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As the song says about the Christmas season, it’s the most wonderful time of the year. For me, this is true about baseball even though the last season ended over a month ago and the new one is still months away. Other than the post-season this is most excited I get about the sport. I can’t wait to find out who’s going into the Hall of Fame. We’ll have the real answers shortly. For now, this is my two cents about what I think will happen with the balloting, and in some cases what should happen. I won’t examine all of the cases individually, but they’ll all be mentioned.
This is a much stronger ballot than last year’s, but it also comes with more ethical dilemmas. With this class, we’re forced to confront the steroid issue in a more direct manner than ever before. In addition to Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro, both already on the ballot, there’s newcomers Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa. All three men carry numbers that not only would normally mean they’ll be no-brainer inductees, but arguably rank them among the absolute best players to ever step on the diamond. In addition to steroid allegations, none of these guys seems to be particularly liked by the people who vote for the Hall of Fame.
Aside from those guys, there are a number of guys whose support has been growing over the years, such as Jeff Bagwell, Jack Morris and Tim Raines. We also have a couple newcomers whose qualifications have been heavily debated over the last year or so (Biggio and Schilling). Hmm…
Let’s get rolling.
To remain on the ballot going forward a player must be named on at least 5% of the ballots. These players will probably not make that minimum: Jeff Cirillo, Royce Clayton, Jeff Conine, Reggie Sanders, Aaron Sele, Mike Stanton, Todd Walker, Rondell White, Woody Williams.
These players may manage to stay on the ballot, but are no real threat to ever get into the Hall: Sandy Alomar Jr., Steve Finley, Shawn Green, Ryan Klesko, Don Mattingly, Bernie Williams.
There are players listed below I don’t think will ever make it, either. However, these are first timers who have cases I find interesting.
The rest of the ballot (alphabetically):
Jeff Bagwell
Bagwell presents us with one of the more interesting cases on the ballot. He was one of the game’s very best players for roughly a decade. He snared an NL Rookie of the Year and an MVP in the process. The raw numbers are very good, but not necessarily HOF caliber for a first basemen: 2314 H, 449 HR, 1529 RBI, 202 SB. It’s in the metrics where his case is made. They’re eye-popping: .408 OBP, .540 SLG, .948 OPS, 149 OPS+. Indeed, a number of people have him ranked as one of the five or seven best to ever to play his position. I once said I don’t think he’s HOF worthy. I’ve come around on that. Jeff Bagwell should be in the Hall of Fame. However he will not be, at least not this year. He had the misfortune of having a body builder’s physique during the steroid era. There has been some speculation that Bags is a juicer. Without anything more than his muscular build to go on, the voters have been softer on him than some others and he managed to get 41.7% of the votes in his first year on the ballot and a healthy bump up to 56% last year. Expect a leap into the 60s, but he may still be a year or two away from induction.
Craig Biggio
Making one of the oddest transitions in baseball history, Biggio was a catcher who played some outfield the first few years of his career before become a full time second baseman who would go on to win 4 Gold Gloves in his new spot. He’s also the only player to ever be an All-Star both behind the plate and at second. Like most, it’s his bat that has him in serious consideration for induction. He was double-machine, ranking fifth all time with 668. He also stole plenty of bases and hit the occasional homer. The number that jumps off the page is his career total of 3060 hits. The way he got to that number seems to make him one of the dreaded Cs – a compiler. After all, he didn’t get the magical 3000th hit until he was 41 years old, his last season in the majors. He never led the league in any batting category other than doubles (three times), unless you count getting hit by pitches which he did five times and is second all-time with 285. He never got 200 hits despite constantly being near the very top of the league in at bats and overall plate appearances. He also never hit more than 26 home runs or had more than 88 RBI. His career BA of .281 is among the lowest of the 3000 hit club, as he only broke .300 four times in 20 seasons with just 2 top 10 finishes. His metrics are good, but don’t inspire eyeballs to pop out. A career 112 OPS+ attests to that. On top of that, he was rarely, if ever the best player on his team and many rank him behind Roberto Alomar and Jeff Kent whose careers overlap with his at the same position. Still, there is that magical number: 3000. Also, even if he is behind Alomar and Kent, there are plenty who place him among the 12 best to ever play second base. I think that will likely be enough to carry the day for Biggio, making him an inductee after just one time on the ballot.
Barry Bonds
The numbers speak for themselves. Instead of rehashing all of them, just say that the only people who have comparable numbers are named Ruth, Aaron and Mays. For Bonds it’s all about whether or not people will vote for a guy not only suspected of steroid use but was actually convicted by a grand jury of, at the very least, working pretty hard to keep it a secret whether he used or not (obstruction of justice). In reality, it’s not even a secret that he used, just whether it was intentional, or not. He admitted to “unknowingly” using them by trusting that what his trainer was giving him was on the up and up. What makes Bonds’ case even stickier is when he allegedly began to use. By most accounts this was at the very earliest, after the 1998 season. Bonds had always been the surly type that baseball writers didn’t like, but by that point they conceded he was already a sure-fire Hall of Famer. Not only had he joined the 30-30 club a few times over (at least 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in the same season), he was one of the few to make the 40-40 club. In fact, he had become the only member of the 400-400 club. He would eventually reach over 500 in both homers and steals, the only player to accomplish that feat. He consistently hit .300 and often led the league in OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+. He also had already won 3 MVPs. In 2001 he began a stretch of seemingly superhuman feats beginning with a record 73 homers that year and even more astronomical rate numbers. He would go on a run of four straight years with at least a .328 BA, 1.278 OPS and .515 OBP, including an unheard of .609 in ’04 (he drew a record 232 walks that year) and an OPS+ not below an even less heard of 231. He won the MVP all four years bringing his career total to 7. Is the fact he was so good before we think he started using enough to get him in? Do the ridiculous numbers after that point in time help or hurt his cause? It’s hard to say how many votes I think he’ll get but I’m fairly certain enough voters will decide to “send a message” by not voting for him and keep him out, especially given the fact Bonds was never one to “play nice” with the media.
Roger Clemens
If Bonds’ numbers place him among the best handful of players in the game’s history then Clemens is his pitching counterpart. At the time he recorded his 350th win, Warren Spahn was the only other post World War II pitcher to have as many victories (Greg Maddux would shortly join this exclusive club). He was no mere compiler, either. His mantle proves it with 7 Cy Young Awards and a rarity for a pitcher: an MVP. He also won the ERA title 7 times and is 3rd all-time in strikeouts. Also like Bonds, many believe there is a clear line of demarcation noting the point at which he became other-worldly. That appears to be between the 1996 and 1997 seasons when the Boston Red Sox let him become a free agent without much of a fight, believing his best days to have been long behind him. Clemens promptly showed up in Toronto and won back-to-back Cy Young Awards, giving him five to go with the three he won in Bean Town. He would add one with the Yankees and one in the NL with the Astros at ages 38 and 41, respectively. Also like Bonds, Clemens was indicted by a grand jury on suspicions of having lied to them about his steroid use. Where he differs from the slugger is that he was exonerated on all counts against him. It’s not necessarily the case that the voters believe him any more than they do Bonds. Naysayers note that the government just didn’t have enough evidence and didn’t get the testimony they expected from witnesses such as fellow pitcher and admitted user Andy Pettitte. Clemens has also grown more and more ornery with the media over the years, but it’s nice to have that feather of acquittal in his cap. Again, because of that whole “making a statement” deal, I’m not sure Clemens will be elected to the Hall this time around. I won’t be surprised either way it goes. Since I’m predicting I’ll say he comes up short. It’s possible he comes up way short. In any event, I think he’ll manage more votes than Bonds.
