter. So, it seems like they may only be of service by moving lesser guys like a Marco Scutaro.
BUYERS - Giants, Dodgers, Diamondbacks
SELLERS - Padres, Rockies
TRADE CANDIDATES
RP Huston Street, Padres
2B Marco Scutaro, Rockies
RP Rafael Betancourt, Rockies
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