Julio Franco
Franco is one of those guys who played so long, people started to believe he was Hall of Famer mostly because he’d been around so long. After all, he must’ve been one of greats if he managed still be a solid at the plate near age 50, right? Years earlier he did have a stretch where he was among the best contact hitters in the game, finishing in the top in BA four times and winning a batting title in 1991. He finished with a career BA of .298 despite playing until he was 48 years old. He even batted .309 at age 45, the last season in which he would get at least 300 AB. Aside from that, there really isn’t much to go on. He was largely a singles hitter who stole bases early in his career, but didn’t run much after that ’91 campaign. This is a bit problematic since he played another 16 years. Despite the high BA and 23 years of service he didn’t get very close to 3000 hits (2586). He played multiple positions but wasn’t amazing anyone regardless of where he took the field. The Hall of Pretty Good seems to be his destination. Look for him to get enough votes to stay on the ballot, but that’s about it.
Roberto Hernandez
Hernandez is one of two new closers on this ballot. For roughly a decade, from 1992 to 2002, he was one of the game’s best, finishing in the top 10 in saves eight times while posting ERAs under 3.00 six times and an ERA+ of 150 or better eight times. From then on, he was a setup man with varying degrees of success from season to season. I don’t think he gets in, but he may surprise some with how much support he gets. I’ll hazard a guess and say about 15%.
Kenny Lofton
Kenny Lofton hit for average (.299 career BA), was a dominant base stealer early on (622 career swipes is 15th all time, he led the league five times) and played a fabulous center field (four Gold Gloves). He was also a key cog on some really good Cleveland Indians teams. After leaving there during the 2000 season, he bounced around through 2007 and was merely okay. His best stretch, those Cleveland days, had him as a borderline HOF candidate. The rest of his career wouldn’t approach even this status. Don’t be surprised to see him get 20% of the vote. However, I think he’s destined to hover in the 15-25% range for his entire 15 years on the ballot.
Edgar Martinez
If ever there really was a “professional hitter”, Edgar Martinez was it. He became an everyday player in 1990 but rarely took the field after 1994 (he played until 2004). From then on, he was the Seattle Mariners daily DH. As such he’s put up some impressive numbers. He ranks in the top 70 all time in doubles, walks, runs created, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ and has a .312 career batting average (won two batting titles). Considering there are over 200 players in the Hall, top 70 in any category is nothing to sneeze at. However, the knock on Martinez is that he didn’t play the field. In over 2000 career games he had to use a glove other than a batting glove in fewer than 600, less than 30% of his time in the bigs. How do you vote on such a guy? We could say he is the best career DH of all time, but how big is the class you’re comparing him to? Not very. This has reflected poorly on his candidacy. Being a bad fielder is something that’s historically been overlooked, but hardly ever playing the field is another matter. His offensive production says he should be in. His brief voter history says he will not, at least not yet. In his first three years on the ballot, he’s hovered in the mid-30% range (36.5% last year). Maybe he inches closer to 40%, but I don’t anticipate anything more.
Fred McGriff
The Crime Dog presents another interesting case. For a decade he was one of the most feared left handed power hitters in the game. However, it didn’t quite translate into HOF caliber numbers. His “counting” stats fall just below the benchmarks that make voters giddy and his metrics aren’t gaudy enough to get the stat-geeks all worked up. McGriff didn’t win many awards either. He has an All Star game MVP and 3 Silver Slugger awards over a 19 year career. He seems destined for the Hall of Very Good, not quite Cooperstown. Expect him to be in that 25% range when the voting comes out.
Mark McGwire
If you’re reading this you already know that Big Mac probably isn’t getting in the HOF due to his association with steroids. More interesting to me is that I’m not so sure he should be in even if roids never entered the picture. He hit a ton of homers and drew a ton of walks giving him an excellent OBP and SLG but didn’t seem to do much else. Some would argue that’s enough. I don’t think so. It’s remarkable that he hit 50+ homers four times including 65 or better twice. He hit 40 or more two other times. He finished in the top 5 in that category 9 times (one other top 10 finish) and is 10th overall yet never won an MVP and only three Silver Sluggers. One reason is despite playing in a hitter’s era, he only hit .300 once in any season in which he had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Another is that lots of those homers seem to be empty shots (solo blasts) or, better yet, speak to the idea he had no other way of driving runs in. In general, guys that hit a fair number of homeruns are ranked all time within 10 or 20 spots in homers and RBI. For instance, Fred McGriff is 26th in homers and 42nd in RBI. Edgar Martinez is 123rd and 124th, respectively. Jeff Bagwell, 36th and 46th. Like I mentioned, Mac is 10th in homeruns. However, he’s only 67th in RBI. That’s a discrepancy going the wrong way. It seems, to me at least, that for a guy with a high OBP, lots of homers and the 8th best SLG of all time he didn’t help his teams as much as you would think. WAR (wins above replacement) seems to bear that out as he only finished top 10 in that category 3 times (According to the formula used by baseball-reference.com). Now add back in the steroids which, even if they don’t help you hit homers (which I disagree with, by the way) undoubtedly helped him remain healthy enough to play since he suffered from a number of injuries including a normally debilitating back problem. One would think he would’ve gotten a little bump in votes since he owned up to the roid use before taking the St. Louis Cardinals’ hitting coach job last year but his voting percentage actually went down form the year before (19.8% to 19.5%). Maybe he busts 20% this year.
Jose Mesa
Here is our other new closer. Mesa actually spent the early part of his career as a below average starter with an ERA consistently well over 4.00, a WHIP above 1.400. In 1994, the Indians made him a reliever. In ’95, he became the closer and posted a 1.13 ERA with a league-leading 46 saves. After that he was sporadic, but did have an interesting five year stretch from 2001 through ’05 where he would finish in the top 10 in saves 4 more times (7 times overall). This is his best run and is too short for a true HOFer. However, he may get some support for his 321 career saves, only 5 behind Hernandez. Still, I don’t think it will be enough to keep him on the ballot.
Jack Morris
Morris is in a precarious spot concerning his HOF candidacy. He’s been on the Bert Blyleven path to enshrinement, getting a few more votes and plenty of articles written about how he should be voted in every year. This is his 14th season on the ballot which gives him only two more chances including this one. However, he’s hitting a snag Blyleven didn’t. Starting this year there will be a slew of big name high quality starting pitchers on the ballot. New to the ballot this time around are Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling and David Wells. 2014 will see sure fire first balloter Greg Maddux, one of his rotation mates and fellow 300 game winner Tom Glavine as well as Mike Mussina. Any or all of these guys could possibly take votes away from Morris. There are also a bevy of Hall-worthy position players in both years. The good thing for Morris is his take of the vote has been steadily climbing. He was named on two thirds of last year’s ballots. This means he needs less than a 10% increase for induction. Working in his favor, here are that votes lost by the controversial Clemens may wind up in Morris’ lap. It also helps that Bert Blyleven was inducted two years ago, mainly on the strength of similar media and sabermetric campaigns supporting his candidacy. In addition, Morris really was considered one of his era’s best pitchers during his playing days, despite never winning a Cy Young, while Blyleven was always considered good, not great until recently. Morris also has some legendary post-season performances to draw on. This is a hard case to predict but I say he gets a healthy jump and inches across the finish line in the mid to high 70s.
Dale Murphy
Murphy might be the oddest case on the ballot. His career is marked by great heights and great depths with no middle ground. For much of the 1980s he was one of, if not the best player in baseball winning back to back MVP awards in '82 and '83. That '83 season saw him join the 30-30 club (at least 30 homers and stolen bases in the same season) at a time when there were very few members. From 1980 through 1987 he hit 36 homers or more 5 times, leading the league twice, and drove in 100+ runs 5 times, also leading the league twice. He batted .280 or better 5 times, twice breaking .300. During this stretch he had an OPS+ of at least 121 every season except '81 (101) and at least 140 in 5 of them. He also won 5 gold gloves. He could truly do it all. However, his production fell off a cliff immediately following that stretch. From 1988 through the end of his career his highest marks in home runs, RBI and batting average were 24, 84 and .252, respectively. '88 saw him get an OPS+ of 106, the best mark he would get during this part of his career. He would never again receive any MVP consideration nor win a gold glove. In the blink of an eye, he went from being one of the best players in baseball to being just another guy. His sudden and very sharp decline has turned voters off to him despite the fact that his overall totals aren't terribly different from recent inductee Jim Rice, who played during the same era. His support has been hovering around 11% for years and jumped up close to 15% last year. I don't expect much different this time around.
Rafael Palmeiro
Statistically, Palmeiro is a lock to waltz into the Hall of Fame. By the metrics the kids like to use, he proves to be a compiler on the level of Eddie Murray. Like Murray, also a first baseman, Palmeiro’s counting stats are off the charts. He’s one of only 4 men to have at least 500 home runs and 3,000 hits (Murray, Hank Aaron and Willie Mays the others). When thinking of those numbers the words “first ballot” seems to be a foregone conclusion. However, like others on this ballot (Gonzalez and McGwire), the taint of steroids may have ruined his chances of ever getting into Cooperstown. In case you don’t know, his biggest crime is being caught in a lie. In front of a grand jury he adamantly denied ever having used any PEDs (performance enhancing drugs) besides Viagra, which he was a spokesman for, only to test positive for an anabolic steroid shortly thereafter. His transgression seems worse than guys like McGwire because he was so vehement in his denial. I suspect this is the reason he has not gotten even the same amount of support as Big Mac’s paltry 20%. Curiously, the Supreme Court has decided to not go after him for perjury even though it has pursued cases against Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds with less of a case. It will be interesting to see in which direction his vote total goes. In any event, I can’t see him getting more than 25%.
Mike Piazza
Offensively, it could be argued Mike Piazza was the greatest catcher of all-time. Defensively, not so much. Not surprisingly, his “counting” numbers surpass Bench, Berra, Fisk, etc. Some will point to the era he played in as a reason why. The big number to combat this notion is his career OPS+ of 143, a good deal higher than any of those guys. He was easily the most dangerous catcher of his era, winning the Silver Slugger at his position 10 years in a row. He should be the one slam-dunk, no-brainer inductee since there is no evidence he ever used steroids. However, there is one writer (Murray Chass, google him and Piazza) who’s been saying that Piazza used based on the “fact” that the writer, who once covered the Mets, saw Piazza’s back acne and asserts it disappeared once the players began getting tested. From this, the catcher’s muscular build and home run totals, the scribe surmises Piazza was definitely a user. This seems to place him in Jeff Bagwell territory as a player suffering from unfounded suspicions. I don’t think it will keep him out, but you never know.
Tim Raines
For my money, Rock is the most underappreciated player on the ballot. Leadoff hitters are expected to be catalysts for your lineup. They’re expected to make things happen with the bat and on the base paths. Not only did Raines do this but as best I can tell he’s the second best leadoff hitter of all time. He compares favorably to Hall of Famer and leadoff man Lou Brock across the board. Raines has a higher batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+. Especially for a leadoff hitter OBP is one of the most importants stats and it's where Raines really differentiates himself from Brock. Despite only a 1 point difference in batting average (Raines .294, Brock .293) there is a whopping 42 point discrepancy in OBP (Raines .385, Brock .343). In almost 1000 fewer plate appearances, Raines reached base more times, hit more homeruns, drove in more runs and only scored 31 fewer runs. The one area where it seems Brock has him beat is stolen bases. Brock is 2nd all-time with 938, Raines 5th with 808. Raines still comes out ahead there because he was successful on nearly 85% of his steals, best of anyone in the top 10 who played since they began keeping track of how many times players were caught stealing on a consistent basis (since 1912). Of course, this includes all-time steals leader and Raines' contemporary Rickey Henderson. At 75%, Brock is the lowest in the same group. What’s been keeping him out? Some is just plain ol’ undervaluing his accomplishments and some is backlash for admitted cocaine use. However, the latter didn’t keep Paul Molitor out of the Hall. By the way, playing in the same era as Molly, Raines also has a higher OBP and OPS+ despite a batting average of 12 points less. Raines is a case to watch, though. Support for him seems to be growing. He’s made significant jumps in the voting the last 3 years and should make another this year (48.7% last year). Look for him in the mid to high 50% range. He won’t get in this year, but if the trend continues he’ll really have a chance during the latter half of his HOF eligibility.
Curt Schilling
Here is a very interesting case. Early on, he was one of the game’s best pitchers while toiling in Philadelphia at a time when it was baseball’s equivalent to purgatory. In 2001, he went to Arizona and posted a 22-6 mark with a 2.98 ERA and 293 strikeouts. During the post-season that year, he was even better with a 1.12 ERA, combining with Randy Johnson to terrorize opponents. He would be named World Series MVP after posting a 1.69 ERA in 3 outings against the Yankees. All of this is en route to 216 career wins, with a 3.46 ERA, an excellent 1.137 WHIP and a ERA+ of 127. He also has three seasons of 300+ strikeouts (only Nolan Ryan, Sandy Koufax and Schill’s former teammate Johnson have done it as many as three times). His career total of 3116 is 15th all-time and he ranks 18th with 8.6 whiffs per nine innings. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.383 is 2nd best all-time behind Tommy Bond who played his last game in 1884, five years before the mound was moved back to its current distance from home plate of 60’6”. Still, the story is only half-told. In 2004, his first with the Boston Red Sox he won 21 games and finished second in Cy Young voting. However, the important part happened in Game 6 of ALCS against the Yanks. With his team down 3 games to 2, Schill took the hill on a bum ankle. He pitched seven innings, allowing only one run and finishing with one, now legendary, bloody sock. The Sox won the game and Game 7 to complete a historic comeback from being down 3 games to none. They would then beat the St. Louis Cardinals to win the franchise’s first World Series in 86 years. He would pitch 6 shutout innings in his only start. He was pretty much deified after this. He added to the legend in 2007 when he helped the Sox win another series. A number of injuries kept his numbers from ballooning to true HOF status and he never won a Cy Young. He does have that WS MVP plus the 1993 NLCS MVP, career post-season marks of 11-2 with 2.23 ERA. In games where his team faced elimination (five total), he went 4-0 with 1.37 ERA. and there’s also that bloody sock. That will likely be enough to get him in, at some point, but he’s another guy that didn’t always play nice with the media. Ironically, he’s now one of them. I say he falls just a bit shy this time, but gets in within another year or two.
Lee Smith
If ever a career long relief pitcher could be considered a compiler, Lee Smith is that guy. His Hall of Fame candidacy rests strictly on how much value is placed on his 478 career saves, 3rd most all-time. When Mariano Rivera (even now at over 40 years old), Trevor Hoffman, Dennis Eckersley, Goose Gossage or Dan Quisenberry entered a game you got the feeling that it was over for the other team. I’ve watched a lot of Lee Smith and never once got that feeling. Every outing seemed to be an adventure. Digging into his numbers just a bit appears to bear that out. His career ERA of 3.03, WHIP of 1.256 and walks per 9 innings pitched of 3.4 wouldn’t be great for a starting pitcher but they would all be solid. However, when you’re only sending a guy out there 1or 2 innings at a time to shut the door on your opponent in a close game, those numbers become downright nerve-racking. It was almost a foregone conclusion that he would allow someone on base. To his credit, he was able to wiggle out of lots of jams thanks in large part to being able to strike guys out. His 8.7 whiffs per 9 IP ranks 15th all-time. He’s been hovering around 45% most of his time on the ballot. However, he broke 50% for the first time so his may be a case to watch. This is his 11th year on the ballot, so he may be trending up just in time. Still, I can see him dropping back to 45% just as easily as I can see him going up to 55%.
Sammy Sosa
Here is yet another guy with amazing, but suspicious numbers. Of course, it starts with home runs. His career total of 609 is 8th all-time. More important than that is the way he got there. Starting with the magical 1998 season, during which he was credited with helping to “save” baseball and won the NL MVP, he hit at least 63 dingers three times in four years. The one year he didn’t, he hit “only” 50 and was ironically the first time he led the league. In 2002, he would lead the league again with 49 homers, giving him five consecutive seasons with at least that many and an astounding 292 home runs over that period. Lost in all this is that before ’98, he was actually a dual-threat, registering two 30-30 seasons and four seasons of at least 25 homers and 22 stolen bases. Starting in 1995, he would finish top 10 in MVP voting for 9 years in a row, winning 6 Silver Sluggers during that stretch. But what about the steroids? Like with most of these guys, the facts are kind of murky and his defense is almost comical. During the same 2005 grand jury hearing in which McGwire wiggled out of things by claiming not to be there to talk about the past and Palmeiro told everyone a bold faced lie, Sosa gave his denial through an interpreter. If you follow the sport at all, you probably know that Sosa was born in the Dominican Republic and is a native Spanish speaker. However, by ‘05, we all knew that he spoke and understood English very well having given I don’t know how many interviews over the years. Yet, he was sitting there as if he would have no clue what was going on if not for his trusty interpreter, who listened to Sammy give a denial in his native tongue then translated it to English for the rest of us. It felt like a charade. Then in 2009, the New York Times reported that in a round of tests given in 2003 to gauge how much steroid usage was going on before baseball’s new drug policy went into effect, Sosa had tested positive for a performance enhancing drug. Major League Baseball was supposed to keep the list of players failing the test confidential (and/or destroy it), but claimed to not have a copy. Allegedly, the players union does, as well as the US government, but refuses to confirm or deny who is on it. Add a corked bat incident (a busted bat during a game revealed cork, he maintained the bat was only meant to be used during batting practice but he mistakenly picked it up for this particular game). What does this mean for Sammy’s chances of getting into the Hall? It means, he’s likely to not get in this year, at least. Ranking lower than Bonds and Clemens historically speaking, I suspect he’ll get less votes than both. Like them, he’ll have to wait and see if, and possibly when, the BBWA’s collective stance softens on players associated with steroids.
Then, there’s this…
Alan Trammell
Like Raines, Trammell is an underappreciated player. Along with former teammates Lou Whitaker, Jack Morris and the immortal Kirk Gibson he’s fallen into the abyss that’s ensnared many players who made their mark from the mid-1970s through the 1980s. Their counting numbers pale in comparison to players from other eras. While more offense-friendly than the mid to late 60s, it was still not what we would consider a hitters’ era. He also had the misfortune of playing in the AL during the same time as Cal Ripken Jr. and Robin Yount. He was just a shade below either of those guys and didn’t amass their totals. With four gold gloves he was quite respected as a fielder but he wasn’t performing the wizardry that Ozzie Smith was during the same era. The fact is he was one of the three best shortstops in baseball for a good stretch. He hit for power and average at a time when the vast majority of players at his position did neither. By the way, for you metrics buffs his numbers are very similar to Ripken who was a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer (I know, lots is due to Rip’s “importance” to the game, something that Trammell just doesn’t have). Ripken had a .276 BA, .340 OBP, .447 SLG, .778 OPS, 112 OPS+. Trammell: .285 BA, .352 OBP, .415 SLG, .767 OPS, 110 OPS+. Hmmm. I think he should be in, but it doesn’t look good. This is his 12th year on the ballot. His support has been growing slowly in recent years but enjoyed a very healthy bump last year (from 24.3 to 36.8%). Look for him to get his highest percentage yet, but that will only be into the mid to high 40% range.
Larry Walker
While Bagwell’s case is interesting, Walker’s is even more so, the most compelling case on the ballot outside of the two gorillas in the room (Bonds and Clemens). There are no suspicions of steroid use that I'm aware of but many contend that Walker’s numbers are juiced, nonetheless. He played much of his career with the Rockies before the humidor. For the uninformed so many homers were hit in Coors Field the Rockies started storing balls in a humidor at the home stadium in 2002 to make them harder to hit out. It actually worked. Before this, saying a guy played for the Rockies then saying he hit a lot of home runs seemed redundant. Walker’s supporters seem to hang their hat on one number: 140. That’s his OPS+. It’s the most eye-popping stat he has because OPS+ is ball-park adjusted. With the average player being 100, it suggests that he was a monstrous 40% better than the average player regardless of venue. However, that alone is a flawed stat as any individual statistic is bound to be. If nothing else, it’s flawed because OPS+ is derived from a player’s regular OPS which heavily favors power hitters. His “counting stats” nor his Black Ink and Gray Ink marks are enough to say he’s Hall-worthy. Adding his counting stats to his metrics however, says he is. He’s in the top 20 all-time in SLG and “regular” OPS and top 100 in batting average, OBP, runs scored, total bases, doubles, homers, RBI, runs created, extra base hits and yes, OPS+. Detractors will point to the difference between his performance in Coors Field and games played elsewhere. At Coors, he hit .381 with a .710 SLG and averaged 42 HR and 141 RBI per 162 games. At all other stadiums those numbers are .282, .501, 27, 92. That nearly 100 point difference in average and over 200 point difference in SLG is alarming. His numbers outside of Coors, and during a hitter’s era, scream Hall of very good, but not Hall of Fame. In Coors, he looks like one of the best players of all time. Are the splits too big to vote for him? That’s the question voters face. I lean towards him not getting in, but I don’t have a vote. Even then, people should note there is some precedence here. Hall of Famer Wade Boggs is widely revered as an all-time great hitter. He spent a large chunk of his career in Boston and batted .369 in hitter-friendly Fenway Park, .306 elsewhere. .306 is still outstanding, but the luster of his career .328 BA wears off. It pales in comparison to fellow slap-hitter Rod Carew’s .328 because Carew was remarkably consistent hitting .333 at home and .323 on the road. HOF pitcher Don Drysdale spent his entire career with the Dodgers. At home he had .606 winning percentage with a 2.53 ERA and a WHIP of 1.083. On the road his winning percentage was .508 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.219 WHIP. Almost a full run difference in ERA is huge, especially considering he played in a pitcher-friendly era. Like I said, Walker is an extremely interesting case and will be for quite some time. He received 23% of the vote last year and I expect him to come in at around 25% this year.
David Wells
With the possible exception of Sammy Sosa, Wells has the most colorful personality on the ballot. He was truly a character of the game. He said what he wanted, got into off-the-field scrapes, professed his love for, and apparently tried to eat like, Babe Ruth. He even went so far as to pitch a game while wearing a cap autographed by none other than the Sultan of Swat. He also has a better case for that Hall than you might think. His 239 career wins (57th all time) doesn’t scream HOF, but his .604 winning percentage puts him ahead of Hall of Famers Tom Seaver, Stan Coveleski, Walter Johnson, Herb Pennock, Warren Spahn and Bob Gibson. He’s also better than the soon to be inducted Tom Glavine and fellow first timer on this year’s ballot, Curt Schilling. He was also a very good post-season pitcher posting a 10-5 record and a 3.17 ERA (almost a full run better than his regular season ERA). Truth told, you’d be hard pressed to keep him off the list of the 20 best southpaws in the game’s history. Alas, that will not be enough. First off, wins are decreasing in value as a stat and he just doesn’t have enough of them to offset the decline. Next, his career ERA is 4.13. It’s still better than average for his era (his ERA+ 108), but not by much. Besides, no Hall of Fame pitcher has an ERA over 3.80. It can be argued he was one the better pitchers in the game for a 9 year stretch. However, he only had 3 seasons, 1998, 2000 and 2002, that you could argue even approached dominance. He only received any Cy Young votes at all in ’98 and ’00, finishing 3rd both times. Wells won’t get in, nor should he, but he should garner enough support to stay on the ballot.
This is a much stronger ballot than last year’s, but it also comes with more ethical dilemmas. With this class, we’re forced to confront the steroid issue in a more direct manner than ever before. In addition to Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro, both already on the ballot, there’s newcomers Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa. All three men carry numbers that not only would normally mean they’ll be no-brainer inductees, but arguably rank them among the absolute best players to ever step on the diamond. In addition to steroid allegations, none of these guys seems to be particularly liked by the people who vote for the Hall of Fame.
Aside from those guys, there are a number of guys whose support has been growing over the years, such as Jeff Bagwell, Jack Morris and Tim Raines. We also have a couple newcomers whose qualifications have been heavily debated over the last year or so (Biggio and Schilling). Hmm…
Let’s get rolling.
To remain on the ballot going forward a player must be named on at least 5% of the ballots. These players will probably not make that minimum: Jeff Cirillo, Royce Clayton, Jeff Conine, Reggie Sanders, Aaron Sele, Mike Stanton, Todd Walker, Rondell White, Woody Williams.
These players may manage to stay on the ballot, but are no real threat to ever get into the Hall: Sandy Alomar Jr., Steve Finley, Shawn Green, Ryan Klesko, Don Mattingly, Bernie Williams.
There are players listed below I don’t think will ever make it, either. However, these are first timers who have cases I find interesting.
The rest of the ballot (alphabetically):
Jeff Bagwell
Bagwell presents us with one of the more interesting cases on the ballot. He was one of the game’s very best players for roughly a decade. He snared an NL Rookie of the Year and an MVP in the process. The raw numbers are very good, but not necessarily HOF caliber for a first basemen: 2314 H, 449 HR, 1529 RBI, 202 SB. It’s in the metrics where his case is made. They’re eye-popping: .408 OBP, .540 SLG, .948 OPS, 149 OPS+. Indeed, a number of people have him ranked as one of the five or seven best to ever to play his position. I once said I don’t think he’s HOF worthy. I’ve come around on that. Jeff Bagwell should be in the Hall of Fame. However he will not be, at least not this year. He had the misfortune of having a body builder’s physique during the steroid era. There has been some speculation that Bags is a juicer. Without anything more than his muscular build to go on, the voters have been softer on him than some others and he managed to get 41.7% of the votes in his first year on the ballot and a healthy bump up to 56% last year. Expect a leap into the 60s, but he may still be a year or two away from induction.
Craig Biggio
Making one of the oddest transitions in baseball history, Biggio was a catcher who played some outfield the first few years of his career before become a full time second baseman who would go on to win 4 Gold Gloves in his new spot. He’s also the only player to ever be an All-Star both behind the plate and at second. Like most, it’s his bat that has him in serious consideration for induction. He was double-machine, ranking fifth all time with 668. He also stole plenty of bases and hit the occasional homer. The number that jumps off the page is his career total of 3060 hits. The way he got to that number seems to make him one of the dreaded Cs – a compiler. After all, he didn’t get the magical 3000th hit until he was 41 years old, his last season in the majors. He never led the league in any batting category other than doubles (three times), unless you count getting hit by pitches which he did five times and is second all-time with 285. He never got 200 hits despite constantly being near the very top of the league in at bats and overall plate appearances. He also never hit more than 26 home runs or had more than 88 RBI. His career BA of .281 is among the lowest of the 3000 hit club, as he only broke .300 four times in 20 seasons with just 2 top 10 finishes. His metrics are good, but don’t inspire eyeballs to pop out. A career 112 OPS+ attests to that. On top of that, he was rarely, if ever the best player on his team and many rank him behind Roberto Alomar and Jeff Kent whose careers overlap with his at the same position. Still, there is that magical number: 3000. Also, even if he is behind Alomar and Kent, there are plenty who place him among the 12 best to ever play second base. I think that will likely be enough to carry the day for Biggio, making him an inductee after just one time on the ballot.
Barry Bonds
The numbers speak for themselves. Instead of rehashing all of them, just say that the only people who have comparable numbers are named Ruth, Aaron and Mays. For Bonds it’s all about whether or not people will vote for a guy not only suspected of steroid use but was actually convicted by a grand jury of, at the very least, working pretty hard to keep it a secret whether he used or not (obstruction of justice). In reality, it’s not even a secret that he used, just whether it was intentional, or not. He admitted to “unknowingly” using them by trusting that what his trainer was giving him was on the up and up. What makes Bonds’ case even stickier is when he allegedly began to use. By most accounts this was at the very earliest, after the 1998 season. Bonds had always been the surly type that baseball writers didn’t like, but by that point they conceded he was already a sure-fire Hall of Famer. Not only had he joined the 30-30 club a few times over (at least 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in the same season), he was one of the few to make the 40-40 club. In fact, he had become the only member of the 400-400 club. He would eventually reach over 500 in both homers and steals, the only player to accomplish that feat. He consistently hit .300 and often led the league in OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+. He also had already won 3 MVPs. In 2001 he began a stretch of seemingly superhuman feats beginning with a record 73 homers that year and even more astronomical rate numbers. He would go on a run of four straight years with at least a .328 BA, 1.278 OPS and .515 OBP, including an unheard of .609 in ’04 (he drew a record 232 walks that year) and an OPS+ not below an even less heard of 231. He won the MVP all four years bringing his career total to 7. Is the fact he was so good before we think he started using enough to get him in? Do the ridiculous numbers after that point in time help or hurt his cause? It’s hard to say how many votes I think he’ll get but I’m fairly certain enough voters will decide to “send a message” by not voting for him and keep him out, especially given the fact Bonds was never one to “play nice” with the media.
Roger Clemens
If Bonds’ numbers place him among the best handful of players in the game’s history then Clemens is his pitching counterpart. At the time he recorded his 350th win, Warren Spahn was the only other post World War II pitcher to have as many victories (Greg Maddux would shortly join this exclusive club). He was no mere compiler, either. His mantle proves it with 7 Cy Young Awards and a rarity for a pitcher: an MVP. He also won the ERA title 7 times and is 3rd all-time in strikeouts. Also like Bonds, many believe there is a clear line of demarcation noting the point at which he became other-worldly. That appears to be between the 1996 and 1997 seasons when the Boston Red Sox let him become a free agent without much of a fight, believing his best days to have been long behind him. Clemens promptly showed up in Toronto and won back-to-back Cy Young Awards, giving him five to go with the three he won in Bean Town. He would add one with the Yankees and one in the NL with the Astros at ages 38 and 41, respectively. Also like Bonds, Clemens was indicted by a grand jury on suspicions of having lied to them about his steroid use. Where he differs from the slugger is that he was exonerated on all counts against him. It’s not necessarily the case that the voters believe him any more than they do Bonds. Naysayers note that the government just didn’t have enough evidence and didn’t get the testimony they expected from witnesses such as fellow pitcher and admitted user Andy Pettitte. Clemens has also grown more and more ornery with the media over the years, but it’s nice to have that feather of acquittal in his cap. Again, because of that whole “making a statement” deal, I’m not sure Clemens will be elected to the Hall this time around. I won’t be surprised either way it goes. Since I’m predicting I’ll say he comes up short. It’s possible he comes up way short. In any event, I think he’ll manage more votes than Bonds.
Julio Franco
Franco is one of those guys who played so long, people started to believe he was Hall of Famer mostly because he’d been around so long. After all, he must’ve been one of greats if he managed still be a solid at the plate near age 50, right? Years earlier he did have a stretch where he was among the best contact hitters in the game, finishing in the top in BA four times and winning a batting title in 1991. He finished with a career BA of .298 despite playing until he was 48 years old. He even batted .309 at age 45, the last season in which he would get at least 300 AB. Aside from that, there really isn’t much to go on. He was largely a singles hitter who stole bases early in his career, but didn’t run much after that ’91 campaign. This is a bit problematic since he played another 16 years. Despite the high BA and 23 years of service he didn’t get very close to 3000 hits (2586). He played multiple positions but wasn’t amazing anyone regardless of where he took the field. The Hall of Pretty Good seems to be his destination. Look for him to get enough votes to stay on the ballot, but that’s about it.
Roberto Hernandez
Hernandez is one of two new closers on this ballot. For roughly a decade, from 1992 to 2002, he was one of the game’s best, finishing in the top 10 in saves eight times while posting ERAs under 3.00 six times and an ERA+ of 150 or better eight times. From then on, he was a setup man with varying degrees of success from season to season. I don’t think he gets in, but he may surprise some with how much support he gets. I’ll hazard a guess and say about 15%.
Kenny Lofton
Kenny Lofton hit for average (.299 career BA), was a dominant base stealer early on (622 career swipes is 15th all time, he led the league five times) and played a fabulous center field (four Gold Gloves). He was also a key cog on some really good Cleveland Indians teams. After leaving there during the 2000 season, he bounced around through 2007 and was merely okay. His best stretch, those Cleveland days, had him as a borderline HOF candidate. The rest of his career wouldn’t approach even this status. Don’t be surprised to see him get 20% of the vote. However, I think he’s destined to hover in the 15-25% range for his entire 15 years on the ballot.
Edgar Martinez
If ever there really was a “professional hitter”, Edgar Martinez was it. He became an everyday player in 1990 but rarely took the field after 1994 (he played until 2004). From then on, he was the Seattle Mariners daily DH. As such he’s put up some impressive numbers. He ranks in the top 70 all time in doubles, walks, runs created, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ and has a .312 career batting average (won two batting titles). Considering there are over 200 players in the Hall, top 70 in any category is nothing to sneeze at. However, the knock on Martinez is that he didn’t play the field. In over 2000 career games he had to use a glove other than a batting glove in fewer than 600, less than 30% of his time in the bigs. How do you vote on such a guy? We could say he is the best career DH of all time, but how big is the class you’re comparing him to? Not very. This has reflected poorly on his candidacy. Being a bad fielder is something that’s historically been overlooked, but hardly ever playing the field is another matter. His offensive production says he should be in. His brief voter history says he will not, at least not yet. In his first three years on the ballot, he’s hovered in the mid-30% range (36.5% last year). Maybe he inches closer to 40%, but I don’t anticipate anything more.
Fred McGriff
The Crime Dog presents another interesting case. For a decade he was one of the most feared left handed power hitters in the game. However, it didn’t quite translate into HOF caliber numbers. His “counting” stats fall just below the benchmarks that make voters giddy and his metrics aren’t gaudy enough to get the stat-geeks all worked up. McGriff didn’t win many awards either. He has an All Star game MVP and 3 Silver Slugger awards over a 19 year career. He seems destined for the Hall of Very Good, not quite Cooperstown. Expect him to be in that 25% range when the voting comes out.
Mark McGwire
If you’re reading this you already know that Big Mac probably isn’t getting in the HOF due to his association with steroids. More interesting to me is that I’m not so sure he should be in even if roids never entered the picture. He hit a ton of homers and drew a ton of walks giving him an excellent OBP and SLG but didn’t seem to do much else. Some would argue that’s enough. I don’t think so. It’s remarkable that he hit 50+ homers four times including 65 or better twice. He hit 40 or more two other times. He finished in the top 5 in that category 9 times (one other top 10 finish) and is 10th overall yet never won an MVP and only three Silver Sluggers. One reason is despite playing in a hitter’s era, he only hit .300 once in any season in which he had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Another is that lots of those homers seem to be empty shots (solo blasts) or, better yet, speak to the idea he had no other way of driving runs in. In general, guys that hit a fair number of homeruns are ranked all time within 10 or 20 spots in homers and RBI. For instance, Fred McGriff is 26th in homers and 42nd in RBI. Edgar Martinez is 123rd and 124th, respectively. Jeff Bagwell, 36th and 46th. Like I mentioned, Mac is 10th in homeruns. However, he’s only 67th in RBI. That’s a discrepancy going the wrong way. It seems, to me at least, that for a guy with a high OBP, lots of homers and the 8th best SLG of all time he didn’t help his teams as much as you would think. WAR (wins above replacement) seems to bear that out as he only finished top 10 in that category 3 times (According to the formula used by baseball-reference.com). Now add back in the steroids which, even if they don’t help you hit homers (which I disagree with, by the way) undoubtedly helped him remain healthy enough to play since he suffered from a number of injuries including a normally debilitating back problem. One would think he would’ve gotten a little bump in votes since he owned up to the roid use before taking the St. Louis Cardinals’ hitting coach job last year but his voting percentage actually went down form the year before (19.8% to 19.5%). Maybe he busts 20% this year.
Jose Mesa
Here is our other new closer. Mesa actually spent the early part of his career as a below average starter with an ERA consistently well over 4.00, a WHIP above 1.400. In 1994, the Indians made him a reliever. In ’95, he became the closer and posted a 1.13 ERA with a league-leading 46 saves. After that he was sporadic, but did have an interesting five year stretch from 2001 through ’05 where he would finish in the top 10 in saves 4 more times (7 times overall). This is his best run and is too short for a true HOFer. However, he may get some support for his 321 career saves, only 5 behind Hernandez. Still, I don’t think it will be enough to keep him on the ballot.
Jack Morris
Morris is in a precarious spot concerning his HOF candidacy. He’s been on the Bert Blyleven path to enshrinement, getting a few more votes and plenty of articles written about how he should be voted in every year. This is his 14th season on the ballot which gives him only two more chances including this one. However, he’s hitting a snag Blyleven didn’t. Starting this year there will be a slew of big name high quality starting pitchers on the ballot. New to the ballot this time around are Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling and David Wells. 2014 will see sure fire first balloter Greg Maddux, one of his rotation mates and fellow 300 game winner Tom Glavine as well as Mike Mussina. Any or all of these guys could possibly take votes away from Morris. There are also a bevy of Hall-worthy position players in both years. The good thing for Morris is his take of the vote has been steadily climbing. He was named on two thirds of last year’s ballots. This means he needs less than a 10% increase for induction. Working in his favor, here are that votes lost by the controversial Clemens may wind up in Morris’ lap. It also helps that Bert Blyleven was inducted two years ago, mainly on the strength of similar media and sabermetric campaigns supporting his candidacy. In addition, Morris really was considered one of his era’s best pitchers during his playing days, despite never winning a Cy Young, while Blyleven was always considered good, not great until recently. Morris also has some legendary post-season performances to draw on. This is a hard case to predict but I say he gets a healthy jump and inches across the finish line in the mid to high 70s.
Dale Murphy
Murphy might be the oddest case on the ballot. His career is marked by great heights and great depths with no middle ground. For much of the 1980s he was one of, if not the best player in baseball winning back to back MVP awards in '82 and '83. That '83 season saw him join the 30-30 club (at least 30 homers and stolen bases in the same season) at a time when there were very few members. From 1980 through 1987 he hit 36 homers or more 5 times, leading the league twice, and drove in 100+ runs 5 times, also leading the league twice. He batted .280 or better 5 times, twice breaking .300. During this stretch he had an OPS+ of at least 121 every season except '81 (101) and at least 140 in 5 of them. He also won 5 gold gloves. He could truly do it all. However, his production fell off a cliff immediately following that stretch. From 1988 through the end of his career his highest marks in home runs, RBI and batting average were 24, 84 and .252, respectively. '88 saw him get an OPS+ of 106, the best mark he would get during this part of his career. He would never again receive any MVP consideration nor win a gold glove. In the blink of an eye, he went from being one of the best players in baseball to being just another guy. His sudden and very sharp decline has turned voters off to him despite the fact that his overall totals aren't terribly different from recent inductee Jim Rice, who played during the same era. His support has been hovering around 11% for years and jumped up close to 15% last year. I don't expect much different this time around.
Rafael Palmeiro
Statistically, Palmeiro is a lock to waltz into the Hall of Fame. By the metrics the kids like to use, he proves to be a compiler on the level of Eddie Murray. Like Murray, also a first baseman, Palmeiro’s counting stats are off the charts. He’s one of only 4 men to have at least 500 home runs and 3,000 hits (Murray, Hank Aaron and Willie Mays the others). When thinking of those numbers the words “first ballot” seems to be a foregone conclusion. However, like others on this ballot (Gonzalez and McGwire), the taint of steroids may have ruined his chances of ever getting into Cooperstown. In case you don’t know, his biggest crime is being caught in a lie. In front of a grand jury he adamantly denied ever having used any PEDs (performance enhancing drugs) besides Viagra, which he was a spokesman for, only to test positive for an anabolic steroid shortly thereafter. His transgression seems worse than guys like McGwire because he was so vehement in his denial. I suspect this is the reason he has not gotten even the same amount of support as Big Mac’s paltry 20%. Curiously, the Supreme Court has decided to not go after him for perjury even though it has pursued cases against Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds with less of a case. It will be interesting to see in which direction his vote total goes. In any event, I can’t see him getting more than 25%.
Mike Piazza
Offensively, it could be argued Mike Piazza was the greatest catcher of all-time. Defensively, not so much. Not surprisingly, his “counting” numbers surpass Bench, Berra, Fisk, etc. Some will point to the era he played in as a reason why. The big number to combat this notion is his career OPS+ of 143, a good deal higher than any of those guys. He was easily the most dangerous catcher of his era, winning the Silver Slugger at his position 10 years in a row. He should be the one slam-dunk, no-brainer inductee since there is no evidence he ever used steroids. However, there is one writer (Murray Chass, google him and Piazza) who’s been saying that Piazza used based on the “fact” that the writer, who once covered the Mets, saw Piazza’s back acne and asserts it disappeared once the players began getting tested. From this, the catcher’s muscular build and home run totals, the scribe surmises Piazza was definitely a user. This seems to place him in Jeff Bagwell territory as a player suffering from unfounded suspicions. I don’t think it will keep him out, but you never know.
Tim Raines
For my money, Rock is the most underappreciated player on the ballot. Leadoff hitters are expected to be catalysts for your lineup. They’re expected to make things happen with the bat and on the base paths. Not only did Raines do this but as best I can tell he’s the second best leadoff hitter of all time. He compares favorably to Hall of Famer and leadoff man Lou Brock across the board. Raines has a higher batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+. Especially for a leadoff hitter OBP is one of the most importants stats and it's where Raines really differentiates himself from Brock. Despite only a 1 point difference in batting average (Raines .294, Brock .293) there is a whopping 42 point discrepancy in OBP (Raines .385, Brock .343). In almost 1000 fewer plate appearances, Raines reached base more times, hit more homeruns, drove in more runs and only scored 31 fewer runs. The one area where it seems Brock has him beat is stolen bases. Brock is 2nd all-time with 938, Raines 5th with 808. Raines still comes out ahead there because he was successful on nearly 85% of his steals, best of anyone in the top 10 who played since they began keeping track of how many times players were caught stealing on a consistent basis (since 1912). Of course, this includes all-time steals leader and Raines' contemporary Rickey Henderson. At 75%, Brock is the lowest in the same group. What’s been keeping him out? Some is just plain ol’ undervaluing his accomplishments and some is backlash for admitted cocaine use. However, the latter didn’t keep Paul Molitor out of the Hall. By the way, playing in the same era as Molly, Raines also has a higher OBP and OPS+ despite a batting average of 12 points less. Raines is a case to watch, though. Support for him seems to be growing. He’s made significant jumps in the voting the last 3 years and should make another this year (48.7% last year). Look for him in the mid to high 50% range. He won’t get in this year, but if the trend continues he’ll really have a chance during the latter half of his HOF eligibility.
Curt Schilling
Here is a very interesting case. Early on, he was one of the game’s best pitchers while toiling in Philadelphia at a time when it was baseball’s equivalent to purgatory. In 2001, he went to Arizona and posted a 22-6 mark with a 2.98 ERA and 293 strikeouts. During the post-season that year, he was even better with a 1.12 ERA, combining with Randy Johnson to terrorize opponents. He would be named World Series MVP after posting a 1.69 ERA in 3 outings against the Yankees. All of this is en route to 216 career wins, with a 3.46 ERA, an excellent 1.137 WHIP and a ERA+ of 127. He also has three seasons of 300+ strikeouts (only Nolan Ryan, Sandy Koufax and Schill’s former teammate Johnson have done it as many as three times). His career total of 3116 is 15th all-time and he ranks 18th with 8.6 whiffs per nine innings. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.383 is 2nd best all-time behind Tommy Bond who played his last game in 1884, five years before the mound was moved back to its current distance from home plate of 60’6”. Still, the story is only half-told. In 2004, his first with the Boston Red Sox he won 21 games and finished second in Cy Young voting. However, the important part happened in Game 6 of ALCS against the Yanks. With his team down 3 games to 2, Schill took the hill on a bum ankle. He pitched seven innings, allowing only one run and finishing with one, now legendary, bloody sock. The Sox won the game and Game 7 to complete a historic comeback from being down 3 games to none. They would then beat the St. Louis Cardinals to win the franchise’s first World Series in 86 years. He would pitch 6 shutout innings in his only start. He was pretty much deified after this. He added to the legend in 2007 when he helped the Sox win another series. A number of injuries kept his numbers from ballooning to true HOF status and he never won a Cy Young. He does have that WS MVP plus the 1993 NLCS MVP, career post-season marks of 11-2 with 2.23 ERA. In games where his team faced elimination (five total), he went 4-0 with 1.37 ERA. and there’s also that bloody sock. That will likely be enough to get him in, at some point, but he’s another guy that didn’t always play nice with the media. Ironically, he’s now one of them. I say he falls just a bit shy this time, but gets in within another year or two.
Lee Smith
If ever a career long relief pitcher could be considered a compiler, Lee Smith is that guy. His Hall of Fame candidacy rests strictly on how much value is placed on his 478 career saves, 3rd most all-time. When Mariano Rivera (even now at over 40 years old), Trevor Hoffman, Dennis Eckersley, Goose Gossage or Dan Quisenberry entered a game you got the feeling that it was over for the other team. I’ve watched a lot of Lee Smith and never once got that feeling. Every outing seemed to be an adventure. Digging into his numbers just a bit appears to bear that out. His career ERA of 3.03, WHIP of 1.256 and walks per 9 innings pitched of 3.4 wouldn’t be great for a starting pitcher but they would all be solid. However, when you’re only sending a guy out there 1or 2 innings at a time to shut the door on your opponent in a close game, those numbers become downright nerve-racking. It was almost a foregone conclusion that he would allow someone on base. To his credit, he was able to wiggle out of lots of jams thanks in large part to being able to strike guys out. His 8.7 whiffs per 9 IP ranks 15th all-time. He’s been hovering around 45% most of his time on the ballot. However, he broke 50% for the first time so his may be a case to watch. This is his 11th year on the ballot, so he may be trending up just in time. Still, I can see him dropping back to 45% just as easily as I can see him going up to 55%.
Sammy Sosa
Here is yet another guy with amazing, but suspicious numbers. Of course, it starts with home runs. His career total of 609 is 8th all-time. More important than that is the way he got there. Starting with the magical 1998 season, during which he was credited with helping to “save” baseball and won the NL MVP, he hit at least 63 dingers three times in four years. The one year he didn’t, he hit “only” 50 and was ironically the first time he led the league. In 2002, he would lead the league again with 49 homers, giving him five consecutive seasons with at least that many and an astounding 292 home runs over that period. Lost in all this is that before ’98, he was actually a dual-threat, registering two 30-30 seasons and four seasons of at least 25 homers and 22 stolen bases. Starting in 1995, he would finish top 10 in MVP voting for 9 years in a row, winning 6 Silver Sluggers during that stretch. But what about the steroids? Like with most of these guys, the facts are kind of murky and his defense is almost comical. During the same 2005 grand jury hearing in which McGwire wiggled out of things by claiming not to be there to talk about the past and Palmeiro told everyone a bold faced lie, Sosa gave his denial through an interpreter. If you follow the sport at all, you probably know that Sosa was born in the Dominican Republic and is a native Spanish speaker. However, by ‘05, we all knew that he spoke and understood English very well having given I don’t know how many interviews over the years. Yet, he was sitting there as if he would have no clue what was going on if not for his trusty interpreter, who listened to Sammy give a denial in his native tongue then translated it to English for the rest of us. It felt like a charade. Then in 2009, the New York Times reported that in a round of tests given in 2003 to gauge how much steroid usage was going on before baseball’s new drug policy went into effect, Sosa had tested positive for a performance enhancing drug. Major League Baseball was supposed to keep the list of players failing the test confidential (and/or destroy it), but claimed to not have a copy. Allegedly, the players union does, as well as the US government, but refuses to confirm or deny who is on it. Add a corked bat incident (a busted bat during a game revealed cork, he maintained the bat was only meant to be used during batting practice but he mistakenly picked it up for this particular game). What does this mean for Sammy’s chances of getting into the Hall? It means, he’s likely to not get in this year, at least. Ranking lower than Bonds and Clemens historically speaking, I suspect he’ll get less votes than both. Like them, he’ll have to wait and see if, and possibly when, the BBWA’s collective stance softens on players associated with steroids.
Then, there’s this…
Alan Trammell
Like Raines, Trammell is an underappreciated player. Along with former teammates Lou Whitaker, Jack Morris and the immortal Kirk Gibson he’s fallen into the abyss that’s ensnared many players who made their mark from the mid-1970s through the 1980s. Their counting numbers pale in comparison to players from other eras. While more offense-friendly than the mid to late 60s, it was still not what we would consider a hitters’ era. He also had the misfortune of playing in the AL during the same time as Cal Ripken Jr. and Robin Yount. He was just a shade below either of those guys and didn’t amass their totals. With four gold gloves he was quite respected as a fielder but he wasn’t performing the wizardry that Ozzie Smith was during the same era. The fact is he was one of the three best shortstops in baseball for a good stretch. He hit for power and average at a time when the vast majority of players at his position did neither. By the way, for you metrics buffs his numbers are very similar to Ripken who was a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer (I know, lots is due to Rip’s “importance” to the game, something that Trammell just doesn’t have). Ripken had a .276 BA, .340 OBP, .447 SLG, .778 OPS, 112 OPS+. Trammell: .285 BA, .352 OBP, .415 SLG, .767 OPS, 110 OPS+. Hmmm. I think he should be in, but it doesn’t look good. This is his 12th year on the ballot. His support has been growing slowly in recent years but enjoyed a very healthy bump last year (from 24.3 to 36.8%). Look for him to get his highest percentage yet, but that will only be into the mid to high 40% range.
Larry Walker
While Bagwell’s case is interesting, Walker’s is even more so, the most compelling case on the ballot outside of the two gorillas in the room (Bonds and Clemens). There are no suspicions of steroid use that I'm aware of but many contend that Walker’s numbers are juiced, nonetheless. He played much of his career with the Rockies before the humidor. For the uninformed so many homers were hit in Coors Field the Rockies started storing balls in a humidor at the home stadium in 2002 to make them harder to hit out. It actually worked. Before this, saying a guy played for the Rockies then saying he hit a lot of home runs seemed redundant. Walker’s supporters seem to hang their hat on one number: 140. That’s his OPS+. It’s the most eye-popping stat he has because OPS+ is ball-park adjusted. With the average player being 100, it suggests that he was a monstrous 40% better than the average player regardless of venue. However, that alone is a flawed stat as any individual statistic is bound to be. If nothing else, it’s flawed because OPS+ is derived from a player’s regular OPS which heavily favors power hitters. His “counting stats” nor his Black Ink and Gray Ink marks are enough to say he’s Hall-worthy. Adding his counting stats to his metrics however, says he is. He’s in the top 20 all-time in SLG and “regular” OPS and top 100 in batting average, OBP, runs scored, total bases, doubles, homers, RBI, runs created, extra base hits and yes, OPS+. Detractors will point to the difference between his performance in Coors Field and games played elsewhere. At Coors, he hit .381 with a .710 SLG and averaged 42 HR and 141 RBI per 162 games. At all other stadiums those numbers are .282, .501, 27, 92. That nearly 100 point difference in average and over 200 point difference in SLG is alarming. His numbers outside of Coors, and during a hitter’s era, scream Hall of very good, but not Hall of Fame. In Coors, he looks like one of the best players of all time. Are the splits too big to vote for him? That’s the question voters face. I lean towards him not getting in, but I don’t have a vote. Even then, people should note there is some precedence here. Hall of Famer Wade Boggs is widely revered as an all-time great hitter. He spent a large chunk of his career in Boston and batted .369 in hitter-friendly Fenway Park, .306 elsewhere. .306 is still outstanding, but the luster of his career .328 BA wears off. It pales in comparison to fellow slap-hitter Rod Carew’s .328 because Carew was remarkably consistent hitting .333 at home and .323 on the road. HOF pitcher Don Drysdale spent his entire career with the Dodgers. At home he had .606 winning percentage with a 2.53 ERA and a WHIP of 1.083. On the road his winning percentage was .508 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.219 WHIP. Almost a full run difference in ERA is huge, especially considering he played in a pitcher-friendly era. Like I said, Walker is an extremely interesting case and will be for quite some time. He received 23% of the vote last year and I expect him to come in at around 25% this year.
David Wells
With the possible exception of Sammy Sosa, Wells has the most colorful personality on the ballot. He was truly a character of the game. He said what he wanted, got into off-the-field scrapes, professed his love for, and apparently tried to eat like, Babe Ruth. He even went so far as to pitch a game while wearing a cap autographed by none other than the Sultan of Swat. He also has a better case for that Hall than you might think. His 239 career wins (57th all time) doesn’t scream HOF, but his .604 winning percentage puts him ahead of Hall of Famers Tom Seaver, Stan Coveleski, Walter Johnson, Herb Pennock, Warren Spahn and Bob Gibson. He’s also better than the soon to be inducted Tom Glavine and fellow first timer on this year’s ballot, Curt Schilling. He was also a very good post-season pitcher posting a 10-5 record and a 3.17 ERA (almost a full run better than his regular season ERA). Truth told, you’d be hard pressed to keep him off the list of the 20 best southpaws in the game’s history. Alas, that will not be enough. First off, wins are decreasing in value as a stat and he just doesn’t have enough of them to offset the decline. Next, his career ERA is 4.13. It’s still better than average for his era (his ERA+ 108), but not by much. Besides, no Hall of Fame pitcher has an ERA over 3.80. It can be argued he was one the better pitchers in the game for a 9 year stretch. However, he only had 3 seasons, 1998, 2000 and 2002, that you could argue even approached dominance. He only received any Cy Young votes at all in ’98 and ’00, finishing 3rd both times. Wells won’t get in, nor should he, but he should garner enough support to stay on the ballot.
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